Housing Market News May 4, 2018

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again | MyKCM

With home prices rising again this year, some are concerned that we may be repeating the 2006 housing bubble that caused families so much pain when it collapsed. Today’s market is quite different than the bubble market of twelve years ago. There are four key metrics that explain why:

  1. Home Prices
  2. Mortgage Standards
  3. Mortgage Debt
  4. Housing Affordability

1. HOME PRICES

There is no doubt that home prices have reached 2006 levels in many markets across the country. However, after more than a decade, home prices should be much higher based on inflation alone.

Frank Nothaft is the Chief Economist for CoreLogic (which compiles some of the best data on past, current, and future home prices). Nothaft recently explained:

“Even though CoreLogic’s national home price index got to the same level it was at the prior peak in April of 2006, once you account for inflation over the ensuing 11.5 years, values are still about 18% below where they were.” (emphasis added)

2. MORTGAGE STANDARDS

Some are concerned that banks are once again easing lending standards to a level similar to the one that helped create the last housing bubble. However, there is proof that today’s standards are nowhere near as lenient as they were leading up to the crash.

The Urban Institute’s Housing Finance Policy Center issues a Housing Credit Availability Index(HCAI). According to the Urban Institute:

“The HCAI measures the percentage of home purchase loans that are likely to default—that is, go unpaid for more than 90 days past their due date. A lower HCAI indicates that lenders are unwilling to tolerate defaults and are imposing tighter lending standards, making it harder to get a loan. A higher HCAI indicates that lenders are willing to tolerate defaults and are taking more risks, making it easier to get a loan.”

The graph below reveals that standards today are much tighter on a borrower’s credit situation and have all but eliminated the riskiest loan products.

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again | MyKCM

3. MORTGAGE DEBT

Back in 2006, many homeowners mistakenly used their homes as ATMs by withdrawing their equity and spending it with no concern for the ramifications. They overloaded themselves with mortgage debt that they couldn’t (or wouldn’t) repay when prices crashed. That is not occurring today.

The best indicator of mortgage debt is the Federal Reserve Board’s household Debt Service Ratio for mortgages, which calculates mortgage debt as a percentage of disposable personal income.

At the height of the bubble market a decade ago, the ratio stood at 7.21%. That meant over 7% of disposable personal income was being spent on mortgage payments. Today, the ratio stands at 4.48% – the lowest level in 38 years!

4. HOUSING AFFORDABILITY

With both house prices and mortgage rates on the rise, there is concern that many buyers may no longer be able to afford a home. However, when we look at the Housing Affordability Index released by the National Association of Realtors, homes are more affordable now than at any other time since 1985 (except for when prices crashed after the bubble popped in 2008).

4 Reasons Why Today’s Housing Market is NOT 2006 All Over Again | MyKCM

Bottom Line

After using four key housing metrics to compare today to 2006, we can see that the current market is not anything like the bubble market.

Housing Market News May 3, 2018

Sussex County Real Estate Market Report for April 2018

 

Green Team Business Review – April 2018

There has been a lot of excitement at the Green Team lately.  Much of it was generated by the Launch Competition, which was a tremendous success this year.  You can read about this annual contest, its goals, the winners, and the prizes here.   In addition, Joyce Rogers was named the recipient of the First Quarter Sales Leader Award for the Vernon office.

Making Market Updates More Informative and More Accessible

While it seems that would be enough to report, there’s more.  The Green Team strives to bring its agents and its clients up-to-date market information as well as insights into the mortgage market,  events that impact interest rates, and more.  To provide all this information in an expanded,  far-reaching format, the Green Team is going Live on Facebook!

Sussex County, NJ Real Estate Market Report – March 2018 Results

We are pleased to share with you the Housing Market Report for March 2018. We break down local real estate activities and provide you with stats, graphs, and analysis of our local and regional real estate markets. The April Market Update was held Tuesday, April 17 on Facebook Live.  It was moderated by Geoff Green, the Broker/Manager of Green Team Home Selling System. Panelists included sales agents Barbara Tesa and Keren Gonen.   In addition, Jeremy Miller of First Home Bank provided insights on mortgage and housing industry stats.   Dan Habib, of MBS Highway, a firm that provides insight and analytics to industries, discussed where interest rates are headed and the topic of affordability.  Watch the video on our Facebook page to hear what these experts had to share.

Also, you can sign up on the Green Team website to receive monthly updates by email.

