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June 2020 Housing Market Update
Green Team Realty’s June 2020 Housing Market Update addresses the economic impact of COVID-19 on the real estate market. However, we know that many individuals, families, and businesses have been personally impacted by the pandemic. To all those diagnosed with COVID-19, or who have loved ones with the virus, we wish you a fast, full recovery. To all who have lost someone to COVID-19, our thoughts and prayers are with you. And, while there are a lot of positives to report this month, we realize that many are suffering financial hardships, stress, and anxiety. These are very difficult times, but to quote Geoff Green,
Together we will persevere!
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the June 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar was held on Tuesday, June 16 at 2 p.m. Geoff shares both national and local stats. Furthermore, he checks in with those who have “boots on the ground.” Sales Associates from Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty share what’s happening in their respective states and communities. There are different regulations for the real estate industry in New York and New Jersey. Thus, there are differing impacts on what is happening in each state. In addition, our guest panelist shares information on the current mortgage market.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:
Meet the “Power Panel”
The June 2020 Housing Market Update panel shared their observations, experiences, and expertise in this Covid-19 market. Keren Gonen and Pam Zachowski with Green Team New Jersey Realty talked about Vernon and the Sussex County NJ market. Carol Buchanan, with Green Team New York Realty, discussed Warwick and the Orange County NY market. Laura Moritz, Director of Sales, Northeast Region at Classic Mortgage LLC shared her experiences with financing and refinancing in a Covid-19 market. Watch the above video to hear what the experts had to say.
Let’s start with the jobs market and overall economy
To see where we were last month, click here for the May 2020 Housing Market Update.
According to CNBC,
The May gain was by far the biggest one-month jobs surge in US history since 1939.
Over 75% of job losses were temporary layoffs or furloughs. The Federal Reserve Bank’s May report indicated there were news reports of large-scale hiring at companies like Amazon, Walmart, CVS Healthcare, Domino’s Pizza, etc., due to increased demand.
The Wall Street Journal reported:
Employers added 2.5 million jobs, blowing Wall Street expectations out of the water. Economists had forecast a loss of 8.3 million jobs.
And on to the housing market
According to Ivy Zelman, CEO of Zelman & Associates,
Housing will fare better than expected during this severe downturn.
Home prices are expected to continue to appreciate through 2022, according to several respected industry experts.
Mortgage Demand
According to Diana Olick of CNBC,
Mortgage demand from home buyers shows unexpectedy strong and quick recovery… The quick recovery has surprised most forecasters.
Pending sales and new listings are up from the previous month, according to Zillow’s June report. People are becoming more confident in putting their homes on the market than they were in the early days of the pandemic. Foot traffic was practically non-existent.
The percentage of distressed property sales is at a very low number. The projection is that it will continue to decrease, from 4% to 3%. What lead the last downturn in 2008 was that there were so many distressed properties. Another interesting fact is that most American’s choose real estate as the best long-term investment, over stocks, savings accounts, and gold. This is another sign that confidence in real estate is high.
Mortgage rates
Freddie Mac’s projections through 2021 indicate that rates will remain low. The availability of money drives pricing. Despite all the turbulence we’ve been experiencing, things are looking good in the real estate market.
National and Local Stats on Units Sold & Average Sales Price
On the national level, there was a big drop off in units sold in April, compared to the last four years. (National stats lag 30 days behind. We’ll have May stats in the July Housing Market Update). Geoff fully expects the numbers to rise in June, July, and August, perhaps even surpassing previous years’ numbers. Home prices continue to increase, despite the decrease in traffic, a result of supply and demand. There are simply not enough homes available for sale for all the people who want to buy them. Months of inventory is showing an uptick, though we’re still far below having the 6 months of inventory that would indicate a normal market. We are in a seller’s market, with lots of bidding wars and lots of homes selling above asking price.
In Orange County, New York, we have a bounce-back on units sold from April to May. The average sales price is staying level, but at a high level compared to previous years. Supply and demand should keep sales price high. In Sussex County, New Jersey, units sold have been on an upward trend and never really came down. Average price is still up over the past four years.
“Housekeeping” Details:
To reach any of the June 2020 Housing Market Update panelists,
Are NYC residents moving to the suburbs?
Are people really leaving NYC for the suburbs?
Are NYC residents moving to the suburbs? Statistics show how Covid-19 has devastated New York City. The number of people with COVID-19 and the number of deaths is staggering. Social distancing is difficult. There is no doubt that crowded streets, elevators, and often apartments are not conducive to sheltering-in-place. So, are people really leaving NYC for the suburbs?
According to both local and national news sources, the answer is a resounding “YES!” The headlines tell the story.
National Media
USA Today‘s headline screams, “Get me out of here! Americans flee crowded cities amid Covid-19, consider permanent moves.” According to that article, nearly one-third of Americans are considering moving to less densely populated areas because of Covid-19. On May 8 the New York Times described this phenomenon in “Coronavirus Escape: To the Suburbs.” Then, on May 16 they published “Where New Yorkers Moved to Escape Coronavirus.” According to CNBC, Wealthy New Yorkers flee Manhattan for suburbs and beyond.
