Green Team Realty’s June 2020 Housing Market Update addresses the economic impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market. However, we know that many individuals, families, and businesses have been personally impacted by the pandemic. To all those diagnosed with COVID-19, or who have loved ones with the virus, we wish you a fast, full recovery. To all who have lost someone to COVID-19, our thoughts and prayers are with you. And, while there are a lot of positives to report this month, we realize that many are suffering financial hardships, stress, and anxiety. These are very difficult times, but to quote Geoff Green,
Together we will persevere!
GeoffGreen, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the June 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar was held on Tuesday, June 16 at 2 p.m. Geoff shares both national and local stats. Furthermore, he checks in with those who have “boots on the ground.” Sales Associates from Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty share what’s happening in their respective states and communities. There are different regulations for the real estate industry in New York and New Jersey. Thus, there are differing impacts on what is happening in each state. In addition, our guest panelist shares information on the current mortgage market.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:
Meet the “Power Panel”
The June 2020 Housing Market Update panel shared their observations, experiences, and expertise in this Covid-19 market. Keren Gonen and Pam Zachowski with Green Team New Jersey Realty talked about Vernon and the Sussex County NJ market. Carol Buchanan, with Green Team New York Realty, discussed Warwick and the Orange County NY market. Laura Moritz, Director of Sales, Northeast Region at Classic Mortgage LLC shared her experiences with financing and refinancing in a Covid-19 market. Watch the above video to hear what the experts had to say.
Let’s start with the jobs market and overall economy
To see where we were last month, click here for the May 2020 Housing Market Update.
According to CNBC,
The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs surge in US history since 1939.
Over 75% of job losses were temporary layoffs or furloughs. The Federal Reserve Bank’s May report indicated there were news reports of large-scale hiring at companies like Amazon, Walmart, CVS Healthcare, Domino’s Pizza, etc., due to increased demand.
The Wall Street Journal reported:
Employers added 2.5 million jobs, blowing Wall Street expectations out of the water. Economists had forecast a loss of 8.3 million jobs.
And on to the housing market
According to Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates,
Housing will fare better than expected during this severe downturn.
Home prices are expected to continue to appreciate through 2022, according to several respected industry experts.
Mortgage Demand
According to Diana Olick of CNBC,
Mortgage demand from home buyers shows unexpectedy strong and quick recovery… The quick recovery has surprised most forecasters.
Pending sales and new listings are up from the previous month, according to Zillow’s June report. People are becoming more confident in putting their homes on the market than they were in the early days of the pandemic. Foot traffic was practically non-existent.
The percentage of distressed property sales is at a very low number. The projection is that it will continue to decrease, from 4% to 3%. What lead the last downturn in 2008 was that there were so many distressed properties. Another interesting fact is that most American’s choose real estate as the best long-term investment, over stocks, savings accounts, and gold. This is another sign that confidence in real estate is high.
Mortgage rates
Freddie Mac’s projections through 2021 indicate that rates will remain low. The availability of money drives pricing. Despite all the turbulence we’ve been experiencing, things are looking good in the real estate market.
National and Local Stats on Units Sold & Average Sales Price
On the national level, there was a big drop off in units sold in April, compared to the last four years. (National stats lag 30 days behind. We’ll have May stats in the July Housing Market Update). Geoff fully expects the numbers to rise in June, July, and August, perhaps even surpassing previous years’ numbers. Home prices continue to increase, despite the decrease in traffic, a result of supply and demand. There are simply not enough homes available for sale for all the people who want to buy them. Months of inventory is showing an uptick, though we’re still far below having the 6 months of inventory that would indicate a normal market. We are in a seller’s market, with lots of bidding wars and lots of homes selling above asking price.
In Orange County, New York, we have a bounce-back on units sold from April to May. The average sales price is staying level, but at a high level compared to previous years. Supply and demand should keep sales price high. In Sussex County, New Jersey, units sold have been on an upward trend and never really came down. Average price is still up over the past four years.
“Housekeeping” Details:
To reach any of the June 2020 Housing Market Update panelists,
A recent survey by Lending Tree tapped into behaviors of over 1,000 prospective buyers. The results indicated 53% of all homebuyers are more likely to buy a home in the next year, even amid the current health crisis. The survey further revealed why, naming several reasons buyers are more likely to move this year (see graph below):
Let’s break down why these are a few of the key factors motivating buyers to actively engage in the home search process, and the corresponding wins for sellers as well.
