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July 2019 Housing Market Update
July 2019 Housing Market Update
Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed viewers to the July 2019 Housing Market Update, held on Tuesday, July 16 at 2 p.m. He started off by presenting the most recent numbers.
National Housing Market Statistics
Pricing – Where are things headed?
Looking at year-over-year change in price, only one state, North Dakota, is at a 0% price appreciation change year-over-year. Pretty much we’re seeing gains in price throughout the country. Idaho is leading the charge. The northeast is a little weaker than many other areas of the country.
Corelogic is a substantial company that aggregates a lot of data from many sources. They are a player in regards to legitimate statistics in the real estate industry. Essentially they are predicting the year-over-year price change will round out at about 5.6% which is up from the previous prediction of 3.6%. There is enough economic data to support the higher prediction.
House Appreciation
Over 100 economists, real estate experts and market strategists made predictions on cumulative house appreciation by 2023. The Bulls predicted 27.7%, the Bears 6.7%, while all projections indicated 16.8%. It is significant that even the Bears, the most cautious participants, did see some level of appreciation.
Optimism regarding future price appreciation
The most optimism lies within the middle income of the country.. The higher end is also optimistic. However, people at the lower income level are more pessimistic. The graph show historically how optimistic people in these income levels were, compared to where they are now. People in the upper third income group are a little less optimistic than they have been historically. Higher end sales seem to be dragging; there is a lot of inventory available. Perhaps there is a correlation there.
Seller Traffic
Traffic is up since February, and things are busy. The panelists will speak to this later.
February 2019 June 2019
30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rates
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are at their lowest rate for 3 years, which is important. Mortgage rates have plummeted this year, leading many to anticipate the market will continue to increase as money becomes cheaper. The lower rates make it more affordable to own a home.
Quotes that tell us the second half of 2019 is on a path to be extremely strong
Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s Chief Economist
“Lower mortgage rates, higher wages, and more homes for sale have helped counteract rising home prices, and ultimately, made it so that buyers are able to afford more than last year.”
Ralph McLaughlin, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic
“With mortgage rates flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage of easing housing market headwinds.”
Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
“The drop in mortgage rates over the last two months is already being felt in the housing market. In the near term, we expect the housing market to continue to improve from both a sales and price perspective.”
Ivy Zelman and the “Z” Report
“Key metrics tracking existing home sales demand have been on an upward trajectory so far in 2019. This portends positively for our forecast for existing home closings to increase by 1% in 2019, despite a 3% decline though the first five months of the year.”
Local Housing Market Statistics
A Quarterly look for the last 5 years of the Combined Counties of Orange, Rochester and Westchester, New York
Units Sold
How many homes are selling is what Geoff calls the “mother’s milk” of the industry. With this bigger data sampling, trends can be more telling. There is no question that the market has been going down The market has been softening when you combine the three counties. In fact, outside of 2015 it is the weakest second quarter we’ve had in four years.
Average Selling Price
Prices are still strong, at or above the last four years per this chart. We should continue to see some appreciation, but Geoff does expect the numbers to get lower, despite predictions to the contrary by some others.
Average List to Sell Price Ratio
Basically this is the last asking price of the home versus what it sold for. The higher the number is to 100%, the hotter the market is. While it’s down a little from last year, the percentage is still good. However, it does indicate a softening of the market.
Days on Market
Here, the lower the number, the hotter the market. Here you can see that this number is softening, too, as it intersects with where it was last year at this time.
A Quarterly look for the last 5 years of the Combined Counties of Sussex, Morris and Passaic, New Jersey
Units Sold
Things are definitely a little bit slower on the New Jersey side. We’re down significantly in the first two quarters of 2019 in these counties. We’re only above 2015 and below the last three years. Again, indications of a softening market.
Average Price
Price was up first quarter of 2019, but we’re now starting to see prices soften as the average price is near even with 2018 second quarter number.
Average List to Sell Price Ratio
This number is going up, consistent with what is happening in New York.
Days on Market
In New Jersey, there is a marked decline in days on market, as opposed to New York, where that number was inching up. This indicates a more competitive market.
