Buying a home March 11, 2020

New Homes Coming to the Housing Market This Year

The number of building permits issued for single-family homes is the best indicator of how many newly built homes will begin to come to market over the next few months. According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development Residential Construction Report, the number of building permits issued in January was 1,551,000. This is a 9.2% increase from December.

How will this impact buyers?

New inventory means more options. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explained how this is good news for the housing market – especially for those looking to buy:

“More construction will mean more housing inventory for consumers in the later months of this year…Spring months could still be quite tough for buyers since it takes time to convert housing starts into actual housing completions.”

How will this impact sellers?

More inventory means more competition. Yun continues to say:

“As trade-up buyers move into these newly completed homes in the near future, their existing homes will be released onto the market.”

Today, because of the tremendous lack of inventory, a seller can potentially anticipate:

  1. A great sale price on their house as buyers engage in potential bidding wars.
  2. A quick sale as buyers have little inventory to choose from.
  3. Fewer hassles as buyers want to smoothly secure a contract.

Bottom Line

If you’re considering selling your house, you’ll want to list sooner rather than later. This way, you’ll get ahead of this new competition coming to market and ensure the most attention toward your listing and the best price for your house.

Agency News and Awards March 2, 2020

Vikki Garby Featured in Top Agent Magazine

Vikki Garby of Green Team New York Realty will be featured in Top Agent Magazine in the April 20, 2020 National and International issues. This premier real estate magazine has been presenting producing, accomplished professionals in the real estate industry for almost 20 years.  Candidate evaluations are based on production, professionalism, industry and community involvement.

Vikki’s Top Agent Profile

Vikki began her real estate career back in 2005, investing in properties with her husband. At the time she was working in the finance industry. However, after moving back to her hometown of Warwick, she made the transition to full-time real estate agent. Vikki serves residential and commercial clients in Orange County, NY. Her business is almost exclusively repeat and referral clients. Additionally, she often works with investors to purchase multiple properties. Her prior finance experience is quite useful, especially when it comes to commercial transactions. Vikki establishes credibility with her clients through honesty, transparency and straightforward communication.

Vikki’s approach to listing properties

Each property is approached individually. And each campaign is tailored accordingly. Every listing is accompanied by professional photography and immersive documentation. However, commercial and residential properties may require alternative marketing techniques. All properties have online exposure, which can result in buyers. In 2019, Vikki closed over $8.8 million in sales volume. Further, that is based on average property prices ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.

The importance of community

Vikki believes in giving back to her community. She supports and participates in the local Educational Foundation and is President of the Booster Club for her son’s crew team. Furthermore, she contributes to the local high school’s Career Development Program. There Vikki helps with the Job Shadow Program and annual Career Fair. Free time is for spending with her family.

Looking towards the future

Vikki plans on keeping the growth of her real estate business steady. And she looks forward to expanding her presence in the local commercial market. Most importantly, she wants to keep helping people achieve their real estate goals. Because, according to Vikki, “It’s not about the house or the building itself. A home is so much more than four walls and my goal is for my clients to be happy long after they close.”

 

 

 

Housing Market News January 26, 2020

January 2020 Housing Market Update

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the January 2020 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, January 21 at 2 p.m. This first housing market update of the year provides a review of 2019, as well as a look forward.

Click Here to Watch the recording of the live Housing Market Update

National Stats

Housing Market Predictions for 2020

2020 Housing Market Predictions

Influencers in the industry have made predictions as to where the housing market is headed in 2020.  Ken Leon, Global Director of Industry and Equity Research of CFRA Research says there is a strong foundation for the housing market driven by employment growth, higher household income and consumer confidence levels. In addition, he also believes that we’ll start to see millennials beginning to acquire their first homes.  There are more millennial buyers than any other generation right now.

George Ratiu, Senior Economists of Realtor.com sees a mixed bag. Supply of new homes begins to offset inventory. We’ll still be talking about inventory issues, but interest rates remain reasonable as home prices flatten. We’re not seeing that flattening of home prices in our area at this time, but its reasonable to assume the growth of price appreciation will slow in 2020.

Freddie Mac expects interest rates to remain low for the next two years, a good thing.

The Positives

Positive Predictions for the 2020 Housing Market

As shown above, rates are still historically low. It seems like the experts are in agreement that home prices are going to increase, though Realtor.com is the most pessimistic, predicting just a slight increase.  Housing starts (new housing analytic) appear to remain at about 1.3 million. And total home sales look like they may eclipse 6 million, indicative of a very strong 2020 housing market.

The hurdles…

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update for January 2020

The issue of inventory we’ve been dealing with for some time is continuing. And it appears that it will keep on being an issue for at least 2020.

Promising news regarding national delinquency rate

National delinquency rate lowest for Oct in 20 years

This is encouraging news. What lead to the major downturn in the 2007/2008 housing market and kept it at such a low level till 2016 was delinquency. Right now we are basically at 20 year lows as far as loans defaulting. This is a great analytic as it means people, even when it’s difficult, are keeping up with their mortgage payments. A lot has to do with confidence as homeowners see their homes increase in value.

American Debt

American Debt and auto loans

Thought to be a precursor in relation to the housing market; auto debt has doubled in the last 10 years. Even as auto loan debt continues to rise, the percentage of delinquent borrowers is still at a lower than average level and sales remain strong. However, it warrants watching.

 

Local – Combined Stats for Orange, Rockland and Westchester Counties, NYHousing Market Stats for Orange County, NY and surrounding area

Units Sold

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Jan 2020

Broken down into quarters, it’s evident 2017 was the peak, year over year.It’s worth keeping track of these trends.

Average Price

Avg Sales Price for Orange, Rockland and Westchester Counties Jan 2020

Prices are continuing to increase, showing an increase over the last four years at end of 4th quarter.