Local Media
Locally, radio station 101.5 WPDH posted two blogs on this subject. The first, “NYC Residents Expected to Move to Hudson Valley in Droves.” And “Sellers market driving Hudson Valley Home Prices Way Up.” Additionally, Straus News just published the following story in all its local papers for Orange County NY, and Sussex County NJ: “Pandemic-driven house frenzy hits local towns.”
Green Team Realty Sales Associates: Are they seeing NYC residents moving to the suburbs?
Current real estate market conditions and economic trends were major points of discussion during Green Team Realty’s monthly Housing Market Update. We asked several sales associates if they are seeing NYC residents moving to the suburbs as a result of COVID-19.
Green Team New York Realty – Warwick and Orange County, New York
Angela Murphy, Real Estate Salesperson, and Business Development Associate,
I have seen a rise of new buyers coming from all 5 boroughs of the city. Most of my clients want municipals verses septic, well or oil tanks, which has opened up many areas to view in Orange County. The pandemic has definitely pushed them to head north quicker than they might have, otherwise.
Nancy Sardo, Associate Real Estate Broker
I am seeing an influx of highly qualified tenants as well as an above-average amount of new buyers ready to move quicker than before. We are seeing many more cash buyers, many more full-price offers with less negotiation from a smart buyer. Experienced buyers to the area are more willing to do some elbow grease in order not to hiccup on the deal. Otherwise, they risk the seller moving onto the backup offer. Buyers and people, in general, are serious about the betterment of their surroundings. And, with what we are currently going through, they are now more apt to pay for it. We are in a seller’s market and here in Warwick NY and Orange County on a whole, there is an exaggerated upswing of interest in our beautiful Hudson Valley.
Jennifer DiCostanzo, Associate Broker
Interest is trending with buyers looking for a home that meets their needs both for lifestyle and working from home. They like the idea of self-sufficient living. Being just 60 miles from NYC makes the lower Hudson Valley, with its pricepoint, very attractive for primary and secondary homes. Everyone is coming to a realization that home has to meet both work and leisure needs. Also desired are adaptable living spaces. Living through this pandemic has redefined the concept of home for many people. Outdoor space has become a luxury, particularly for City dwellers. However, it’s not just City dwellers who are redefining what “home” means. There are local buyers who are also looking for that change in lifestyle, space and function.
Green Team New Jersey Realty – Vernon and Sussex County, New Jersey
Kristi Anderson, Realtor
I think that many buyers are coming to the Sussex area because we have had much fewer cases of COVID-19 up here. Most of my clients are buying second homes.
Keren Gonen, Real Estate Salesperson
I am seeing a LOT of NYC buyers. They are CASH mostly and looking to run away. Some are buying a second home, but plenty are moving in this direction to get away from the City completely and realizing the advantages of living in “The Country.” Those buyers have a much larger budget than our “usual” buyers and are looking for updated houses mostly. They are ready, willing, able and QUALIFIED buyers. They are all mesmerized by our charm here in Sussex county.
After months of sheltering in place, many people are reexamining their concept of the ideal home. This pandemic has shown us that we can’t take for granted life as usual. New York City has undergone a drastic transformation. That ideal City life is on pause. Broadway shows, restaurants, boutiques, department stores, museums, vibrant nightlife, closed, Families living in cramped apartments, worried about catching the virus, long for privacy, more room, areas to work, and space for the kids. Furthermore, they’re looking for outdoor living space. And approximately 60 miles away is the beautiful countryside of Orange and Sussex Counties.
NYC residents are looking for homes that provide lots of room for their family’s needs, including work from home space. Covid-19 has shown us the possibilities that exist in telecommuting. People and businesses are realizing that it may not be necessary for people to go to the office every day. As noted above, there are also people looking for second homes, so that they have someplace to “escape” to, should another shelter-in-place be required. Even in a seller’s market, they know they can get more house for their money here. Finally, there are unique hamlets, villages, and towns that offer lifestyles and qualities that people have decided are just what they need in this day and age.
May 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the May 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar was held on Tuesday, May 19 at 2 p.m. And, according to Green, “These are interesting times we live in,” to say the least. Geoff shares both national and local stats. Furthermore, he checks in with those who have “boots on the ground.” Sales Associates from Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty share what’s happening in their respective states and communities. There are different regulations for the real estate industry in New York and New Jersey. Thus, there are differing impacts on what is happening in each state.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:
Meet the Panel
The May 2020 Housing Market Update panel shared their observations, experiences, and expertise in this Covid-19 market. Keren Gonen and Kristi Anderson with Green Team New Jersey Realty talked about Vernon and the Sussex County NJ market. Nancy Sardo and Angela Murphy, with Green Team New York Realty, discussed Warwick and the Orange County NY market. Summer Mangels, Home Loan Consultant with Valley National Bank, shared her experiences with financing and refinancing in a Covid-19 market. Watch the above video to hear what the experts had to say.
Something everyone is talking about is:
When is the economy going to fully recover?
The Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently said that recovery is going to take longer than most people expect. However, several major financial institutions are calling for recovery in the second half of 2020. They include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. And, although unemployment numbers are historically high, they are trending down in terms of the number of new filings. As the country starts to reopen, we will hopefully see unemployment numbers go down.
The US Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on the professions and categories most impacted by unemployment. In our April 2020 Housing Market Update we discussed those categories making up the largest majority of unemployed. Service and Bartending were the biggest category then. That number has come down a little as of May 8. Hopefully, as more and more businesses are able to reopen, people in these industries will be able to return to work.