And now a word from our sponsor…
Meet our Panel
Geoffrey Green, Moderator, President, Green Team Realty
Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty
Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty
Momentum
Jen feels very good about momentum on the Orange County side. She feels it’s a great playing field for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, having interest rates so low is an incentive for buyers. Some buyers who might have used cash are deciding to finance instead because of the low rates. We are fighting low inventory. But if the house is priced right and is in good condition, it’s sold. However, it still is vital to get inventory up.
Keren finds buyers much more educated than in the past. But they are also hesitant. She thinks some of that stems from deciding if this is where they really want to be. If you’re ready, have done your homework, then find a house, doubt can set it. Perhaps that it shouldn’t be this easy. She’s had situations where she’s told buyers that this is a hot market and if they’re interested they need to put an offer in that same day. Tomorrow the house will be gone. By waiting a week, they lost the house.
High End Market
Geoff asked Jen if she sees a lot of high-end inventory on the Orange County side. Jen replied that she’s seeing more of the $500,000/$600,000 in her own inventory and others. There is definitely an increase in the higher end homes. However she sees that market starting to soften. New construction has an impact on pricing of resales. Therefore, the higher-end homes are feeling that hit from the competition. The new property tax implications also impact the larger, high-end homes. She believes that ultimately we’ll see more downsizing.
Geoff responded that there could be interesting opportunities to buy high-end homes over the next five years for people who are looking for a weekend home or retreat. Jen has definitely seen an increase in purchases of second homes.
Geoff asked Keren about the situation in New Jersey. Keren feels that the stats on homes that haven’t sold more than previous years is more from Passaic and Morris Counties. Keren does business in those counties and in ones further south, but a lot of high-end houses in Bergen are being rented. Keren is also finding buyers looking for a second home in the $400,000-$500,000 range. And while we might consider that high-end, to them it’s just a home.
Bidding Wars
Geoff stated, “At the end of the day, we’re still there. There are still bidding wars. If something is priced right, it’s in the middle of the market, it’s well located, it’s gone. There are multiple offers immediately.” Keren thinks that homes that are more affordable in Sussex County have had above priced offers. She still sees a hot sellers market.
Geoff asked Jen if she is seeing the same thing in New York, with intense bidding wars. Jen replied that, again, if the product matches condition and pricing, it’s gone. Especially in the median price-points, Especially anything in the $200,000 to mid $400,000’s.
Appraisals
Geoff then asked about appraisals, if they are coming in okay, or if they are not valuing. Jen hasn’t had an issue with appraisals. She is starting to see some sellers’ concessions inching their way back in. Providing a cushion for buyers, that’s some equity there that they haven’t seen in awhile. That’s a good indicator.
Keren also finds that appraisals are coming in okay. She has also seen a lot of sellers’ concessions. According to Keren, 90% of offers she puts in on the buyer’s do get some concession from the seller.
Having done the Housing Market Updates for some time, Geoff finds that appraisals haven’t seemed to be an issue for the past 12-18 months. However, he recalls that it was a problem a few years ago. As the market was really taking off as prices were jumping it was hard for appraisers to justify comps. It seems that that has evened off.
What are banks doing with foreclosures?
Geoff asked Keren about the situation with bank foreclosures, REO’s. Whether they were releasing more inventory or hanging on tand renting them. Keren replied that they are flipping them, flips are not done well because work goes to lowest bidder. In the end it’s the buyer who gets the short end of the stick. They’ve bought a renovated home, they’re happy, and then she gets the call… This broke and this happened, but there is nothing that Keren can do at that point.
The panel turned the discussion towards the importance of trades people. Plumbers, contractors, etc. The more poorly done renovations there are, the more repairs will be required. Keren did point out that unfortunately there seems to be less people going into these trades. It can be challenging to find labor and materials are expensive.
Wrapping it up
Jen’s final words…. “Keep buying!” According to Geoff, rates are declining, inventory is pretty good. Units sold is trending down, prices are softening. So if you’re a buyer, this is an interesting time. And Jen pointed out that even if someone is not interested in selling at this point, it’s a good time to refinance.
To contact the panelists:
Jennifer DiCostanzo – Cell #917-916-9995
Keren Gonen – Cell #551-262-4062
Next Housing Market Update
August 20 at 2 p.m. Stay informed – sign up for our Housing Market Updates at
March 2019 Housing Market Update
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Green Team Realty’s March 2019 Housing Market Update was presented live on Facebook Tuesday, March 19 at 2 p.m. If you were unable to view the webinar live, you can watch at your convenience by clicking here. Sign up for future updates here.