Ask to Sold Ratio

Housing Market Update Green Team Realty Jan 2020

The last asking price versus what the home sold for. This is softening a bit. The higher the number, the better the sellers market is. As it cools, the better the market becomes for buyers.

Days on Market

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty

We’re seeing days on market coming up, an indication that market is cooling.

Orange County, NY

Units Sold

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty for Jan 2020

As opposed to quarterly format, these graphs show month-to-month variations. You can see where things started to fall off back in the end of 2017. While it could be argued that we’ve been in a cooling off period for almost 2 years, we haven’t seen price follow suit.

Average Sales Price

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty 2020

We have been seeing price increase over the last two years, in comparison to the units sold trend. Geoff reiterated that in his experience, price always lags units sold. Here we’re looking at a two-year lag, but much can be attributed to low inventory.

Ask to Sold Ratio

Housing Market Update Green Team Realty Jan 2020

Days on Market

Housing Market Update Green Team Realty 2020

 

Local – Combined Stats for Sussex, Morris and Passaic Counties, NJ

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty

Units Sold

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty Jan 2020

There is a significantly lower variance for 2019 in units sold.

Average Price

Housing Market Update Jan 2020

Here again, prices are rising, even though units sold is significantly down.

Ask to Sold Ratio

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty for Jan 2020

Average sold to list price ratio is slowing down, a sign that things are cooling off a bit. The higher the number, the hotter the market. The lower, the cooler, and trending towards a buyers market.

Days on Market

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty Jan 2020

These numbers are still holding strong.

Sussex County, NJ

Units Sold

Housing Market Update Jan 2020 Green Team Realty

Per Geoff, these are really the most important numbers to look at. And again, in 2017 the numbers started to decline.

Average Sales Price

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty Jan 2020

Ask to Sold Ratio

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty Jan 2020

Days on Market

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty Jan 2020

So, should you buy or sell a home in 2020?

Housing Market Update from Green Team Realty Jan 2020

If you’re considering buying a home in 2020, it comes down to individual circumstances. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recommends a total debt-to-income ratio below 43% to get a qualified mortgage.

Should you sell your home in 2020? Regardless of the advice here, Geoff says if the time is right for you, the answer is yes!  If you’re a Baby Boomer and you have a place to go to but are waiting to see if the market is going to go a little bit higher, that may not be a game you should be playing. There are too many variables. Lots of stats show the market is entering a cooling off period. In an election year you never know what the impact will be. In other words, the market is about as good as it’s going to get for the foreseeable future!

Click Here to Watch the recording of the live Housing Market Update

Housekeeping Items

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Jan 2020

The next Housing Market Update will be on Tuesday, February 18 at 2 p.m You can sign up at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.

Thank you to our sponsor, REALLY, The Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. And there are no fees on commission exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com

Meet Our Panel for the December 2019 Housing Market Update

Keren Gonen

Our moderator is Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty. Our panelists are Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty.

Carol Buchanan of Green Team New York RealtyWayne Patterson

We also have Carol Buchanan and Wayne Patterson of Green Team New York Realty.

Geoff opened the discussion by asking the panelists how 2020 was starting off for them. What are they experiencing?

Carol Buchanan

Carol began by stating that she has never seen a January this active. She is working with clients who will be listing, buyers who are anxious to purchase. Again, inventory is still low so when a home comes on the market that is nice and priced well, it sells quickly. In January 2019 Carol predicted that 2019 was going to be a strong year. Geoff asked if she has the same sense for 2020. “Absolutely! Positively. No doubt about it,” was Carol’s response. ” 2020 is going to be a very, very strong year in real estate.”  Geoff added that Carol’s predictions have proven to be more correct than anyone else’s he knows, so he always listens to hers!

Wayne Patterson

Geoff then asked Wayne, who has been in the industry a long time, what his take-away was on the stats presented. Wayne replied that what immediately came to mind was that if a buyer is interested, and because inventory is so low, they should have all their ducks in a row. It’s vital to be pre-approved, have all documentation ready to go, etc. Buyers have to be ready to move as there will be competition for homes on the market. “He who makes the offer first, wins!” Sellers who have been waiting to put their home on the market? Wayne’s advice is do it now! It’s going to sell quickly because there is an abundance of buyers.

Geoff’s experience in listing homes is that often people say, “Well, we really don’t have to sell it right now. Maybe we should wait another year because the market might come up another 5 or 6%, money that would come in handy for our retirement.” Geoff asked Wayne his response to that line of thinking. Wayne replied that the homeowner is thinking of selling for a reason. They want to retire and move out of state and alleviate a lot of the expenses that go along with maintaining that home. Taxes, maintenance costs, etc. That money that you think you’re saving by not putting your home on the market now will be spent in the upkeep of the house.  If you’re thinking of selling  in the Spring because you hear that’s the best time, you may have a better chance of selling your home now if it is in good condition and priced well.

Keren Gonen

Keren thinks that 2020 will be even better than 2019 because interest rates have now made it cheaper to buy a house than to rent. It’s been trending this way for awhile, but not everyone has been aware of what’s happening. In Sussex, Keren said, you can rent a home for $1,900, while a mortgage would cost $1,300!  As far as Sellers waiting to list their homes, Keren always advises them to watch Green Team’s Housing Market Update so they can see what the truth is. We bring stats in from various sources; it’s not just our opinion. So when people ask if they should wait for Spring, Keren lets them know she is out with buyers everyday, in the snow, in the freezing cold. And you know when someone is looking for a home in those conditions, they are serious buyers.

In addition, we never know what is going to happen in the future. So if you want to sell and move to a warmer climate, now is the time to do it. Geoff stated it’s good to list now as it also puts you ahead of the competition, when most sellers put their homes on the market. Very often buyers have very definite time constraints. They have to purchase a home by a particular time and couldn’t wait till Spring. And when more inventory comes on the market, there is less competition among buyers and more room to negotiate.

