The new tax code limits the deduction of state and local property taxes, as well as income or sales taxes, to a total of $10,000. When the tax reform legislation was put into law at the beginning of the year, some experts felt that it could have a negative impact on the luxury housing market.
Capital Economics:
“The impact on expensive homes could be detrimental, with a limit on the MID raising taxes for those that itemize.”
Mark Zandi of Moody’s Analytics:
“The impact on house prices is much greater for higher-priced homes, especially in parts of the country where incomes are higher and there are thus a disproportionate number of itemizers, and where homeowners have big mortgages and property tax bills.”
The National Association of Realtors (NAR) predicted price declines in “high cost, higher tax areas” because of the tax changes. They forecasted a depreciation of 6.2% in New Jersey and 4.8% in Washington D.C. and New York.
What has actually happened?
Here are a few metrics to consider before we write-off the luxury market:
1. According to NAR’s latest Existing Home Sales Report, here is the percent change in sales from last year:
Homes sales between $500,000 – $750,000 are up 11.9%
Homes sales between $750,000 – $1M are up 16.8%
Homes sales over $1,000,000 are up 26.7%
2. In a report from Trulia, it was revealed that searches for “premium” homes as a percentage of all searches increased from 38.4% in the fourth quarter of 2017 to 41.4% in the first quarter of 2018.
“Median home values nationally rose 8 percent in March compared with a year earlier, while neighborhoods of San Francisco and San Jose, California, have increased more than 25 percent.
Prices in affluent areas in Delaware and New York, such as the Hamptons, also surged more than 20 percent.”
Bottom Line
Aaron Terrazas, Zillow’s Senior Economist, probably summed up real estate’s luxury market the best:
“We are seeing the opposite of what was expected. We have certainly not seen the doomsday predictions play out.”
Want to learn more about how the new Tax Code will affect your local housing market – Register for our Housing Market Update on, Tuesday June 12 at 9am.
Historically, the choice between renting or buying a home has been a tough decision.
Looking at the percentage of income needed to rent a median-priced home today (28.8%) vs. the percentage needed to buy a median-priced home (17.1%), the choice becomes obvious.
Every market is different. Before you renew your lease again, find out if you can put your housing costs to work by buying this year!
The Green Team welcomes James House, Megan Kimiecek and Kristine Many to the company. Each brings unique skills and experience to the Green Team family.
James House
James House became interested in pursuing a career in real estate while helping a family member sell his home and finding that he enjoyed the whole process. He also found that his background in sales, construction and social media marketing enhanced his ability to provide exceptional service to his clients.
Born and raised here, James knows not only Warwick but Orange and Sussex Counties. Besides his hands-on experience remodeling homes, he has also developed a network of contractors that he can recommend to buyers who may want to make improvements to their new home, or sellers who want to do some renovations prior to putting their home on the market.
Chris and Megan Kimiecik
Chris and Megan Kimiecik are a team. Married for 11 years, they spent the past 9 years buying and rehabbing properties throughout Orange County, while raising their three daughters, aged 3, 5 and 8. And now, as licensed real estate sales associates, they continue to work together.
Megan is a nurse working per diem in the Warwick Valley School District and Chris runs a busy landscaping business. But, no matter how busy their lives are, this team provides exceptional service to their real estate clients.
Kristine Many
Kristine (“Krissy”) Many sees herself as a Real Estate Consultant, not selling, not pushing. She is there to answer her clients’ questions and help them through the process. Krissy realizes that every transaction, every client is individual, no two the same. Sometimes she is called upon to act as life coach, or mom, or confidant or teacher. Each client is her #1 client, and her clients often become friends.
Krissy has some very important advise for sellers. Whether they want to move or have to move, it’s an emotional time. They need to disconnect and remember… sell the house, buy the home. She also has a word of caution for buyers. Never discuss important issues in the house. A bad experience with a nanny cam when she was looking at homes in Oklahoma taught her that the hard way.
Krissy loves the satisfaction of matchmaking people with what they need. She loves problem solving and making things happen. Learn more about Krissy on her webpage.
Excitement is building at Green Team New Jersey Realty, which launched in September of 2016. In less than two years it has become one of the top 20 real estate agencies in all of Sussex County. Furthermore, it is now one of the top 5 agencies in Vernon. Its formula for success is simple. Follow the systems and training set up by Geoffrey Green, founder of the Green Team Home Selling System in Warwick, New York and a partner in the New Jersey Office. Then put together a dynamic team of realtors who take to heart the Green Team’s commitment to exceed client expectations.
JOYCE ROGERS – FIRST QUARTER SALES LEADER, GOING FOR BROKE(R)
For Joyce Rogers, the first quarter of 2018 has shown what can be accomplished when someone sets a goal and keeps going until it’s achieved.
