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Meet Kathryn (Kate) Vega
Green Team New York Realty would like you to meet Kathryn (Kate) Vega. Before entering the world of real estate, Kate Vega earned an Associates Degree in Business. She was a corporate Administrative/Executive Administrative Assistant for 12 years, working with many professionals of all levels, Kate was (and is) detail oriented with a focus on financials, analytics and accounting.
Kate Vega finds her passion for real estate
Her interest in real estate began when she helped her husband, John, sell his condo (off the market). She then assisted in the purchasing of their first home. After that she was hands on in selling that first home And purchasing their current home in Warwick. Kate’s ability to identify and highlight pros and cons of various homes had her becoming a resource for several friends working through their first home purchases.
Interest may actually be too mild a word to describe Kate’s feelings about real estate. In her own words, “I felt that buying, selling and remodeling my homes were the most emotional and exciting times of my life (besides marriage and having babies).” She even admits that she was distracted during her honeymoon with the construction of their first house. And then, while in the hospital having her second child, she requested photos of work being done on the house!
Kate feels that home ownership is a huge component of most people’s portfolios. In addition, it’s vital for the health of a community. She has always been interested in finances, and real estate is one of the largest and most crucial aspects of the economy. Furthermore, she’s conscious of the ups and downs that come with the biggest transactions of most people’s lives. And Kate knows she’ll be able to offer the support her clients need during the process and be sensitive to their needs.
It’s all about family
Kate and John have three children: Johnny, Tommy and Lexie. The family attends Warwick Reformed Church. The children attend Warwick schools. And they’re involved in sports: football, baseball, basketball, wrestling and soccer! John is on the football board, and Kate is the PTA Treasurer for Sanfordville Elementary School.
March 2020 Housing Market Update
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Note
Things are happening rapidly. Just three days after the March 2020 Housing Market Update on the 17th, everything changed. On March 20 Governor Cuomo issued the New York State on PAUSE Executive Order. One day later, Governor Murphy announced a Statewide Stay at Home Order for New Jersey. And even though our physical offices are closed, Green Team Realty sales associates and support staff are all working remotely.
March 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the webinar. He began by discussing last month’s Housing Market Update. One month ago on the February 2020 HMU, things were looking great. The stock market was nearing all-time highs. One month later the coronavirus had set in. Now everything is different.
We are in historical times now. And the panel will try to break it apart and make some sense of what’s happening. The panel includes a mortgage expert and financial expert, in addition to sales associates from Green Team New Jersey Realty and Green Team New York Realty.
Silver Linings
Mortgage rates are extremely low and there are lots of good programs that help people buy a home. Looking at rates from 2016 to today, they are now historically low. Things are fluid now. The Central Bank is in flux, determining 10 year treasure rate. There is a correlation between the treasury rates and 30 year mortgage rates, but they are not one and the same. Laura Moritz, the panel’s mortgage professional, reiterated that. The treasury rates that you hear about on the news do not translate to mortgage rates. Reach out to your mortgage professional to find out what the rates are for your current financial situation.
Some Other Positives
According to ShowingTime, at the start of the year there was a 20.2% increase in showings. 2020 was off to a great start. Geoff sees this as a positive. After we get through this tough period of time these numbers should bode well.
A Mixed Bag
Crude prices present a mixed bag. We are experiencing the single largest decline in the history of crude oil prices. This is due to an oil-price clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia. On the positive side, we’re potentially paying less at the pump and to heat our homes. On the negative side, those companies involved in the oil industry stand a chance of going out of business, defaulting and impacting banks that financed their operations. Without banks lending money, the housing market cannot move forward.
The Coronavirus and the Real Estate Market
The CDC and the White House, during their press briefing, seemed to indicate that this would not be over anytime soon. A lot of school districts, local business leaders, politicians may be saying “For the next few weeks this is going to happen.” However, Geoff’s sense from the briefing was that this halt of movement will actually be prolonged until this virus is truly contained.
Therefore, we need to find ways to operate responsibly and respectfully, to keep the housing market in check and not experience a complete crash.
Impact on Stock Market
Just a month ago the Dow Industrial Average was wavering between an incredible 29,000 and 30,000. The take-away at that time was that 2020 was going to be a great year, as long as there wasn’t a major global crisis. During the February Housing Market Update, Geoff mentioned that he thought the coronavirus might become that global crisis. Within a few days of that the virus began to quickly spread globally. The day before the March 2020 Housing Market Update, the Dow dropped 3,000, its worst day since 1987. And now, the global economy is at a standstill.
A Commercial Real Estate Bubble?
One thing that not many people are talking about yet is the Commercial Real Estate Bubble. Carl Icahn, a billionaire investor, is betting on the commercial real estate market being in a bubble and about to crumble. That is a big deal as banks are heavily involved in commercial real estate and lending. This is a situation we’ll be keeping an eye on.
Local Housing Market Stats
Orange County
Units sold was lower than preceding years for the month of February, while it had been higher during January. That kind of fluctuation is not uncommon and when averaged out, it’s right in the mix. Sales prices came out way ahead of previous years, much the result of low inventory. Ask to sold ratio is still at a very high percentage. That means sellers on average are only negotiating 3% off their last asking price. Days on market has gone up a little, which generally means a slowing of the market. At this pre-coronavirus stage, there were some indications that the market was slowing a little.
Sussex County
Units sold in Sussex County were a mixed bag. Not quite as high as 2018, but a little higher than 2019. Average price is up, and ask to sold ratio is at 97%, As in Orange County, days on market is going up, again indicating a slowing in the market.
As Real Estate Professionals, what can we do during this crisis?
Whether you’re a home owner, potential buyer or realtor, we all need to take this seriously. Geoff mentioned that one of the doctors on the coronavirus news briefing on March 16 said that this is all about the Greatest Generation. Many of the people who are dying from the coronavirus are from the World War II generation. And we owe it to them to try to safeguard their health. We have to make sure we’re doing the right thing.
We have to make sure we’re watching the WHO and CDC guidelines and operating within those confines. Some countries are shutting down, others are not. Geoff’s take away is no more group meetings. If you are having symptoms, then you and your household must self-quarantine. If you’re a real estate agent and you have symptoms, take it seriously. Do not show homes, do not pretend you’re asymptomatic.
For those sales agents who do not have symptoms and have not been exposed to the virus, Geoff recommended the following. Tell sellers who might be concerned about buyers coming into their homes that we will do personal showings and greet the potential buyer and buyer’s agent at the door. Make judgment call if you think they might be ill. Walk them through the home, opening doors, closets, etc., then wipe them down before leaving.
Video tours provide a good alternative, if necessary. Buyers are never physically in the property. The sales associate, with boots on the ground, walks them through, using video conferencing.
Before opening the discussion up to the panel, Geoff had one more thing to say… WE WILL PREVAIL!
Housekeeping items
Meet our Panel
From left to right, Laura Moritz, Clasic Mortgage; Ken Ford, Warwick Valley Financial Advisors
From left to right, Kristi Anderson, Green Team New Jersey Realty, Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty, Angela Murphy, Green Team New York Realty
Discussion
Looking for “boots on the ground,” Geoff first asked the sales associates what was happening with ShowingTime. Were people continuing to want to see homes, were they cancelling? Kristi stated that she was still getting lots of showings on her properties. Personally she showed 8 different prospects homes over the weekend. It’s very busy still at this point. Keren had two cancellations over the weekend, then got calls from a brand new client she showed homes to. And just the day before she showed one client eight properties. Angela agreed that not only are people viewing homes, they’re purchasing homes. Six out of ten homes she had showed to buyers had accepted offers within a week. Kristi added that she had two properties go to contract this day.
