April 2019 Housing Market Update
The April 2019 Housing Market Update was held on Facebook Live Tuesday, April 16 at 2 p.m. If you missed the live webinar, you can view it at your convenience by clicking here. You can also sign up for updates at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, began the update with some national statistics. Discussions have been going on for months as to what the 2019 would look like. And, for the most part, it’s roaring. At least that is the case in our area, the northeast.
National Housing Market Statistics
Total Existing Home Sales
This chart shows the total existing home sales for every two months, year over year. There was a dip, with things trending down, from the end of 2017 through 2018 nationally. But there is a bump at the beginning of 2019. And it seems to be busy for everyone right now. The thinking is that this may be another banner year.

Median Price of Existing Home Sales
Prices have very consistently increased over the last 3 to 4 years. And there doesn’t seem to be a reason to anticipate any change in that trajectory any time soon.

Existing Home Prices by Region
Breaking down existing home prices in terms of regions, this shows where we are now versus last year. The Midwest is leading home prices increases, followed by the Northeast.

% Change in Sales
As prices have risen, there are fewer homes across the nation in the $0-$100,000 range. This low inventory has resulted in the change in sales for that price range. However, it is also interesting that on the very high end, transactions of $1 Million+ have faltered and slowed down. When you start to get into those metro areas where $1+ Million is not unusual, people may be starting to find it’s a little out of reach.

Housing Supply at the National Level
The lack of inventory has been seen as a reason for why the number of transactions was softening for the last 12, 14 months; The supply level peaked in 2018 and then came down towards the end of 2018. But it now looks like it may be coming up again. We really need this to happen to keep the transactions going.

Projected Home Price Appreciation
A panel of over 100 economists, real estate experts and investment and market strategists were interviewed for the most recent Home Price Expectations Survey. These experts have raised the projections they made in the 4th quarter of 2018 for 2019 and 2020. They are anticipating a better year than they first thought.

Mortgage Rate Projections
Despite a zooming market and a very solid economy, rates in Geoff’s view are still remaining low. Someone who was looking for a home a year and a half ago may now see rates up a point and think that they are now “high.” However, Geoff says that rates are still historically low. 
Local Housing Market Update
Orange County, NY – Units Sold
We seem to be holding even compared to last year. Perhaps a tick better. This is good news.

Orange County, NY – Average Sales Price
So far this year we’re basically even with last year.

Orange County, NY – Ask to Sold Ratio
Ratio at which a home sells versus the last asking price. The ratio seems to be trending higher which means that demand is still very high. People are willing to pay at or near asking, if not over asking. Bidding wars are still continuing.

Orange County, NY – Days on Market
The days on market continue to drop consistently. Homes are still selling fast, selling quicker each year. All signs point to a continued Seller’s Market.

Sussex County, NJ – Units Sold
Units sold in January and February were lower than in 2018. However, in March the number rose, coming in a tick higher than March 2018.

Sussex County, NJ – Average Price
Sales prices in Sussex have been a bit of a conundrum. Price hasn’t taken hold and there has been a significant one month drop from February to March. This will be an interesting analytic to watch as the year goes on.

Sussex County, NJ – Ask to Sold Ratio
Again, the higher the number, the closer things are selling towards the asking price and the less sellers are having to negotiate off those prices. We’re looking at some very strong numbers here.

Sussex County, NJ – Days on Market
Again, here the lower the number the stronger the market. Here was have a steady pattern of fewer days on the market. Homes are selling faster and faster.