A Global Perspective…

Looking at the DOW, the market is very strong. It looks like the first phase of the US/China  Trade Deal is a done deal and seems to be favorable to the US. The replacement of NAFTA with the new trade deal has now gotten through our Congress, but that was causing some wariness in the business sector. So some things that had been hanging over the economy in 2019 seem to be resolving. However, we are in the midst of an impeachment process and election, so we’ll be watching for the impact.

To Contact our Panelists:

Carol Buchanan:  845-705-9162 or carolbuchanan97@gmail.com

Wayne Patterson: wayne@waynepatterson.com or 845-313-5623

Keren Gonen: 551-262-4062

 We’ll see you on February 18 at 2 p.m.

 

 

Agency News and Awards January 22, 2020

Toni Kreusch Awarded SRS Designation and RENE Certification

Toni Kreusch, with Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty, has been awarded the Seller Representative Specialist (SRS) designation, the premier seller agency designation in the country, as well as the Real Estate Negotiation Expert (RENE) certification, the premier negotiation credential. The SRS and the RENE are conferred by the Real Estate Business Institute (REBI) and are official certifications of the National Association of REALTORS®.

An elite group of real estate professionals

Toni joins an elite group of real estate professionals from around the world who have earned the SRS designation and the RENE certification. All were required to successfully complete comprehensive coursework in seller representation and negotiation as well as demonstrate significant seller representation experience and expertise. In addition, they must subscribe to the REALTOR® Code of Ethics.

A commitment to providing quality customer service

Toni is committed to providing quality customer service. She stays informed about the latest economic trends in order to best understand the market and inform her clients.

The SRS and RENE add depth to my real estate business knowledge. Whether you are buying, selling or just need some guidance, these designations have given me a keen understanding of what it takes to help you achieve your goals through the process, while representing your interests to the fullest.

 

 

 

Buying a home January 6, 2020

3 Benefits to Buying Your Dream Home This Year

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Outside of a strong economy, low unemployment, and higher wages, there are three more great reasons why you may want to consider buying your dream home this year instead of waiting.

1. Buying a Home is a Great Investment

Several reports indicate that real estate is a good investment, topping other options such as gold, stocks, bonds, and savings. Why? Real estate helps build equity, a form of investing for you and your family. According to CoreLogic’s Equity Report,

“U.S. homeowners with mortgages (roughly 64% of all properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of nearly $457 billion since the third quarter 2018, an increase of 5.1%, year over year.”

This means the average homeowner gained approximately $5,300 in equity over the past year. If you want to start building your equity, put your housing costs to work for you through homeownership this year.

2. Mortgage Interest Rates Are Low

The Primary Mortgage Market Survey from Freddie Mac indicates that interest rates for a 30-year mortgage have fallen since November 2018 when they hit 4.94%. In their latest forecast, Freddie Mac expects rates to remain low, leveling out to a yearly average of 3.8% in 2020.

When you purchase a home at a low mortgage rate, it will impact your monthly mortgage payment, giving you the opportunity to buy more house for your money.

3. Investing in Your Family is a Win

There are some renters who haven’t purchased a home yet because they’re uncomfortable taking on the obligation of a mortgage. Everyone should realize that, unless you’re living rent-free with your parents, you’re paying a mortgage – either yours or that of your landlord.

Today, rental prices continue to increase, and when you’re paying your landlord’s mortgage instead of your own, you’re not the one earning the equity. As an owner, your mortgage payment is a form of ‘forced savings’ you can use later in life to reinvest in your family. You can use it for a variety of opportunities, such as saving for your children’s education, moving up to a bigger home, or starting your own business. As a renter, it can be more challenging to achieve those types of dreams without home equity working for you.

Bottom Line

Buying a home sooner rather than later could lead to substantial savings and long-term financial growth for you and your family. Let’s get together to determine if homeownership is the right choice for you this year.

 

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Housing Market News December 17, 2019

December 2019 Housing Market Update

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the December 2019 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, December 17 at 2 p.m. He began the webinar with an overview of National Stats.

National Stats

Good News, Economically…

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

Good news on all economic standpoints, not just real estate!  Economists seem to be pushing back the recession timetable. It doesn’t look as though many people think a recession will be happening in 2020. A few people think we might even see another five years before we have another recession. It may be that the answer lies somewhere in between.

 

Increased Purchasing Power

HMU December 2019

At the end of the day it comes down to monthly cash flow for people. It is almost irrelevant what the price of a house is. It’s much more relevant what it costs on a monthly basis to live in a house.

While prices have increased, mortgage rates have gone down substantially over the last couple of years, making the ability for people to purchase that much greater.

In 2019 there has been a decline in the payment as a percentage of income, meaning that mortgage payment has gone down in relation to income coming in. Another consideration is wage increases. People are making more money over the last few years due to a strong economy. This has led to a sustained positive housing environment. It is now easier and easier for people to buy homes.

 

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

 

Americans are choosing real estate as safest investment

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

What are Americans thinking about home ownership? People perceive home ownership in a positive light with many benefits. Not just financially, but also in terms of family, stability, community, etc. People are thinking it’s even safer to invest in a home than in a savings account.

 

Rental rates are out of control!

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

Rent rates have been out of control. Geoff is an owner of apartment units and it has been very steady. And he finds it remarkable how people will sometimes stay in place and not buy a home. People should jump into home ownership and engage, as there are so many benefits to it. Rent values are increasing, not decreasing.

 

Orange County, NY

 

Units Sold

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

It’s been a mixed bag this year – up some months, down some months. We were up again in November over the past 5 years.. When we have our Housing Market Update in January we’ll be able to look back and review 2019 in its entirety. Geoff has no reason to anticipate any substantial surprises for December.