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, gave a breakdown of both national and local statistics:
National Statistics
This is a 3-year comparison, 2017-2019. The later the year, the darker the color. January shows a decline in 2018 and 2019. In August, things started to turn in year over year increases.
The Northeast is still chugging along, though usually the northeast market lags. However, on the whole, pending home sales are down, region by region.
As far as pricing goes, this is a composite of the top 20 cities in the US. Over the last 10 months and pricing is steadily decreasing. However, it’s more of a soft landing. There is nothing indicative of a “crash.” Historical norms are around 3.6% and we’re around that mark, with 4.2%.
On the mortgage side, here is an average of four entities making projections of where rates will be in 2019. They are projecting that rates will continue to increase, below 5%. Geoff feels this is historically a very low rate. While some in the mortgage industry are projecting a decline in refinancing, money for the resale and construction markets seem to be in good shape.
Local Statistics
Orange County, New York
In the year over year comparisons, we’re at or below the last few years, but still hanging in there. However, we’re not in an increasing market.
Last year we were in the red all year long. While the stats show year over year increases, this was not our highest February.
The asked to sold ratio, the last asking price versus what homes are selling for, took a dip in February but it’s easy to see that year over year we continue to see an increase.
Days in market still indicate a hot market, being lower than any of the previous years shown.
Sussex County, New Jersey
Units sold are down, below 2017 levels.
Average price, however, is increasing. We may actually be seeing further increases in price in Sussex, something we didn’t see much of last year.
Numbers here are similar to those we saw in Orange County, around 96 to 97%.
The numbers indicate this is still a hot market.
Pinellas County, FL
This month we’re also taking a look at the local market in Pinellas County, Florida.
Year over year stats for January 2019 over 2018 show a wide variation. While the number of closed sales decreased by 13%, prices increased by that same percentage.
ARE SENIOR HOUSEHOLDS REALLY CAUSING HOUSING SHORTAGE?
Ali Chamois of Homestead Funding Corp. shared this information with Geoff about the impact of people aging in place. Prior to the Good Times Cohort (those born between 1931 and 1941), people moved out of their houses at a much faster rate.
Exhibit 2 breaks down the number of housing units by age group and shows that 115,200 housing units would have been supplied to the market by respondents aged 68 to 75; 379,200 by respondents aged 76 to 80; and 601,500 by respondents aged 81 to 85.
A similar calculation for the War Babies and Baby Boomers estimate that an additional 550,000 homes were held off the market by these cohorts by 2018, as shown in Exhibit 3.
In total, it’s estimated that there were around 1.6 million housing units held off the market by those three cohorts as of 2018. This amounts to 2.1 percent of total owner-occupied housing units in the United States as of 2018.
Meet this month’s panelists:
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, is our moderator. Laura Marie of Keller Williams, St. Petersburg, Florida joined the panel as a special guest. Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty, Vikki Garby of Green Team New York Realty and Ali Chamois, Homestead Funding.Corp.who joined the conversation by phone, rounded up the panel.
Geoff opened the discussion by introducing Keren Gonen, who has been a panelist every month. Her feeling has been it’s going to be a strong market in 2019, but that the inventory shortage is still happening; not as many foreclosures, etc. Geoff asked if she is still in this same mindset? Keren replied “Absolutely!” Properties are not being released by banks, who are flipping them themselves. Housing shortage has more to do with number of units going down than buyer demand. Sellers are still sitting on houses, waiting to see how strong the spring market will be.
Vikki Garby joined the conversation, saying much is the same in Orange County. Inventory problem is still out there. Buyers are out there. Properties in good condition, priced right, are going quickly. Investors, experienced flippers and new flippers, are trying to find properties. More REO’s are hitting the market and are going quickly, the ones not being done by the banks. Flippers are out and scooping them out.
Laura Marie saw many similarities with Pinellas County, FL. There were 11 short sales and 31 REOs total for Jan. Ones being sold are not much under market. Still hardcore investors are looking for the right deal. The margins have shrunk… To get ahead of the market you have to get off market. A huge amount of fixer uppers. Investors not wanting to purchase some of these homes because of cost of materials, etc. Pinellas County was developed between 1920 and 1960. Buyers are looking for updated, polished, shiny homes.