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Meet the Panel

Geoffrey Green, Moderator
President, Green Team Realty

Vikki Garby,
Green Team
New York Realty

Keren Gonen,
Green Team
New Jersey Realty

Laura Moritz,
Classic Mortgage
aura Moritz has been with Classic Mortgage for 18 years.
Geoff Green began the panel discussion by asking about the trends they’ve been seeing in the Housing Market Updates and in the market itself. Geoff recalled that the numbers were softening during 2018. Therefore, there was a lot of uncertainty about how the market would be in 2019. However, the numbers seem to be indicating a very good year.
He asked Vikki and Keren what their experiences were in the field. Vikki said that the general market conditions she sees in Orange County, specifically the Warwick, Goshen, Middletown area, indicate a really strong market. There is still a shortage of inventory, which feeds the demand. She has received several new buyers recently coming from outside the area. Plus, many sellers are staying in the area, adding to the number of prospective buyers.
She has noticed more For Sale by Owner signs lately, and has had buyers request to see some of those. Vikki noted that that’s fine; she’s able to show her clients the homes and guide them through the home purchasing process. She then asked if Keren was seeing the same thing in Sussex County and if it’s a new trend. Keren said they are seeing the same thing in New Jersey. With today’s technology, some sellers are thinking they can do it on their own. And as Vikki mentioned, there are no issues approaching a FSBO and arranging a showing for their buyers.
In regard to home prices plummeting in Sussex, Keren said a new wave of REO’s has been released. This hasn’t happened in a while. They’re also being more logical in their pricing. That may be why we’re seeing that drop. In addition, there is that same problem of inventory. Recently Keren had buyer request to see a newly listed home over the weekend. However that home had an accepted offer on it before her clients could see it 4 days later. It’s still a seller’s market.
New Construction
Geoff agreed that there is clearly an inventory shortage. There is real, organic growth in the market. There are many people who can afford a home, and qualify. Yet there are more prospective buyers like this out there than there are suitable homes. In Warwick, in particular, there is a lot of new construction going on. He wondered if around our local counties there is enough new construction yet. He asked what the panelists were seeing. Had they noticed new subdivisions offering more options for their buyers?
Keren said in Sussex, there was Crystal Springs. A large halted construction site there had just been bought up, and there is new things going up. And there are a lot of people interested in them because there is not that much construction around. They also have those houses that have burnt down and had to be totally gutted. Those houses are getting a lot of activity as well.
Vikki is seeing a lot of new construction in the Warwick area specifically, and also in Goshen, Cornwall. She feels it’s a result of the lack of inventory. Geoff noted that he reads a lot of articles from economists, etc. He received an email from a loan company which urged homeowners to become more reasonable in their pricing. There has also been a lot of talk by economists about the importance of municipalities needing to loosen up their zoning requirements and do what they can to speed up municipalities.
Geoff’s response to these? “Welcome to my world!” Planning boards have gotten tighter and tighter and people are concerned about their communities growing too fast. Regulations have gotten tighter, rather than loosening up. And while Geoff doesn’t believe these things are bad, he’s just saying it’s harder to develop in today’s day and age than it was 50, 60 years ago. There’s just a lot more red tape involved.
Geoff said it will be really interesting to see. America is the place to be. Globally, our economy is far outpacing any other country out there. We’re the “shining city on the hill” again and many people want to be here. Also, many people just don’t want to move.
What’s happening with mortgage financing?
Geoff then asked Laura Moritz where we are with mortgages and where she see rates going, Further, he noted there seems there is a lot of loan of money available, and a lot of loan programs. He doesn’t think that’s the problem. Laura responded that she really doesn’t see a problem at all as far as qualified buyers getting financing. Even a few mortgages were done this month for people with credit scores in the 500’s. Underwriting guidelines have really loosened up. Borrowers may also have what’s called in banking compensating factors = their credit is not so great, but they have other factors, Laura is really not seeing any rejections. She also is not seeing houses not appraising for value. The market has been very steady.
