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Sept 2019 Housing Market Update
Recap
Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, invited viewers to the Sept 2019 Housing Market Update. The update took place on Sept 17, 2019, 2 p.m. on Facebook Live.
National Housing Market Statistics
Recession Worries
According to Geoff, we’re starting to hear the word recession far more than we did a year ago, far more than six months ago. The big buzz is, are we headed to a recession? If so, when? And how dramatic will it be? The bottom line is most people think we won’t be experiencing anything like we went through from 2008 to around 2016.
“The housing crash during the Great Recession left a lasting impression… But as we look ahead to the next recession, it’s important to recognize how unusual the conditions were that caused the last one, and what is different about the housing market today.” Jeff Tucker, the Zillow Economist
Reasons why housing prices and the real estate market should remain strong
- Many people are in a very strong equity position as far as their home goes. That’s the amount of money that is in the value of the home. If you know the fair market value of your home minus the pay off amount of your mortgage, the difference is the equity. Keren Gonen and our Producer, Melissa Bressette, were discussing that over one-third of US households are free and clear of any mortgage. That is a very strong number. From a balance sheet perspective, we’re doing very well as a nation.
- We’ve had good appreciation over the last few years. It continues and most experts agree that despite the market slowing, appreciation is still going to be something that will continue for the next 12 months at least. The question is really by how much.
- Inventory levels are still relatively low. Days on market are low, bidding wars are still happening.
- Mortgage and interest rates are fantastic. Geoff thinks that if you had asked a lot of mortgage professionals a year ago where rates would be now, they would not have predicted how low rates would be. The low rate environment is continuing to fuel the real estate market.
- There is a level of affordability we haven’t seen in a long time. When you package everything together; earnings, mortgage rates, taxes, prices of homes, etc.you get affordability rates that are historically high. That is, how affordable it is for the average American to buy a home.
Equity
Here we’re seeing year over year appreciation growth. It is still very strong. Still where it was a couple of years ago. Percent of negative equity share refers to who is in negative equity situation. That occurs when the mortgage payoff is higher than the fair market value of the home. That has been steadily declining since 2010 and we are now at the lowest level since then. Those are very good signs.
Appreciation
A quick glance at the map of the U.S. on the left side shows nothing is below “0” and everything is still appreciating. Then we review the right side, which examines year-over-year change in price by price range. All price points are in grey. Lower end homes have a bigger market, more demand, which drives up price. However, even the high range homes are experiencing appreciation.
Pricing
Corelogic,a leading provider of statistical data on the housing market is projecting, per the above map, that over the next 12 months the nation will go up another 5.2%. That is a very healthy rate of appreciation. In addition, some other sources, shown here on the right, are predicting a fairly substantial level of appreciation, even into 2021.
Inventory
Historically, left to right, we are still at a very low level of inventory, which means that pricing should continue to increase. or stay strong year over year. Year-over-year inventory levels, we’ve had a bump at the end of 2018, beginning of 2019. Now we can see inventory starting to tighten up again a little.
Mortgages/Interest Rates
Where are they headed? Where are they now? We can see from January 2018 to today the rates that could not have been predicted a few years ago to be so low. And we recognize that this is a good spot that we’re in.
Affordability
On the graph to the left, the yellow line represents median home price while the blue represents purchasing power. It’s evident that there is much less of a variance between the two up to 2005, which was the worst period of time. But we’ve stayed strong. During the crash, home prices went down while affordability went up. And it hasn’t really changed. There is still ta good opportunity for people to secure one of the most important assets they ever will own – a home.
Historical Recession Data
Geoff agrees with everyone who believes that this recession will be much shorter than the last one. The housing market is in a better position. We have better fundamentals in place than we did the last time around. There is not nearly as much sub-prime lending as there was. Of the last five recessions, home prices went down in just two. Home prices went up in the other three.
Having gone through the last recession, it can be hard to believe that prices can actually rise. But maybe this one will go that way as well.
Resource Center
Each month we bring you stats, data and quotes from various trusted industry sources. These resources will now be available to you in our monthly Housing Market Update recap blog post, which can be accessed from GreenTeamRealty.com/hmu/ under Housing Market Recap.
Local Housing Market Updates
Orange County, New York
Units Sold
It’s been a mixed bag this year. The green line is 2019. It’s fair to say the number of units sold is consistent with 2018. We’re definitely seeing a slowing in the number of transactions. But, it’s still a very high historical level. And it’s still a very strong market. So, yes, it’s cooling, but it’s still a very high rate.
Average Sales Price
The average sales price took a little dip this month.That doesn’t mean that prices will ultimately continue to go down year-over-year over 2018. However, units sold has been slowing. Geoff believes we’ll see a softening of the market, rather than a crash.
Ask to Sold Ratio
The last asking price versus what the house sold for and the ratio thereof. As you an see, this year it’s been high, meaning sellers haven’t had to negotiate much off of their asking price. However, recently we’re seeing a dip, which is worth noting.
Days on Market
The days on market have consistently been lower than the previous 6 years, remaining a strong factor in the market.
Sussex County, New Jersey
Units sold
There is a similar situation here in Sussex County; a mixed bag, up and down. However, it’s clear that in the last 18 months or so, the number of units sold has been slowing.
Average Price
It’s interesting that all through this time period average price in Sussex was kind of languishing. And now we see prices taking off,. almost the highest level of prices in the county in almost 8 years. Only July of 2018 was slightly higher.
Ask to Sold Ratio
The ask to sold ratio is again similar to what we’re seeing in Orange County. at 97, 98%, it’s still a strong market with sellers only having to come down a little bit off their asking price.
Days on Market
Days on market are lowest over last 6 years. The market continues to be strong. Further discussion will take place with our panel.
Thank you to our sponsor
Meet our Panel
Keren Gonen is from Green Team New Jersey Realty and is a regular panelist on our Housing Market Updates.
Geoff asked Keren what’s actually happening in the field; if there are signs of the market taking a downturn.
Keren stated that it’s important to note that there are still people buying. still people selling, and there are still bidding wars due to low inventory. On both sides of the border we’re dealing with a lack of good houses. Now that it’s so easy and affordable to buy a good home, it’s really a question of inventory. Some sellers are on the fence, waiting to hear what will happen in 2020. Agents and Sellers would like more inventory to choose from. However, if agents educate their sellers we’ll see a lot more houses on the market in the coming months.