Impact of Covid-19 to Real Estate Showings in North America
Data from ShowingTime provides analytics on the impact of Covid-19 on real estate showings. In March, showings plummeted. However, in mid-April, they started to shoot back up. When thrust into shut-down mode, there was panic and uncertainty. But as time has gone by, we’re learning how to more comfortably deal with the challenges with safety in mind. The reality is people still need homes. People still need to find homes when relocating. Life goes on. And we’re adapting to the rules and regulations as they change.
Homeowner Equity
Another important factor is the percentage of homeowner equity. If you have no mortgage, you will probably be calmer about current financial challenges and uncertainty and be more willing to spend. However, if you have a high debt to equity ratio, things will be tighter and you’ll probably have to hold back on spending. 42% of homeowners in the United States have no mortgage. 58% of all homes in America have at least 60% equity. And the average equity of mortgaged homes is $177,000. These stats show that homeownership offers many Americans some financial stability.
Years for the unemployment rate to return to the pre-crisis level
National and Local Stats on Units Sold & Average Sales Price
On the national level, the chart shows existing home sales for March (pre-COVID). At that point, home sales were a little lower than the previous few years. Prices were on an upward trend pre-COVID. The months’ supply of inventory is showing a seller’s market, with the lack of inventory available.
What is especially interesting is what is going on in Orange County, NY versus Sussex County, NJ. These are bordering counties in different states, with different COVID regulations. In New York, realtors cannot physically show homes to buyers. In New Jersey, they can. Sales in Orange County have plummeted. April numbers were substantially lower than in previous years. However, average sales price was not impacted. In Sussex, April was a good month. They held firm as far as units sold. And prices are continuing to rise.
“Housekeeping” Details:
To reach any of the May 2020 Housing Market Update panelists,
1st Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders
Congratulations From Geoff Green, President Of Green Team Realty, To Our 1st Quarter Sales Leaders
I am pleased to announce our 1st Quarter Sales Leaders for 2020. They are Jennifer DiCostanzo of our Warwick Office, and Barbara Tesa of our Vernon Office. 2020 started out strong, giving us all high hopes for a very successful year. Then towards the end of the 1st quarter, everything changed. Normally, I’d be photographed presenting an award to each quarterly sales leader. However, while I can’t congratulate them in person, I can do so here.
Once again Jennifer tops the production charts. Her work ethic is second to none and it shows. Jen is a tremendous Realtor who we are extremely grateful to call a Green Teamer!
Barbara is the consummate professional. Always responsive, always learning, and always producing. We are extremely fortunate to have Barbara as part of our team.
Jennifer DiCostanzo and Barbara Tesa at Green Team 2019 Awards Ceremony
Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty
Jennifer DiCostanzo is no stranger to the Sales Leader Award. She has received the Yearly Sales Award each year since joining Green Team in 2015. Jen received the MVP Award in 2017 for more than $10 Million in Sales. Then again, in 2019, for more than $12 Million in Sales. Jen attributes her success to caring about her clients, working hard, and constantly learning. By keeping informed, she is best able to serve her clients to the best of her ability. Even in the midst of a pandemic.
With the challenges presented by COVID19, Jen has shared relevant information and resources with the community. She has written columns published in local newspapers. Jen feels it is important for people to understand their options. And that can range from mortgage forbearance to understanding current restrictions. Further, she has advocated on behalf of local organizations needing help and support as they give help and support to the community.
Jen’s thoughts on Covid19’s impact on real estate transactions
We began the first quarter off with a very strong market. Then suddenly overnight COVID changed every aspect of our lives. We had to immediately customize business practices and protocols. However, even though we are in a climate of social distancing, real estate needs are very much a priority and at the forefront of keeping the economy stable and on track. And by implementing cutting edge technologies, we are able to handle complex real estate market operations.
Stepping off of 2020 1st quarter has fueled stronger client relationships. We have had to seamlessly accelerate to virtual and remote platforms. And by doing so have transitioned both home buyers and sellers safely during a COVID market.
This is truly an essential time for both buyers and sellers to evaluate options and their own financial stability. It’s also an essential time to work with experts who understand the changing requirements and regulations that impact the decision to buy or sell a home. Now, more than ever, it is vital to work with real estate professionals, from your agent, lenders, attorneys and home inspectors, who are familiar with local regulations, safety concerns, etc. to make sure that your transaction proceeds on track and safely, with as little stress as possible. However, setting a level of expectation is vital so you can easily adapt to COVID timing factors. They have also been adjusted with remote and limited staff in all business platforms, from local, municipal and state agencies, and may indeed require more patience. It’s important to remember they are also working through COVID conditions as well.
Barbara Tesa, Green Team New Jersey Realty
Barbara Tesa is also no stranger to the Sales Leader Award, She received the award for the 3rd and 4th Quarters of 2017. Barbara also received the Captain’s Club Award for 2019, with between $3 and 5 Million in sales. Further, she received the New Jersey Realtors Circle of Excellence Award for 2017, 2018, and 2019. When Barbara joined Green Team New Jersey Realty, she brought with her an extensive resume. She has 20+ years of experience in residential and commercial real estate management. And she has been a successful, licensed real estate agent in New Jersey for 11 years now. Barbara’s motto is, “YOUR Property… MY Priority!” Which is fitting, because it’s important to her that her clients feel confident their interests are top priority throughout a transition.