 

Average Sales Price

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

With the exception of March and August, it’s been up consistently. And there is no reason to believe that the rate of appreciation shouldn’t continue to increase modestly throughout 2020.

 

Ask to Sold Ratio

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update

Ask to sold ratio is the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. It is at a very high ratio. It’s was less than 2% in July, historically a very high number. And even though November dipped down to about 96-1/2%,  it’s still a very good number. We are really talking about historical strength here. Even though there are some ups and downs, historically these are very good numbers.

 

Days on Market

Green Team New Jersey Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

Days on market continues to be low, but it’s ticking up a little now. According to the graph, the lines are converging a little in July and September and it appears to have crossed over in October and. This means that the market is cooling a little, but that’s to be expected.

 

Sussex County, NJ

Units Sold

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update

Still a bit of mixed bag, but not any month was the highest of the last 3 years. In November we dropped below the last 3 years. While not what we want to see, but it is what it is.

 

Average Sales Price

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

Average price is still pretty strong. It took awhile for Sussex County to come around in price appreciation. However, prices seem to be increasing at good level.

 

Ask to Sold Ratio

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

Again, the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. While not as strong as in Orange County, still very strong historical numbers.

 

Days on Market

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update Dec 2019

Sussex is showing a strong market. Again, in November there was crossover, indicating a slight cooling of the market.

 

Housekeeping Items

Green Team Realty HMU sponsored by REALLY

The next Housing Market Update will be on Tuesday, January 21 at 2 p.m You can sign up at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.

Thank you to our sponsor, REALLY, The Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. And there are no fees on commission exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com

Meet Our Panel for the December 2019 Housing Market Update

Keren Gonen

Our moderator is Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty. Our panelist is Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty

Keren has been a consistent panel member, present at each update. Geoff remarked that they’ve been doing this all year long, and it’s been a year of trying to figure out where the market is heading. Yes, it has slowed down, but it’s been a soft landing. It’s been a strong year altogether.

Keren remarked that one of the reasons there were fewer units sold in Sussex County is that there were fewer units listed. Many sellers are deciding to hold on to their houses, on the fence about whether to sell. They want to see what the new year brings, even though their agents are telling them that this is the time to sell. Otherwise they’ll be releasing their property when everyone else is. However, they’re still holding tight.

The other thing she’s noticed is listing prices that are way too high. For example, a house that should have been listed at $200,000 being listed at $250,000 .At that price it just doesn’t make sense and won’t sell. However, the sellers are still holding on. Geoff agreed that there are always overpriced listings. It’s a human condition in any market place. There may be a higher percentage right now. Often people try to hold out for that higher price. He also agreed that lack of inventory is the biggest problem.

Geoff said that the sum total of circumstances hasn’t allowed for rapid increase so maybe there will be a longer sustained recover and rebound to the housing market. Keren is working with sellers who will be listing during the first quarter of the year.

Keren’s parting words of advice:

List your houses now, because we don’t know what will happen!

Geoff agreed that right after the New Year is a great time to get going. It has been a wonderful holiday season with many transactions taking place.

You can contact Keren Gonen at 551-262-4062

By the way, Keren took part in this update from the airport, on her way to a two-week trip to Israel!

We’ll see you on January 21st at 2 p.m.

 

 
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Housing Market News November 24, 2019

November 2019 Housing Market Update

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the November 2019 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, November 19 at 2 p.m. He began the webinar with an overview of National Stats.

National Stats

Total Home Sales

Geoff is looking for the bump locally because nationally it looks like on a year over year basis there was a bounce.  We were down in 2019 through June but then in July there was a little bit of a bounce in the Housing Market through September. It looks as though things are stabilizing a bit. We’ll be watching.

Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Price

In this graphic, the dark blue represents the strongest projections; which states will appreciate at the highest level. Medium blue, where we are, is still very good for price appreciation over the next year or so.

Year-Over-Year Housing Supply

Geoff and panel, prior to the webinar, had been discussing how few homes there were in the market.  Needless to say, you can see that the housing supply year-over-year is tight at best. It is getting better, but is still tight. This subject will be included in the Panel Discussion.

2019 Projected Home Price Percentage Appreciate Going Forward

Looking forward to price appreciation as indicated by some of the thought leaders in the industry. They put out stats that indicate their thinking, and it appears that everyone is looking at a minimum of 2 to 3% price appreciation going forward into 2020. It seems that no one believes this housing market is going to fall apart in any way, shape or form.

Mortgage Rates and Mortgage Rate Projections

Mortgage rate projections beyond where we are now look very much the same.  It does not appear as though projections are really going up or down.

Orange County, NY

Units Sold

Units sold is what Geoff considers the “mother’s milk” of all the analytics on the housing market. The green line represents 2019 and has pretty much been down year-over-year. The red line represents 2018. We only bounced above 2018 three times during the first ten months of this year. However, we’re still at a very high historic level despite the year-over-year decrease.

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price is strong. The difference between this year and previous years in the year-over-year is pretty significant. Looking at just year-over-year appears to be a mixed bag. However, historically a very high pricing market.

Ask to Sold Ratio

Ask to sold ratio is the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. It is still very strong. The higher the line, the closer to 100%, means that sellers have to negotiate less off their last asking price. Again, historically very high points, but nonetheless, appears to be cooling off just a little.

Days on Market

Days on market is pretty much lower, though we do see the green line intersecting with the red last month. That really hasn’t happened previously. Again, another small sign of things cooling off.

Sussex County, NJ

Units Sold

In Sussex County we’re also seeing a mixed bag. The green line is bouncing up and down versus 2018 and 2017.