Geoff asked if Keren has found buyers becoming more picky as time goes on. Keren replied that it’s the opposite; Buyers are rushing to put in offers on the houses that they like. She said we want to make sure that good houses on the market do sell quickly, because that makes everyone look good. Whether it’s the listing agent or selling agent, everyone does better in that type of a market.
From the Seller’s perspective, Geoff asked if Keren agreed that we’re not in a market where they can list at any price and sell. Keren stated that surprisingly all the listings she’s had have either come in on point asking price or a few thousand dollars above asking price due to bidding wars. In addition, they’re going under contract very quickly. Attorneys are moving them along, with attorney review much faster than earlier in the year and last year. She had one listing got out of attorney review in literally 48 hours, which was a first for Keren.
Pricing
Geoff said he was sure that Keren was choosing comparables carefully to make sure the information is accurate and she’s setting a good asking price. She replied, absolutely. That’s the first thing – Listing Agent 101. You want to make sure you do your comps properly so that you don’t sit on the market. Geoff stated that ‘s the message to all Sellers. The hardest conversation to have as realtors is price reduction. It’s kind of like having mud on your face. We’re the ones who bring in the comps, make recommendations on what we feel the fair market is for their home, Many Sellers don’t listen and just want to list at the price they want. But many people do listen. However, sometimes a price reduction is necessary. However, no matter what market you’re in, you have to price it right.
Keren said one of the things she does with all of her Sellers is ask them what their time line is for selling their home. Meaning, are we okay to sit on the market for 3, 4, 5, 6 months? Or are we looking to get an offer within the next month to 2 months. Then, according to what they tell her that’s where she prices the house. She has had clients that tell her they don’t care when they move, the house is paid off and they’re not in a rush. And they want a specific amount for their house. So Keren tells them that’s okay as long as they understand that according to her market analysis, they won’t sell until we reach this price. As long as they understand that, she’s fine with listing it at that price. Ultimately it’s always the Seller’s decision.
The recommendation
Price it right from the beginning. Price it to sell from the get go. You’re likely to get a higher price. There is never a better time to sell your home than when you first list it. It’s new, there are buyers out there waiting for the next house to come out on the market. They’ve been out there looking and haven’t found what they’re looking for yet. Now your home is new and it’s on the market.
Bank Inventory
Geoff asked Keren what she is seeing as far as bank-owned inventory. He considers Keren to be a leading expert in Sussex County on the subject. Keren stated that they are not seeing too much being released by the banks. Whatever was out there was sold. She hasn’t seen anything new that’s affordable for an investor or flipper or someone who wants to take on renovations on their own. It has been quite a few weeks since she’s seen those. She has seen some that are borderline, with a few things missing, but those are priced too high. There really isn’t any new release of inventory from them.
Geoff then asked if Keren is still seeing bank-owned properties continue to be rented, an anomaly that we’re seeing over the last 5-6 years. As far as Keren knows, they are, remarking that it seems banks now want to be landlords as well. Geoff mentioned some clients who rented a bank-owned property and once they got in there was problem after problem. It was discovered that there was a lot of substandard that had been done. Caution people buying inventory to make sure that the renovations have been done correctly. The flips that Keren has seen by banks are usually bid out to the lowest bidder and that reflects in the workmanship.People can get caught up in the moment; the price seems right. And they may think they’re getting a better deal because the property is bank-owned.
Wrapping it up
Geoff has been in the real estate industry for going on 15 years. He has worked a lot of hours every week during those years and developed a great appreciation for agents like Keren, working in the field.The housing market in this country would not be what it is without the hardworking agents. They keep data accurate, make sure clients needs are met. Other market places around the world are not nearly as well run as they are here. We are getting into an age where it may be possible to just buy a home from Zillow offers, etc. However, the expertise, knowledge and support offered by real estate agents cannot be duplicated. Geoff’s final word… Find a Realtor!
Keren Gonen can be reached at: 551-262-4062.
October in Orange and Sussex Counties
It’s October in Orange and Sussex Counties – and we know what that means!
Fall is in full bloom and pumpkins dot the fields throughout these sister counties. Leaves change color, providing a breathtaking landscape. During October in Orange and Sussex Counties, there is a lot to see and a lot to do, culminating in Halloween. And Green Team Realty is delighted to share activities and events with you to help you enjoy this beautiful fall month.
Fall Recipes and indoor and outdoor home projects and decorating ideas for the season
Better Homes and Gardens shares 53 pumpkin recipes, one for every day of fall. As this is a busy time of year for most everyone, how about 20 Make-Ahead Famiiy Dinners from RealSimple.com. Further, Better Homes & Gardens gives us Delicious Fall Comfort Food recipes to enjoy..
And, as the weather cools down, using the oven seems like a fitting idea. So Southern Living gives us 30 Fall Cookie and Bar Recipes Every Baker Needs. Finally, Southern Living also gives us 68 Fall Table Decor Ideas That Will be the Hit of Your Party. These gorgeous seasonal decorations will enhance entertaining and family meals (and dessert), as well. And there are beautiful creations to help you start planning for your Thanksgiving table.
Better Homes and Gardens provides you with 8 Landscape Ideas for Curb Appeal. Of course, this is the time of year for a special kind of curb appeal. HomeBNC has 28 DIY projects to celebrate this time of year. And HouseBeautiful.com has 45 Festive Outdoor Halloween Decorations to Trick Out Your House. There are lots of great ideas for getting into the “spirit” of the season! And while you’re busy taking care of outdoor chores and projects, your slow cooker will be brewing up a batch of Pumpkin Spice Latte!
Orange County, NY – Things to do, places to go
Pumpkin Festival at Hill-Hold Museum. 128 Route 416, Campbell Hall. Saturday, October 5, 12 p.m. to 4 p.m. Pumpkin rolling, face painting, waxing leaves, scarecrow making and hay rides. Refreshments available for sale. $3/person.
Applefest. Downtown Warwick. Sunday, October 6, 9 a.m. to 5 p.m. Vendors, live music and entertainment, children’s carnival, food and, of course, all things apple.
Warwick Children’s Book Festival. Railroad Green Park, Warwick. Saturday, October 12, 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Live music and visits from 75 children’s authors and illustrators. In case of rain, the event will be held at Warwick Valley Middle School, 225 West St.