Interest rates are very low now. She has locked in and closed some 30 year loans recently at 4-1/4% with 20% down and good credit. With 15 year loans , you’re looking at high 3’s%.
Geoff mentioned that we’ve talked about the appraisal situation often on the housing market updates. He said it was maybe a year or more that it wasn’t so certain that things would appraise and it was difficult. Now that we have in this steadily increasing medium price market appraisers can buy into the fact that this house is worth more than the one down the street because it’s selling six months later and it’s an increasing market. Where it’s hard on appraisers is on the turn, when the market is on its way up or on its way down.
Laura added that some high end properties with “fluff” amenities may not translate to an appraisal. However, ever her high-end appraisals have been coming in on point because they have the comps.
She doesn’t believe that rates will move in either direction very much over the next 6 to 9 months. However, as we know, one catastrophic event or something in the global economy can shift the bond market and it can change on a dime. It does look like rates will hold steady over the summer months.
Laura closed the discussion by noting that it’s a great time to buy a house. She’s seeing a lot of young people and couples trending towards buying a home before getting married in order to skip the renting stage. She loves hearing from them a few years later that they appreciated $70,000 gain and can now buy their forever home. It’s a great time to buy a home in the Northeast. Geoff added that even speaking to average price we’re still really not back to 2006 levels. As much as it’s a seller’s market now, there is still lots of room for growth in price appreciation in our local markets.
May Housing Market Update
The next Housing Market Update will be held on May 21 at 2 p.m. You can stay informed and sign up for Housing Market Updates. Just click here.
Meet Lucyann Tinnirello, the new Broker Manager of Green Team’s Warwick office.
Why a broker manager?
With his business expanding and taking most of his time, Geoff Green knew it was time to hand over the reigns of day-to-day management of the Green Team’s Warwick office to a new broker manager. Furthermore, he understood it would take someone special to do the job.
First of all, the perfect candidate would have to be experienced in real estate and able to handle the detailed management of the office. In addition, the candidate would have to be someone who was not ego driven. Finally, it would take someone able to work with a growing team of agents to solve problems and help them succeed in their businesses. Fortunately, the perfect candidate was already a member of the Green Team family.
Meet Lucyann Tinnirello, the perfect candidate…
Green Team Home Selling System is happy to welcome Lucyann Tinnirello as its first Broker Manager. With 34 years of experience, Lucyann knows the business inside and out. Thus, she understands that real estate is mostly about solving problems and developing relationships.
Lucyann sees the Broker Manager position as being an opportunity for caring, helping, resolving problems and promoting an atmosphere of teamwork, where agents share with their co-workers what their experiences have taught them. However, she also understands there will be challenges. In managing workflow, she knows she must practice neutrality, as well as empathy and efficiency. She feels well prepared to take on the responsibilities of this position, having been co-owner of her own firm. There is a motto that Lucyann lives by: “It’s nice to be important, but it’s more important to be nice.” Her fellow agents agree that Lucyann embodies this motto and is the person who can handle this job. She is both well liked and respected by her peers.
A message for Lucyann’s clients…
By the way, Geoff has a message for Lucyann’s clients. “Fear not! Lucyann will continue to list and sell homes! This position was designed for an active sales person, with support staff and systems providing back-up for the Broker Manager.”
One more word of wisdom…
Lucyann has one more bit of wisdom to live by. Football coach Lou Holtz said this at a seminar and she’s never forgotten it. “WIN…” or “What’s Important Now!” And for Lucyann, what’s important now is doing the best job she can as the Green Team’s new Broker Manager.
Light Up the Holidays is Making the Season Brighter for Two Local Charities!