Barbara’s thoughts on Covid19’s impact on real estate transactions
The beginning of the quarter started off strong with a very active January/February and early March. It felt like buyers and sellers had a lot of confidence in the market on both sides. Then, the uncertainty of real estate in COVID-19 times gave buyers and sellers a pause in mid-March. However, it seems to have been only temporary because buyers have remained active with their searches, their desire to see homes in person, and their desire to move. And sellers still want to sell.
We are just doing things a little differently now, taking every precaution with clients under social distancing guidelines when entering properties, meeting for home inspections, and right through to closing a transaction. People are still on the move and we will keep them moving as smoothly as possible. Despite COVID-19, based on the activity I’ve been seeing in the last 3-4 weeks, I’m looking forward to a robust remainder of the year. I am finding that people still want to move on with their plans, so the determination is there in the market.
April 2020 Housing Market Update
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Covid19 has caused economic turmoil, health crises and uncertainty. However, a historical perspective may help us manage emotions and enable us to see what is happening in the housing market and navigate it accordingly. Below is a recording of the Housing Market Update as well as a summary of the most important discussion points.
National – Historical Perspective
Will this be like 2008, the start of the great recession?
The Housing Market was greatly impacted at that time because it was the catalyst that caused the Great Recession. Home price changes during last 5 recessions indicate that recessions do not necessarily impact the housing market. In 3 of the last 5 recessions, housing markets actually increased.
Housing and Mortgage Crash
In 2007, 2008 and 2009, the annual home price depreciation was significant. However, at the time we were dealing with sub-prime lending, etc. However, looking further back, to the Dot.com crash and 9/11 market crash, there was a significant S&P 500 stock market correction. Yet prices in the housing market continued to increase. There were good fundamentals in place.
Annual Home Price Appreciation
In any marketplace, you have to look at overall values. Are assets undervalued or overvalued? With the run-up to 2008, from 2000 to 2005, there were major price increases year over year. 6.5% was the lowest increase, with the highest being 12.5%. However, since 2014, 6.4% has been the highest increase. We haven’t gone back to those major subprime lending issues that happened before.
Mortgage Credit Availability and Affordability
The Great Recession required mortgage industry restructuring. That, in turn, led to qualified buyers not being able to borrow. This time around, it’s a different landscape. We don’t have a subprime lending bubble in the residential housing market. Loans will be processed for good buyers with good credit. Mortgage requirements are tightening a bit, but not to an unreasonable level. Another analytic compares total home equity cashed out in the years 2005-2007 and 2017-2019. People were using their homes “like ATMs” during the former period. The leverage people are putting on their homes has dropped from $824 Billion during 2005-2007 to $232 Billion during 2017-2019. 53.8% of all homes in America have at least 50% equity.
The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median-priced home has dropped from 25.4% in 2006 to 14.8% today. Affordability is in much better shape, largely due to mortgage rates being very low.
The Impact of Unemployment
Concerns about job losses are very real. A breakdown of the April 3 Unemployment Report shows the different sectors affected. 59.5% are from restaurant services and drinking places. The accommodation industry, retail trade, temporary help services, child daycare workers, health care office workers and construction workers make up most of the balance. In other words, these are jobs that should be coming back as soon as these businesses can operate again. It may take some time until people are confident and comfortable enough to get back out there. The next numbers come out on May 8, 2020 and will be discussed during the May HMU.
Unemployment rates and home sales do not seem to have a direct relationship. Current Unemployment Rates were compared to past financial crises. In 1933, during the Great Depression, unemployment rates were at a high of 24.9%. Goldman Sachs is predicting unemployment to be 15% in 2020. They are also predicting that number to go down to 6-8% in 2021, 5% in 2022 and 4% in 2023.
Based on data from the US Department of Labor accessed by Haver Analysis, the current employment situation is more like a natural disaster than a recession. The problem is how long this natural disaster, Covid19, is going to last. There are many unknowns, and no answers. We’ll be tracking what happens as parts of the economy reopen.
Historical look at Existing Home Sales Price
The market was hot the first two months of 2020, with average home sale price higher in January and February than those months in the preceding four years. It will be interesting to see what the numbers show over the next several months.
The above analytic shows Existing Home Sales Prices from January 1999 to January 2020. Even if you bought at the peak of 2007 or 2008, as Geoff did, just before the housing market plunged, it took 8 years for the market to recover. Historically speaking, people moved after an average of 6 years. That number is now inching up to 9 years. The average homeowner generally doesn’t buy or sell during a period of up or down. They want to wait and gain equity in their home. However, if you are not going to buy, what will you do? Rent? If so, you’re not building equity, you’re not getting tax write-offs, and other benefits of home ownership.
Inventory
In 2007, there were 8.2 months of inventory. Right now there are 3.1 months of inventory available. The market is much hotter now than in 2007 (leading into the Great Recession). Geoff believes that now is a very good time to buy, and not a bad time to sell, either, as inventory levels are so low. Historically, 6 months of supply is an average market. We are now down to 3 months of inventory. He does not see this number climbing anytime soon. Many sellers are not putting their homes on the market now, wanting to wait and see what will be happening. And, while people have to weigh their options, the low inventory can benefit those putting their home on the market.