Sugar Loaf Arts & Crafts Fall Festival. Kings Highway, Sugar Loaf. Columbus Day Weekend, October 12, 13 and 14, 10 a.m. to 5 p.m. Enjoy arts, crafts, music, food and a beer garden in this charming artisan crafts village.
Sussex County, NJ – Things to do, places to go
Harvest, Honey and Garlic Festival. Sussex County Fairgrounds, 37 Plains Rd, Augusta. Saturday, October 12, 10 a.m. to 4 p.m. Farmers Market, vendors, children’s activities, and a variety of honey and garlic products. There will also be educational displays from the beekeepers. 973-579-0500.
Newton Fall Festival. Spring Street, Newton. Sunday, October 13, 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Free family event with classic car show, live music, costume contest, vendors and crafts. 973-383-3521
Dog Walk of the Dead. Sussex County Fairgrounds, 37 Plains Rd, Augusta. Saturday, October 19, 5 p.m. to 8 p.m. All proceeds benefit “Oscar: One Step Closer Animal Rescue.” There will be vendors, costume contests, live music, food, a classic car showcase. Most importantly, there will be animal adoptions.
Last – but not least – Things to do on Halloween
And, since October in Orange and Sussex Counties ends in Halloween, take your pick of the events in these sister Counties.
- Check out Hudson Valley Magazine‘s Halloween Guide.
- For New Jersey’s haunted houses and info on nearby attractions, check out newjerseyhauntedhouses.com.
- Heaven Hill Farm’s Great Pumpkin Festival.is the largest Fall Festival in Northern New Jersey. There is plenty of room on this 110 acre farm for the 40 family-friendly activities, and lots of food. Of course, that includes apple cider and apple cider donuts. Plus, there are Corn and Hay mazes, There are just too many activities to list here, so check out the website for activities, days and hours, and ticket prices.451 State Route 94, Vernon. 973-764-5144
- Pure Terror Scream Park and Haunted Houses at Museum Village, Monroe, Thursday Oct 31 – 7:30 p.m. to 9:30 p.m. Friday and Saturday, Nov 1 & 2, 7:30 to 10 p.m. According to the website, Pure Terror is a 9 Haunted House walk through attraction. It’s one of the world’s largest and scariest haunted houses.. Also, there is a huge Halloween-themed midway with lots of music, food and photo ops for everyone. 1010 State Route 17M, Monroe NY. Visit the website for more details. Also, you can purchase tickets online.
- For those that prefer a little less “terror,” Museum Village offers No Scare Halloween on Saturday Oct. 19 and Sunday Oct. 20. 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. Parade around the grounds in not-so-scary costumes and take part in lots of kid-friendly crafts and games. The website will offer more details as event gets closer. 1010 State Route 17M, Monroe, NY. 845-782-8248
And if you prefer to stay home
hgtv.com has 45 Easy Halloween Party Ideas. Whether planning a party for kids, adults or both, there are lots of unique ideas for food and decorations here. Goodhousekeeping.com has 60+ Spooky Ideas for your Best Halloween Party Ever. You’re sure to find some inspiration at these links.
If you prefer to spend a quiet Halloween with the family, redbookmag.com has recommendations for the 47 Best Halloween Movies for Kids. This link will also lead you to easy recipes, crafts and costumes.
Have a wonderful October and a Happy Halloween.
Remembering Denise Schmidt
Remembering Denise Schmidt with love
We often refer to Green Team Realty as a family. And the sudden, tragic passing of Denise Schmidt has left the Green Team family reeling in shock and disbelief. Yet in grief there is also a coming together. And a desire to support Denise’s children and siblings, as well as each other at this sad time.
Denise was one of the first sales associates to join what was then Green Team Home Selling System. And for the past 12 years, Denise has been a bus driver for the Warwick Valley Central School District. She was a friend as well as a business associate. And she was a vibrant member of the community. Denise’s story is about a life well-lived and the impact she had and continues to have on those around her, inspiring heroism, friendship, caring and love.
The Warwick Varsity Tennis Team – Heroism in Action
Much has been written in local media about Denise, and about the Warwick Varsity Tennis Team. Denise was the regular driver for the girls’ away matches. They were heading home after an away game when Denise suffered a medical emergency, slumping over the steering wheel. The bus veered off the I-84 on ramp at Exit 28, down into a grassy ravine, and hit a tree. On that bus were 22 students and their coach. Thankfully, the students and coach were not injured. To many, it seemed that Denise was taking care of her team, making sure they’d be safe, even as she was herself in crisis. And her team took care of her. The coach and one of the students, who is studying nursing at BOCES, went into action. They provided CPR until the paramedics arrived. And despite the frightening experience, the girls remained focused on Denise and her condition.
While waiting for updates on Denise’s condition, the team began making plans. They dedicated their next home game to honor Denise. Sadly, when she passed away the game became a memorial tribute. Team members wore green ribbons to remember Denise and to show support of her work at the Green Team. The girls then created a memorial homecoming parade float. And they began selling green wrist bands to help raise money to Denise’s family. As in most small towns, communities rise up to face challenges together. This group of young women has shown grace, courage and commitment to a woman who was dedicated to them.
Green Team Realty – A Call to Action
There is another truth about small towns. News makes its way quickly throughout the community. Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, and Lucyann Tinnirello, Broker Manager at Green Team New York Realty began receiving texts about the accident. Immediately they made their way to Orange Regional Medical Center to be with Denise’s family. She was then transferred to Westchester Medical Center. Geoff began sending updates and prayer requests to everyone at Green Team. And a fundraising effort was undertaken to raise money for Denise’s children.
The Visitation and Memorial Service
The Memorial Visitation was held on Friday the 13th at Lazear-Smith & Vander Plaat Memorial Home in Warwick. Dennin, Donald, Derek and Dana graciously greeted those who came to pay tribute to their mother. And come they did. Denise touched many lives.
Her friends and co-workers from the Green Team gathered to gain comfort from each other, and to share memories of this remarkable woman. Amidst the tears there were smiles and there was laughter. Knowing that a tribute would be written for Denise, the question went around. What one word would you use to describe her? And the descriptions poured out. Kind. Caring. Amazing. Spitfire. Vivacious. Real. Ballsy. Determined. Humble. Feisty. Supermom.