1. Low Mortgage Rates
The biggest reason potential homebuyers indicated they’re eager to purchase this year is due to current mortgage rates, which are hovering near all-time lows. Today’s low rates are making it more affordable than ever to buy a home, which is a huge incentive for purchasers. In fact, 67% of respondents in the Lending Tree survey want to take advantage of low mortgage rates. This is no surprise when comparing historic mortgage rates by decade (see below):Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Macrecently said:
“As the economy is slowly rebounding, all signs continue to point to a solid recovery in home sales activity heading into the summer as prospective buyers jump back into the market. Low mortgage rates are a key factor in this recovery.”
2. Reduced Spending
Some people have also been able to save a little extra money over the past few months while sheltering in place. One of the upsides of staying home recently is that many have been able to work remotely and minimize extra spending on things like commuting expenses, social events, and more. For those who fall into this category, they may have a bit more saved up for down payments and closing costs, making purchasing a home more feasible today.
3. Re-Evaluating Their Space
Spending time at home has also given buyers a chance to really evaluate their living space, whether renting or as a current homeowner. With time available to craft a wish list of what they really need in their next home, from more square footage to a more spacious neighborhood, they’re ready to make it happen.
What does this mean for buyers and sellers?
With these three factors in play, the demand for housing will keep growing this year, especially over the summer as more communities continue their phased approach to reopening. Buyers can take advantage of additional savings and low mortgage rates. And if you’re thinking of selling, know that your home may be in high demand as buyer interest grows and the number of homes for sale continues to dwindle. This may be your moment to list your house and make a move into a new space as well.
Bottom Line
If you’re ready to buy or sell – or maybe both – let’s connect to put your plans in motion. With low mortgage rates leading the way, it’s a great time to take advantage of your position in today’s market.
Sol Perry purchased a home in Middletown NY in 2001. And that is probably where his transition to real estate began. An auto body technician for MTA NYC Transit, Sol had lived and still works in New York City. His wife is a nurse practitioner at Bon Secours Port Jervis NY. And she was actually the first real estate agent in the family. From 2004 to 2007 she was an active agent at a brokerage located in Middletown.
Watching Orange County Grow
As a longtime resident, Sol has seen the growth that has taken place in Orange County. And he is familiar with the County and the many towns and cities that comprise it. Throughout the years, he has seen many family members, friends, and co-workers move to the region. Sol was able to give advice about the area, and help with their choices. His familiarity with Orange County, as well as his ability to understand the needs of those he was advising, helped many families make the move.
Making the Decision
After years of helping friends, family, and co-workers, Sol realized that he should actually be their real estate agent. He proceeded to get his license. And he finds that with his life experience, living and working in NYC as well as living in Orange County, he can really help those wanting to make the move.
While Sol started his real estate career at a brokerage in Middletown, he decided that Green Team provided a better opportunity to grow his business. He is excited to be a part of Green Team New York Realty. And he is looking forward to meeting his fellow Green Teamers when the current COVID-19 restrictions are lifted.
For Sol Perry, It’s About Family, Home…and Music
Sol is the proud father of a 5-year-old daughter, who will be starting kindergarten in Middletown in the Fall. In his spare time, he enjoys working on his house. And, one of the things he most enjoys is to D.J.
With stay-at-home orders starting to gradually lift throughout parts of the country, data indicates homebuyers are jumping back into the market. After many families put their plans on hold due to the COVID-19 pandemic, what we once called the busy spring real estate season is shifting into the summer. In 2020, summer is the new spring for real estate.
Joel Kan, Economist at The Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) notes:
“Applications for home purchases continue to recover from April’s sizable drop and have now increased for five consecutive weeks…Government purchase applications, which include FHA, VA, and USDA loans, are now 5 percent higher than a year ago, which is an encouraging turnaround after the weakness seen over the past two months.”
Additionally, according to Google Trends, which scores search terms online, searches for real estate increased from 68 points the week of March 15th to 92 points last week. As we can see, more potential homebuyers are looking for homes virtually.
What’s the Opportunity for Buyers?
Another reason buyers are coming back to the market, even with forced unemployment and stay-at-home orders, is historically low mortgage rates. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac indicates:
“For the fourth consecutive week, the 30-year fixed-rate mortgage has been below 3.30 percent, giving potential buyers a good reason to continue shopping even amid the pandemic…As states reopen, we’re seeing purchase demand improve remarkably fast, now essentially flat relative to a year ago.”