Geoff stated it’s interesting that the housing market in total – sales, exchange of real property, renovations, maintenance, etc. roughly equates to almost 20% to 25% of national GDP. It is a major force, economically speaking. His hope is that the housing market will stay relatively healthy during all this. If we do go into recession, it may not be that deep and that bad. He asked Ken for his opinion on this.
Are we heading towards a recession?
Ken first talked about the history of recessions. He said this is the longest period that the US has gone without a recession. The last was 2008/2009, the period of the great financial crisis. And we’ve never gone a decade without one. Going back 150 years of data, we’ve had one or two recessions each decade. Recessions can be healthy, weeding out the excesses of economic expansion. Our economic expansion has been built on more debt, more credit, low interest rates and the Federal Reserve pumping money into the economy. The saying goes, the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And the last ten years have been the biggest boom he’s ever seen.
If liquidity and the financial markets seize up like they did in 2008, then we are going to have a recession. The Fed dropped the interest rate to 0%, providing lots of liquidity. They’re trying not to repeat 2008, but Ken is not sure they’ll be able to do it. We don’t have any stimulus that can jump start the economy. Plus we have a trillion dollar deficit, so where do we go from there? If we start losing confidence in the market, there will be a problem. Greed and fear often drive decisions. However, he said if you know how to value assets and have the capital there will be some great investment opportunities going forward. And Ken does believe that we’re headed for a recession, with everything shutting down, people working from home, unable to go to stores, restaurants, etc.. It’s just a question of how bad the recession will be.
From the lender’s perspective
Geoff asked Laura for her thoughts. She reiterated what Geoff had said. We’ve survived bad times before. And, unlike the big cities, a lot of people are looking to move to less densely populated areas. Our proximity and distance from major cities are important factors. From a lender’s perspective, she had four accepted offers the day before. She does see buyers putting offers in, and she had three closings this week. On the other hand, she does see evidence of the banks tightening up. Putting down 3% or 0% may not be feasible. Property values may be depreciating in the short term, larger down payments may be required. People still need a roof over their heads, so it’s different than the commercial market that Geoff described before.
Laura said that she’s been inundated with calls from people wanting to refinance they’re mortgages. She closed ten last month. However, right now banks do not want to refinance mortgages and are pricing them accordingly. They don’t want to compromise their portfolios. If you want to refinance, you may have to hold on. Geoff said that one of the strengths, compared to 2008, is the level of equity in homes, in general. A lot of households don’t have a mortgage, and a lot have a pretty low loan to value ratio. He hopes that the housing market, which caused the 2008 financial collapse, is now carrying the U.S. economy. We’ve been in a boom compared to the rest of the world.
Can a strong housing market make a recession not hurt as much as last one?
Geoff asked if it’s fair to say that the U.S. housing market might actually make this recession not hurt as much as the last time?
Ken replied that he was looking at something that was the best indicator of valuation of residential housing. The Case-Shiller Index shows that with real estate in Warwick, you can’t buy the same house in Greenwich, CT. You can’t buy the same square footage, etc. The denominator is the income of the town you live in; the value of real estate divided by the average income. It is higher than 2007/2008. We have a higher valuation than what they deemed to be a housing bubble.
Geoff believes low mortgage rates and low inventory, providing supply and demand, has driven real estate value up. He believes there is still so much demand, without the supply. Ken said if we wind up with inflation, mortgage rates will go up. Income inequality is a major problem. Interest rates drive the pricing power of all assets.
Impact of the job market
Geoff said it will all boil down to people having jobs and having confidence to buy a home. The job market is another interesting discussion. The number of layoffs that might occur during this halting of movement will be of interest. He hopes that companies will hang on to cash flow to keep their employees on. He said that is what they’re doing at Green Team. Everyone is working remotely, and they haven’t dialed back on staff. They’re trying to do more with what they have and hope other businesses do the same.
Ken said it all comes back to the stock market. The biggest cost of any corporation is the employees. If stock plummets and earnings go down, the CEO or CFO of major corporations will normally cut employees. Decision makers start laying people off when revenue and earnings go down. As financial planner he tells people to have emergency savings, just in case they are laid off from their jobs.
Wrapping it up
Geoff thanked everyone for their participation. The take-away is, if you’re a seller worried about putting your home on the market because of what is going on, for market reasons get your home on the market now. The market is still very robust, as Kristi, Keren and Angela had stated. We don’t know what the future holds, so why wait? If you’re concerned for health reasons, that is understandable. There might be ways around that, as well. He suggested talking to a Green Team realtor, such as Kristi Anderson, Keren Gonen or Angela Murphy. Regardless, this is what realtors do… find ways to make it happen. For buyers, there may be some unique opportunities.
We have no choice but to keep going. Keren added that she listed a house on Saturday and the next day had three full-priced offers. Good houses are selling. Have trust that we can get this done for you.
Laura added, with everyone staying together, being with their families, they’ll re-evaluate priorities. And what is the heart of the family? Their home. Extended families may blend, people will find comfort in their homes. She feels in that regard, this will be good in our market.
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Green Team 2019 Awards Ceremony Looks Back at Momentous Year
Agents and staff of Green Team Realty gathered together on January 17 for their 2019 Award Ceremony. Warwick Valley Country Club was the perfect place to celebrate a year that was momentous in many ways.
2019 – A Year to Remember
According to Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, the “Green Team 2019 Awards Ceremony is all about appreciation for our Sales Associates. They are the ones out there in the field doing the hard work of listing and selling homes. This is a tough business that puts many demands on their time and resources. The Green Team Award Ceremony is a way to say thank you, highlight their achievements, and get them ready for another busy year.”
Geoff welcomed everyone and outlined some of the year’s milestones. Once again, through dedication, hard work, support, creative marketing, and consistent training programs, many Green Team Sales Associates saw their businesses grow.
Green Team #1 In Warwick and Vernon for Sales Volume and Units Sold
It was with great pride that Geoff announced Green Team was #1 in Warwick and Vernon. Green Team New York Realty (“GTNYR”) was #1 in Warwick for sales volume and units sold. Furthermore, Green Team New Jersey Realty (“GTNJR”) was #1 in Vernon for sales volume and units sold for the second year. Both did well in their respective counties, too. GTNYR was #8 out of 385 real estate offices in Orange County. And they were #9 out of 385 in terms of units sold. GTNJR was #8 out of 388 in terms of sales volume in Sussex County. And it was #6 out of 388 in terms of units sold.
Award Presentations
Geoff believes in acknowledging and rewarding both growth and achievement. And what makes the award presentations so special is the support and pride that the whole Green Team family shows to the recipients. This year Green Team Realty had a special presenter. Geoff’s wife, Laura, announced the winners in each category. She was aided by Donna Roberts, Green Team’s Agent Service Manager for the Vernon office, and event planner extraordinaire.