Geoff Green stepped in to arrange for the location for Denise’s memorial service. On Saturday, September 14, family and friends gathered together at Spring Brook Farm to celebrate the life of this extraordinary woman.
The Green Team Remembers Denise
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty:
Denise Schmidt was the kind of Realtor who would never consider the paycheck, but would simply focus on who needed help. There are a countless number of people in our marketplace who were in tricky Real Estate situations. And Denise would turn those situations into positive outcomes. Her determination was remarkable.
But it didn’t end there. The determination with her children was even more impressive. Denise did whatever needed to be done to provide a good environment for her four children. She left the four kids in great shape. They are all successful in their own right, but most importantly they are kind and caring individuals who will inevitably go out of their way to help others.
As a friend Denise was a “barrel of laughs”. Inevitably, after every Green Team social event, my wife and I would be convinced by Denise to continue the festivities. The laughs never stopped. Denise was a bus driver with a trucker’s mouth! One of her endearing traits was her ability to tell it the way it was. I always appreciated that from her. I could always count on her direct nature to give me feedback on things.
In the end, she worked until she died, and I don’t think she would have had it any other way. She always felt better when she was working to help someone and she did just that right until the end. She will be sorely missed by us all.
Donna Roberts, Agent Service Manager & Property Manager at Green Team New York Realty:
She was this quiet angel. If you mentioned something to her, like you were having a tough time or needed something, she’d do everything she could to help you. I stayed after work one day to help her with a listing. Then, when I came home the next day, there was a bottle of wine and a thank you note that Denise had left on my front porch. And last year some of us had been talking about how nice it would be to have a small fridge in the office for our lunches. So, the next day she brought in a fridge for us. These are the kind of things that Denise would do for people. No fanfare, no accolades. She just reached out in kindness. I will miss that about her, along with her “tell it like it is” view on the world.
Karen Gauvin, Licensed Agent & Realtor, Green Team New York Realty:
As a friend of Denise long before becoming a business associate, and as a mom of one of the team members on the bus that night, there is so much to share. Parents of girls on the team were notified that there had been a bus accident. We were told the kids were being checked at the scene and we could pick them up at the State Police barracks in Montgomery. Denise had been driving, so I knew the team was in good hands. We didn’t know much else at the time.
I was fortunate to have the help of another friend and co-worker, Tammy Scotto. Tammy drove me to pick up my daughter; I was too anxious to go on my own. We passed the site of the accident and just hugged each of the girls as they were released from the State Police to their families. It was truly frightening.
Learning what happened
We learned more details. Hailey told us what a happy time the team had with Denise prior to the crash. And, as their regular bus driver for their away games for the past several years, the girls knew her well. Hailey also spent a few minutes alone on the bus with Denise. She told me what a great mood Denise had been in, happy and chatty. I also learned how amazing the girls had been after such a terrifying event. Despite having gone through such a difficult and harrowing experience, the girls were strong, caring more about Denise’s condition than what they had been through.
After learning that Denise had passed, the team wanted to pay tribute to her. The girls dedicated their September 9 game to Denise’s memory. And while they did win, the lessons learned from sudden and tragic loss were what really mattered. Appreciating what is truly important, cherishing memories, being kind. They also dedicated their homecoming parade float to Denise and have been raising money for her family to help with expenses. And they will continue to hold Denise’s memory in their hearts. I’ll be sharing information on future events as they are planned, so we can support our team in their efforts to remember Denise. Together we will keep her legacy alive. And we can all remind ourselves what really matters.
Lucyann Tinnirello, Broker Manager, Green Team New York Realty:
Denise was a special person, and that carried through to her professionalism. She was always willing to help, and to share her knowledge. She served as a mentor to several of the newer agents, teaching them what she knew. Denise was an incredibly hard working single mom, and there lies her greatest accomplishment. Four incredible children who share their mom’s kindness and capacity for sharing.
Jennifer DiCostanzo, NYS Licensed Real Estate Associate Broker, Green Team New York Realty:
Looking through my photos I came across these and was filled with lovely memories. I had to smile, remembering years of wrapping Holiday Baskets for the food pantry with Denise and our group of volunteers. Each year we waited for her to arrive after her morning school bus run. And each year we nominated her as our official Green Team Basket Wrapper. I know when it’s time to wrap our Thanksgiving and Christmas baskets we’ll be remembering Denise with love and laughter. And be grateful that we had this wonderful person in our lives.
Lucyann Tinnirello, Jennifer DiCostanzo, Linda Vandeweert, Denise Schmidt and Donna Roberts
Denise Schmidt
Please share your memories of Denise
Denise Schmidt made an impact on so many lives. We hope that your memories will become part of this memorial. She will always be a part of the Green Team family, always loved, never forgotten.
Green Team Realty 2019 Summer Social
Green Team Realty 2019 Summer Social … A Family Gathering
It’s a familiar scene. As summer ends, families gather to enjoy one more fun day in the sun. And the Green Team is no different. Children race around the grounds, laughing and playing. Adults gather at picnic tables, enjoying the food, beautiful weather, and the company. The Sales Associates of Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty work hard all year. However, the Summer Social is a day to unwind and introduce their families to their Green Team Family. Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, understands the importance of having days like this. Events where everyone can kick back, talk shop or talk family. And just relax and be together!
Thanks to our sponsors, and to all the Green Team’ers who brought Pot Luck dishes! The food was fantastic. Further, the weather could not have been more perfect. Finally, we could not have asked for a more wonderful setting than Spring Brook Farm.
Spring Brook Farm
This beautiful family farm is owned by Marie Pennings. Spring Brook Farm is a wedding and special event destination. But it was also the perfect venue for the Green Team Summer Social! Besides the acres of land, perfect for games and just running around, many also took advantage of the swimming pool. Of course there was lots of room for tables and food stations. And the lovingly restored barn provided a look back at the history of this special place. Finally, there were the absolutely gorgeous views.
Thank you to all our wonderful sponsors!