Average Sales Price

The graph indicates a pretty strong pricing market. Prices are about as good as they’ve been in Sussex in six years. If you’re a seller, it is probably not a bad time to think about putting your home on the market.

Ask to Sold Ratio

Again, the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. This is still very strong. If you’re a seller would you prefer negotiating 2.5 points off your asking price, or almost 6 points? That’s the difference between 20014, 2015 and 2016 and now. Geoff recalls those years as being difficult to get deals done.

Days on Market

Here in Sussex County we don’t see any intersecting lines. Though we have seen some close variances. It is tightening up a bit. We’ll watch to see where that heads.

 

Housekeeping Items

The next Housing Market Update will be on Tuesday, December 17 at 2 p.m You can sign up at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.

Thank you to our sponsor, REALLY, The Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. And there are no fees on commission exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com

 

Meet Our Panel for the November 2019 Housing Market Update

Keren Gonen

Our panelists this month are (left to right): Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty and Carol Buchanan of Green Team New York Realty.

 

 

Our moderator is Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty.

 

 

 

Thoughts on where the Orange County Market is heading in 2020

Geoff asked Carol where she sees the NY market heading. She believes 2020 is going to be an excellent year. Inventory is still down, there’s no doubt about that. However, there are very active buyers out there, looking for a nice home in the price range they can afford. They’ll jump on it right away when they find the right home. Inventory is a bit of an issue. But she thinks as more homes start coming on the market 2020 will be a fabulous year.

Geoff remembered that Carol joined the panel of the Housing Market Update about a year ago. And at that time she said that 2019 would be a strong year, although numbers seemed to be deteriorating. Geoff didn’t know where those numbers were headed at that time. His experience as a real estate professional back in 2004 and 2005, when numbers dipped and didn’t come back for 8 years, had him concerned. However, seeing numbers start to dip 18 months ago and now suddenly playing out and maybe coming back together, is a breath of fresh air. So, Geoff congratulated Carol for “calling it” during that HMU and is happy she’s predicting a good year in 2020.

Thoughts on where the Sussex County Market is heading in 2020

Keren agreed with Carol. She thinks that one issue in Sussex County is that a lot of sellers are hanging on to their houses, just waiting to see what happens. Keren said that all homes priced properly are gone the same week that they’re listed. She took some buyers out the previous Monday to look at some houses. Keren told them if they saw something they liked they needed to jump on it. They said, no, they wanted to look at some other houses. Two days later they came back to her and said they wanted to put in an offer. However, the house already had an accepted offer! She hopes they’ll listen to her advice and not wait to put in an offer the next time they see a house they like.

Pricing a Home Properly is Key

Keren emphasized that it’s important for all real estate agents and sellers to make sure the home is priced properly. If you’re looking to sell right away, let your realtor know that this is what you want to do. If you want to sit on the market, they can do that, too. However, if you want to sell, this is the time to do it. In the spring, everyone else will be listing. Geoff agreed that during his 15 years in the industry the one thing that is always true is you have to price it right. It doesn’t matter if it’s in a down market or an up market or somewhere in between. If you don’t price the property right, it’s not going to sell, for many reasons.

Bank Inventory

Geoff always checks in with Keren on foreclosures. He asked if banks were still holding on to the properties, renting them out, or flipping them themselves. Keren said that banks are starting to release properties. Their only two strategies are: We’re going to list high and see if anyone bites because the house is in good condition. Or, we’re going to list really low and have everyone jump at it. Keren, who buys and flips homes, recently went to see a house. There were ten other people there during the half an hour she was there. The listing agent came back with “highest and best.” She’s sure the house will sell higher than it should have. Because there is not enough inventory listed low for the flippers, they’re all going for it.

Appraisals

Geoff asked if either Carol or Karen was experiencing any problems with appraisals. Carol replied that she hasn’t had much trouble with that. Basically homes are appraising with no problem. Geoff stated that about 2 years ago, when prices started to shift dramatically, there were a lot of problems with appraisals. Fortunately, that problem has gone away rather quickly. However, anytime the market turns on a sharp incline, appraisals will be a problem again. They can prevent buyers from getting the loan they need to move the transaction forward. It can be difficult for appraisers to get the comps. If the comps don’t exist, new deals are coming in higher than the last one and the market’s moving up, appraisers have to take a leap of faith. Many were hesitant to do that as the market hadn’t increased in some time. Now that price appreciation has been going on for some time, it seems to be okay.

Keren said she’s always there at appraisals and always has the comps that she gives to her clients. She also tells the appraiser about everything in the house they may not see. That might be foam insulation, updated electric, something in the basement or a whole house generator. She understands that appraisers add a dollar amount for that. That’s been helping her appraisals come in at the correct price.

Lack of inventory in the sweet spot

Referring to middle of the range pricing, Geoff said it’s surprising to see the lack of inventory. Only approximately 6% of the market is in the sweet spot, whereas there is much more inventory at higher levels. Even more significant is more inventory at lower levels (very inexpensive homes, homes needing lots of work, etc.).  Geoff thought it interesting and finds that as a society we’re moving away from one-income households. Most households are two income. And they just don’t have time to do renovations or be bothered with it. They want a house to be well located and in good condition. Otherwise, most people don’t want too much to do with it. He asked the panelists if they agreed.

The importance to sellers of having a home that doesn’t require buyers to do renovations and repairs

Carol absolutely agreed. She said looks do matter and when you go up to a home that’s nicely landscaped and well maintained, people just jump on it. Most people are looking for a nice home they can put their own finishing touches to, but which is not overwhelming for them. Geoff said there are some interesting business models popping up around the country. Companies are financing renovations to help sellers get out and maximize their home’s value. And they’re not just providing the financing. They’re doing the design, the build and the financing. It will be interesting to see how these models work out in the dense metropolitan areas they are starting out in. There is a real value to this. Some people will simply not buy a home unless it’s in good shape and finished. So, if you’re a seller, if you don’t have the time and money to do the work, this might be an option.