Joyce became the Sales Leader at Green Team New Jersey Realty for the first quarter of 2018. For Joyce, there is a great deal of personal satisfaction in joining the ranks of those who taught her. And, in this case, surpassing their sales. It has meant a lot of hard work, something Joyce is used to. She makes herself available to her clients whenever they need her. She appreciates the ability the Green Team affords to be able to work from wherever you are. She’s even closed a deal in Shoprite’s parking lot. Joyce feels she is hitting her stride and, while this is her first time achieving this goal, it is most likely not her last.
What makes Joyce’s achievement even more laudable is that she was going for her broker’s license at the same time. She began in December 2017, taking classes twice a week and studying hard and in March got her broker’s license on her first try!
Geoff Green describes Joyce as “driven,” and as someone he knows can make happen whatever she wants. Joyce appreciates Geoff’s support and his vision of the telecommuting model, as well as the camaraderie that sales associates have with each other. They work well together and help each other. And we applaud and congratulate Joyce on her double achievement, looking forward to seeing what comes in the future.
Meet Jared Kunish
Every new sales associate who joins the Green Team brings a unique background and skill set. And Jared Kunish is no exception. With his background as a hedge fund trading manager, Jared’s professional knowledge of interest rates and housing market trends was a definite plus. But Jared was looking for more than the fast-paced, stress-filled life he’d been living in the financial world. Rather, he was looking for a quality driven life. One to share with his three children. He began following his passions, expanding his knowledge base. Woodworking, making furniture with his own hands, helped ground him. So did being an amateur chef.
Becoming a real estate sales agent in Sussex County and a resident of Crystal Springs seems like a natural progression to Jared. He’s far away from the rat race. And he enjoys working with people, helping them find the place that will bring them happiness. Jared enjoys making things as easy as he can for his clients
Mortgage interest rates have risen by more than half of a point since the beginning of the year, and many assume that if mortgage rates rise, home values will fall. History, however, has shown this not to be true.
Where are home values today compared to the beginning of the year?
While rates have been rising, so have home values. Here are the most recent monthly price increases reported in the Home Price Insights Report from CoreLogic:
January: Prices were up 0.5% over the month before.
February: Prices were up 1% over the month before.
March: Prices were up 1.4% over the month before.
Not only did prices continue to appreciate, the level of appreciation accelerated over the first quarter. CoreLogic believes that home prices will increase by 5.2% over the next twelve months.
How can prices rise while mortgage rates increase?
“In the current housing market, the driving force behind the increase in prices is a low supply of both new and existing homes combined with historically low rates. As mortgage rates increase, the demand for home purchases will likely remain strong relative to the constrained supply and continue to put upward pressure on home prices.”
Bottom Line
If you are thinking about moving up to your dream home, waiting until later this year and hoping for prices to fall may not be a good strategy.
Every year, the New York Federal Reserve publishes the results of their Survey of Consumer Expectations (SCE). Each survey covers a wide range of topics including inflation, labor market, household finance, credit access and housing.
One of the many questions asked in the housing section of the survey was:
Assuming you had the financial resources to do so, would you like to OWN instead of RENT your primary residence?
Over three-quarters of respondents under the age of 50 said that they would prefer to own their home, rather than rent. While only 52.6% of those over 50 would prefer to own. The full breakdown can be found in the chart below.
When renters were asked what the average probability of owning a primary residence at some point in their future was, 66.4% of those under 50 believed that they would eventually own their home, while only 23% of those over 50 did.
Bottom Line
Many had wondered if young Americans had lost their desire to own a home, but for those renting now, that dream is still alive.
Recently released data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) suggests that now is a great time to sell your home. The concept of ‘supply & demand’ reveals that the best price for an item is realized when the supply of that item is low and the demand for that item is high.
Let’s see how this applies to the current residential real estate market.
SUPPLY
It is no secret that the supply of homes for sale has been far below the number needed to sustain a normal market for over a year at this point. A normal market requires six months of housing inventory to meet the demand. The latest report from NAR revealed that there is currently only a 3.6-month supply of houses on the market.
Supply is currently very low!
DEMAND
A report that was just released tells us that demand is very strong. The most recent Foot Traffic Report (which sheds light on the number of buyers who are actually out looking at homes) disclosed that “foot traffic grew 10.5 points to 52.4 in March as the new season approaches.”
Demand is currently very high!
Bottom Line
Waiting to sell will only increase the competition between you and all of the other sellers putting their houses on the market later this summer. If you are debating whether or not to list your home, let’s get together to discuss the conditions in our market.
According to Freddie Mac’s latestPrimary Mortgage Market Survey, interest rates for a 30-year fixed rate mortgage are currently at 4.61%, which is still near record lows in comparison to recent history!
The interest rate you secure when buying a home not only greatly impacts your monthly housing costs, but also impacts your purchasing power.
Purchasing power, simply put, is the amount of home you can afford to buy for the budget you have available to spend. As rates increase, the price of the house you can afford to buy will decrease if you plan to stay within a certain monthly housing budget.