The sponsors for our Summer Social helped make this a day to remember! We appreciate their contributions to what was an incredible event. Thanks to:
Party Heroes
Amy Green, Vice President of Mortgage Lending, Guaranteed Rate
amy.green@rate.com, www.rate.com/amygreen
(O) 973-939-8688 (C) 845-545-4315 (F) 312-462-1135
Beer
David Willner, Franchise Owner/Licensed Inspector, Pillar to Post Home Inspections
dave.willner@pillartopost.com, pillartopost.com/davidwillner
Beverages & Sangria
Laura Moritz, Director of Sales, Northeast Region, Classic Mortgage
(C) 845-222-8270
Ice Cream
Bob and Alison Miller, Road Trip Mobile RV Service
facebook.com/roadtriprvservice
973-903-0104
Picnic Accessories
Donohue, O’Connell & Riley PLLC, Estate, Tax & Elder Law Attorneys
844-50-TRUST
and last, but not least…
Askin & Hooker, LLC, Attorneys at Law, Residential and Commercial Real Estate, New York and New Jersey
973-729-7711
Family Snapshots
Of course, what would a family get-together be without photos to remember the day by.
Vikki Garby is Green Team New York Realty’s 2019 2nd Quarter Sales Leader
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“Vikki Garby is a smart, focused Real Estate professional. Furthermore, the analytical abilities developed during her time as an investment banker and real estate investor contribute to her success in both Residential and Commercial Real Estate. It’s exciting watching Vikki grow her Real Estate Business. Green Team New York Realty is extremely blessed to have her as part of our Agency.”
More about Vikki…
As mentioned above, Vikki was an investment banker for a major bank in New York City. During that time she reviewed and negotiated complex contracts on a regular basis. And it was also during that time that Vikki became a real estate investor, negotiating on her own behalf as a buyer.
Her love of real estate and skill at navigating its many transactional parts lead her to obtain her license so that she could help others achieve their real estate goals. Furthering her education and skills, Vikki obtained her Commercial and Investment Properties Real Estate Certification (“CIREC”) last summer.
Vikki had this to say about her recent achievements:
“I have been blessed with a great year working with wonderful and supportive clients. Their loyalty has allowed me to grow my business each year. It has been an extremely rewarding and fulfilling year so far. The great team I have at Green Team New York Realty helps tremendously.”
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July 2019 Housing Market Update
July 2019 Housing Market Update
Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed viewers to the July 2019 Housing Market Update, held on Tuesday, July 16 at 2 p.m. He started off by presenting the most recent numbers.
National Housing Market Statistics
Pricing – Where are things headed?
Looking at year-over-year change in price, only one state, North Dakota, is at a 0% price appreciation change year-over-year. Pretty much we’re seeing gains in price throughout the country. Idaho is leading the charge. The northeast is a little weaker than many other areas of the country.
Corelogic is a substantial company that aggregates a lot of data from many sources. They are a player in regards to legitimate statistics in the real estate industry. Essentially they are predicting the year-over-year price change will round out at about 5.6% which is up from the previous prediction of 3.6%. There is enough economic data to support the higher prediction.
House Appreciation
Over 100 economists, real estate experts and market strategists made predictions on cumulative house appreciation by 2023. The Bulls predicted 27.7%, the Bears 6.7%, while all projections indicated 16.8%. It is significant that even the Bears, the most cautious participants, did see some level of appreciation.
Optimism regarding future price appreciation
The most optimism lies within the middle income of the country.. The higher end is also optimistic. However, people at the lower income level are more pessimistic. The graph show historically how optimistic people in these income levels were, compared to where they are now. People in the upper third income group are a little less optimistic than they have been historically. Higher end sales seem to be dragging; there is a lot of inventory available. Perhaps there is a correlation there.
Seller Traffic
Traffic is up since February, and things are busy. The panelists will speak to this later.
February 2019 June 2019
30 Year Fixed-Rate Mortgage Rates
30-year fixed-rate mortgages are at their lowest rate for 3 years, which is important. Mortgage rates have plummeted this year, leading many to anticipate the market will continue to increase as money becomes cheaper. The lower rates make it more affordable to own a home.
Quotes that tell us the second half of 2019 is on a path to be extremely strong
Danielle Hale, Realtor.com’s Chief Economist
“Lower mortgage rates, higher wages, and more homes for sale have helped counteract rising home prices, and ultimately, made it so that buyers are able to afford more than last year.”
Ralph McLaughlin, Deputy Chief Economist at CoreLogic
“With mortgage rates flat and inventory picking up, we expect more buyers to take advantage of easing housing market headwinds.”
Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac
“The drop in mortgage rates over the last two months is already being felt in the housing market. In the near term, we expect the housing market to continue to improve from both a sales and price perspective.”
Ivy Zelman and the “Z” Report
“Key metrics tracking existing home sales demand have been on an upward trajectory so far in 2019. This portends positively for our forecast for existing home closings to increase by 1% in 2019, despite a 3% decline though the first five months of the year.”
Local Housing Market Statistics
A Quarterly look for the last 5 years of the Combined Counties of Orange, Rochester and Westchester, New York
Units Sold
How many homes are selling is what Geoff calls the “mother’s milk” of the industry. With this bigger data sampling, trends can be more telling. There is no question that the market has been going down The market has been softening when you combine the three counties. In fact, outside of 2015 it is the weakest second quarter we’ve had in four years.
Average Selling Price
Prices are still strong, at or above the last four years per this chart. We should continue to see some appreciation, but Geoff does expect the numbers to get lower, despite predictions to the contrary by some others.
Average List to Sell Price Ratio
Basically this is the last asking price of the home versus what it sold for. The higher the number is to 100%, the hotter the market is. While it’s down a little from last year, the percentage is still good. However, it does indicate a softening of the market.
Days on Market
Here, the lower the number, the hotter the market. Here you can see that this number is softening, too, as it intersects with where it was last year at this time.
A Quarterly look for the last 5 years of the Combined Counties of Sussex, Morris and Passaic, New Jersey
Units Sold
Things are definitely a little bit slower on the New Jersey side. We’re down significantly in the first two quarters of 2019 in these counties. We’re only above 2015 and below the last three years. Again, indications of a softening market.
Average Price
Price was up first quarter of 2019, but we’re now starting to see prices soften as the average price is near even with 2018 second quarter number.
Average List to Sell Price Ratio
This number is going up, consistent with what is happening in New York.
Days on Market
In New Jersey, there is a marked decline in days on market, as opposed to New York, where that number was inching up. This indicates a more competitive market.