MVP Award
Jennifer DiCostanzo received the MVP Award for over $12 Million in sales for 2019. Jen, the first and only recipient of this award, also achieved the MVP in 2017 for over $10 Million in sales. Geoff Green had this to say about Jennifer: “While everyone can stand back and marvel at Jennifer’s accomplishments, what truly is the reason for her success is her work ethic. No one takes their business more seriously than Jennifer. She is a true professional in every sense of the word, and she works hard for everything she receives. There is no doubt that Jennifer will be at the top of Orange County, NY Real Estate Sales Associate production charts for many years to come.”
Yearly Sales Leaders
GTNJR’s team of Charles Nagy and Ted Van Laar received the Yearly Sales Leader Award for the second year in a row
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And Jennifer DiCostanzo received GTNYR’S Yearly Sales Leader award for the fourth year in a row.
President’s Club
In 2018 a new level of achievement was introduced. The President’s Club Award is given to those sales associates achieving between $5 and $10 Million in Sales Volume. For 2019, recipients of the award were, from left to right: Charles Nagy, Keren Gonen, and Ted Van Laar of Green Team New Jersey Realty. And Vikki Garby, Nancy Sardo, and Dean Diltz of Green Team New York Realty.
Captain’s Club
This established award is given to those who do $3 to $5 Million in Sales Volume. From left to right, recipients are Kristi Anderson, Heidi Hyland, Alison Miller, and Barbara Tesa of Green Team New Jersey Realty. And from Green Team New York Realty we have Tammy Scotto, Lucyann Tinnirello, Kristine Many, Angela Murphy, Carol Buchanan, and Toni Vogel. Not pictured is Chris Kimiecik.
Honorable Mention
This category was created in 2018 to acknowledge those Sales Associates who had $1.5 to $3 Million in Sales Volume. Recipients of this award, from left to right are Ann Nussberger and Cathie Witte of Green Team New Jersey Realty. Not pictured: Kimberly Lasalandra. From Green Team New York Realty are Pip Klein, June Cosgrove-Hays, Walter Ross, Tiffany Megna, Tom Folino, and Jacque Kraszewski. Denise Schmidt was given the award posthumously, with the certificate accepted by her daughter, Dana. Not pictured: Guillermina “GIdget” Tavares, Kim Lesley, and Linda VandeWeert.
The Momentum Builder Award
Every year Geoff Green selects a sales associate who has demonstrated hard work and determination while overcoming obstacles. Someone who has come through a tough spot in life and turned challenges into great success; not just in real estate but in life. A person who shows no signs of going backward. Because it’s all about building momentum towards a brighter future. This year’s Momentum Builder was Denise Schmidt, and there was not a dry eye in the house when Denise’s daughter, Dana came up to receive the award on her mother’s behalf.
Denise passed away suddenly in 2019, leaving family, friends, and co-workers in shock. She was much loved and is missed by all. Dana spoke movingly about Denise and her legacy. As a loving, hardworking single mom, Denise did whatever it took to provide for her family. In addition to being a sales associate with Green Team New York Realty, she was also a bus driver for the Warwick Valley Central School District.
The People’s Choice Awards
The winners of these awards are selected by their peers.
Citizen Of The Year
Recipients of this award are nominated by their co-workers. Both have made outstanding contributions to our local communities. This is the fourth year in a row that Jen DiCostanzo has been named Citizen of the Year by Green Team New York Realty. Jen originated Light Up the Holidays for Green Team to raise funds for local charities. The program evolved into Team Up for Hope, an initiative to raise funds and awareness of local organizations working in the fields of mental health, substance abuse prevention, and suicide prevention.
Keren Gonen has been named Citizen of the Year by her peers at Green Team New Jersey Realty for the third year. Keren has been instrumental in raising funds for local charities. She is also extremely active in Team Up for Hope.
These women truly believe in giving back to the community and put in the time, effort, and commitment to make things happen.
Team Player Award
Recipients of this award are deemed the most reliable, positive and dependable. Furthermore, they work well with others and have great problem-solving skills. It is no coincidence that the award went to the Agent Service Managers of each office. Andrea Wynn was voted Team Player by her peers in the Warwick office. And Donna Roberts was voted Team Player by her co-workers in Vernon.
In addition to her position as ASM of the Vernon, NJ office, Donna is a talented Event Planner and Coordinator. Her skill was evident in the many details of the Award Ceremony on display.
A Special Thank You To Our Sponsors
The event’s sponsors helped transform the Awards Ceremony into an awards Celebration!
Amy Green, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, was a Diamond Sponsor. Geoff Green watched with pride as his sister, Amy, addressed the gathering. Douglas R. Stage, Esq..of Stage Law Firm, LLP (formerly Stage & Nathans) was a Platinum Sponsor. And Gold Sponsors were: Joe Mayers of Septic Experts, LLC; David Willner, Pillar to Post Home Inspections; Kenneth Flood, Quest Financial Services; Jamie Fiscus, Allied Title, LLC, and Frank Frasco, Home Inspection LLC. As is usually the case when real estate professionals get together, there is “shop talk.” The Awards Ceremony provided an opportunity for Green Team Sales Associates to discuss local market conditions and community with sponsoring companies.
There was also the opportunity to dance! DJ Freddie Z kept the crowd entertained and energized. And George Tsakanias and Klaus-Peter
However, there was something else evident in the room. There was a sense that this was a TEAM. And as members of a team, there was pride, support, friendship, and respect for each other’s accomplishments. What’s more, you could tell that plans, goals, and dreams were beginning to take shape and would see the members of the Green Team through the coming year.
Vikki Garby Featured in Top Agent Magazine
Vikki Garby of Green Team New York Realty will be featured in Top Agent Magazine in the April 20, 2020 National and International issues. This premier real estate magazine has been presenting producing, accomplished professionals in the real estate industry for almost 20 years. Candidate evaluations are based on production, professionalism, industry and community involvement.
Vikki’s Top Agent Profile
Vikki began her real estate career back in 2005, investing in properties with her husband. At the time she was working in the finance industry. However, after moving back to her hometown of Warwick, she made the transition to full-time real estate agent. Vikki serves residential and commercial clients in Orange County, NY. Her business is almost exclusively repeat and referral clients. Additionally, she often works with investors to purchase multiple properties. Her prior finance experience is quite useful, especially when it comes to commercial transactions. Vikki establishes credibility with her clients through honesty, transparency and straightforward communication.
Vikki’s approach to listing properties
Each property is approached individually. And each campaign is tailored accordingly. Every listing is accompanied by professional photography and immersive documentation. However, commercial and residential properties may require alternative marketing techniques. All properties have online exposure, which can result in buyers. In 2019, Vikki closed over $8.8 million in sales volume. Further, that is based on average property prices ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.
The importance of community
Vikki believes in giving back to her community. She supports and participates in the local Educational Foundation and is President of the Booster Club for her son’s crew team. Furthermore, she contributes to the local high school’s Career Development Program. There Vikki helps with the Job Shadow Program and annual Career Fair. Free time is for spending with her family.
Looking towards the future
Vikki plans on keeping the growth of her real estate business steady. And she looks forward to expanding her presence in the local commercial market. Most importantly, she wants to keep helping people achieve their real estate goals. Because, according to Vikki, “It’s not about the house or the building itself. A home is so much more than four walls and my goal is for my clients to be happy long after they close.”