The chart below shows the impact that rising interest rates would have if you planned to purchase a home within the national median price range while keeping your principal and interest payments between $1,850-$1,900 a month.
With each quarter of a percent increase in interest rate, the value of the home you can afford decreases by 2.5% (in this example, $10,000). Experts predict that mortgage rates will be closer to 5% by this time next year.
Act now to get the most house for your hard-earned money.
The numbers tell a story all their own. Despite the lack of inventory on the market, despite the specter of rising interest rates, loss of deductions due to new tax laws, etc., the Green Team is doing something very right and finding people buyers for their homes and finding homes for buyers! Both the Warwick and Vernon offices have more than doubled their sales volume from a year ago.
Orange County, NY Real Estate Market Report – April 2018 Results
The May Market Update was held on Tuesday, May 8 on Facebook Live. It was moderated by Geoff Green, Founder of Green Team Home Selling System. Panelists included sales agents Vikki Garby from the Warwick office, Keren Goren of the Vernon office, Michael Giannetto from Residential Home Funding and Ken Ford from Warwick Valley Financial Advisors.
If you missed the original live event, click here to watch. The discussion involved not only the housing market, but also perspectives on the economy. Our guest panelists have a great deal of knowledge and expertise, and the conversation was informative, educational and lively.
You can also sign up for monthly updates by email on the Green Team website.
We were experiencing technical difficulties:
Prior to the update going live, the following discussion took place:
The lack of inventory remains the biggest impediment to home sales, and the panel discussed the various reasons why people are reluctant to sell now. Vikki Garby stated that there were more buyers this winter than last spring, but that there is not a lot to buy. Cash buyers were coming in strong, with some people getting full asking price, or over. Keren Goren stated that many people she spoke to were just hanging on, waiting to see what would happen in the market.
Geoffrey Green told the panel that he is often asked, “Should I wait, because prices are going higher?” According to Vikki, sellers are worried about finding a home! People move up here from other places and swamp the market, and people who want to sell but stay in the area are concerned. Keren said that houses in Sussex are outdated, older than what buyers are looking for. Geoff said, “At the end of the day, if you’re moving and need to sell, try to sell and buy at the same time.”
The conversation turned to “fixer-uppers.” Geoff felt that most buyers don’t have the time, experience, and money to do renovation after buying a home. However, he asked the panel if they were seeing more buyers willing to take on a fixer-upper.
Keren cited a buyer who was willing to take out a loan to put a new roof on a house where everything else had been done. He was willing to go that step. Vikki stated there was not much to choose from and buyers trying to get into the area are having to be more flexible. Mike Giannetto stated that reno loans are now a big product and many people are taking the opportunity to fix up a house, put in new appliances, roof, etc., using equity.
Watch the video for more discussion, including a fascinating look into the world of economics and how the bond market impacts the interest rate that buyers may soon be paying.
Orange County, NY Real Estate Market Report – April 2018 Results
We are pleased to share with you the Housing Market Report for April 2018. We break down local real estate activities and provide you with stats, graphs, and analysis of our local and regional real estate market. In addition, we provide insight from some of the people most familiar with market trends: sales associates, mortgage funding specialists and financial advisers.
Average Days on the Market
The faster homes are selling, the hotter the market. Look for the lowest number on the graph, as opposed to the highest. The calculation in New York State is from the List Date to the Contract Date.
With numbers in for April, the average days on are the lowest they’ve been for this month for 5 years.
Average Price
Here again we’re seeing a trend. Prices are coming in at their highest point for April in 5 years, at an average of $247,849.
Average Sold to Asked Ratio
This is the percentage a house sold for under or over the last asking (not the original) price.
The higher the percentage, the hotter the market. This April the percentage dipped slightly below April 2016 and 2017, but sellers are still negotiating at approximately 3.5 points off the last asking price. As mentioned last month, this is an average of all of Orange County, with some areas having a higher percentage, and some a lower one.
Homes that sold at 100% or more of last asking price
Here again there was a slight dip below April 2016 and 2017, though the numbers remain higher than 2014 and 2015.
Units Sold
Units sold seems to have flat lined; however, more units were sold in April 2018 than in the four preceding years.
We Keep You Informed:
The Green Team Shares this information and more each month during our Live Housing Market Update. Register to join the webinar and hear directly from our participating Green Team Sales Associates who share their personal take on how the marketplace is doing.
Each month we are also joined by industry experts who share insights into the current financing environment as well as broader economic issues affecting the housing market.
Check out our past Housing Market Updates. Then Register to join our next one on June 12th at 9am.
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For 
interest rates and housing market trends was a definite plus. But Jared was looking for more than the fast-paced, stress-filled life he’d been living in the financial world. Rather, he was looking for a quality driven life. One to share with his three children. He began following his passions, expanding his knowledge base. Woodworking, making furniture with his own hands, helped ground him. So did being an amateur chef.
