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Housing Market News •
December 1, 2020
Chances of Another Foreclosure Crisis? “About Zero Percent.”
There seems to be some concern that the 2020 economic downturn will lead to another foreclosure crisis like the one we experienced after the housing crash a little over a decade ago. However, there’s one major difference this time: a robust forbearance program.
During the housing crash of 2006-2008, many felt homeowners should be forced to pay their mortgages despite the economic hardships they were experiencing. There was no empathy for the challenges those households were facing. In a 2009 Wall Street Journal article titled Is Walking Away From Your Mortgage Immoral?, John Courson, Chief Executive of the Mortgage Bankers Association, was asked to comment on those not paying their mortgage. He famously said:
“What about the message they will send to their family and their kids?”
Courson suggested that people unable to pay their mortgage were bad parents.
What resulted from that lack of empathy? Foreclosures mounted.
This time is different. There was an immediate understanding that homeowners were faced with a challenge not of their own making. The government quickly jumped in with a mortgage forbearance program that relieved the financial burden placed on many households. The program allowed many borrowers to suspend their monthly mortgage payments until their economic condition improved. It was the right thing to do.
What happens when forbearance programs expire?
Some analysts are concerned many homeowners will not be able to make up the back payments once their forbearance plans expire. They’re concerned the situation will lead to an onslaught of foreclosures.
The banks and the government learned from the challenges the country experienced during the housing crash. They don’t want a surge of foreclosures again. For that reason, they’ve put in place alternative ways homeowners can pay back the money owed over an extended period of time.
Another major difference is that, unlike 2006-2008, today’s homeowners are sitting on a record amount of equity. That equity will enable them to sell their houses and walk away with cash instead of going through foreclosure.
Bottom Line
The differences mentioned above will be the reason we’ll avert a surge of foreclosures. As Ivy Zelman, a highly respected thought leader for housing and CEO of Zelman & Associates, said:
“The likelihood of us having a foreclosure crisis again is about zero percent.”
Housing Market News •
November 28, 2020
November 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the November 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar, held on Tuesday, November 17 at 2 p.m. examined the housing market on both national and local levels.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:
Meet the Panel:
Panelists included Keren Gonen and Barbara Tesa, of Green Team New Jersey Realty and Carol Buchanan, with Green Team New York Realty. Also joining the discussion were Ken Ford of Warwick Valley Financial Advisors, and Laura Moritz with Classic Mortgage LLC.
First, let’s talk about the economy
In January, the economy was strong, there were no signs of the housing market slowing down. It took a major global event to slow down a roaring economy.
So, what did people do with stimulus checks?
35% used it to pay down debts. 36% saved the money, and 29% spent the money. U.S. Consumer spending since January 1, 2020, is down by -3.7%. Changes in consumer spending by state is shown below:
Unemployment filings and benefits
Weekly unemployment filings have been steadily coming down. However, unemployment does remain at a high number. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits is also trending downwards.
Mortgage Forbearance, Home Inventory, Home Appreciation, and Mortgage Rates
The number of mortgages in active forbearance is decreasing dramatically. As of Oct 20, out of 2,397,000 families granted forbearance, some have extended it, However, 44% came out of the program while paying on time. In addition, 500,000 people paid off their mortgage.
Moreover, stats show the decrease in inventory over the last 12 months. According to Zillow, the top reasons for people not putting their homes on the market now are financial uncertainty, uncertainty about life in general, and COVID-19 health concerns.
Most experts are bullish on home price appreciation. However, Mortgage Bankers’ Association is predicting rising mortgage rates over the next 3 years.
Learn more. Watch the Webinar.
For updates on what is happening in commercial real estate, the crisis facing renters at the end of moratoriums, and national and local market stats, click here.to watch the webinar. You’ll also be hearing from the sales associates, and financial and mortgage experts on what they are seeing in the market.
Furthermore, you can compare this month’s stats with those in the October Housing Market Update.
“Housekeeping” Items
Contact our Panelists
Join us for the last Housing Market Update of 2020 on Tuesday, December 15 at 2 p.m.
Sign up for updates now at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU
Buying a home •
November 24, 2020
Will Mortgage Rates Remain Low Next Year?
[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text” _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]In 2020, buyers got a big boost in the housing market as mortgage rates dropped throughout the year. According to Freddie Mac, rates hit all-time lows 12 times this year, dipping below 3% for the first time ever while making buying a home more and more attractive as the year progressed (See graph below):
When you continually hear how rates are hitting record lows, you may be wondering: Are they going to keep falling? Should I wait until they get even lower?