With mortgage rates at such low levels and states gradually beginning to reopen, there’s more incentive than ever to buy a home this summer.
What’s the Opportunity for Sellers?
Finding a home to buy, however, is still a challenge, as this spring sellers removed many listings from the market. Though more people are now putting their houses up for sale this month as compared to last month, current inventory is still well below last year’s level.
According to last week’s Weekly Economic and Housing Market Update from realtor.com:
“Weekly Housing Inventory showed continued tightening. New Listings declined 28% compared with a year ago, as sellers grappled with uncertainty and hesitated bringing homes to market. Total Listings dropped 20% YoY, a faster rate than in prior weeks, leaving very few homes available for sale. As Time on Market was 15 days slower YoY, asking prices moved up 1.5% YoY.”
If you’re thinking of selling your house this summer, now may be your best opportunity. With so few homes on the market for buyers to purchase, this season may be the time for your house to stand out from the crowd. Trusted real estate professionals can help you list safely and effectively, keeping your family’s needs top of mind. Buyers are looking, and your house may be at the top of their list.
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking of selling, many buyers may be eager to find a home just like yours. Let’s connect today to make sure you can get your house in on the action this summer, the new 2020 real estate season.
All eyes are on the American economy. As it goes, so does the world economy. With states beginning to reopen, the question becomes: which sectors of the economy will drive its recovery? There seems to be a growing consensus that the housing market is positioned to be that driving force, the tailwind that is necessary.
Some may question that assertion as they look back on the last recession in 2008 when housing was the anchor to the economy – holding it back from sailing forward. But even then, the overall economy did not begin to recover until the real estate market started to regain its strength. This time, the housing market was in great shape when the virus hit.
“Many still bear scars from the Great Recession and may expect the housing market to follow a similar trajectory in response to the coronavirus outbreak. But, there are distinct differences that indicate the housing market may follow a much different path. While housing led the recession in 2008-2009, this time it may be poised to bring us out of it.”
Fleming is not the only economist who believes this. Last week, Dr. Frank Nothaft, Chief Economist for CoreLogic, (@DrFrankNothaft) tweeted:
“For the first 6 decades after WWII, the housing sector led the rest of the economy out of each recession. Expect it to do so this time as well.”
And, Robert Dietz, Chief Economist for the National Association of Home Builders, in an economic update last week explained:
“As the economy begins a recovery later in 2020, we expect housing to play a leading role. Housing enters this recession underbuilt, not overbuilt…Based on demographics and current vacancy rates, the U.S. may have a housing deficit of up to one million units.”
Bottom Line
Every time a home is sold it has a tremendous financial impact on local economies, making the housing market a driving force . As the real estate market continues its recovery, it will act as a strong tailwind to the overall national economy. Are you in need of a new home? Let us make finding that home easier – Perfect Home Finder
In a normal housing market, whether you’re buying or selling a home, you need an experienced guide to help you navigate through the process. You need someone you can turn to who will tell you how to price your home correctly right from the start. You need someone who can help you determine what to offer on your dream home without paying too much or offending the seller with a low-ball offer.
We are, however, in anything but a normal market right now. We are amid one of the greatest health crises our nation has ever seen. The pandemic has had a dramatic impact on the journey consumers take to purchase or sell a home. To successfully navigate the landscape today, you need more than an experienced guide. You need a ‘Real Estate Sherpa.’
According to Lexico, a Sherpa is a “member of a Himalayan people living on the borders of Nepal and Tibet, renowned for their skill in mountaineering.” Sherpas are skilled in leading their parties through the extreme altitudes of the peaks and passes in the region – some of the most treacherous trails in the world. They take pride in their hardiness, expertise, and experience at very high altitudes.
They are much more than just guides.
This is much more than a normal real estate market.
Today, the average guide just won’t do. You need a Sherpa. You need an expert who understands how COVID-19 is impacting the thoughts and actions of the consumer (ex: virtual showings, proper safety protocols, e-signing documents). You need someone who can simply and effectively explain the changes in today’s process to you and your family. You need an expert who will guarantee you make the right decision, especially in these challenging times.
Bottom Line
Hiring an agent who understands how the pandemic is reshaping the real estate processes is crucial right now. Connect with one of our Sales Agents today to guarantee your journey is a safe and successful one.