Green Team Realty 4th Quarter 2019 Sales Leaders
Congratulations from Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, to our 4th Quarter 2019 Sales Leaders
I am thrilled to see that Nancy Sardo of Green Team New York Realty has won the 2019 Q4 Sales Leader Award. This is no small accomplishment as there are many top producers in our Warwick Office. Nancy is an exceptional Realtor, a great businesswoman and a good friend to myself and many others in our community.
And we are very excited to announce Kristi Anderson for her first Quarterly Sales Leader award with Green Team New Jersey Realty. Kristi has been an outstanding Realtor and citizen in Sussex County for many years, and we are just thrilled to see her rising to the top of the production ranks. This will be the first of many for Kristi.
Nancy Sardo, Green Team New York Realty
Nancy Sardo has been listing and selling homes in Orange County, New York since 2005. Her experience and eye for detail allow her to see potential in resales. And her knowledge as a new construction broker offers building as another option for the buyer who has exhausted the limited resale market.
Nancy has earned her Associate Broker’s License, Seniors Real Estate Specialist (SRES) designation. She is also an Accredited Buyer’s Representative (ABR).
I am grateful for achieving 4th Quarter Sales Leader at Green Team New York Realty. It’s a great group of professionals to work with, even in an independent, competitive industry.We’re in a business that changes day to day. However, “setting goals is the first step in turning the invisible into the visible.” This small but valuable quote from Tony Robbins goes a long way. I had a great year and most of all thank my family, friends, and the clients who are now friends, I have a “dream team” of colleagues to work with. Your referrals are the heart and soul of my business. I promise integrity, commitment, communications and trust.
Kristi Anderson, Green Team New Jersey Realty
When Kristi Anderson joined Green Team New Jersey Realty she brought with her over 18 years of experience. The Broker-Realtor® is an Accredited Buyer’s Representative (ABR) and has Short Sale and Foreclosure Resource Certification.
In addition, as a Vernon resident of 15 years she has a thorough knowledge of the area and local market. This busy mom of four still finds time to volunteer with the Vernon Township School District’s SCA. And she is also a dedicated and hardworking volunteer board member of the Vernon Chamber of Commerce. But perhaps most importantly, she brings a desire to help people make their real estate dreams come true.
I am so happy to be part of a team with the passion, energy and commitment to client service that I have. I do whatever it takes to get the home SOLD! Thank you to all of my clients. You are the reason I love my job!
January 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the January 2020 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, January 21 at 2 p.m. This first housing market update of the year provides a review of 2019, as well as a look forward.
Click Here to Watch the recording of the live Housing Market Update
National Stats
Housing Market Predictions for 2020
Influencers in the industry have made predictions as to where the housing market is headed in 2020. Ken Leon, Global Director of Industry and Equity Research of CFRA Research says there is a strong foundation for the housing market driven by employment growth, higher household income and consumer confidence levels. In addition, he also believes that we’ll start to see millennials beginning to acquire their first homes. There are more millennial buyers than any other generation right now.
George Ratiu, Senior Economists of Realtor.com sees a mixed bag. Supply of new homes begins to offset inventory. We’ll still be talking about inventory issues, but interest rates remain reasonable as home prices flatten. We’re not seeing that flattening of home prices in our area at this time, but its reasonable to assume the growth of price appreciation will slow in 2020.
Freddie Mac expects interest rates to remain low for the next two years, a good thing.
The Positives
As shown above, rates are still historically low. It seems like the experts are in agreement that home prices are going to increase, though Realtor.com is the most pessimistic, predicting just a slight increase. Housing starts (new housing analytic) appear to remain at about 1.3 million. And total home sales look like they may eclipse 6 million, indicative of a very strong 2020 housing market.
The hurdles…
The issue of inventory we’ve been dealing with for some time is continuing. And it appears that it will keep on being an issue for at least 2020.
Promising news regarding national delinquency rate
This is encouraging news. What lead to the major downturn in the 2007/2008 housing market and kept it at such a low level till 2016 was delinquency. Right now we are basically at 20 year lows as far as loans defaulting. This is a great analytic as it means people, even when it’s difficult, are keeping up with their mortgage payments. A lot has to do with confidence as homeowners see their homes increase in value.
American Debt
Thought to be a precursor in relation to the housing market; auto debt has doubled in the last 10 years. Even as auto loan debt continues to rise, the percentage of delinquent borrowers is still at a lower than average level and sales remain strong. However, it warrants watching.
Local – Combined Stats for Orange, Rockland and Westchester Counties, NY
Units Sold
Broken down into quarters, it’s evident 2017 was the peak, year over year.It’s worth keeping track of these trends.
Average Price
Prices are continuing to increase, showing an increase over the last four years at end of 4th quarter.
Ask to Sold Ratio
The last asking price versus what the home sold for. This is softening a bit. The higher the number, the better the sellers market is. As it cools, the better the market becomes for buyers.
Days on Market
We’re seeing days on market coming up, an indication that market is cooling.
Orange County, NY
Units Sold
As opposed to quarterly format, these graphs show month-to-month variations. You can see where things started to fall off back in the end of 2017. While it could be argued that we’ve been in a cooling off period for almost 2 years, we haven’t seen price follow suit.
Average Sales Price
We have been seeing price increase over the last two years, in comparison to the units sold trend. Geoff reiterated that in his experience, price always lags units sold. Here we’re looking at a two-year lag, but much can be attributed to low inventory.
Ask to Sold Ratio
Days on Market
Local – Combined Stats for Sussex, Morris and Passaic Counties, NJ
Units Sold
There is a significantly lower variance for 2019 in units sold.
Average Price
Here again, prices are rising, even though units sold is significantly down.
Ask to Sold Ratio
Average sold to list price ratio is slowing down, a sign that things are cooling off a bit. The higher the number, the hotter the market. The lower, the cooler, and trending towards a buyers market.
Days on Market
These numbers are still holding strong.
Sussex County, NJ
Units Sold
Per Geoff, these are really the most important numbers to look at. And again, in 2017 the numbers started to decline.
Average Sales Price
Ask to Sold Ratio
Days on Market
So, should you buy or sell a home in 2020?
If you’re considering buying a home in 2020, it comes down to individual circumstances. The Consumer Financial Protection Bureau recommends a total debt-to-income ratio below 43% to get a qualified mortgage.
Should you sell your home in 2020? Regardless of the advice here, Geoff says if the time is right for you, the answer is yes! If you’re a Baby Boomer and you have a place to go to but are waiting to see if the market is going to go a little bit higher, that may not be a game you should be playing. There are too many variables. Lots of stats show the market is entering a cooling off period. In an election year you never know what the impact will be. In other words, the market is about as good as it’s going to get for the foreseeable future!
Click Here to Watch the recording of the live Housing Market Update
Housekeeping Items
The next Housing Market Update will be on Tuesday, February 18 at 2 p.m You can sign up at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.
Thank you to our sponsor, REALLY, The Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. And there are no fees on commission exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com
Meet Our Panel for the December 2019 Housing Market Update
Our moderator is Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty. Our panelists are Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty.
We also have Carol Buchanan and Wayne Patterson of Green Team New York Realty.
Geoff opened the discussion by asking the panelists how 2020 was starting off for them. What are they experiencing?