Geoff has seen many agents, both in the Green Team and other agencies, who go out of their way to assist with that process of helping sellers get their home together and renovated. He talked about Keren literally rolling up her sleeves and clearing up a yard. While Keren isn’t able to do that for everyone, it just demonstrates a willingness to help clients get a good result. He gives credit to all the hardworking realtors in the industry who go out of their way to make that happen. Carol agreed with that, too. A lot of realtors go above and beyond. Geoff said that it’s a testimony to the industry and they deserve a lot of accolades.

Geoff’s quote on Real Estate Professionals

We are the grease on the wheels of the housing industry. Without it, people wouldn’t be getting as much money for their homes, or be able to make the moves that they do. You need the grease to keep the wheels turning – and that’s us!

Keren definitely thinks that when your realtor is willing to go the extra mile for you, that’s what really counts. Most of the people she’s bought and sold homes with were actually people she talked to on a regular basis. Whether it was a Facebook or text message, or an invite to a party. It becomes part of your circle. People that you care for, people you spend time with. In the most stressful time of their lives, to be there and hold their hand and let them know everything will be okay, means a lot. For the client as well as to her, because they’ve allowed her into their lives.

One last question: Do you think home appreciation will increase in 2020 vs. 2019?

Keren absolutely thinks so for Sussex County. Houses that possibly last year or the year before listed lower are now listing higher and selling. She’s pretty sure that trend will continue into 2020.

Carol definitely agrees and thinks that values are going up. No doubt about it!

Here’s how to contact our panelists

Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty – 551-262-4062 (cell): Call or Text. You can also Google Keren to find out more about her.

Carol Buchanan, Green Team New York Realty – 845-705-9162 (cell): Call or Text, Or email her at CarolBuchanan97@gmail.com

Thanks to Melissa Bressette, Marketing Director, Green Team Realty, for putting this webinar together.

 

We’ll see you on December 17th at 2 p.m.

 

 

Housing Market News November 10, 2019

August 2019 Housing Market Update

August 2019 Housing Market Update

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed viewers to the August 2019 Housing Market Update. It was held on Tuesday, August 20 at 2 p.m. on Facebook Live.

National Housing Market Statistics

Recession?  So what’s the story?

We’ve all keep hearing the word, and the questions… Is it going to happen?  Is it not going to happen? In Geoff’s view, that’s always up for debate. We know that at some point it is going to happen. Maybe not right now.  However, the question is does a recession lead to a housing crisis?

Based on what he has been hearing from industry experts, Geoff believes that a recession will not lead to a housing crisis. Rather, it appears that the market is normalizing. Over the past three years we’ve been experiencing a super hot seller’s market. Things have been going very quickly. It has not been a normal market, where homes take longer to sell, Prices aren’t dramatically increasing. Things are a little more where we’re headed. Although right now we’re rather hot, looking at numbers and seeing into the future, Geoff does think that things are cooling and we headed towards that more normalized market.

Contrary to the hand-wringing, the U.S. housing market is in fact normalizing, and that is mostly a positive development for the American economy.

Pending Home Sales

This graphic shows pending home sales on a national basis since 2014. It shows the trends, the ups, and downs, including seasonal fluctuations. Usually, we peak in the 2nd and 3rd quarters of each year, which is where we are right now. However, you can see how low we got nationally as opposed to the last 3 or 4 years. Again, this shows that the number of units selling throughout the country is definitely slowing down.

Pending home sales – which represent signed contracts on existing homes, and are therefore considered a leading indicator – have advanced to their best level since mid-2017. New-home sales, also representing signed contracts, have been bumpy in recent months but have climbed about 15% so far this year.

Are Americans planning to buy new homes?

This not-for-profit organization put together this survey on the percentage of Americans planning on buying a new home in the next six months. What they discovered?  Americans are quite bullish on buying homes. In fact, more people are considering buying a home than we saw in 2006, 2007, 2008…

With the numbers gradually increasing, home ownership is still on the forefront of peoples’ minds.

According to the Conference Board, buying intentions for new homes have exploded to levels not seen since before the financial crisis.

The S&P Homebuilder Group

This consolidated group of stocks were compared from June 2018 to June 2019 (in blue). The 30 year fixed year interest rate is in orange. You can see there is a consistent relation with one another. However, even though rates are still low, confidence in gaining in the stocks in the Homebuilder group. It appears that Wall Street is still seeing opportunity for growth and profit in this sector.

The S&P 1500 Homebuilder group has rallied 35% in 2019 to a new 52-week closing high in mid-June.

Housing Affordability Index

This chart shows housing affordability from 1999 to 2019. Historically, at least since 2008, 2009, we were at a low level. Homes are very affordable in terms of what people are able to generate in income through their occupations. Although prices have been rising, it’s still a relatively affordable market, and much of that is due to interest rates

The higher the graph, the more affordable homes are.

It’s more affordable than the normal markets that preceded the Boom and Crash.

Typical Mortgage Payment

In January 2000, the typical mortgage payment was $1,100 because rates were significantly higher.. Now the typical mortgage payment is $910. Prices nationally are at a much higher level. However people are able to buy people are able to borrow at a lower rate, so their payments are less. Most people in the world have to deal with here and now. “I  have to pay my mortgage this month, I have to get my child into camp this month. I’ve got to make college payments this month.”  It’s hard for people to look out further than a month or two or three in advance. So this monthly analytic is very important.

Adjusted for inflation, today’s typical mortgage payment is less than what it was prior to the boom in January 2000.

Part of the reason is wages are up and Interest Rates are still statically low.