GeoffGreen, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the May 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar was held on Tuesday, May 19 at 2 p.m. And, according to Green, “These are interesting times we live in,” to say the least. Geoff shares both national and local stats. Furthermore, he checks in with those who have “boots on the ground.” Sales Associates from Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty share what’s happening in their respective states and communities. There are different regulations for the real estate industry in New York and New Jersey. Thus, there are differing impacts on what is happening in each state.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:
Meet the Panel
The May 2020 Housing Market Update panel shared their observations, experiences, and expertise in this Covid-19 market. Keren Gonen and Kristi Anderson with Green Team New Jersey Realty talked about Vernon and the Sussex County NJ market. Nancy Sardo and Angela Murphy, with Green Team New York Realty, discussed Warwick and the Orange County NY market. Summer Mangels, Home Loan Consultant with Valley National Bank, shared her experiences with financing and refinancing in a Covid-19 market. Watch the above video to hear what the experts had to say.
Something everyone is talking about is:
When is the economy going to fully recover?
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently said that recovery is going to take longer than most people expect. However, several major financial institutions are calling for recovery in the second half of 2020. They include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. And, although unemployment numbers are historically high, they are trending down in terms of the number of new filings. As the country starts to reopen, we will hopefully see unemployment numbers go down.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on the professions and categories most impacted by unemployment. In our April 2020 Housing Market Update we discussed those categories making up the largest majority of unemployed. Service and Bartending were the biggest category then. That number has come down a little as of May 8. Hopefully, as more and more businesses are able to reopen, people in these industries will be able to return to work.
Impact of Covid-19 to Real Estate Showings in North America
Data from ShowingTime provides analytics on the impact of Covid-19 on real estate showings. In March, showings plummeted. However, in mid-April, they started to shoot back up. When thrust into shut-down mode, there was panic and uncertainty. But as time has gone by, we’re learning how to more comfortably deal with the challenges with safety in mind. The reality is people still need homes. People still need to find homes when relocating. Life goes on. And we’re adapting to the rules and regulations as they change.
Homeowner Equity
Another important factor is the percentage of homeowner equity. If you have no mortgage, you will probably be calmer about current financial challenges and uncertainty and be more willing to spend. However, if you have a high debt to equity ratio, things will be tighter and you’ll probably have to hold back on spending. 42% of homeowners in the United States have no mortgage. 58% of all homes in America have at least 60% equity. And the average equity of mortgaged homes is $177,000. These stats show that homeownership offers many Americans some financial stability.
Years for the unemployment rate to return to the pre-crisis level
National and Local Stats on Units Sold & Average Sales Price
On the national level, the chart shows existing home sales for March (pre-COVID). At that point, home sales were a little lower than the previous few years. Prices were on an upward trend pre-COVID. The months’ supply of inventory is showing a seller’s market, with the lack of inventory available.
What is especially interesting is what is going on in Orange County, NY versus Sussex County, NJ. These are bordering counties in different states, with different COVID regulations. In New York, realtors cannot physically show homes to buyers. In New Jersey, they can. Sales in Orange County have plummeted. April numbers were substantially lower than in previous years. However, average sales price was not impacted. In Sussex, April was a good month. They held firm as far as units sold. And prices are continuing to rise.
“Housekeeping” Details:
To reach any of the May 2020 Housing Market Update panelists,
While many people across the U.S. have traditionally enjoyed the perks of an urban lifestyle, some who live in more populated city limits today are beginning to rethink their current neighborhoods. Being in close proximity to everything from the grocery store to local entertainment is definitely a perk, especially if you can also walk to some of these hot spots and have a short commute to work. The trade-off, however, is that highly populated cities can lack access to open space, a yard, and other desirable features. These are the kinds of things you may miss when spending a lot of time at home. When it comes to social distancing, as we’ve experienced recently, the newest trend seems to be around re-evaluating a once-desired city lifestyle and trading it for suburban or rural living. George Ratiu, Senior Economist at realtor.comnotes:
“With the re-opening of the economy scheduled to be cautious, the impact on consumer preferences will likely shift buying behavior…consumers are already looking for larger homes, bigger yards, access to the outdoors and more separation from neighbors. As we move into the recovery stage, these preferences will play an important role in the type of homes consumers will want to buy. They will also play a role in the coming discussions on zoning and urban planning. While higher density has been a hallmark of urban development over the past decade, the pandemic may lead to a re-thinking of space allocation.”