The Challenge with Waiting
The challenge with waiting is that you can easily miss this optimal window of time and then end up paying more in the long run. Last week, mortgage rates ticked up slightly. Sam Khater, Chief Economist at Freddie Mac, explains:
“Mortgage rates jumped this week as a result of positive news about a COVID-19 vaccine. Despite this rise, mortgage rates remain about a percentage point below a year ago.”
While rates are still lower today than they were one year ago, as the economy continues to get stronger and the pandemic is resolved, there’s a very good chance interest rates will rise again. Several top institutions in the real estate industry are projecting an increase in mortgage rates over the next four quarters (See chart below):
If you’re planning to wait until next year or later, Mike Fratantoni, Chief Economist at the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA), forecasts mortgage rates will begin to steadily rise:
As a buyer, you need to decide if waiting makes financial sense for you.
Bottom Line
If you’re planning to buy a home and want to take advantage of today’s low rates, now is the time to do so. Don’t assume they’re going to stay this low forever.[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″][et_pb_row custom_padding=”32px|0px|0|0px|false|false” _builder_version=”3.18.2″][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_divider _builder_version=”3.18.2″][/et_pb_divider][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″ custom_padding=”0|0px|65px|0px|false|false”][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.18.2″][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.18.2″]
Read More News and Insights
[/et_pb_text][et_pb_blog fullwidth=”off” posts_number=”3″ include_categories=”277,all” show_author=”off” show_date=”off” show_categories=”off” offset_number=”1″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″ header_level=”h5″ header_font=”||||||||” body_font=”||||||||” border_radii=”on|12px|12px|12px|12px” text_orientation=”center”][/et_pb_blog][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section]
Buying a home •
November 24, 2020
Is Buying a Home Today a Good Financial Move?
[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”3.0.47″ custom_padding=”22px|0px|0px|0px|false|false”][et_pb_row custom_padding=”13px|0px|32px|0px|false|false” admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text” _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]There’s no doubt 2020 has been a challenging year. A global pandemic coupled with an economic recession has caused heartache for many. However, it has also prompted more Americans to reconsider the meaning of “home.” This quest for a place better equipped to fulfill our needs, along with record-low mortgage rates, has skyrocketed the demand for home purchases.
This increase in demand, on top of the severe shortage of homes for sale, has also caused more bidding wars and thus has home prices appreciating rather dramatically. Some, therefore, have become cautious about buying a home right now.
The truth of the matter is, even though homes have appreciated by a whopping 6.7% over the last twelve months, the cost to buy a home has actually dropped. This is largely due to mortgage rates falling by a full percentage point.
Let’s take a look at the monthly mortgage payment on a $300,000 house one year ago, and then compare it with that same home today, after it has appreciated by 6.7% to $320,100:
Compared to this time last year, you’ll actually save $87 dollars a month by purchasing that home today, which equates to over one thousand dollars a year.
But isn’t the economy still in a recession?
Yes, it is. That, however, may make it the perfect time to buy your first home or move up to a larger one. Tom Gil, a Harvard trained negotiator and real estate investor, recently explained:
“When volatile assets are facing recessions, hard assets, such as gold and real estate, thrive. Historically speaking, residential real estate has done better compared to other markets during and after recessions.”
That thought is substantiated by the fact that homeowners have 40 times the net worth of renters. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist for First American Financial Corporation, recently said:
“Despite the risk of volatility in the housing market, numerous studies have demonstrated that homeownership leads to greater wealth accumulation when compared with renting. Renters don’t capture the wealth generated by house price appreciation, nor do they benefit from the equity gains generated by monthly mortgage payments, which become a form of forced savings for homeowners.”
Bottom Line
With home prices still increasing and mortgage rates perhaps poised to begin rising as well, buying your first home, or moving up to a home that better fits your current needs, likely makes a ton of sense.[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section][et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.18.2″][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.18.2″]
Read More News and Insights
[/et_pb_text][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.18.2″][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.18.2″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_blog fullwidth=”off” posts_number=”3″ include_categories=”38,234″ show_author=”off” show_date=”off” show_categories=”off” _builder_version=”3.18.2″ header_level=”h5″ header_font=”||||||||” body_font=”||||||||” border_radii=”on|12px|12px|12px|12px” text_orientation=”center”][/et_pb_blog][/et_pb_column][/et_pb_row][/et_pb_section]
Buying a home •
November 23, 2020
Homeownership Is a Key to Building Wealth
For years, real estate has been considered the best investment you can make. A major reason for this is due to the net worth a household gains through homeownership. In fact, according to the 2019 Survey of Consumer Finance Data from the Federal Reserve, for the average homeowner:
“…a primary home accounts for 90% of the total wealth of a family in the U.S.”
How do homeowners gain wealth?