Carol Buchanan
Carol began by stating that she has never seen a January this active. She is working with clients who will be listing, buyers who are anxious to purchase. Again, inventory is still low so when a home comes on the market that is nice and priced well, it sells quickly. In January 2019 Carol predicted that 2019 was going to be a strong year. Geoff asked if she has the same sense for 2020. “Absolutely! Positively. No doubt about it,” was Carol’s response. ” 2020 is going to be a very, very strong year in real estate.” Geoff added that Carol’s predictions have proven to be more correct than anyone else’s he knows, so he always listens to hers!
Wayne Patterson
Geoff then asked Wayne, who has been in the industry a long time, what his take-away was on the stats presented. Wayne replied that what immediately came to mind was that if a buyer is interested, and because inventory is so low, they should have all their ducks in a row. It’s vital to be pre-approved, have all documentation ready to go, etc. Buyers have to be ready to move as there will be competition for homes on the market. “He who makes the offer first, wins!” Sellers who have been waiting to put their home on the market? Wayne’s advice is do it now! It’s going to sell quickly because there is an abundance of buyers.
Geoff’s experience in listing homes is that often people say, “Well, we really don’t have to sell it right now. Maybe we should wait another year because the market might come up another 5 or 6%, money that would come in handy for our retirement.” Geoff asked Wayne his response to that line of thinking. Wayne replied that the homeowner is thinking of selling for a reason. They want to retire and move out of state and alleviate a lot of the expenses that go along with maintaining that home. Taxes, maintenance costs, etc. That money that you think you’re saving by not putting your home on the market now will be spent in the upkeep of the house. If you’re thinking of selling in the Spring because you hear that’s the best time, you may have a better chance of selling your home now if it is in good condition and priced well.
Keren Gonen
Keren thinks that 2020 will be even better than 2019 because interest rates have now made it cheaper to buy a house than to rent. It’s been trending this way for awhile, but not everyone has been aware of what’s happening. In Sussex, Keren said, you can rent a home for $1,900, while a mortgage would cost $1,300! As far as Sellers waiting to list their homes, Keren always advises them to watch Green Team’s Housing Market Update so they can see what the truth is. We bring stats in from various sources; it’s not just our opinion. So when people ask if they should wait for Spring, Keren lets them know she is out with buyers everyday, in the snow, in the freezing cold. And you know when someone is looking for a home in those conditions, they are serious buyers.
In addition, we never know what is going to happen in the future. So if you want to sell and move to a warmer climate, now is the time to do it. Geoff stated it’s good to list now as it also puts you ahead of the competition, when most sellers put their homes on the market. Very often buyers have very definite time constraints. They have to purchase a home by a particular time and couldn’t wait till Spring. And when more inventory comes on the market, there is less competition among buyers and more room to negotiate.
A Global Perspective…
Looking at the DOW, the market is very strong. It looks like the first phase of the US/China Trade Deal is a done deal and seems to be favorable to the US. The replacement of NAFTA with the new trade deal has now gotten through our Congress, but that was causing some wariness in the business sector. So some things that had been hanging over the economy in 2019 seem to be resolving. However, we are in the midst of an impeachment process and election, so we’ll be watching for the impact.
To Contact our Panelists:
Carol Buchanan: 845-705-9162 or carolbuchanan97@gmail.com
Wayne Patterson: wayne@waynepatterson.com or 845-313-5623
Keren Gonen: 551-262-4062
We’ll see you on February 18 at 2 p.m.
December 2019 Housing Market Update
[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the December 2019 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, December 17 at 2 p.m. He began the webinar with an overview of National Stats.
National Stats
Good News, Economically…
Good news on all economic standpoints, not just real estate! Economists seem to be pushing back the recession timetable. It doesn’t look as though many people think a recession will be happening in 2020. A few people think we might even see another five years before we have another recession. It may be that the answer lies somewhere in between.
Increased Purchasing Power
At the end of the day it comes down to monthly cash flow for people. It is almost irrelevant what the price of a house is. It’s much more relevant what it costs on a monthly basis to live in a house.
While prices have increased, mortgage rates have gone down substantially over the last couple of years, making the ability for people to purchase that much greater.
In 2019 there has been a decline in the payment as a percentage of income, meaning that mortgage payment has gone down in relation to income coming in. Another consideration is wage increases. People are making more money over the last few years due to a strong economy. This has led to a sustained positive housing environment. It is now easier and easier for people to buy homes.
Americans are choosing real estate as safest investment
What are Americans thinking about home ownership? People perceive home ownership in a positive light with many benefits. Not just financially, but also in terms of family, stability, community, etc. People are thinking it’s even safer to invest in a home than in a savings account.
Rental rates are out of control!
Rent rates have been out of control. Geoff is an owner of apartment units and it has been very steady. And he finds it remarkable how people will sometimes stay in place and not buy a home. People should jump into home ownership and engage, as there are so many benefits to it. Rent values are increasing, not decreasing.
Orange County, NY
Units Sold
It’s been a mixed bag this year – up some months, down some months. We were up again in November over the past 5 years.. When we have our Housing Market Update in January we’ll be able to look back and review 2019 in its entirety. Geoff has no reason to anticipate any substantial surprises for December.
Average Sales Price
With the exception of March and August, it’s been up consistently. And there is no reason to believe that the rate of appreciation shouldn’t continue to increase modestly throughout 2020.
Ask to Sold Ratio
Ask to sold ratio is the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. It is at a very high ratio. It’s was less than 2% in July, historically a very high number. And even though November dipped down to about 96-1/2%, it’s still a very good number. We are really talking about historical strength here. Even though there are some ups and downs, historically these are very good numbers.
Days on Market
Days on market continues to be low, but it’s ticking up a little now. According to the graph, the lines are converging a little in July and September and it appears to have crossed over in October and. This means that the market is cooling a little, but that’s to be expected.
Sussex County, NJ
Units Sold
Still a bit of mixed bag, but not any month was the highest of the last 3 years. In November we dropped below the last 3 years. While not what we want to see, but it is what it is.
Average Sales Price
Average price is still pretty strong. It took awhile for Sussex County to come around in price appreciation. However, prices seem to be increasing at good level.
Ask to Sold Ratio
Again, the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. While not as strong as in Orange County, still very strong historical numbers.
Days on Market
Sussex is showing a strong market. Again, in November there was crossover, indicating a slight cooling of the market.
Housekeeping Items
The next Housing Market Update will be on Tuesday, January 21 at 2 p.m You can sign up at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.
Thank you to our sponsor, REALLY, The Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. And there are no fees on commission exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com
Meet Our Panel for the December 2019 Housing Market Update
Our moderator is Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty. Our panelist is Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty
Keren has been a consistent panel member, present at each update. Geoff remarked that they’ve been doing this all year long, and it’s been a year of trying to figure out where the market is heading. Yes, it has slowed down, but it’s been a soft landing. It’s been a strong year altogether.
Keren remarked that one of the reasons there were fewer units sold in Sussex County is that there were fewer units listed. Many sellers are deciding to hold on to their houses, on the fence about whether to sell. They want to see what the new year brings, even though their agents are telling them that this is the time to sell. Otherwise they’ll be releasing their property when everyone else is. However, they’re still holding tight.