April 2020 Local Stats
Orange & Sussex Counties
In Orange County, Units Sold were actually better in March than in February. Average Sales Price was way up. In Sussex County, Units Sold and Average Sales Price both coming out at a good solid pace. It will be interesting to see what the stats reflect when we take a look at our next Housing Market Update. At that time we’ll see the impact of Covid closures and stay-at-home regulations.
Housekeeping Items
Panel Discussion
Geoff Green was joined by Ken Flood of Quest Financial Services and Ken Aulicino of Family First Funding LLC. Vikki Garby and Carol Buchanan of Green Team New York Realty and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty represented the real estate agents’ points of view. Discussion ranged from the current state of commercial and residential real estate markets. There was positive feedback on how agents are adapting to the Covid19 regulations and are still able to assist clients and close deals. All three agents spoke of strong, serious buyer interest. Ken Flood discussed the financial market and Ken Aucilino the mortgage industry. Because of the wealth of information and graphics as well as the fascinating panel discussion, it is highly recommended that you watch the webinar. Click here to view the April 2020 Housing Market Update.
Remember to sign up below for the next Housing Market Update
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Resources for Covid-19 – for Family, Home and You
We are living in times that are unlike anything any of us have seen before. In the midst of a pandemic, home is now the place we shelter in. Whether we live alone or with family, our homes are where many of us spend most of our time. Schools are closed, as are non-essential businesses. Essential workers are putting themselves at risk just by doing their jobs, and we can’t thank them enough. Those of us sheltering in place are trying to do our part to keep the virus from spreading. Maintaining social distancing, we wave across the street to neighbors, FaceTime with relatives and friends. The health and well-being of those we love is our highest priority, even as we may struggle with stress, financial and emotional challenges. Here are some resources we’ve found to help get through these times.
Dealing with stress and anxiety
The CDC has important information on coping with stress and anxiety in daily life due to Covid-19. And Realsimple.com has some great ideas on how to stress less. Even though this is called a two-week plan, there are ideas you can use any time. Of course, kids experience stress, too. So here’s info from pbs.org on how you and your kids can de-stress during coronavirus. Childmind.org provides tips for supporting teenagers and young adults during the coronavirus crisis.
Managing Financial Stress
There is no denying the stress that comes with loss of income. And with so much uncertainty as to when it will be safe to return to work, that stress is exacerbated. Goodtherapy.com shares a blog post about how to cope with income loss and financial stress during Covid 19. Verywellmind.com shares advice on managing financial anxiety surrounding coronavirus.
Essential Employees
Strive Global shares strategies for anxiety and stress relief for essential workers.
Working from home
Many of us are fortunate to be telecommuting these days. However, working from home comes with its own challenges. Wirecutter offers advice on how to work from home with kids. Real Simple gives you some tips on creating a makeshift home office. And Psychology Today provides productivity tips for working home under quarantine.
Take some time to boost your tech or other skills with free online classes. CIO provides a list of free online tech courses to take while you quarantine. Class Central has a catalog of Free Online Learning Due to Coronavirus. And it’s updated continuously.
You can’t spend all your time working. Billboard shares links to Livestream and Virtual Concerts to Watch During the Coronavirus Crisis.
Spring Clean… and then redecorate with what you have
Of course no April blog post would be complete without a mention of the annual tradition called Spring Cleaning. However, buzzfeed.com changes things up a little, giving us tips for cleaning now that we’re home and may have more time. So, here are 29 Easy Ways to Keep your Space Clean and 65 Things in Your Home to Clean while Quarantined. While doing your spring cleaning, you might also want to try some of these surprising things to clean with vodka, from bhg.com.
Sheltering-in-place may find you wanted to change up your surroundings a little. A few websites we found provide some tips on decorating and redecorating – without leaving home. Housebeautiful.com suggests that you rearrange furniture as a way to redecorate for free. In addition, housebeautiful.com has ideas on making your bedroom more relaxing during these stressful times. Bhg.com has 23 totally free ways to decorate with what you have. And realsimple.com helps you to decorate your home without leaving your house.
Don’t forget to start taking care of the exterior of your home, too. Realsimple.com has some ideas on getting your yard ready for summer now. And don’t forget your car! AAA Northeast has some good advice. If you can’t drive your car, clean it! AAA also advises that you keep your car maintained during a driving hiatus.
Teaching and Having Fun with the Kids
Housebeautiful.com has 23 creative ways to entertain your kids at home. And, if you’re in need of a little magic, wizardingworld.com introduces Harry Potter at Home! Livescience.com shares activities and online resources for homebound Kids: A coronavirus guide. New Jersey Family has Free Resources to Keep the Kids Learning and Entertained During Coronavirus Shutdown. Forbes.com shares 101+ Ideas to Keep Your Kids Busy during Coronavirus Closures.
Harpercollins.com has an extensive At Home Resource for Kids and Family during Coronavirus 2020. And take your high school kids on some of the virtual college tours listed here by AAA Northeast.
Guide to Grocery Shopping and Cooking
Grocery shopping these days seems like an episode of the Twilight Zone. We’re all wearing Face Masks, whether employees or customers. Here’s a Guide to Face Masks from the New York Times. BGH.com has advice on grocery shopping during coronavirus
Once you’ve navigated the grocery store and safely unpacked your groceries, here are some recipes to try. Southernliving.com has spring crock pot recipies. And bhg.com has some quick and easy dinners from pantry staples you can make.