The Harris Poll recently surveyed 2,000 Americans, and 39% of the respondents who live in urban areas indicated the COVID-19 crisis has caused them to consider moving to a less populated area.Today, moving outside the city limits is also more feasible than ever, especially as Americans have quickly become more accustomed to – and more accepting of – remote work. According to the Pew Research Center, access to the Internet has increased significantly in rural and suburban areas, making working from home more accessible. The number of people working from home has also spiked considerably, even before the pandemic came into play this year.
If you have a home in the suburbs or a rural area, you may see an increasing number of buyers looking for a property like yours. If you’re thinking of buying and don’t mind a commute to work for the well-being of your family, you may want to consider looking at homes for sale outside the city. Connect with one of our Sales Agents today to discuss the options available in our area.
[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]Through all the volatility in the economy right now, some have put their search for a home on hold, yet others have not. According to ShowingTime, the real estate industry’s leading showing management technology provider, buyers have started to reappear over the last several weeks. In the latest report, they revealed:
“The March ShowingTime Showing Index® recorded the first nationwide drop in showing traffic in eight months as communities responded to COVID-19. Early April data show signs of an upswing, however.”
Why would people be setting appointments to look at prospective homes when the process of purchasing a home has become more difficult with shelter-in-place orders throughout the country? Here are three reasons for this uptick in activity: 1. Some people need to move. Whether because of a death in the family, a new birth, divorce, financial hardship, or a job transfer, some families need to make a move as quickly as possible. 2. Real estate agents across the country have become very innovative, utilizing technology that allows purchasers to virtually:
View homes
Meet with mortgage professionals
Consult with their agent throughout the process
All of this can happen within the required safety protocols, so real estate professionals are continuing to help families make important moves. 3. Buyers understand that mortgage rates are a key component when determining their monthly mortgage payments. Mortgage interest rates are very close to all-time lows and afford today’s purchaser the opportunity to save tens of thousands of dollars over the lifetime of the loan. Looking closely at the third reason, we can see that there’s a big difference between purchasing a house last year and purchasing one now (see chart below):
Bottom Line
Many families have decided not to postpone their plans to purchase a home, even in these difficult times. If you need to make a move, let’s connect today so you have a trusted advisor to safely and professionally guide you through the process.
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Today’s everyday reality is pretty different than it looked just a few weeks ago. We’re learning how to do a lot of things in new ways, from how we work remotely to how we engage with our friends and neighbors. Almost everything right now is shifting to a virtual format. One of the big changes we’re adapting to is the revisions to the common real estate transaction, which all vary by state and locality. Technology, however, is making it possible for many of us to continue on the quest for homeownership, an essential need for all.
Here’s a look at some of the elements of the process that are changing (at least in the near-term), due to stay-at-home orders and social distancing, and what you may need to know about each one if you’re thinking of buying or selling a home sooner rather than later.
1. Virtual Consultations – Instead of heading into an office, you can meet with real estate and lending professionals through video chat. Whether it’s your first initial needs analysis as a buyer or your listing appointment as a seller, you can still get the process started remotely and create a plan together. Your trusted advisor is still on your side.
2. Home Searches & Virtual Showings – According to theNational Association of Realtors (NAR), the Internet is one of the three most popular information sources buyers use when searching for homes. Your real estate agent can send you listing information and help you request a virtual showing when you’re ready to start looking. This means you can virtually walk through the homes on your wish list while keeping your family safe. As a seller, you can still have virtual open houses and virtual tours too, so as not to miss those buyers looking to find a home right now.
3. Document Signing – Although this is another area that varies by state, today more portions of the transaction are being done digitally. In many areas, your agent or loan officer can set up an account where you can upload all of the required documents and sign electronically right from your computer.
4. Sending Money – Whether you need to pay for an appraisal or submit closing costs, there are options available. Depending on the transaction and local regulations, you may be able to pay by credit card, and most banks will also allow you to wire funds from your account. Sometimes you can send a check by mail, and in some states, a mobile escrow agent will pick up a check from your home.
5. Closing Process – Again, depending on your area, a mobile notary may be able to bring the required documents to your home before the closing. If your state requires an attorney to be present, check with your legal counsel to see what options are available. Also, depending on the title company, some are allowing drive-thru closings, which is similar to doing a transaction at a bank window.
Although these virtual processes are starting to become more widely accepted, it does not mean that this is the way things are going to get done from now on. Under the current circumstances, however, technology is making it possible to continue much of the real estate transaction today.
Bottom Line
If you need to move today, technology can help make it happen; there are options available. Let’s touch base today to discuss your situation and our local regulations, so you don’t have to put your real estate plans on hold.