Payment as a Percentage of Income

Per Geoff, there is an old adage in real estate which says, “You name the price, I’ll name the terms!”  You want $500,000 for your property? Well, if you are willing to give it to me at a low enough interest rate with a really long amortization term, it will cost me hardly anything to carry on a monthly basis. I can acquire the property, rent it out and achieve much more income that needed to service the debt.

Real Estate is an asset that can be leveraged and therefore the rate at which leverage can be gained is very important. The drop in rates is very significant to this market and where it is headed. If we were in a rising rate atmosphere we would be having a very different conversation.

According to Mark Fleming, First American’s Chief Economist: The difference between buying a home versus other goods is that we buy them with a mortgage. So, it’s not the actual price that matters, but the price relative to the purchasing power.”

Local Housing Market Statistics

Orange County, New York

We’re starting to see an upturn in number of units sold in Orange County. July was the best month we’ve seen in a long time. We had been lagging for a while but

Average sales price continues to increase in Orange County.  There had been a cooling-off period for awhile, but over the last three months there has been a steady increase. 2018 showed a definite increase over prior years, and 2019 shows signs of continuing the upward trend.

The last asking price versus what homes sold at. 98.53% means Seller are only negotiating 1.47 percent off of their asking price. If you are a Seller whose home is on the market and you’re not getting offers, note that this is the last asking price, not the initial. The key is to having a good, competitive asking price. You can’t put your house out there at just any price and expect these kinds of numbers. However, if a home is priced right, you may hit this ratio.

Sussex County, New Jersey

Over the course of a few years we’ve been watching the comparison of the housing market in Sussex County, NY versus Orange County, NY. The numbers are consistently a little lower in Sussex than what we’re seeing in Orange. This is a pretty consistent down trend over 2018 and 2017 and hasn’t gotten above 2018 except for March of this year.

While Geoff does not see this as a steeply declining market, he does think that prices are softening.

This is a very strong number. While not quite as high as Orange County, it is still a very good number. Only 2.4 percentage points off the asking price, much better than it was a few years ago.

Days on Market for Sussex County

Things are definitely moving in Sussex. There are less days on market than in Orange County. It’s a very robust market in Sussex County.

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Meet our Panel

From left to right, Keren Gonen and Pam Zachowski of Green Team Team New Jersey Realty and Toni Kreusch of Green Team New York Realty.

Geoff opened the discussion to comments from the panelists on the information presented.

Low Interest Rates

Keren Gonen began the conversation by noting that interest rates are so low that a lot more people can qualify for mortgages. When the rates are high, many people just can’t make it on a monthly basis. They can’t afford the house they wanted and pay their other expenses and debts as well. Low interest rates not only allow for buyers to make smarter decisions but also to become eligible for financing. This is also causing low inventory. Even though the market has softened a bit, it’s still a seller’s market. When a good house comes on the market it does not stay there for long. Keren sees bidding wars on a daily basis. She tells clients if they love the house, let’s jump on it.  You don’t have to go to asking if the price is ridiculous, but get your foot in the door. The house will not stay. And, when they do not listen, they lose the house.

What is a good house?

Geoff noted that Keren had mentioned “good house.” He went on to describe what he sees as a good house. A house in good condition and well located and there’s a good asking price, it’s going to sell. The old adage is “Location, location, location.” What Keren tells her sellers is to figure out their time line. Do they want to sell right away, or are they willing to let the house sit on the market for a few months? If they want to sell right away, the house needs to be priced to get offers within a week or two. Or do they want to price higher and sit on the market. She leaves the choice to them. Knowing where they stand, what the market is, will help determine what they want to do. Keren believes it is important for agents to educate their sellers and buyers so that they can make the best decisions.

Real Estate – Still a good investment

Pam mentioned she had been listening to Suze Orman in the morning, who was talking about how we were likely going into a recession. However, one thing she pointed out was that real estate was still a good option. She doesn’t anticipate another housing crisis like we had before. She says it’s normalizing and real estate is still a good investment to have. Geoff went on to say that real estate is always a good option. It’s important to make sure you make the right purchase and there’s good logic. If you need a place to live and you’ll be there for at least 3 to 5 years, it doesn’t pay to rent. Even if the market takes a downturn, there are still a lot of advantages to home ownership over renting. He believes that home ownership should be the core of wealth management strategies.

Toni mentioned that for anyone considering buying or selling, home prices are appreciating at a more normal rate right now. And they have been for the last 10 years. With forecasts predicting that with growth continuing at this normal rate and interest rates being low, it is really a great time because you’ll get more money over the life of your loan, and you’ll get more house for your money. Geoff noted that the big takeaway for anyone going to buy a home and planning on living there, you can never really time the market. It’s best to just get in and go for it. Over the course of time your home will appreciate and you will build wealth.

Is low inventory still the major headline for our local markets?

Geoff addressed this question to the panel. Is the lack of inventory a problem for all of the buyers you’re running around, trying to find homes for?  Toni agreed that there is a shortage of houses. Geoff asked if it’s mostly the middle range that is so short, or is it the lower or higher end homes that have low inventory? Pam said there is definitely a shortage of homes for investors. She said it is very hard for people to find that house to flip. Also, she feels there are not enough mid-range houses out there. Buyers are looking but just can’t find what they want.

Toni mentioned that first-time home buyers are competing with investors for those lower-end homes. In the higher-priced market, you have the pick of the house. Geoff agreed that the high end has been dragging nationally for some time now. There seems to be a shift in what people want now. They don’t seem to want big homes, higher taxes and big utility bills. People in general are more concerned with smaller footprints. The panelists agreed with Geoff on these points.

Keren mentioned that she is seeing young buyers heading up to Sussex County where they can afford to own a home with a mortgage less than their rent would be in other areas. Geoff agreed. Here in the northern suburbs from New York City there are amazing places to live. It’s a fraction of the cost of living in the City and some of its immediate surrounding areas.