Most large purchases, like cars and appliances, depreciate in value as they age, so it’s understandable to question how owning a home can increase wealth over time. In a simple equation, the National Association of Realtors (NAR) explains how the combination of paying your mortgage and home price appreciation grow overall wealth:
Principal Payments + Price Appreciation Gains = Housing Wealth Gain
As home values increase and you make payments toward your home loan, you’ll gain wealth through equity. The same article from NAR also addresses how wealth gains tend to play out over time:
“Housing wealth accumulation takes time and is built up by paying off the mortgage debt and by price appreciation. And while home prices can fall, home prices tend to recover and go up over the longer term. As of September 2020, the median sales price of existing home sales was $311,800, a 35% gain since July 2006 when prices peaked at $230,000.”
Taking a look at how equity has grown for the typical homeowner, it’s clear to see how real estate is a sound long-term investment. NAR notes:
“Nationally, a person who purchased a typical home 30 years ago would have typically gained about $283,000 as of the second quarter of 2020.” (See graph below):
Bottom Line
Whether you’re a current homeowner planning to put your equity toward a new home or have hopes of buying your first home soon, homeownership will always be a great opportunity to build your net worth and overall wealth. Owning a home is truly an investment in your financial future.
See our full list of Available Properties!!
Agency News and Awards •
November 22, 2020
Meet James J. Cosenza
When you first meet James J. Cosenza (“Jimmy”), there are a few things you’ll notice right away. Jimmy is a goal setter. He’ll do whatever is necessary to achieve his goals. He wants you to be a customer for life. Furthermore, Jimmy is happiest when he’s busy! All of these traits have served him well in the past, and they continue to do so now.
A Formula For Success
Jimmy grew up in Eastchester, which is located in Westchester County, New York. Playing sports was a big part of his high school experience. Many of his friends turned their sports skills into scholarship money. However, Jimmy realized that college was not in his future. Instead, he had other plans and other goals. Jimmy became a police officer in Mount Vernon, New York. Setting goals and achieving them guided his path in the police force. Jimmy worked his way up to Community Policing, then Street Crimes, and finally, he was promoted to Detective in the Narcotics Division.
Of course, life is what happens when you’re busy making other plans, and that’s what happened to Jimmy. He was injured in the line of duty and had to “retire” from the police department. Jimmy had to make new goals and adjustments had to be made. One of Jimmy’s passions was owning and training harness racehorses. His injury prevented him from training his horses, but he was still a proud owner. Another change was also happening.
A Friendly Place
Jimmy’s wife was born and raised in Orange County and in 2002 he moved from suburban Westchester to the beautiful rural landscape that is Orange. He readily admits that it was quite a culture shock coming from Westchester to Orange. When asked what it was that caused this culture shock, he immediately replied, “Everyone was so friendly!” He was also shocked by how peaceful and quiet Orange County is. Jimmy had another goal. In 2014 he opened his own business, Cosenza’s Gun Shop, in Monroe. With the spirit of an entrepreneur, an affinity for customer service, and a natural ability to negotiate, Jimmy has achieved the high standards he has set for himself. He strives to make every customer a customer for life.
The Road To Real Estate
With each goal that Jimmy achieved, he was closer to realizing another dream. Real estate had always been of interest. In fact, Jimmy and his wife purchased their first home in Warwick which then became a rental for them. They moved and currently reside in Monroe. Skills that Jimmy developed over the years are important for a real estate professional to have. His attention to detail, investigative and negotiating skills, and solving problems are all essential traits in his real estate business. So is the work ethic that led to opening a successful business. He does strive to make every customer a customer for life, and still sets goals and does whatever it takes to achieve them.
With his knowledge of Westchester and Orange Counties, Jimmy enjoys introducing clients to the warm and friendly lifestyle he and his family found here. His dedication to his clients also translates into providing the best service and negotiating the best deal for them.
Buying a home •
November 21, 2020
Homes for Sale Are Rapidly Disappearing
Through all the challenges of 2020, the real estate market has done very well, and purchasers are continuing to take advantage of historically low mortgage rates. Realtor Magazine just explained:
“While winter may be typically a slow season in real estate, economists predict it isn’t likely to happen this year…Low inventories combined with high demand due to record-low mortgage rates is sending buyers to the market in a flurry.”
However, one challenge for the housing industry heading into this winter is the dwindling number of homes available for sale. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), recently said:
“There is no shortage of hopeful, potential buyers, but inventory is historically low.”
In addition, Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, notes:
“Fewer new sellers coming to market while a greater than usual number of buyers continue to search for a home causes inventory to continue to evaporate.”
One major indicator the industry uses to measure housing supply is the months’ supply of inventory. According to NAR:
“Months’ supply refers to the number of months it would take for the current inventory of homes on the market to sell given the current sales pace.”