And, if baking is a stress reliever for you, try these 56 Healthy Baking Recipes from popsugar.com.
Stay safe, stay healthy, stay strong.
Meet Cara Dumond
For Cara Dumond, education was the starting point
Meet Cara Dumond, an accomplished MBA Graduate. She comes to Green Team New York Realty with a proven record of success. Cara is a motivated, dynamic and innovative business professional. And she is equipped with articulate communication and presentation skills. She loves being around people. Furthermore, her ability to spark a conversation is a definite assets to her real estate business.
Cara graduated from Monroe-Woodbury High School. She went on to major in Business Administration at Marist Business School at Marist College. With a minor in Fashion Merchandising, Cara achieved her Bachelor of Science Degree. She then went on to receive her Masters of Business Administration with a concentration in Marketing, with high honors.
From Masters degree to project support manager to management/retail positions
For over 10 years Cara was a project support manager for a manufacturing consulting company. They deployed tailored training, implantation and consulting services that helped customers create an organizational culture of continuous sustainable improvement.
For the last 5 years she worked in management/retail positions for Ann Taylor (Loft), Levis Strauss and Company, and Lafayette 148. While at Lafayette 148, she became a top achiever in commission sales in the first 5 months. Through email, personal outreach and social media, Cara developed hundreds of personal relationships with clientele. Her networking and sales abilities are additional assets for a real estate professional.
The transition to real estate and family time
When Cara and her husband Eric built their home in Greenville, New York 15 years ago, she was involved in every step of the process and loved it. She was selling her town home at the same time. While it was extremely stressful and overwhelming, she loved the excitement and challenges. And, she began to see the potential for a career as a real estate professional.
Cara loves working with people. And she wanted a more flexible schedule to fit her family’s lifestyle. Further, she wanted to get away from the hustle and bustle of the corporate world. As a people person who enjoys being out in the world, Cara delights in meeting new people and helping them find their dream home. Born and raised in Orange County, she loves the area and shares her local knowledge with her clients. For Cara, the entire business is exciting and fascinating. From helping a client navigate the purchase of their first home, to finding a distressed property and seeing its potential to be brought back to life or high-end luxury, she loves it all. But beyond that, she is all about putting her clients needs, wants and desires first and forefront.
Real Estate, family and community
Cara and Eric have twins, a boy and a girl, and a Yorkie named Gucci. The twins attend Minisink High School and are active in sports. They play basketball, football, wrestling, lacrosse and snowboarding. Naturally, Cara enjoys watching them play. And she volunteers when needed.
Cara enjoys home decorating and has a passion for home staging, She also enjoys yoga, reading and trying out different restaurants in the Hudson Valley. Cara also volunteers at Mini Wellness Retreats. The company is based in the local community. It offers events that help attendees feel a renewed sense of prioritization for their health and wellness. Additionally, Cara loves being able to support a cause that has such a positive impact on her community.
Cara’s unique skill set and experience combine to make her a wonderful addition to the Green Team family.
Meet Kathryn (Kate) Vega
Green Team New York Realty would like you to meet Kathryn (Kate) Vega. Before entering the world of real estate, Kate Vega earned an Associates Degree in Business. She was a corporate Administrative/Executive Administrative Assistant for 12 years, working with many professionals of all levels, Kate was (and is) detail oriented with a focus on financials, analytics and accounting.
Kate Vega finds her passion for real estate
Her interest in real estate began when she helped her husband, John, sell his condo (off the market). She then assisted in the purchasing of their first home. After that she was hands on in selling that first home And purchasing their current home in Warwick. Kate’s ability to identify and highlight pros and cons of various homes had her becoming a resource for several friends working through their first home purchases.
Interest may actually be too mild a word to describe Kate’s feelings about real estate. In her own words, “I felt that buying, selling and remodeling my homes were the most emotional and exciting times of my life (besides marriage and having babies).” She even admits that she was distracted during her honeymoon with the construction of their first house. And then, while in the hospital having her second child, she requested photos of work being done on the house!
Kate feels that home ownership is a huge component of most people’s portfolios. In addition, it’s vital for the health of a community. She has always been interested in finances, and real estate is one of the largest and most crucial aspects of the economy. Furthermore, she’s conscious of the ups and downs that come with the biggest transactions of most people’s lives. And Kate knows she’ll be able to offer the support her clients need during the process and be sensitive to their needs.
It’s all about family
Kate and John have three children: Johnny, Tommy and Lexie. The family attends Warwick Reformed Church. The children attend Warwick schools. And they’re involved in sports: football, baseball, basketball, wrestling and soccer! John is on the football board, and Kate is the PTA Treasurer for Sanfordville Elementary School.
March 2020 Housing Market Update
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Note
Things are happening rapidly. Just three days after the March 2020 Housing Market Update on the 17th, everything changed. On March 20 Governor Cuomo issued the New York State on PAUSE Executive Order. One day later, Governor Murphy announced a Statewide Stay at Home Order for New Jersey. And even though our physical offices are closed, Green Team Realty sales associates and support staff are all working remotely.