In summary

We’re still in a very strong market. It will be interesting to see what the future holds. Geoff said that many economists are fearful of the possibility of an impending recession within the next 18-24 months. However ,many people feel that the strong housing market is one reason we may not slip into a recession. Even if a recession happens, perhaps the housing market will be okay.

To get in touch with the panelists for your real estate needs:

Keren Gonen – 551-262-4062

Pam Zachowsky – 201-452-0516

Toni Kreusch  845-283-2450

Join us for the next Housing Market Update

September 17th at 2 p.m. Stay informed! Sign up for our Housing Market Updates at: GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU

Community Support October 31, 2019

November in Orange and Sussex Counties

 

November is a beautiful season here in Orange and Sussex Counties.

The beauty of leaves changing color can still be seen. And, even when skies are gray, it’s a gorgeous backdrop to the red barns and the fields that dot our counties. Of course, November brings many things. Such as Thanksgiving and the inevitable countdown of shopping days until Christmas. Better Homes & Gardens helps you take control of Thanksgiving with this handy time table and recipes. Also, here are 30+ Thanksgiving Menu Ideas from bhg.com. Further, leave it to Martha Stewart to provide us with these gorgeous table settings for Thanksgiving.

Along with all the fun and excitement of the Holiday season comes cold and flu season and a whole lot of stress. BHG.com has tips for strengthening your immune system. And they’re pretty easy to work into our daily lives. Another thing that November brings is leaves. Lots of leaves. Here are some tips from AAA Northeast on Landscaping Fall Cleanup for Your Home.

Places to Go, Things to Do in Orange and Sussex

November 1. Washington’s Headquarters State Historic Site starts its new Fall/Winter hours. It will be open Fridays and Saturdays from 11:00 a.m. to 3:00 p.m. Admission is $4 for adults; $3 for seniors and students. Children 12 and under Free.  84 Liberty St, Newburgh, NY. 845-562-1195.

November 3: 19th Annual Salute to Military Veterans. The tribute consists of a parade highlighting Sussex County’s veterans of all branches of service. There will be military vehicles, civic groups, community and local high school bands. In addition, there will be a reading of essays by local students. Finally, a POW and MIA solemn remembrance will take place with a 21-gun salute. Refreshments will be provided at conclusion of event. 1:00 p.m. Sussex County Fairgrounds, 37 Plains Road, Augusta, NJ.

November 4 – 17 is Hudson Valley Restaurant Week. Enjoy prix fixed meals from some of the County’s finest restaurants.  Here’s the list of participating Orange County Restaurants.  The 3 Course lunch is $22.95 and Dinner, $32.95. Bon appetite!

November 11: Veterans Day

The Broadway musical Hamilton renewed interest in the Revolutionary War. And there are lots of historic sites throughout Orange and Sussex Counties to explore.

Revolutionary War New Jersey has a listing of the many points of interest throughout Sussex County. Orange County Tourism shares a Revolutionary War Tour. With Veterans Day celebrated this month, it’s the perfect time to remember our Nation’s first veterans.

November 9 & 10: Thanksgiving Tasting & Toy Drive at Museum Village. This annual event features tastings of recipes of both the  Pilgrim and Victorian eras, made right on the hearth. Adults: $14. For children ages 4-12 admission is $10, and children under 4 are free. This year Museum Village is asking for donations of unwrapped new toys for the Country Kids Food Pantry. They need gifts for children from 2-16 years old, with a special need for TWEEN toys. Museum Village. 12 p.m. to 5 p.m. 1010 State Route 17M, Monroe, NY. 845-782-8248

November 29 & 30: Love Local Maker Market 2019. Handcrafted gifts by local artists will be available at the Warwick Community Center. In addition, there will be make-and-take ornament stations throughout the market where people of all ages can create their own handmade decorations. There will also be hot drinks and baked goods.  10 a.m. to 6:00 p.m. 11 Hamilton Ave, Warwick, NY.

Wishing you and yours a very Happy Thanksgiving!

 

 

 

 

Buying a homeSelling a Home August 28, 2019

Top Priorities When Moving with Kids

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]According to the Pew Research Center, around 37% of U.S students will be going back to school soon and the rest have already started the new academic year. With school-aged children in your home, buying or selling a house can take on a whole different approach when it comes to finding the right size, location, school district, and more.

Recently, the 2019 Moving with Kids Report from the National Association of Realtors®(NAR)studied “the different purchasing habits as well as seller preferences during the home buying and selling process.” This is what they found:

When Purchasing a Home

The major difference between the homebuyers who have children and those who do not is the importance of the neighborhood. In fact, 53% said the quality of the school district is an important factor when purchasing a home, and 50% select neighborhoods by the convenience to the schools.

Buyers with children also purchase larger, detached single-family homes with 4 bedrooms and 2 full bathrooms at approximately 2,110 square feet.

Furthermore, 26% noted how childcare expenses delayed the home-buying process and forced additional compromises: 31% in the size of the home, 24% in the price, and 18% in the distance from work.

When Selling a Home

Of those polled, 23% of buyers with children sold their home “very urgently,” and 46% indicated “somewhat urgently, within a reasonable time frame.” Selling with urgency can pressure sellers to accept offers that are not in their favor. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR explains,

“When buying or selling a home, exercising patience is beneficial, but in some cases – such as facing an upcoming school year or the outgrowing of a home – sellers find themselves rushed and forced to accept a less than ideal offer.”

For sellers with children, 21% want a real estate professional to help them sell the home within a specific time frame, 20% at a competitive price, and 19% to market their home to potential buyers.

Bottom Line

Buying or selling a home can be driven by different priorities when you are also raising a family. If you’re a seller with children and looking to relocate, let’s get together to navigate the process in the most reasonable time frame for you and your family.

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