Average Days on the Market

The faster homes are selling, the hotter the market.  Look for the lowest number on the graph, as opposed to the highest. 

We take a snapshot of the past 5 years and see how the current market compares.  The average number of days on the market is the lowest it’s been for March since 2014, coming in at 92.51 days.  This is great news for sellers, but not such good news for buyers.

Average Sold to Asked Ratio

The percentage a house sold for under or over the last asking price (not the original price).

The Average Sold to Asked Ratio has been closely tracking 2017 numbers and is above the prior three years.

 

Homes that sold at 100% or more of last asking price

The first 3 months of 2018 have consistently been higher than the previous four years. In March almost 35 percent of homes sold at 100% or more of their last asking price..

Average Price

There have been some interesting stats on average price.  February 2018 was the lowest month in 5 years, but the March numbers are climbing up, higher than March 2016 and 2017, closing in on 2014, and and trying to close the gap with 2015’s numbers.

Barbara stated that so many homes are at or below the $200,000 mark that they’re dragging down the County average.  There are also foreclosures below $100,000 that need so much work they’re just tear downs.  Add the underwater inventory, short sales or foreclosures into the mix and that further brings down the average.  According to Keren, banks are getting smarter, spending $20,000 to paint, put in new kitchen, flooring, or trying to make a house a little more acceptable.  However, more often than not, the house is not in good enough condition for new buyers..  Buyers are willing to pay more, but don’t want to pay more when they see mold, etc.   Banks are putting houses up at prices too high for flippers to purchase, flip and make a profit on.   When a foreclosure does come up that is in good condition, intense bidding wars ensue.

Units Sold

March dipped below the number of units sold in 2017, though it remained higher than the previous three years.

Keren stated that the banks have been holding on to inventory, waiting to release foreclosures in the spring market for a higher return on their investment.  They’re thinking things are bad right now, so let’s just hold on and wait for the spring market. Keren Goren has experience in real estate investment, flipping homes, etc., so she brings a valuable perspective to the conversation.

 

Next Market Update

Mark your calendars and join us on Tuesday, May 8 at 9:15 a.m. for our next Facebook Live Market Update.  Our special guests will be Michael Giannetto of Residential Home Financing, who will be offering substantive updates on the mortgage market and Ken Ford of Warwick Valley Financial Advisors, who will discuss other economic factors impacting the housing market.  If you can’t make it at 9:15, be sure to watch the video later!

 

 

 

Housing Market News May 3, 2018

Orange County Real Estate Market Report for April 2018

 

Green Team Business Review – April 2018

There has been a lot of excitement at the Green Team lately.  Much of it was generated by the Launch Competition, which was a tremendous success this year.  You can read about this annual contest, its goals, the winners and the prizes here.  Then Lucyann Tinnirello was selected as the new Broker Manager of the Warwick office.  In addition, Nancy Sardo was named the recipient of the First Quarter Sales Leader Award in Warwick.

Making Market Updates More Informative and More Accessible

While it seems that would be enough to report, there’s more.  The Green Team strives to bring its agents and its clients up-to-date market information as well as insight into the mortgage market,  events that impact interest rates, and more.  To provide all this information in an expanded,  far-reaching format, the Green Team is going Live on Facebook.

Orange County, NY Real Estate Market Report – March 2018 Results

We are pleased to share with you the Housing Market Report for March 2018. We break down local real estate activities and provide you with stats, graphs, and analysis of our local and regional real estate market. The April Market Update was held Tuesday, April 17 on Facebook Live.  It was moderated by Geoff Green, the Broker/Manager of Green Team Home Selling System. Panelists included sales agents Vikki Garby and Jacqueline Kraszewski.   In addition, Jeremy Miller of First Home Bank provided insights on mortgage and housing industry stats.   Dan Habib, of MBS Highway, a firm that provides insight and analytics to industries, discussed where interest rates are headed and the topic of affordability.  Watch the video on our Facebook page to hear what these experts had to share.

Also, you can sign up on the Green Team website to receive a monthly update by email.

Average Days on the Market

The faster homes are selling, the hotter the market.  Look for the lowest number on the graph, as opposed to the highest.  The calculation in New York State is from the List Date to the Contract Date.

We take a snapshot of the past 5 years and see how the current market compares.  The average number of days on the market is the lowest it’s been for March since 2014.  This shows a stronger market for sellers.  However, it’s not the best news for buyers.