And now a word from our sponsor…
Meet our Panel
Geoffrey Green, Moderator, President, Green Team Realty
Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty
Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty
Momentum
Jen feels very good about momentum on the Orange County side. She feels it’s a great playing field for both buyers and sellers. Furthermore, having interest rates so low is an incentive for buyers. Some buyers who might have used cash are deciding to finance instead because of the low rates. We are fighting low inventory. But if the house is priced right and is in good condition, it’s sold. However, it still is vital to get inventory up.
Keren finds buyers much more educated than in the past. But they are also hesitant. She thinks some of that stems from deciding if this is where they really want to be. If you’re ready, have done your homework, then find a house, doubt can set it. Perhaps that it shouldn’t be this easy. She’s had situations where she’s told buyers that this is a hot market and if they’re interested they need to put an offer in that same day. Tomorrow the house will be gone. By waiting a week, they lost the house.
High End Market
Geoff asked Jen if she sees a lot of high-end inventory on the Orange County side. Jen replied that she’s seeing more of the $500,000/$600,000 in her own inventory and others. There is definitely an increase in the higher end homes. However she sees that market starting to soften. New construction has an impact on pricing of resales. Therefore, the higher-end homes are feeling that hit from the competition. The new property tax implications also impact the larger, high-end homes. She believes that ultimately we’ll see more downsizing.
Geoff responded that there could be interesting opportunities to buy high-end homes over the next five years for people who are looking for a weekend home or retreat. Jen has definitely seen an increase in purchases of second homes.
Geoff asked Keren about the situation in New Jersey. Keren feels that the stats on homes that haven’t sold more than previous years is more from Passaic and Morris Counties. Keren does business in those counties and in ones further south, but a lot of high-end houses in Bergen are being rented. Keren is also finding buyers looking for a second home in the $400,000-$500,000 range. And while we might consider that high-end, to them it’s just a home.
Bidding Wars
Geoff stated, “At the end of the day, we’re still there. There are still bidding wars. If something is priced right, it’s in the middle of the market, it’s well located, it’s gone. There are multiple offers immediately.” Keren thinks that homes that are more affordable in Sussex County have had above priced offers. She still sees a hot sellers market.
Geoff asked Jen if she is seeing the same thing in New York, with intense bidding wars. Jen replied that, again, if the product matches condition and pricing, it’s gone. Especially in the median price-points, Especially anything in the $200,000 to mid $400,000’s.
Appraisals
Geoff then asked about appraisals, if they are coming in okay, or if they are not valuing. Jen hasn’t had an issue with appraisals. She is starting to see some sellers’ concessions inching their way back in. Providing a cushion for buyers, that’s some equity there that they haven’t seen in awhile. That’s a good indicator.
Keren also finds that appraisals are coming in okay. She has also seen a lot of sellers’ concessions. According to Keren, 90% of offers she puts in on the buyer’s do get some concession from the seller.
Having done the Housing Market Updates for some time, Geoff finds that appraisals haven’t seemed to be an issue for the past 12-18 months. However, he recalls that it was a problem a few years ago. As the market was really taking off as prices were jumping it was hard for appraisers to justify comps. It seems that that has evened off.
What are banks doing with foreclosures?
Geoff asked Keren about the situation with bank foreclosures, REO’s. Whether they were releasing more inventory or hanging on tand renting them. Keren replied that they are flipping them, flips are not done well because work goes to lowest bidder. In the end it’s the buyer who gets the short end of the stick. They’ve bought a renovated home, they’re happy, and then she gets the call… This broke and this happened, but there is nothing that Keren can do at that point.
The panel turned the discussion towards the importance of trades people. Plumbers, contractors, etc. The more poorly done renovations there are, the more repairs will be required. Keren did point out that unfortunately there seems to be less people going into these trades. It can be challenging to find labor and materials are expensive.
Wrapping it up
Jen’s final words…. “Keep buying!” According to Geoff, rates are declining, inventory is pretty good. Units sold is trending down, prices are softening. So if you’re a buyer, this is an interesting time. And Jen pointed out that even if someone is not interested in selling at this point, it’s a good time to refinance.
To contact the panelists:
Jennifer DiCostanzo – Cell #917-916-9995
Keren Gonen – Cell #551-262-4062
Next Housing Market Update
August 20 at 2 p.m. Stay informed – sign up for our Housing Market Updates at
Green Team Realty’s 2019 Launch Competition Was a Big Success
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Green Team Realty’s Launch is a competition with a purpose. It provides incentives for Sales Associates to learn or improve their use of Green Team’s Customer Relationship Management system (“CRM”). The ultimate goal is providing the best in customer service and appreciation. By inputting and keeping track of the information and activities pertaining to client transactions, agents are better able to refine their client appreciation programs. Further, maintaining relationships with clients past, present and future in today’s challenging real estate market makes everyone a winner. Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, promotes the competition at the beginning of each year. He feels that agents who fully know and use the CRM can provide better services to their clients while also getting better control of their businesses and lives. Besides, a little friendly competition and generous prizes ensure some serious participation.
Thanks to the Team Leaders!
Before announcing the winning teams and individuals, Geoff Green first thanked the team captains for volunteering their time and effort. “These ladies went above and beyond to make this a fruitful competition for all of the Sales Associates. Great job to all team captains!” In the Warwick office, Angela Murphy volunteered to once again serve as a Launch team leader. And Kim Lesley stepped up as team leader of the opposing team. At the Vernon office, Cathie Witte took on last year’s team leader and individual winner, Keren Gonen. All four leaders did their best to inspire their teams to become proficient in using the CRM. And, of course, to score the points given for CRM activities.
Angela Murphy Kim Lesley Cathie Witte Keren Gonen
The Winning Teams are:
In Warwick, Kim Lesley’s Rock’n’Rollers put up a valiant fight, but Angela’s Murphy’s Master Minds came out on top. And in Vernon, Cathie’s Witte’s Wonders came in with the most points, despite a great showing by Keren’s Gonen’s Greenies.
This year Geoff awarded cash prizes for each of the top ten Sales Associates on the winning teams. Each sales associate had to have a minimum of 600 points from February 14 to March 31, the length of the Launch competition.