Geoff asked Ali if she agreed with the projections for the average 30 year fixed mortgage. Ali brought up that for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rates are based on downpayment and credit scores. These factors impact the rate. Regarding projections, clients ask whether they should lock in rates or hold off… Ali never advises them on that because forecasts and predictions can change due to a variety of causes. Geoff said that Freddie Mac is much tougher now, which may be holding the market steady. There is not a lot of subprime lending. Because not a lot of defaults are happening, credit isn’t tightening up. Ali sees a little loosening up on credit standards.
Regarding Aging in Place, Geoff sees this happening within his own family. Ali stated that overall health is better, support systems are better. People don’t want to leave their homes. The current trend is to provide outpatient services for health care. Per Keren, people are living a lot longer. It seems that we do need more houses. There are also people moving in with other generations.
Parents, adult children and grandchildren, living as extended families. The US is transforming. Laura seeing the same thing in Florida. Downsizing, 55+ communities also allow people to have independence – but less yard care. Vikki said that we have more 2 income families. Grandparents often help with childcare instead of relocating, then kids are taking care of the parents as they age.
THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR…
Green Team Realty’s Housing Market Updates are sponsored by REALLY – Better, Smarter, Faster. A real estate referral network for agents. Learn more at ReallyHQ.com
NEXT HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: TUESDAY APRIL 16 AT 2PM
Stay informed – Sign up for our Housing Market Updates at GreenTeamHQ.com/HMU
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Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar – 2019 1st Quarter Sales Leaders for Green Team New Jersey Realty
The Dynamic Duo does it again!
Green Team President, Geoffrey Green, presents the 2019 1st Quarter Sales Leader Award to Ted Van Laar and Charles Nagy
Last year, Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar were Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 2nd Quarter, 4th Quarter, and Yearly Sales Leaders. Now the team is starting off 2019 in a big way, as 1st Quarter Sales Leaders. When Geoff Green first called Charlie and Ted the Dynamic Duo, no one really knew just how much they would live up to their new nickname.
According to Geoff, “Charlie and Ted are without a doubt top performers. These two gentlemen continue to achieve top production results amongst their formidable peers. Not only do they produce at a high level, they are seasoned professionals who have great knowledge about the Real Estate industry which they share with each and every client. Green Team New Jersey Realty is very proud to have Charlie and Ted working with our Agency.”
What makes them dynamic as a duo?
These equity partners in Green Team New Jersey Realty come from diverse real estate backgrounds. However, together they form a productive, successful team. They are united by their love of resort properties and resort living. Charlie and Ted have been recipients of the Circle of Excellence Award multiple times between 2014 and 2018. The award requires minimum sales of $2.5 million and 15 transactions to qualify. And, in 2018, they also became part of the Green Team’s President’s Club. The President’s Club honors those associates with $5 to $10 Million in sales volume.
Charlie is the designated spokesman for the team and had the following to say: “Going forward it will be increasingly more difficult for Ted and me to maintain the top of the leaderboard, thanks to all of the competition in the GTNJR office. But we will continue our efforts to compete hard for the top spot. However, it will also be our pleasure to see one of our co-agents take it away, should that be the case. The TEAM before the individual is our motto!”
Kristi Anderson joins Green Team New Jersey Realty
Green Team New Jersey Realty welcomes Kristi Anderson to their team. Kristi brings with her over 18 years of experience. The Broker-Realtor® is an Accredited Buyer’s Representative and has Short Sales and Foreclosure Resource Certification. In addition, the 15-year resident of Vernon has a thorough knowledge of the area and local market. But she brings something more. She brings a desire to help people make their real estate dreams come true.
Kristi’s passion for real estate began when she purchased her first home. She found the whole process exciting. Searching for the right house, negotiating, arranging financing, closing… even dealing with challenges that arose inspired Kristi to get her license. She still feels that same excitement when helping clients find the right house. She is able to point out the good and bad, helping them see potential they might be missing. With a good eye for staging, she helps her sellers present their homes in the best light to potential buyers. Her slogan, “Kristi will make it happen for you,” aptly describes her commitment to the clients she serves.
This busy mom of four still finds time to volunteer with the Vernon Township School District’s SCA. She is also a dedicated, hardworking volunteer board member of the Vernon Chamber of Commerce.