Average Price

Prices have not been on the comeback for some time, but last June they started to rise and are now coming out of the gate significantly higher. According to Geoff, inventory continues to be a big problem. He thinks that one of the issues is that some sellers still can’t get out of their homes based on refinancing they did ten years ago.  They just can’t sell until prices rise, and he believes that will be the key to unlocking inventory.

Jacqueline stated there are just not enough houses out there to show.  The average length of time that most people stay in a house is ten years, and ten years ago was when the market really crashed.  Some people are still underwater and either can’t get out, or don’t want to just break even; they’d like to make a profit.

Vikki added that this year some things are helping.  Last year appraisals were hurting the market.  This year they seem to be getting more realistic based on what is actually happening in the market.   There is very little supply for the demand.     Market traffic was higher in February 2018 than it was in May of 2017.  Sellers are feeling their strength and power in this market.  Even banks are seeing the market potential and wanting to get in on the act, raising prices on properties they would have sold at much lower prices in previous markets.  Vikki has experience in real estate investing, flipping homes, etc., so she brings a valuable perspective to the conversation.

Geoff mentioned that some banks are even holding their position in inventory and renting out units, something which is highly unusual.  Banks generally unload inventory. For them to hold and rent is almost unheard of.

Average Sold to Asked Ratio

The percentage a house sold for under or over the last asking price (not the original price).

The higher the percentage, the hotter the market. Again, March 2018 is outpacing the last 4 years, with sellers negotiating approximately 3.5 points off their last asking price.  It’s important to remember that this is an average of all Orange County; in some areas the percentage will be higher and in others, lower.

Homes that sold at 100% or more of last asking price

Again, the numbers continue to rise.  March 2018 is the highest it’s been since 2014, with almost 35% of homes going for 100% or more of the last asking price.  In other words, expect bidding wars!

Units Sold

There hasn’t been a dip from the previous year in many years.  However less homes were sold in March than in previous years.  Vikki felt that people closing in March were closing on those deals made in December and January, when inventory was way down.

Jacque stated that the market is hard on people starting out, those buyers in the under $300,000 range. There is not much available at that price point, and if there is something, it’s usually a total handyman special, which people don’t want!

Geoff agreed that currently, couples are usually both employed and don’t have the time, expertise or inclination to start making repairs and remodels to the home they purchase.  They would rather pay top dollar for a move-in-ready home.  His advice for sellers: spend time renovating your home before putting in on the market.  Bathrooms, kitchens, windows all need to be in good shape.  Paint, new siding, fixing up the landscaping, and replacing the roof if necessary, will bring a good return on your investment.  Buyers are willing to pay top dollar!

Next Market Update

Mark your calendars and join us on Tuesday, May 8 at 9:15 a.m. for our next Facebook Live Market Update.  Our special guests will be Michael Giannetto of Residential Home Financing, who will be offering substantive updates on the mortgage market and Ken Ford of Warwick Valley Financial Advisors, who will discuss other economic factors impacting the housing market.  If you can’t make it at 9:15, be sure to watch it later!

 

 

 

 

 

 

 

Agency News and Awards April 26, 2018

Meet Lucyann Tinnirello, the new Broker Manager of Green Team’s Warwick office.

 

Why a broker manager?

With his business expanding and taking most of his time, Geoff Green knew it was time to hand over the reigns of day-to-day management of the Green Team’s Warwick office to a new broker manager.  Furthermore, he understood it would take someone special to do the job.

First of all, the perfect candidate would have to be experienced in real estate and able to handle the detailed management of the office. In addition, the candidate would have to be someone who was not ego driven.  Finally, it would take someone able to work with a growing team of agents to solve problems and help them succeed in their businesses.  Fortunately, the perfect candidate was already a member of the Green Team family.

Meet Lucyann Tinnirello, the perfect candidate…

Green Team Home Selling System is happy to welcome Lucyann Tinnirello as its first Broker Manager.  With 34 years of experience, Lucyann knows the business inside and out.  Thus, she understands that real estate is mostly about solving problems and developing relationships.

Lucyann sees the Broker Manager position as being an opportunity for caring, helping, resolving problems and promoting an atmosphere of teamwork, where agents share with their co-workers what their experiences have taught them.  However, she also understands there will be challenges. In managing workflow, she knows she must practice neutrality, as well as empathy and efficiency. She feels well prepared to take on the responsibilities of this position, having been co-owner of her own firm. There is a motto that Lucyann lives by: “It’s nice to be important, but it’s more important to be nice.”  Her fellow agents agree that Lucyann embodies this motto and is the person who can handle this job.  She is both well liked and respected by her peers.