Local businesses and individuals have joined forces with the Green Team by becoming sponsors for our Second Annual Light Up the Holidays event. To date, Orange County sponsors have raised $3,400 for Warwick Playground Dreams, and Sussex County sponsors have raised $2,350 for the Vernon Senior Center. Sponsorship donations are made directly to the charity, and you’ll find these generous community and business members featured on the Green Team’s website, where they will have a permanent place of honor! It is not too late to join our sponsors in making a lot of dreams come true.
And now the fun begins! We are looking for photos of homes that reflect the beauty of the season to feature on our website and Facebook page! Enter your own home, nominate your neighbor, or a business whose decorations you admire! Also, don’t be surprised if a Green Team member has admired your light display and left you a placard asking you to register on our website! Visit https://www.greenteamhq.com/luh2017 to register, to see the community members who have donated so generously to these two charities, and to place or see your home in the competition!
Wishing all a joyous holiday season!
Click on the images below to view homes in your area that have been entered into the Light Up The Holidays 2017 contest so far. Continue to check back as homes will continue to be added through the new year.


The Green Team is proud to Light Up the Holidays for Warwick Playground Dreams

The Green Team celebrates the holiday season by recognizing the joy and beauty of homes and businesses whose decorations Light Up the Holidays and our communities. It celebrates the ideals of giving and sharing that are at its core by raising money for local charities. And this year, what better way to celebrate the Holidays than by selecting a charity devoted to children!.
Warwick Playground Dreams
Parent volunteers from throughout the Town of Warwick make up this non-profit organization. Their goal, to raise the funds needed to replace aging equipment in Stanley Deming Park. Working with Play by Design of Ithaca, NY, the new playground will not only be whimsical and fun, but also inclusive, with ADA-accessible playground equipment. The playground will also be community built. It is hoped that local artists will decorate it to reflect the culture, history and beauty of Warwick.
Working together with the Village, schools,and Play by Design, volunteers are organized and ready, willing and able! Unfortunately, building a creative, fun and accessible playground is expensive. So being selected as the recipient of donations from Warwick’s Green Team Light up the Holidays event was good news. And on November 29 there was great news. The Light Up the Holidays team presented Warwick Playground Dreams with donations of $1,950. With the continued generosity of Warwick’s businesses, professionals and individuals, there will be more to come.
It Takes a Community to Build a Playground
“We were very excited and grateful when the Green Team reached out to us and offered to help us bring the community together in support of all of Warwick’s children,” said Hannelore Chambers, President of Warwick Playground Dreams. “It is so heartening to see other members of the community reaching out to help us raise awareness and get closer to our $300,000 goal.
As many other towns and cities before us have experienced, building a playground can also build a greater sense of community. How empowering for the children to see what a great thing can be created if everyone works together, and that this playground is being created out of love for them by their parents, grandparents and neighbors. Through our very close collaboration over the last year, many of our committee members have already experienced how strong bonds can be created all across the town between families who might not otherwise have crossed paths due to geography and different school districts.”
You Can Be Part of this Wonderful Project
Light Up the Holidays Sponsors are helping to purchase materials and equipment needed to build the playground. There will be challenging equipment for older kids, and equipment accessible and useful to children of different abilities. The organization will soon be entering their second phase of fundraising efforts. Local groups, businesses and families will be able to sponsor specific playground components. This will range from individual swings and slides to a proposed dual zip line and a wheelchair accessible merry-go-round.
For more information on the Green Team’s Light Up the Holidays event, visit https://www.greenteamhq.com/luh2017. For more information on Warwick Playground Dreams, visit their website at http://warwickplaygrounddreams.com/.
First Time Going to Warwick Applefest?
Here are Some Tips from the Green Team to Make Planning your Day at Warwick Applefest as Easy as Pie!
You’ve been hearing about Warwick Applefest for years, wondering what attracts over 35,000 people to this annual event. And now you’ve decided that this is the year you’re going to experience it for yourself! On Sunday, October 1 you are coming to Warwick, NY to attend the festival that has been voted Best Family Event of the Year for 3 years running by Times Herald-Record readers. It has also been chosen as one of the top ten festivals by the American Bus Association in their “Top 100 Events in North America.” But you realize you could use a little advice to make the most of the day. So, here are some tips from the Green Team to getting the most out of Warwick Applefest 2017!
Do Your Homework…