Kristi is excited about joining Green Team New Jersey Realty. She feels that this is the right place at the right time for her. “I’m happy to be joining a team with the passion, energy and commitment to client service that I have.”
Green Team New Jersey Realty welcomes Sheena Masters
Sheena Masters brings her knowledge of Central and Northern New Jersey to Green Team New Jersey Realty
This lifelong resident of New Jersey is a perfect fit for Green Team New Jersey Realty. Raised in East Brunswick, a fondness for the outdoors led Sheena Masters to move to Vernon in 2010. As such, she has a keen eye on Central and Northern New Jersey. An avid skier, mountain biker, climber and diver, she pursues these passions both at home and abroad.
Sheena also brings some very special skills to her clients…
Sheena graduated from Rutgers University with a BA in Psychology. And, certified as a Registered Behavior Technician, she conducts therapy sessions with children on the spectrum. The joy she finds in helping children extends to helping her clients find a home that complements their lifestyle. Her gift for listening helps her find what is important to them, and her knowledge of local areas can help her guide prospective Buyers.
Focused and high energy, Sheena also enjoys the fast paced world of short sales, foreclosures, auctions and investment properties for flippers. She is alert and tech savvy and keeps an eye on current trends, constantly looking at new listings for her clients.
When Sheena does relax at home, she can be found enjoying time spent with her puppy, Toona, and her three cats.
Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar – 4th Quarter and Yearly Sales Leaders for Green Team New Jersey Realty
The Dynamic Duo
The team of Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar was Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 4th Quarter and Yearly Sales Leaders for 2018. The Dynamic Duo, as Geoff Green affectionately calls them, are equity partners in the brokerage. And they are committed to leading by example. They are strong believers in the Green Team’s unique system of training and support which gives sales associates the tools to provide the best possible customer service and experience.
The Dynamic Duo come from diverse backgrounds in real estate. Yet together they form a productive, successful team. One bond that unites them is their love of resort properties and living. Charles and Ted have been recipients of the Circle of Excellence Award multiple times between 2014 and 2017. That Award requires minimum sales of $2.5 Million and 15 transactions to qualify. In addition, they were Second Quarter Sales Leaders at Green Team New Jersey Realty for both 2017 and 2018.. In 2018 they also became part of the Green Team’s President’s Club, which honors those associates with $5 to $10 Million in sales volume.
Thoughts from Charlie, the Team’s designated spokesman
Charlie Nagy is the team’s designated spokesman. And there was a lot of growth and success for him to reflect upon. “2018 was an exciting year for GTNJR on a number of fronts. First and foremost it was a year of great accomplishment for the Team. Not only did we bring on some new and experienced talent who came to us with many years of experience and achievement, but we bought our own office building and as a result of the Team effort, we ended the year as the #1 firm in sales volume and transactions in all of Vernon, NJ after only our second year in business. While it’s exciting to have won the award for top producer in the fourth quarter, it is more exciting for me to see what we all did as a Team for the entire year. Congratulations to us all.”
Green Team New Jersey Realty is #1 in Vernon
Green Team New Jersey Realty is the #1 real estate office in Vernon* and they couldn’t be prouder.
Some of Green Team New Jersey Realty Partners share their thoughts
According to Equity Partner Charles Nagy, “2018 was an exciting year for Green Team New Jersey Realty on a number of fronts. First and foremost, it was a year of great accomplishments for the team. Not only did we bring on some new and experienced talent, but we also bought our own office building. And, as a result of the team effort, we ended the year as the #1 real estate office in sales volume and transactions in all of Vernon, NJ after only our second year in business. It is exciting to see what we accomplished as a team for the entire year.”
Kim Lasalandra, Managing Broker, described how she felt. “I’m ecstatic! To be the #1 office in terms of sales volume within two years of opening our doors is truly remarkable. And it’s a tribute to the incredible work ethic and determination of our sales associates.”
Geoffrey Green, the founder of Green Team New York Realty and a partner in Green Team New Jersey Realty, shared his thoughts. “I’m very proud of everyone at Green Team New Jersey Realty for taking Green Team Realty’s model, bringing it to Vernon, growing it, and achieving #1 status. I just can’t wait to see what 2019 brings!”