A message for Lucyann’s clients…

By the way, Geoff has a message for Lucyann’s clients.  “Fear not! Lucyann will continue to list and sell homes!  This position was designed for an active sales person, with support staff and systems providing back-up for the Broker Manager.”

One more word of wisdom…

Lucyann has one more bit of wisdom to live by. Football coach Lou Holtz said this at a seminar and she’s never forgotten it.  “WIN…”  or “What’s Important Now!” And for Lucyann, what’s important now is doing the best job she can as the Green Team’s new Broker Manager.

Agency News and Awards April 19, 2018

Green Team’s 2018 Launch Competition was a blast!

 

Green Team’s Launch Competition is all about inspiring sales agents to get back to basics.  It’s about enhancing those skills that lead to the exceptional client service that the Green Team is known for. This annual event, with agents competing individually and on teams, is both fun and energizing and sets the stage for success each year.

The CRM is one of the most important tools an agent can use

The Green Team’s custom-designed CRM (customer relationship management system) is one of the most important tools an agent can use.  It provides a way to input and keep all needed information in one place.  By keeping track of client information, activities pertaining to transactions and much more, the CRM can be an agent’s best friend.  Most of all, it enables agents to refine their client appreciation programs, keep in touch with past, present and future clients, and maintain those relationships.

According to Geoff Green, agents who fully know and use the CRM can provide better service to their clients while getting better control of their businesses and their lives. The Launch Competition offers incentives for agents to really build outstanding client appreciation programs, using CRM as the mechanism.

First Place Winner, Third Place Winner and a Winning Team

For the first time, agents from both offices competed against, well, everyone for the top three places.  And it was a “friendly,” albeit tight race, run by some very motivated participants.

Keren Gonen of the Vernon office started 2018 just as she finished 2017…  on top. With the highest number of points, Keren won first prize in the individual category, and what a prize it is!  Provided by Jeremy Miller of First Home Bank, she received a full conference pass to Inman ConnectNY 2019, along with a three-night hotel stay for the four-day conference.  Keren is the first to admit she is highly competitive and motivated. However, there was another reason for her high score.

Last year Keren participated in Launch, competing only with her Vernon colleagues.  She did well, coming in third place, then stopped using those basic skills she had learned.  And found that stopping was affecting her business!  Consequently, she went back to using the CRM. As a result, she says, “All the information is there!  Instead of sorting through texts and emails, it’s easy to keep track of everything, including notes.”

Team work…

Furthermore, as captain of one of the Vernon office’s two teams, Keren worked with a group of highly motivated agents. She stressed to everyone the importance of using the system, updating their databases, and maintaining them.  When newer agents hadn’t yet grasped how to best utilize their CRM, Keren did training sessions with them. Keren’s team went on to win the Vernon Office team competition and team members received gift certificates to a local florist.  Congratulations to Keren Gonen,  Heidi Hyland, Joyce Rogers, Cathie Witte, Kimberly Lasalandra, Ted Van Laar, Loida Claudio, Jamie Dalton, Yvette Saldana and Tom Shields. And thanks to Pam Zachowski’s team for their participation in the competition.

Heidi does it again…

Heidi Hyland was definitely a major asset to her team, but her participation and efforts led to another win, as well.  She scored third in the individual competition and was presented by Geoff with a $100 gift certificate to her favorite restaurant!  Heidi is another highly motivated agent.  Last year she came in second place in the Vernon office’s individual competition, and who knows how high she’ll place next year!

 

 

 

 

 

 

Second Place … and another winning team!

From the look of delight on his face, it’s almost as though Dean Diltz of the Warwick office had strategized to come in second so that he could win this great 43” LCD TV.  However, we know that’s not really the case.  Right, Dean?  And while he admits to using the CRM intermittently, during Launch his priority was to take stock of how it worked and update his records with the help of CSA Ali Yurchuck.