March 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the webinar. He began by discussing last month’s Housing Market Update. One month ago on the February 2020 HMU, things were looking great. The stock market was nearing all-time highs. One month later the coronavirus had set in. Now everything is different.
We are in historical times now. And the panel will try to break it apart and make some sense of what’s happening. The panel includes a mortgage expert and financial expert, in addition to sales associates from Green Team New Jersey Realty and Green Team New York Realty.
Silver Linings
Mortgage rates are extremely low and there are lots of good programs that help people buy a home. Looking at rates from 2016 to today, they are now historically low. Things are fluid now. The Central Bank is in flux, determining 10 year treasure rate. There is a correlation between the treasury rates and 30 year mortgage rates, but they are not one and the same. Laura Moritz, the panel’s mortgage professional, reiterated that. The treasury rates that you hear about on the news do not translate to mortgage rates. Reach out to your mortgage professional to find out what the rates are for your current financial situation.
Some Other Positives
According to ShowingTime, at the start of the year there was a 20.2% increase in showings. 2020 was off to a great start. Geoff sees this as a positive. After we get through this tough period of time these numbers should bode well.
A Mixed Bag
Crude prices present a mixed bag. We are experiencing the single largest decline in the history of crude oil prices. This is due to an oil-price clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia. On the positive side, we’re potentially paying less at the pump and to heat our homes. On the negative side, those companies involved in the oil industry stand a chance of going out of business, defaulting and impacting banks that financed their operations. Without banks lending money, the housing market cannot move forward.
The Coronavirus and the Real Estate Market
The CDC and the White House, during their press briefing, seemed to indicate that this would not be over anytime soon. A lot of school districts, local business leaders, politicians may be saying “For the next few weeks this is going to happen.” However, Geoff’s sense from the briefing was that this halt of movement will actually be prolonged until this virus is truly contained.
Therefore, we need to find ways to operate responsibly and respectfully, to keep the housing market in check and not experience a complete crash.
Impact on Stock Market
Just a month ago the Dow Industrial Average was wavering between an incredible 29,000 and 30,000. The take-away at that time was that 2020 was going to be a great year, as long as there wasn’t a major global crisis. During the February Housing Market Update, Geoff mentioned that he thought the coronavirus might become that global crisis. Within a few days of that the virus began to quickly spread globally. The day before the March 2020 Housing Market Update, the Dow dropped 3,000, its worst day since 1987. And now, the global economy is at a standstill.
A Commercial Real Estate Bubble?
One thing that not many people are talking about yet is the Commercial Real Estate Bubble. Carl Icahn, a billionaire investor, is betting on the commercial real estate market being in a bubble and about to crumble. That is a big deal as banks are heavily involved in commercial real estate and lending. This is a situation we’ll be keeping an eye on.
Local Housing Market Stats
Orange County
Units sold was lower than preceding years for the month of February, while it had been higher during January. That kind of fluctuation is not uncommon and when averaged out, it’s right in the mix. Sales prices came out way ahead of previous years, much the result of low inventory. Ask to sold ratio is still at a very high percentage. That means sellers on average are only negotiating 3% off their last asking price. Days on market has gone up a little, which generally means a slowing of the market. At this pre-coronavirus stage, there were some indications that the market was slowing a little.
Sussex County
Units sold in Sussex County were a mixed bag. Not quite as high as 2018, but a little higher than 2019. Average price is up, and ask to sold ratio is at 97%, As in Orange County, days on market is going up, again indicating a slowing in the market.
As Real Estate Professionals, what can we do during this crisis?
Whether you’re a home owner, potential buyer or realtor, we all need to take this seriously. Geoff mentioned that one of the doctors on the coronavirus news briefing on March 16 said that this is all about the Greatest Generation. Many of the people who are dying from the coronavirus are from the World War II generation. And we owe it to them to try to safeguard their health. We have to make sure we’re doing the right thing.
We have to make sure we’re watching the WHO and CDC guidelines and operating within those confines. Some countries are shutting down, others are not. Geoff’s take away is no more group meetings. If you are having symptoms, then you and your household must self-quarantine. If you’re a real estate agent and you have symptoms, take it seriously. Do not show homes, do not pretend you’re asymptomatic.
For those sales agents who do not have symptoms and have not been exposed to the virus, Geoff recommended the following. Tell sellers who might be concerned about buyers coming into their homes that we will do personal showings and greet the potential buyer and buyer’s agent at the door. Make judgment call if you think they might be ill. Walk them through the home, opening doors, closets, etc., then wipe them down before leaving.
Video tours provide a good alternative, if necessary. Buyers are never physically in the property. The sales associate, with boots on the ground, walks them through, using video conferencing.
Before opening the discussion up to the panel, Geoff had one more thing to say… WE WILL PREVAIL!
Housekeeping items
Meet our Panel
From left to right, Laura Moritz, Clasic Mortgage; Ken Ford, Warwick Valley Financial Advisors
From left to right, Kristi Anderson, Green Team New Jersey Realty, Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty, Angela Murphy, Green Team New York Realty
Discussion
Looking for “boots on the ground,” Geoff first asked the sales associates what was happening with ShowingTime. Were people continuing to want to see homes, were they cancelling? Kristi stated that she was still getting lots of showings on her properties. Personally she showed 8 different prospects homes over the weekend. It’s very busy still at this point. Keren had two cancellations over the weekend, then got calls from a brand new client she showed homes to. And just the day before she showed one client eight properties. Angela agreed that not only are people viewing homes, they’re purchasing homes. Six out of ten homes she had showed to buyers had accepted offers within a week. Kristi added that she had two properties go to contract this day.