The other thing she’s noticed is listing prices that are way too high. For example, a house that should have been listed at $200,000 being listed at $250,000 .At that price it just doesn’t make sense and won’t sell. However, the sellers are still holding on. Geoff agreed that there are always overpriced listings. It’s a human condition in any market place. There may be a higher percentage right now. Often people try to hold out for that higher price. He also agreed that lack of inventory is the biggest problem.
Geoff said that the sum total of circumstances hasn’t allowed for rapid increase so maybe there will be a longer sustained recover and rebound to the housing market. Keren is working with sellers who will be listing during the first quarter of the year.
Keren’s parting words of advice:
List your houses now, because we don’t know what will happen!
Geoff agreed that right after the New Year is a great time to get going. It has been a wonderful holiday season with many transactions taking place.
You can contact Keren Gonen at 551-262-4062
By the way, Keren took part in this update from the airport, on her way to a two-week trip to Israel!
We’ll see you on January 21st at 2 p.m.
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Green Team Client Appreciation Day
Green Team Client Appreciation Day – Saying Thank You with Pie
It is no coincidence that our Client Appreciation Day takes place just before Thanksgiving.This is the time of year we reflect on who and what we are grateful for. We express our thanks to family and friends. But it is also the time of year we want our clients to know how much we appreciate them. The Client Appreciation Program is the cornerstone of Green Team Realty’s foundation. While our sales associates express their appreciation throughout the year, the Thanksgiving Pie tradition has become the highlight of the CAP program.
A Noble Tradition
Clients are invited to come to our offices to pick up their Thanksgiving pie. This gift is their sales associate’s way of saying, “Thank you for your business, your referrals, and your friendship.” Whether it’s the Warwick or Vernon office, the atmosphere is the same. There is warmth, happiness, and lots of laughter. And lots and lots of pies! Since Green Team Realty supports local businesses, these gorgeous pies are provided by Noble Pies each year.
Thanksgiving Pies – A Family Event
There is a bond that exists between Green Team’s sales associates, and a bond between sales associates and clients. And these bonds are only strengthened by events such as this. It’s almost like a family reunion. Catching up on how things are going, sharing stories and food. And for Green Teamers there is joy in knowing that in two days a pie given in appreciation will be gracing the Thanksgiving table of a valued client and friend.
November 2019 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the November 2019 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, November 19 at 2 p.m. He began the webinar with an overview of National Stats.
National Stats
Total Home Sales
Geoff is looking for the bump locally because nationally it looks like on a year over year basis there was a bounce. We were down in 2019 through June but then in July there was a little bit of a bounce in the Housing Market through September. It looks as though things are stabilizing a bit. We’ll be watching.
Forecasted Year-Over-Year Percentage Change in Price
In this graphic, the dark blue represents the strongest projections; which states will appreciate at the highest level. Medium blue, where we are, is still very good for price appreciation over the next year or so.
Year-Over-Year Housing Supply
Geoff and panel, prior to the webinar, had been discussing how few homes there were in the market. Needless to say, you can see that the housing supply year-over-year is tight at best. It is getting better, but is still tight. This subject will be included in the Panel Discussion.
2019 Projected Home Price Percentage Appreciate Going Forward
Looking forward to price appreciation as indicated by some of the thought leaders in the industry. They put out stats that indicate their thinking, and it appears that everyone is looking at a minimum of 2 to 3% price appreciation going forward into 2020. It seems that no one believes this housing market is going to fall apart in any way, shape or form.
Mortgage Rates and Mortgage Rate Projections
Mortgage rate projections beyond where we are now look very much the same. It does not appear as though projections are really going up or down.
Orange County, NY
Units Sold
Units sold is what Geoff considers the “mother’s milk” of all the analytics on the housing market. The green line represents 2019 and has pretty much been down year-over-year. The red line represents 2018. We only bounced above 2018 three times during the first ten months of this year. However, we’re still at a very high historic level despite the year-over-year decrease.
Average Sales Price
Average Sales Price is strong. The difference between this year and previous years in the year-over-year is pretty significant. Looking at just year-over-year appears to be a mixed bag. However, historically a very high pricing market.
Ask to Sold Ratio
Ask to sold ratio is the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. It is still very strong. The higher the line, the closer to 100%, means that sellers have to negotiate less off their last asking price. Again, historically very high points, but nonetheless, appears to be cooling off just a little.
Days on Market
Days on market is pretty much lower, though we do see the green line intersecting with the red last month. That really hasn’t happened previously. Again, another small sign of things cooling off.
Sussex County, NJ
Units Sold
In Sussex County we’re also seeing a mixed bag. The green line is bouncing up and down versus 2018 and 2017.
Average Sales Price
The graph indicates a pretty strong pricing market. Prices are about as good as they’ve been in Sussex in six years. If you’re a seller, it is probably not a bad time to think about putting your home on the market.
Ask to Sold Ratio
Again, the ratio between the last asking price and the sold price of a home. This is still very strong. If you’re a seller would you prefer negotiating 2.5 points off your asking price, or almost 6 points? That’s the difference between 20014, 2015 and 2016 and now. Geoff recalls those years as being difficult to get deals done.
Days on Market
Here in Sussex County we don’t see any intersecting lines. Though we have seen some close variances. It is tightening up a bit. We’ll watch to see where that heads.
Housekeeping Items
The next Housing Market Update will be on Tuesday, December 17 at 2 p.m You can sign up at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.
Thank you to our sponsor, REALLY, The Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. And there are no fees on commission exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com
Meet Our Panel for the November 2019 Housing Market Update
Our panelists this month are (left to right): Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty and Carol Buchanan of Green Team New York Realty.
Our moderator is Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty.
Thoughts on where the Orange County Market is heading in 2020
Geoff asked Carol where she sees the NY market heading. She believes 2020 is going to be an excellent year. Inventory is still down, there’s no doubt about that. However, there are very active buyers out there, looking for a nice home in the price range they can afford. They’ll jump on it right away when they find the right home. Inventory is a bit of an issue. But she thinks as more homes start coming on the market 2020 will be a fabulous year.
Geoff remembered that Carol joined the panel of the Housing Market Update about a year ago. And at that time she said that 2019 would be a strong year, although numbers seemed to be deteriorating. Geoff didn’t know where those numbers were headed at that time. His experience as a real estate professional back in 2004 and 2005, when numbers dipped and didn’t come back for 8 years, had him concerned. However, seeing numbers start to dip 18 months ago and now suddenly playing out and maybe coming back together, is a breath of fresh air. So, Geoff congratulated Carol for “calling it” during that HMU and is happy she’s predicting a good year in 2020.
Thoughts on where the Sussex County Market is heading in 2020
Keren agreed with Carol. She thinks that one issue in Sussex County is that a lot of sellers are hanging on to their houses, just waiting to see what happens. Keren said that all homes priced properly are gone the same week that they’re listed. She took some buyers out the previous Monday to look at some houses. Keren told them if they saw something they liked they needed to jump on it. They said, no, they wanted to look at some other houses. Two days later they came back to her and said they wanted to put in an offer. However, the house already had an accepted offer! She hopes they’ll listen to her advice and not wait to put in an offer the next time they see a house they like.