Green Team Realty’s dedicated approach…
Green Team Realty’s dedicated approach has proven that the results are impressive when you provide productive, dedicated agents with continual training and support, a culture that values clients through excellent service and an appreciation program, and an array of competitive advantages. Furthermore, Green Team Realty’s commitment to local community and charities is another aspect that attracts like-minded real estate professionals.
Green Team New Jersey Realty’s new office is located at 293 Route 94, Vernon, NJ. To learn more, visit GreenTeamHQ.com or call 973-814-7344.
*As compared to all GSMLS Offices located in Vernon Township by closed sales volume for the time period of 1/1/18-12/31/18.
Housing Market Review January 2018
There are three things we should look at:
- #1 New home sales are at the highest level in a decade.
- #2 Sales of previously owned homes are at the highest level in more than a decade.
- #3 Starts of single-family homes are the strongest in a decade and applications to build such properties advanced at the fastest pace since August 2007. More than a decade.
Whether we’re looking at new home sales, existing home sales, or new construction home starts, all the numbers are greater than they have been in at least the last ten years. So we can see that 2017 finished off very strongly, and many in the industry believe 2018 is going to be a great year. There are a couple of things that we have to take a look at as we move into 2018. First, let’s take a look at mortgage rate projections.
If we look all the way to the right of the chart above you’ll see the average of all four projections. Now look at the 2018 fourth quarter forecast and we see that the projected average is over 4 1⁄2%.
Currently, interest rates are sitting just about 4%.
Will this impact the market? The chart below shows total home sales for 2017 and what each of the top industry experts is projecting for 2018.
As you can see, National Association of Realtors, Freddie Mac, the Mortgage Bank Association and Fannie Mae all see a dramatic increase in the number of houses sold in 2018. It’s clear to see that the experts who came up with these projections don’t seem to think that’s the market will be affected by an increase in interest rates.
Probably the most important thing we can look at as well is “What does the buyer think right now“.
We can see from the Buyer Traffic chart above (December numbers aren’t in yet) that in September, October, and November of 2017, there was more buyer traffic, more buyer activity, than at any time at all during the rest of the year. Including the spring buyer’s market (March, April, and May). So, there are more buyers out there right now shopping for houses than there was last spring.
Wrap-up
Experts are saying they believe that 2018, as long as more listing come into the market, could be a phenomenal year. As a matter of fact, Bloomberg Business said this: “America’s housing market is gearing up for a robust year ahead. Builders are more optimistic, demand is strong and lean inventory is keeping prices elevated.
Get a closer look at your local real estate market
Housing Market Report – Orange County, NY
Housing Market Report – Sussex County, NJ
Sussex County Real Estate Market Report for Dec 2017
Housing Market Report – Sussex County, NJ
We are pleased to share with you a Housing Market Report from December 2017 as well as a look at the trends for the entire 2017 year. We break down the local real estate activities and provide you with stats, graphs, and analysis of our local and regional real estate market.
Average Days on the Market
The faster things are selling, the hotter the market. Look for the lowest number on the graph as opposed to the highest.
In contrast to Orange County, the days on market shot up in December. However, this may be an outlier, due to snow and extreme cold temperatures. January’s numbers may help us understand if this is the result of specific circumstances, or part of a trend.
Average Price
Sussex County is not seeing the upward trend in price that is being seen in Orange County, but the average price in December is still above every year except 2013. For most of the year the average price was significantly below 2016. However, this may be due to an unloading of foreclosure activity. There was a great deal of foreclosure inventory and short sales, which impacted the “average” price. It is important to remember that prices will fluctuate in hyper local markets.
Average Sold to Asked Ratio
The percentage a house sold for under or over the last asking price (not the original price).
The higher the number, the hotter the seller’s market.
On average, sellers are having to negotiate less than 3% off their last asking price. While down slightly from November, the average sold to asked ratio is holding strong and was consistently higher in 2017 than in any year since 2013.
Homes that sold at 100% or more of last asking price
About one-third of all homes were sold at 100% or more of their last asking price, another indication of a strong market. This is very similar to the Orange County, NY which our Green Team Home Selling System office is located in.
Units Sold
The term units here includes single family homes, condominiums, town house and multi-family homes with 1-4 units.
The market is still strong, higher than any of the years since 2013. 2017 has consistently had the highest number of units sold in each year since 2013.