Historically, six months of supply is considered a normal real estate market. Going into the pandemic, inventory was already well below this mark. As the year progressed, the supply has was reduced even further. Here is a graph showing this measurement over the last year:
What does this mean if you’re a buyer?
Be patient during your home search. It may take time to find a home you love. Once you do, be ready to move forward quickly. Get pre-approved for a mortgage, be prepared to make a competitive offer from the start, and understand how the shortage in inventory has led to more bidding wars. Calculate just how far you’re willing to go to secure a home if you truly love it.
What does this mean if you’re a seller?
Realize that, in some ways, you’re in the driver’s seat. When there’s a shortage of an item at the same time there’s a strong demand for it, the seller is in a good position to negotiate. Whether it’s the price, moving date, possible repairs, or anything else, you’ll be able to ask for more from a potential purchaser at a time like this – especially if you have multiple interested buyers. Do not be unreasonable, but understand you probably have the upper hand.
Bottom Line
The housing market will remain strong throughout the winter and heading into the spring. Know what that means for you, whether you’re buying, selling, or doing both.
Contact one of our agents today!
See Green Teams Available Listings!
Selling a Home •
November 20, 2020
Why Working from Home May Spark Your Next Move
If you’ve been working from home this year, chances are you’ve been at it a little longer than you initially expected. Businesses all over the country have figured out how to operate remotely to keep their employees healthy, safe, and productive. For many, it may be carrying into next year, and possibly beyond.
While the pandemic continues, Americans are re-evaluating their homes, floorplans, locations, needs, and more. Some need more space, while others need less. Whether you’re renting or own your home, if remote work is part of your future, you may be thinking about moving, especially while today’s mortgage rates are so low.
A recent study from Upwork notes:
“Anywhere from 14 to 23 million Americans are planning to move as a result of remote work.”
To put this into perspective, last year, 6 million homes were sold in the U.S. This means roughly 2 – 4X as many people are considering moving now, and there’s a direct connection to their ability to work from home.
The same study also notes while 45.3% of people are planning to stay within a 2-hour drive from their current location, 41.5% of the people who are citing working from home as their primary reason for making a move are willing to look for a home more than 4 hours away from where they live now (See graph below):
In some cases, moving a little further away from your current location might mean you can get more home for your money. If you have the opportunity to work remotely, you may have more options available by expanding your search. Upwork also indicates, of those surveyed:
“People are seeking less expensive housing: Altogether, more than half (52.5%) are planning to move to a house that is significantly more affordable than their current home.”
Whether you can eliminate your daily commute to the office, or you simply need more space to work from home, your plans may be changing. If that’s the case, it’s time to connect with a local real estate professional to assess your evolving needs and determine your path together.
Bottom Line
This has been a year of change, and what you need in a home is no exception. Let’s connect today to make sure you have expert guidance on your side to help you find a home that fits your remote work needs.
Buying a home • Selling a Home •
November 20, 2020
Winter Will Bring a Flurry of Activity to the Housing Market
In the second half of this year, the housing market surged with activity. Today, real estate experts are looking ahead to the winter season and the forecast is anything but chilly. As Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for the National Association of Realtors (NAR), notes:
“It will be one of the best winter sales years ever.”
The typical winter slowdown in the housing market is simply not on the radar. Here’s why.
While today’s historically low mortgage rates are expected to remain low, they won’t be this low for much longer. This could be the last chance for homebuyers to secure such low rates, and they’re ready to take action. In a recent article, Bankrate explained:
“If you’re looking to buy a home…expect mortgage rates to remain low into 2021. However, the possibility of rates falling to 2.5 percent or lower has faded as the U.S. economy has rebounded.”
As long as we continue to see low-interest rates, we’ll see hopeful buyers on the hunt for their dream homes. Yun confirmed:
“The demand for home buying remains super strong…And we’re still likely to end the year with more homes sold overall in 2020 than in 2019…With persistent low mortgage rates and some degree of a continuing jobs recovery, more contract signings are expected in the near future.”
The challenge, however, is the lack of homes available for sale. With that in mind, all eyes are on homeowners to see if they’ll sell this winter or wait until spring. Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com, says it’s best for sellers to capitalize on this moment sooner rather than later:
“We currently see buyers sticking around in the housing market much later than we usually do this fall. If that trend continues, we will see more buyers in the market this winter, too. So, this winter is likely to be a good time to sell.”
With buyers ready to stay active this winter, sellers who want to close a deal on the best possible terms shouldn’t wait until spring to put their homes on the market.
Bottom Line
Experts agree the winter housing market could potentially be bigger than ever. Whether you’re ready to buy or sell, let’s connect today so you can be in your dream home by the new year.