Pricing a Home Properly is Key
Keren emphasized that it’s important for all real estate agents and sellers to make sure the home is priced properly. If you’re looking to sell right away, let your realtor know that this is what you want to do. If you want to sit on the market, they can do that, too. However, if you want to sell, this is the time to do it. In the spring, everyone else will be listing. Geoff agreed that during his 15 years in the industry the one thing that is always true is you have to price it right. It doesn’t matter if it’s in a down market or an up market or somewhere in between. If you don’t price the property right, it’s not going to sell, for many reasons.
Bank Inventory
Geoff always checks in with Keren on foreclosures. He asked if banks were still holding on to the properties, renting them out, or flipping them themselves. Keren said that banks are starting to release properties. Their only two strategies are: We’re going to list high and see if anyone bites because the house is in good condition. Or, we’re going to list really low and have everyone jump at it. Keren, who buys and flips homes, recently went to see a house. There were ten other people there during the half an hour she was there. The listing agent came back with “highest and best.” She’s sure the house will sell higher than it should have. Because there is not enough inventory listed low for the flippers, they’re all going for it.
Appraisals
Geoff asked if either Carol or Karen was experiencing any problems with appraisals. Carol replied that she hasn’t had much trouble with that. Basically homes are appraising with no problem. Geoff stated that about 2 years ago, when prices started to shift dramatically, there were a lot of problems with appraisals. Fortunately, that problem has gone away rather quickly. However, anytime the market turns on a sharp incline, appraisals will be a problem again. They can prevent buyers from getting the loan they need to move the transaction forward. It can be difficult for appraisers to get the comps. If the comps don’t exist, new deals are coming in higher than the last one and the market’s moving up, appraisers have to take a leap of faith. Many were hesitant to do that as the market hadn’t increased in some time. Now that price appreciation has been going on for some time, it seems to be okay.
Keren said she’s always there at appraisals and always has the comps that she gives to her clients. She also tells the appraiser about everything in the house they may not see. That might be foam insulation, updated electric, something in the basement or a whole house generator. She understands that appraisers add a dollar amount for that. That’s been helping her appraisals come in at the correct price.
Lack of inventory in the sweet spot
Referring to middle of the range pricing, Geoff said it’s surprising to see the lack of inventory. Only approximately 6% of the market is in the sweet spot, whereas there is much more inventory at higher levels. Even more significant is more inventory at lower levels (very inexpensive homes, homes needing lots of work, etc.). Geoff thought it interesting and finds that as a society we’re moving away from one-income households. Most households are two income. And they just don’t have time to do renovations or be bothered with it. They want a house to be well located and in good condition. Otherwise, most people don’t want too much to do with it. He asked the panelists if they agreed.
The importance to sellers of having a home that doesn’t require buyers to do renovations and repairs
Carol absolutely agreed. She said looks do matter and when you go up to a home that’s nicely landscaped and well maintained, people just jump on it. Most people are looking for a nice home they can put their own finishing touches to, but which is not overwhelming for them. Geoff said there are some interesting business models popping up around the country. Companies are financing renovations to help sellers get out and maximize their home’s value. And they’re not just providing the financing. They’re doing the design, the build and the financing. It will be interesting to see how these models work out in the dense metropolitan areas they are starting out in. There is a real value to this. Some people will simply not buy a home unless it’s in good shape and finished. So, if you’re a seller, if you don’t have the time and money to do the work, this might be an option.
Geoff has seen many agents, both in the Green Team and other agencies, who go out of their way to assist with that process of helping sellers get their home together and renovated. He talked about Keren literally rolling up her sleeves and clearing up a yard. While Keren isn’t able to do that for everyone, it just demonstrates a willingness to help clients get a good result. He gives credit to all the hardworking realtors in the industry who go out of their way to make that happen. Carol agreed with that, too. A lot of realtors go above and beyond. Geoff said that it’s a testimony to the industry and they deserve a lot of accolades.
Geoff’s quote on Real Estate Professionals
We are the grease on the wheels of the housing industry. Without it, people wouldn’t be getting as much money for their homes, or be able to make the moves that they do. You need the grease to keep the wheels turning – and that’s us!
Keren definitely thinks that when your realtor is willing to go the extra mile for you, that’s what really counts. Most of the people she’s bought and sold homes with were actually people she talked to on a regular basis. Whether it was a Facebook or text message, or an invite to a party. It becomes part of your circle. People that you care for, people you spend time with. In the most stressful time of their lives, to be there and hold their hand and let them know everything will be okay, means a lot. For the client as well as to her, because they’ve allowed her into their lives.
One last question: Do you think home appreciation will increase in 2020 vs. 2019?
Keren absolutely thinks so for Sussex County. Houses that possibly last year or the year before listed lower are now listing higher and selling. She’s pretty sure that trend will continue into 2020.
Carol definitely agrees and thinks that values are going up. No doubt about it!
Here’s how to contact our panelists
Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty – 551-262-4062 (cell): Call or Text. You can also Google Keren to find out more about her.
Carol Buchanan, Green Team New York Realty – 845-705-9162 (cell): Call or Text, Or email her at CarolBuchanan97@gmail.com
Thanks to Melissa Bressette, Marketing Director, Green Team Realty, for putting this webinar together.
We’ll see you on December 17th at 2 p.m.
October 2019 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, president of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the October 2019 Housing Market Update. The webinar was held October 14 at 2 p.m. on Facebook Live.
National Housing Market Statistics
RECESSION RECESSION RECESSION
Everyone’s talking about it. Geoff thinks probably the impending 2020 US elections have a lot to do with that as well. The simple fact is that more and more people are starting to think that it will happen. .Because of that, we need to address it. No matter how much less impact we feel this recession would have on the housing market than the last one was, it’s still going to have an impact.
The above charts show a survey of different analysts and influencers in the economic world. Most think the recession will come in 2020. Again, it will be interesting to see the affect that the elections will have. Needless to say, the vast majority believe the recession will start within the next two years, 2020-2021.
Recessions don’t necessarily mean a bad housing market
A recession does not mean that there has to be a sharp decline in price. Or an overall reduction in home valuations. The last series of recessions dating back to 1980 and only two of them had negative price appreciation. That’s important to note. Geoff believes that the bottom will not drop out like it did in 2008. That was a very scary time for the real estate industry. There are now a lot of economic fundamentals in place that should lead to a better downturn, if one were to come.
Projected Home Price % Appreciation holding steady
Again, stake holders, influencers in the world of economics are predicting that not only will pricing on a national basis not go down, but it will continue to appreciate. Not at the pace seen in the last few years, but these numbers are probably healthier. The rapid market we were seeing wasn’t going to last forever and could not be sustained. There is nothing wrong with appreciation slowing and growing at a slower pace.
Regional projections
Corelogic shares its forecast for Year-over-Year percentage of change in price, according to markets throughout the U.S. From this it appears the northeast is looking good.
Local Housing Market Statistics
Orange County, New York
Geoff had expected the green line for units sold to be lower for the third quarter. However, it really held out very well. If you look at July, it was above all previous six years. August was a touch below. And September was even. So it was a good third quarter.
Average Sales Price is doing well. It’s well above where it’s been the last 5 or 6 years.
This is the last asking price versus the sales price. The market is becoming a little more competitive. Sellers are having to negotiate a little more off their selling price. Again, as the market is cooling it’s bound to happen. However, we are not seeing a precipitous decline here.
Days on market is still extremely low. Not one month dipped above any of the previous years.