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Sussex County Real Estate – October 2017 Market Review
Green Team’s Real Estate Market Overview
October’s Market Review Meeting was held a little more than a week before Thanksgiving, and a little more than a month before we ring in a new year. It’s the perfect time to talk about goals that have been set, goals that have and have not been met, and goals that have been exceeded. The Green Team’s Warwick office is one of the top ten agencies in Orange County, with a goal of being one of the top five! And the Vernon office, which opened its doors just 18 months ago, is already in the top 25 of all Sussex County agencies! The Warwick office, as of October 31 it has already exceeded 2016’s year-end total. Green Team New Jersey Realty does not have a full year to compare 2017’s sales to, but its anticipated year-end sales will clearly demonstrate a successful accomplishment for a new agency.
Exceeding Goals and Expectations
2017 has seen exciting goals being set and met by agents in both offices. Mention Sales Leader Awards in Warwick, and there are two names that immediately come to mind: Jennifer DiCostanzo, 2016 Sales Leader and First Quarter Sales Leader Award winner for 2017, and Nancy Sardo, winner of the 2nd and 3rd Quarter Sales Leader Awards for 2017. Jen has already exceeded her goal for this year, and Nancy is close to reaching hers. Who will be the 4th Quarter Leader and who will be 2017 Sales Leader? We can’t wait to find out! And, while these two battle it out, Chris Kimiecik, while new to real estate, has blasted way past his goal of $1,000,000 in sales. Other agents have either reached or exceeded their goals, and others are still working towards meeting theirs. In Vernon, Keren Gonen is a shining star! Another agent new to the business, Keren set a very high first year goal of $3,000,000 – and she has already exceeded that! These agents are excellent examples of the opportunities and possibilities that exist in our industry, as well as demonstrating the hard work, dedication and drive that it takes to reach and then exceed goals. There are many other agents who are exceeding the goals they set for themselves for 2017. Green Team’s agents in both offices are working hard, constantly striving to improve their knowledge and skills, all while providing top notch service to their clients. 2018 looks to be an exciting year for all.
“How is the market?”
When a client asks this question, an agent’s answer is indicative of their level of professionalism and knowledge. This market review meeting focused on how to analyze local real estate stats to provide a clear and accurate portrait of market conditions to clients.
Local Market Reports – Sussex County, NJ
Average Sold to Asked Ratio
This is the percentage a house sold for under or over the last asking price (not the original price).
Sussex County:
With an average of 96.8%, the Sold to Asked Ratio in Sussex County in 2017 has been higher than any of the previous four years. There has been a slight downward trend since July, but this can be attributed to a seasonal fluctuation. Besides, October’s average of 96.35% is still higher than any month during 2013 to 2016.
Units Sold
The term units here includes single family homes, condominiums, townhomes and multi-family homes with 1-4 units.
Sussex County: Here again, the stats show that the 2017 market is hot, with more units being sold this year than in any of the years from 2013 to 2016. There was a dip in September, but then a rise in October.
Average Days on Market
The faster things are selling, the hotter the market, so look for the lowest number on the graph as opposed to the highest. In New York State, the calculation was changed so that it is from the List Date to the Contract Date, rather than to the Binder Date, which was the standard 3 years ago.
Sussex County: With an average of 91.03 days on the market, 2017 once again proves itself to be a hotter market than the previous four years.
Homes that sold at 100% or more of last asking price
Sussex County: In October the number dipped slightly below last year’s October number, but still almost one-third of homes are selling at 100% of their asking price – or above it!
Average Price
Sussex County: Despite the market being hot, prices have gone down since 2013, when the average price was $243,909. In 2017, it’s $221,196. In fact, on average, prices are lower this year than the last four years. When pricing a home for a client It is essential to look at hyper-local comparables.
So, How is the Market?
After reviewing all of the data contained in the graphs for these categories for Sussex County and Orange County, the real estate market is Hot!!! If trends continue their upward climb we can anticipate another great year in 2018. Continue setting goals and let the market help you achieve the best possible deals for sellers, and find the best home, at the best price, for buyers.
Our Next Market Review Meeting
Our November Market Review Meeting is scheduled for Tuesday, December 12. As always, we look forward to keeping on top of our goals and discussing matters that are important to the success of your real estate transaction with our agents. We’ll then be posting information that we hope you’ll find interesting and helpful.