A great way to start your Warwick Applefest experience is with the official website, www.warwickapplefest.com. Here you’ll find a festival map and listings for over 200 Warwick Applefest vendors and 50 non-profit organizations and where they’ll be located. Not to mention the dozens of food vendors! And the live music! There is a lot to see, and do, and eat! A little planning will go a long way!
Get There Early!
Green Team agents Toni Kreusch and Jennifer DiCostanzo stress the importance of getting there early! The festivities begin at 10 a.m., but you’ll want to get a parking space before then. As the event expands throughout Warwick’s entire downtown, it might be helpful to have a GPS address to guide you to the optimal parking location. There are two parking locations within walking distance of the action. One at Park Avenue Elementary School, and the other at Veteran’s Memorial Park. If those are full, you can park at Warwick Valley Middle School or Warwick Valley High School and ride the free shuttle buses that run all day. There is a $5 to $10 parking fee, with proceeds going to charity. Toni has one more important reason for getting there early; you get to avoid the long line for the crab cakes on Railroad Avenue!
Don’t Try To Do It All!
Agents Geoffrey Green and Nancy Sardo both had this advice. Do not try to do it all! There is so much to do, it’s easy to overdo. Even though the thought of visiting an orchard for some Warwick apple picking or winery may seem like a good idea, it’s simply too much to do in one day. Rather than apple picking, the orchards will be selling fresh-picked apples, ciders, and pies at the festival. Save your energy and spend the day checking out the crafters, the many musical acts performing throughout the day on several stages, and visiting the food vendors. And, as a special treat for all you garage sale lovers, you’ll be passing one after another as you pass the homes on your walks to and from the different areas of Warwick Applefest! You’ll need the full day to explore everything Warwick Applefest 2017 has to offer!
Like to Do It All Anyway? Come for the Weekend!
There’s lots to do on Warwick Applefest Weekend! Check out the great local orchards for Warwick apple picking, or take your pick from the wineries and distilleries in the area, many with tastings, food and music! The Carnival at Applefest will be open from 3:30 to 10:30 pm Friday and Saturday (with a wristband fee for unlimited rides each night; free admission at Applefest). Is antiquing your thing? Warwick has antique and consignment shops galore! You can explore the unique shops, the restaurants, and even take in a double feature at the Warwick Drive-In Theatre!
There are beautiful Bed & Breakfasts located throughout Warwick NY, as well as hotels and motels in nearby Goshen and Middletown. The Warwick Applefest website has links for finding lodging.
Family Fare
There is lots for kids to do at Warwick Applefest! Geoff, the proud father of two young sons, recommends checking out the kid-friendly vendors in Stanley-Deming Park. You’ll find activities for kids including musical entertainment, face painting, and pony rides. Don’t forget the Carnival rides, too! And your kids can even participate in an apple pie eating contest! Kids 12 and under can take part for a $1 donation (goes to the Warwick Ecumenical Food Pantry), and Ages 13 and up (adult level) can participate for a $5 donation! If baking is more your child’s style, kids 7-16 can enter the Apple Pie Baking Contest. Just bring the registration form available on the website to the booth along with the pie! After judging, slices will be sold to also benefit the Food Pantry.
What to Bring – and What Not to Bring – With You!
The whole family is welcome at Warwick Applefest, except for the furry four-legged members. No dogs allowed, but there are vendors that sell yummy dog treats you can bring home to them!
While some vendors do take credit cards, food vendors take only cash, so make sure you come prepared! There are ATMs located in various establishments in the Village.
Jacque Kraszewski recommends that you pack for the day like you’re going on a hike! Bring a backpack with water, snacks and wipes.
Because of the crowds, Nancy recommends leaving baby carriages at home, if at all possible. She also advises bringing insect repellent and being careful to protect yourself from bees (yes, it’s that time of year). If you do have a problem with bee allergies, it might be a good idea to make sure you pack whatever medications you need.
With all the different crafts, pies, fruits, and much, much more for sale, you might want to bring along some tote bags to carry your day’s haul!
And Our Most Important Tip?
Have a great time and come back throughout the year to experience all that Warwick has to offer!
Get To Know Warwick
It’s just 55 miles from New York City, but Warwick, New York might just as well be a world away. Scenic country roads wind through rich farmland, mountains, valleys, around lakes, wetlands and into the different villages and hamlets that make up this unique township.
Known not only for its natural beauty, Warwick is a town that prides itself on its sense of community, its schools, its love and support of the arts, its thriving main street with unique shops and restaurants, and the weaving of its rural character into the fabric of daily life. Farmers markets and restaurants feature locally grown produce. Pick-your-own apple orchards abound, as do local wineries, breweries, and distilleries. The natural terrain lends itself to a variety of activities; hiking, camping, skiing and snowboarding, boating, swimming, golfing and more.
Learn More About Warwick