And the Individual Winners from those Winning Teams are:
- Top Sales Associates with the most points: Carol Buchanan (Warwick) and Heidi Hyland (Vernon)
- Top Sales Associates with the second most points: Tom Folino (Warwick) and Cathie Witte (Vernon)
- The 3rd and 4th place Sales Associates: Angela Murphy & Denise Schmidt (Warwick) and Joyce Rogers and Kim Lasalandra (Vernon)
- The 5th and 6th place Sales Associates: Nicole Willner & Lucyann Tinnirello (Warwick) and Ann Nussberger (Vernon)
- The 7th and 8th place Sales Associates: Terry Gavan and Toni Kreusch (Warwick)
- The 9th and 10th place Sales Associates: Nancy Sardo & Karen Gauvin (Warwick
Dean Diltz was not a member of the winning team. However, as the highest point earner in the Warwick office, he was awarded a special prize.
Looking forward to Launch 2020!
Will our team leaders step up for the challenge again? Which team will score the most points? And what incentives will Geoff offer to motivate everyone! Stay tuned for February 14, 2020, when Launch 2020 will blast off!
April 2019 Housing Market Update
The April 2019 Housing Market Update was held on Facebook Live Tuesday, April 16 at 2 p.m. If you missed the live webinar, you can view it at your convenience by clicking here. You can also sign up for updates at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, began the update with some national statistics. Discussions have been going on for months as to what the 2019 would look like. And, for the most part, it’s roaring. At least that is the case in our area, the northeast.
National Housing Market Statistics
Total Existing Home Sales
This chart shows the total existing home sales for every two months, year over year. There was a dip, with things trending down, from the end of 2017 through 2018 nationally. But there is a bump at the beginning of 2019. And it seems to be busy for everyone right now. The thinking is that this may be another banner year.
Median Price of Existing Home Sales
Prices have very consistently increased over the last 3 to 4 years. And there doesn’t seem to be a reason to anticipate any change in that trajectory any time soon.
Existing Home Prices by Region
Breaking down existing home prices in terms of regions, this shows where we are now versus last year. The Midwest is leading home prices increases, followed by the Northeast.
% Change in Sales
As prices have risen, there are fewer homes across the nation in the $0-$100,000 range. This low inventory has resulted in the change in sales for that price range. However, it is also interesting that on the very high end, transactions of $1 Million+ have faltered and slowed down. When you start to get into those metro areas where $1+ Million is not unusual, people may be starting to find it’s a little out of reach.
Housing Supply at the National Level
The lack of inventory has been seen as a reason for why the number of transactions was softening for the last 12, 14 months; The supply level peaked in 2018 and then came down towards the end of 2018. But it now looks like it may be coming up again. We really need this to happen to keep the transactions going.
Projected Home Price Appreciation
A panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists were interviewed for the most recent Home Price Expectations Survey. These experts have raised the projections they made in the 4th quarter of 2018 for 2019 and 2020. They are anticipating a better year than they first thought.
Mortgage Rate Projections
Despite a zooming market and a very solid economy, rates in Geoff’s view are still remaining low. Someone who was looking for a home a year and a half ago may now see rates up a point and think that they are now “high.” However, Geoff says that rates are still historically low. 
Local Housing Market Update
Orange County, NY – Units Sold
We seem to be holding even compared to last year. Perhaps a tick better. This is good news.
Orange County, NY – Average Sales Price
So far this year we’re basically even with last year.
Orange County, NY – Ask to Sold Ratio
Ratio at which a home sells versus the last asking price. The ratio seems to be trending higher which means that demand is still very high. People are willing to pay at or near asking, if not over asking. Bidding wars are still continuing.
Orange County, NY – Days on Market
The days on market continue to drop consistently. Homes are still selling fast, selling quicker each year. All signs point to a continued Seller’s Market.
Sussex County, NJ – Units Sold
Units sold in January and February were lower than in 2018. However, in March the number rose, coming in a tick higher than March 2018.
Sussex County, NJ – Average Price
Sales prices in Sussex have been a bit of a conundrum. Price hasn’t taken hold and there has been a significant one month drop from February to March. This will be an interesting analytic to watch as the year goes on.
Sussex County, NJ – Ask to Sold Ratio
Again, the higher the number, the closer things are selling towards the asking price and the less sellers are having to negotiate off those prices. We’re looking at some very strong numbers here.
Sussex County, NJ – Days on Market
Again, here the lower the number the stronger the market. Here was have a steady pattern of fewer days on the market. Homes are selling faster and faster.
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Meet the Panel
Geoffrey Green, Moderator
President, Green Team Realty
Vikki Garby,
Green Team
New York Realty
Keren Gonen,
Green Team
New Jersey Realty
Laura Moritz,
Classic Mortgage
aura Moritz has been with Classic Mortgage for 18 years.
Geoff Green began the panel discussion by asking about the trends they’ve been seeing in the Housing Market Updates and in the market itself. Geoff recalled that the numbers were softening during 2018. Therefore, there was a lot of uncertainty about how the market would be in 2019. However, the numbers seem to be indicating a very good year.
He asked Vikki and Keren what their experiences were in the field. Vikki said that the general market conditions she sees in Orange County, specifically the Warwick, Goshen, Middletown area, indicate a really strong market. There is still a shortage of inventory, which feeds the demand. She has received several new buyers recently coming from outside the area. Plus, many sellers are staying in the area, adding to the number of prospective buyers.
She has noticed more For Sale by Owner signs lately, and has had buyers request to see some of those. Vikki noted that that’s fine; she’s able to show her clients the homes and guide them through the home purchasing process. She then asked if Keren was seeing the same thing in Sussex County and if it’s a new trend. Keren said they are seeing the same thing in New Jersey. With today’s technology, some sellers are thinking they can do it on their own. And as Vikki mentioned, there are no issues approaching a FSBO and arranging a showing for their buyers.
In regard to home prices plummeting in Sussex, Keren said a new wave of REO’s has been released. This hasn’t happened in a while. They’re also being more logical in their pricing. That may be why we’re seeing that drop. In addition, there is that same problem of inventory. Recently Keren had buyer request to see a newly listed home over the weekend. However that home had an accepted offer on it before her clients could see it 4 days later. It’s still a seller’s market.