Sussex County, New Jersey
Although the year started out slower in Sussex County, it caught up in the third quarter. The third quarter was strong, which is important.
Average price is holding pretty strong.
Despite a few dips, Ask to Sold Ratio is remaining at a very high level.
Days on market, not one month has risen above previous years, showing that the market is still strong.
Life events determine buying a home, not market data
Buying a home is based on our life events and where our lives are going. This is good advice. As realtors we want you to find a good home in the place you want to be. If the above three items are all in check, it doesn’t really matter what market you’re in. You’ll make a good decision and you’ll buy a good home.
Housekeeping items
Sign up for Housing Market Updates at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU. And thank you to our sponsor, REALLY. Join the Real Estate Referral Community for free at REALLYHQ.com.
Meet our Panel
From Left to Right: Toni Kreusch of Green Team New York Realty and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty
The Fear Factor
Geoff started the discussion, asking about the fear factor. Should people be afraid? Should they hesitate? Keren replied that in her experience, people are always afraid of the unknown. That’s one of the reasons people are holding back, whether selling or buying. However, what she did with one of her clients who was buying in Highland Lakes, was advise him to review the previous month’s housing market update. After taking all the information in, that client put an offer on a property and wound up getting the house he wanted. Before learning more about the market, he had been apprehensive about even buying at that time.
Also, Keren reiterated that interest rates are really low and should be capitalized on. Whether refinancing, buying, downsizing, this is the time to do it. Geoff agreed that rates have been so low it’s remarkable. Especially now, at the end of the day, Geoff’s advice is that it’s all about monthly cash flow. What is it going to cost me each month to live there? And do I have enough income minus my living expenses to be able to pay my mortgage, save for retirement, etc. So, financing really matters.
Toni agrees that people can purchase more house for their money and often pay the same or less if you are currently renting. By owning a home you’re building wealth. What better way to save money as you move into your future?
Would a buyer’s market not be the ideal time to sell?
It’s hard being a broker because there are always two sides to a discussion: there are buyers and there are sellers. One would think if we were in a buyer’s market then it would not be the ideal to sell. There would be lots of inventory, you’d be competing against other people, downward pressure on the price of your home, etc., as opposed to a seller’s market. Geoff believes it is the right time to sell. If you’re someone at or near retirement who has been thinking about getting out it is the right time. Even though we’ll be seeing price appreciation for another few years, even if it goes flat or goes down a little, we’re not going to see a roaring uptick at any point of time in the very near future. Pricing is probably as good as it’s going to get. He asked if Keren and Toni agreed.
Keren agreed. And Toni said we’re experiencing a special time right now, with low-interest rates and low inventory. It’s a great time to buy and sell. From a seller’s perspective, Geoff would advise sellers to put their home on the market now.
Is the Holiday Season not the ideal time to sell?
With Thanksgiving, Christmas, and Hanuka coming, these are low transaction months. Many people put aside their buying regimen during the holidays. Less people are identifying homes in November, December, January. However, one phenomenon Geoff has seen was the buyer who needed to buy a home in December. There wasn’t a lot of inventory and they paid too much for a house because they had to buy. A few months later lots of inventory rolled out and prices were lower. As we head into the holiday season, there are still buyers out there who haven’t found what they wanted yet. They don’t care if it’s December. They’ll still want to look and will buy the right house..
More than most any year that he’s seen since being in the business, Geoff recommends if you are a seller thinking about selling, if your home is ready, put it on the market. Don’t wait until Spring. It’s very busy now. Right now is a very good time. Toni said they still have people calling in and coming into the office who appear to be serious buyers, not just lookers. Keren stated that November has always been her biggest month. People looking in the winter are serious. You’ll probably get less traffic, but the showings are going to be more serious. If it’s priced right, there is enough intensity in the market to get transactions.
This is the time to buy – and the time to sell
Geoff predicted that if someone is going to buy a home and is planning on living there at least a 7-10 year period, they’re fine. Even if the market goes down during that time, it’s going to come back up and re-appreciate. The last downturn lasted a really long time. Looking at it on a hyper-local level, it lasted 8 years regarding pricing. It dropped precipitously in 2008 and did not restabilize until 2016. Eight years of price declines is rare in terms of the history of the housing market. He just does not see that happening this time around. While the market may continue to soften for some time, he doesn’t think it will drop that low. And he believes it will come up relatively soft, compared to the rapid rise the last time. This follows the principles of physics. For every action, there is an equal and opposite reaction. The markets tend to do the same thing.
Geoff asked Toni and Keren if they agreed with the premise: if a buyer is going to live in a home 7-10 years, they should be just fine in terms of outliving any market turbulence. Keren did agree, and also reiterated that now is the time to sell. If you’re looking to downsize and you’re on the fence, this is it. We have good qualified buyers and low-interest rates but don’t know how long this will last. Like Toni mentioned, sometimes you can purchase with a mortgage less than a rental. That’s important to mention again because it is the time to buy and sell.
Suitable Housing clause
Geoff mentioned that you can structure your listing to make it subject to finding suitable housing. For example, if a retiree worried about finding housing after selling their home a suitable housing clause could be utilized. However, you do have to give buyers reasonable terms on that clause. It is an option to discuss with your Green Team sales associate if this is a concern.
Selling in a bad market
Geoff recounted that a majority of his listings were during a really bad market. Listings would languish and go on and on, very different than the market we’ve been seeing the last 3-5 years here. To those buyers or sellers going through the transaction process, Geoff offers some advice. Sellers may have a home listed and haven’t had any showings, or maybe many showings but no offers, or offers that fell through. Sometimes the reason that sellers are in that place is because the property is priced too high. A lot of people are not willing to admit it, but it is a fact. To those in that situation, what is going to matter most to you when closing is done is not the bottom line on the closing statement. It’s going to be that it’s over and done and you can move on with your life. Far too many people are trying to get an extra $5,000 or $10,000 while they’re spending $1,000 a month on taxes, interest payments, utility costs, maintenance. That all adds up quickly. They’re also not factoring their own well being, factoring in the stress that comes with the whole process. If you’re a seller and you’re thinking of selling, go for it!
Keren’s thoughts
Keren agreed. She stated that sometimes sellers have it in the back of their mind that they are going to get “X” amount of dollars for their listing and they end up being listed for 6, 7, 8 months. As an agent, Keren believes it’s imperative to make clear that we have several different options. If you are looking to sell quickly, this is where we need to be. This is your market value because as realtors, this is what we do day in and day out. For some sellers the home has sentimental value and they are also concerned about the bottom line. There’s a thin line to walk when discussing price.
Toni’s thoughts
Toni said that working with motivated sellers is helpful. So is aggressive marketing, which is done by your agent. And, if your home is not selling, you should certainly consider a price reduction.
Final thoughts
Geoff hoped that this discussion helps people in this position, who may be agonizing over whether to drop their price. Remember, if the house is priced right, you’re going to get a good offer with reasonable terms. Buyers are looking to move on, too. They need a house, need a place for their family.
Reminder: The next Housing Market Update will take place life on Facebook Tuesday, November 19, 2019 at 2 p.m.
To reach our panelists if you’d like to buy or sell a property or learn more about the housing market
Keren Gonen – 551-262-4062
Toni Kreusch – 845-283-2450