Geoff stated it’s interesting that the housing market in total – sales, exchange of real property, renovations, maintenance, etc. roughly equates to almost 20% to 25% of national GDP. It is a major force, economically speaking. His hope is that the housing market will stay relatively healthy during all this. If we do go into recession, it may not be that deep and that bad. He asked Ken for his opinion on this.
Are we heading towards a recession?
Ken first talked about the history of recessions. He said this is the longest period that the US has gone without a recession. The last was 2008/2009, the period of the great financial crisis. And we’ve never gone a decade without one. Going back 150 years of data, we’ve had one or two recessions each decade. Recessions can be healthy, weeding out the excesses of economic expansion. Our economic expansion has been built on more debt, more credit, low interest rates and the Federal Reserve pumping money into the economy. The saying goes, the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And the last ten years have been the biggest boom he’s ever seen.
If liquidity and the financial markets seize up like they did in 2008, then we are going to have a recession. The Fed dropped the interest rate to 0%, providing lots of liquidity. They’re trying not to repeat 2008, but Ken is not sure they’ll be able to do it. We don’t have any stimulus that can jump start the economy. Plus we have a trillion dollar deficit, so where do we go from there? If we start losing confidence in the market, there will be a problem. Greed and fear often drive decisions. However, he said if you know how to value assets and have the capital there will be some great investment opportunities going forward. And Ken does believe that we’re headed for a recession, with everything shutting down, people working from home, unable to go to stores, restaurants, etc.. It’s just a question of how bad the recession will be.
From the lender’s perspective
Geoff asked Laura for her thoughts. She reiterated what Geoff had said. We’ve survived bad times before. And, unlike the big cities, a lot of people are looking to move to less densely populated areas. Our proximity and distance from major cities are important factors. From a lender’s perspective, she had four accepted offers the day before. She does see buyers putting offers in, and she had three closings this week. On the other hand, she does see evidence of the banks tightening up. Putting down 3% or 0% may not be feasible. Property values may be depreciating in the short term, larger down payments may be required. People still need a roof over their heads, so it’s different than the commercial market that Geoff described before.
Laura said that she’s been inundated with calls from people wanting to refinance they’re mortgages. She closed ten last month. However, right now banks do not want to refinance mortgages and are pricing them accordingly. They don’t want to compromise their portfolios. If you want to refinance, you may have to hold on. Geoff said that one of the strengths, compared to 2008, is the level of equity in homes, in general. A lot of households don’t have a mortgage, and a lot have a pretty low loan to value ratio. He hopes that the housing market, which caused the 2008 financial collapse, is now carrying the U.S. economy. We’ve been in a boom compared to the rest of the world.
Can a strong housing market make a recession not hurt as much as last one?
Geoff asked if it’s fair to say that the U.S. housing market might actually make this recession not hurt as much as the last time?
Ken replied that he was looking at something that was the best indicator of valuation of residential housing. The Case-Shiller Index shows that with real estate in Warwick, you can’t buy the same house in Greenwich, CT. You can’t buy the same square footage, etc. The denominator is the income of the town you live in; the value of real estate divided by the average income. It is higher than 2007/2008. We have a higher valuation than what they deemed to be a housing bubble.
Geoff believes low mortgage rates and low inventory, providing supply and demand, has driven real estate value up. He believes there is still so much demand, without the supply. Ken said if we wind up with inflation, mortgage rates will go up. Income inequality is a major problem. Interest rates drive the pricing power of all assets.
Impact of the job market
Geoff said it will all boil down to people having jobs and having confidence to buy a home. The job market is another interesting discussion. The number of layoffs that might occur during this halting of movement will be of interest. He hopes that companies will hang on to cash flow to keep their employees on. He said that is what they’re doing at Green Team. Everyone is working remotely, and they haven’t dialed back on staff. They’re trying to do more with what they have and hope other businesses do the same.
Ken said it all comes back to the stock market. The biggest cost of any corporation is the employees. If stock plummets and earnings go down, the CEO or CFO of major corporations will normally cut employees. Decision makers start laying people off when revenue and earnings go down. As financial planner he tells people to have emergency savings, just in case they are laid off from their jobs.
Wrapping it up
Geoff thanked everyone for their participation. The take-away is, if you’re a seller worried about putting your home on the market because of what is going on, for market reasons get your home on the market now. The market is still very robust, as Kristi, Keren and Angela had stated. We don’t know what the future holds, so why wait? If you’re concerned for health reasons, that is understandable. There might be ways around that, as well. He suggested talking to a Green Team realtor, such as Kristi Anderson, Keren Gonen or Angela Murphy. Regardless, this is what realtors do… find ways to make it happen. For buyers, there may be some unique opportunities.
We have no choice but to keep going. Keren added that she listed a house on Saturday and the next day had three full-priced offers. Good houses are selling. Have trust that we can get this done for you.
Laura added, with everyone staying together, being with their families, they’ll re-evaluate priorities. And what is the heart of the family? Their home. Extended families may blend, people will find comfort in their homes. She feels in that regard, this will be good in our market.
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