New Construction
Geoff agreed that there is clearly an inventory shortage. There is real, organic growth in the market. There are many people who can afford a home, and qualify. Yet there are more prospective buyers like this out there than there are suitable homes. In Warwick, in particular, there is a lot of new construction going on. He wondered if around our local counties there is enough new construction yet. He asked what the panelists were seeing. Had they noticed new subdivisions offering more options for their buyers?
Keren said in Sussex, there was Crystal Springs. A large halted construction site there had just been bought up, and there is new things going up. And there are a lot of people interested in them because there is not that much construction around. They also have those houses that have burnt down and had to be totally gutted. Those houses are getting a lot of activity as well.
Vikki is seeing a lot of new construction in the Warwick area specifically, and also in Goshen, Cornwall. She feels it’s a result of the lack of inventory. Geoff noted that he reads a lot of articles from economists, etc. He received an email from a loan company which urged homeowners to become more reasonable in their pricing. There has also been a lot of talk by economists about the importance of municipalities needing to loosen up their zoning requirements and do what they can to speed up municipalities.
Geoff’s response to these? “Welcome to my world!” Planning boards have gotten tighter and tighter and people are concerned about their communities growing too fast. Regulations have gotten tighter, rather than loosening up. And while Geoff doesn’t believe these things are bad, he’s just saying it’s harder to develop in today’s day and age than it was 50, 60 years ago. There’s just a lot more red tape involved.
Geoff said it will be really interesting to see. America is the place to be. Globally, our economy is far outpacing any other country out there. We’re the “shining city on the hill” again and many people want to be here. Also, many people just don’t want to move.
What’s happening with mortgage financing?
Geoff then asked Laura Moritz where we are with mortgages and where she see rates going, Further, he noted there seems there is a lot of loan of money available, and a lot of loan programs. He doesn’t think that’s the problem. Laura responded that she really doesn’t see a problem at all as far as qualified buyers getting financing. Even a few mortgages were done this month for people with credit scores in the 500’s. Underwriting guidelines have really loosened up. Borrowers may also have what’s called in banking compensating factors = their credit is not so great, but they have other factors, Laura is really not seeing any rejections. She also is not seeing houses not appraising for value. The market has been very steady.
Interest rates are very low now. She has locked in and closed some 30 year loans recently at 4-1/4% with 20% down and good credit. With 15 year loans , you’re looking at high 3’s%.
Geoff mentioned that we’ve talked about the appraisal situation often on the housing market updates. He said it was maybe a year or more that it wasn’t so certain that things would appraise and it was difficult. Now that we have in this steadily increasing medium price market appraisers can buy into the fact that this house is worth more than the one down the street because it’s selling six months later and it’s an increasing market. Where it’s hard on appraisers is on the turn, when the market is on its way up or on its way down.
Laura added that some high end properties with “fluff” amenities may not translate to an appraisal. However, ever her high-end appraisals have been coming in on point because they have the comps.
She doesn’t believe that rates will move in either direction very much over the next 6 to 9 months. However, as we know, one catastrophic event or something in the global economy can shift the bond market and it can change on a dime. It does look like rates will hold steady over the summer months.
Laura closed the discussion by noting that it’s a great time to buy a house. She’s seeing a lot of young people and couples trending towards buying a home before getting married in order to skip the renting stage. She loves hearing from them a few years later that they appreciated $70,000 gain and can now buy their forever home. It’s a great time to buy a home in the Northeast. Geoff added that even speaking to average price we’re still really not back to 2006 levels. As much as it’s a seller’s market now, there is still lots of room for growth in price appreciation in our local markets.
May Housing Market Update
The next Housing Market Update will be held on May 21 at 2 p.m. You can stay informed and sign up for Housing Market Updates. Just click here.
Vikki Garby – 1st Quarter Sales Leader for Green Team New York Realty
Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, presents Vikki Garby with the 1st Quarter Sales Leader Award for 2019
Vikki Garby is Green Team New York Realty’s 1st Quarter Sales Leader for 2019
Green Team New York Realty is proud to announce that Vikki Garby is the 1st Quarter Sales Leader. According to Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, “Vikki Garby is a very smart and focused Real Estate professional. She is establishing herself as a true leader in the Orange County Real Estate marketplace. Vikki’s analytical abilities have served her well in both Residential and Commercial Real Estate. And both are contributors to her sales success. It’s going to be exciting to watch Vikki grow her Real Estate business. We are extremely blessed to have her as part of our Agency.”
About Vikki…
Prior to entering the world of real estate, Vikki worked for a major bank in New York City as an investment banker. There she reviewed and negotiated complex contracts on a regular basis. During that time, she became a real estate investor, negotiating her own transactions as a buyer. And her love of real estate and skill at navigating its many transactional parts, lead her to obtain her license so that she could help others with their real estate needs. In addition, Vikki has received her Commercial Investment Real Estate Certification. And this further enhances her ability to assist real estate investors and commercial clients.
Vikki had the following to say: “I appreciate this recognition very much. Success in this business is achieved by chugging away every day to help our clients as best we can. Thank you to all my loyal clients for trusting in me and for referring me to your family and friends. You have helped me grow my business to what it is today and I am extremely grateful for that. The support, tools and resources I receive by being a part of Green Team New York Realty make my job that much easier and more rewarding!”
Kristine “Krissy” Many Earns NAR Pricing Strategy Advisor Certification
Kristine “Krissy” Many has been awarded Pricing Strategy Advisor (PSA) Certification by the National Association of REALTORS® (NAR).
According to the NAR, determining property values depends more than ever on professional expertise and competence, the best use of technology, and a commitment to approach pricing from various perspectives. Further, Marc Gould, Executive Director of the Center for Specialized REALTOR® Education, stated, “Consumers deserve accurate property value assessments, so NAR is proud to provide REALTORS® with a credential that provides enhanced tools, education, and expertise to determine the most accurate value for a home.”
PSA Certification gives REALTORS® the knowledge and skills to:
- select appropriate comparables and make accurate adjustments;
- guide sellers and buyers through details of comparative market analyses and the underlying pricing principles informing them; and
- interact effectively with appraisers.
Krissy considers herself a consultant rather than a salesperson. And, she adds, “In my consultative role, this certification will benefit my clients by allowing me to effectively and accurately address their pricing questions, allowing them to feel confident in their buying and selling decisions.”