One of the things that kept Dean motivated during the competition was being fully vested in helping his team.  Angela Murphy led Murphy’s Master Minds by being an upbeat motivator.  She kept on top of the team members, organizing social gatherings  so they would bond.  And when agents needed help learning how to input data,  there were CRM training sessions.  As winners of the team competition in Warwick, Murphy’s Master Minds received gift certificates to a local car wash.  Congratulations to team members Angela Murphy, Dean Diltz, Terry Gavan, Nancy Sardo, Tom Folino, Toni Kreusch, Pip KleinLinda VanDeWeert, Jim Moser, June Cosgrove-Hays, Walter Ross and Jane Reilly.  And thanks to Jacque Kraszewski and her team for their efforts and participation!

 

The bar is set high for next year

Each year there is an increased commitment to Launch as shown by the numbers.   Winning scores have doubled since last year, and scores indicate that many agents have a better understanding of the CRM.  In addition, prizes offered this year provided an added incentive.  Most of all, no one loses when they participate in the annual Launch.  Each agent finishes the competition with a better understanding of the CRM and the Customer Appreciation Program so they can better serve their clients…  It’s a win-win for everyone!

Housing Market News April 8, 2018

Moving up Is MORE Affordable Now Than Almost Any Other Time in 40 Years

If you are considering selling your current home, to either move up to a larger home or into a home in an area that better suits your current family needs, great news was just revealed.

Last week, Trulia posted a blog, Not Your Father’s Housing Market, which examined home affordability over the last 40+ years (1975-2016). Their research revealed that:

“Nationally, homes are just about the most affordable they’ve been in the last 40 years… the median household could afford a home 1.5 times more expensive than the median home price. In 1980, the median household could only afford about 3/4 of the median home price.

Despite relatively stagnant incomes, affordability has grown due to the sharp drop in mortgage rates over the last 30 years – from a high of over 16% in the 1980s to under 4% by 2016.

Of the nation’s 100 largest metros, only Miami became unaffordable between 1990 and 2016. Meanwhile, 22 metros have flipped from being unaffordable to becoming affordable in that same time frame.”

Here is a graph showing the Affordability Index compared to the 40-year average:

Moving up Is MORE Affordable Now Than Almost Any Other Time in 40 Years | MyKCM

The graph shows that housing affordability is better now than at any other time in the last forty years, except during the housing crash last decade.

(Remember that during the crash you could purchase distressed properties – foreclosures and short sales – at 20-50% discounts.)

There is no doubt that with home prices and mortgage rates on the rise, the affordability index will continue to fall. That is why if you are thinking of moving up, you probably shouldn’t wait.

Bottom Line

If you have held off on moving up to your family’s dream home because you were hoping to time the market, that time has come.

Housing Market News April 8, 2018

The Cost of Waiting: Interest Rates Edition [INFOGRAPHIC]

 

Some Highlights:

  • Interest rates are projected to increase steadily heading into 2019.
  • The higher your interest rate, the more money you end up paying for your home and the higher your monthly payment will be.
  • Rates are still low right now. Don’t wait until rates hit 5% to start searching for your dream home!
Housing Market News April 8, 2018

Are You Aware of How Much Equity You Have in Your Home? You May Be Surprised!

 CoreLogic’s latest Equity Report revealed that 675,000 US homeowners regained positive equity in their homes in 2017. This is great news for the country, as 95.1% of all mortgaged properties are now in a positive equity situation.

U.S homeowners with mortgages (roughly 63% of all the properties) have seen their equity increase by a total of $908.4 billion since the fourth quarter 2016, an increase of 12.2%, year over year.”

Price Appreciation = Good News for Homeowners

Frank Nothaft, CoreLogic’s Chief Economist, explains:

Home-price growth has been the primary driver of home-equity wealth creation. The CoreLogic Home Price Index grew 6.2 percent during 2017. The largest calendar-year increase since 2013. Likewise, the average growth in home equity was more than $15,000 during 2017, the most in four years.”

He also believes this is a great sign for the market in 2018, saying:

“Because wealth gains spur additional consumer purchases, the rise in home-equity wealth during 2017 should add more than $50 billion to U.S. consumption spending over the next two to three years.”  

This is great news for homeowners! But, do they realize that their equity position has changed?

A study by Fannie Mae suggests that many homeowners are not aware that they have regained equity in their homes as their investment has increased in value. For example, their study showed that 23% of Americans still believe their home is in a negative equity position when, in actuality, CoreLogic’s report shows that only 4.9% of homes are in that position (down from 6.3% in Q4 2016).

The study also revealed that only 37% of Americans believe that they have “significant equity” (greater than 20%) when in actuality, 83% do!

Are You Aware of How Much Equity You Have in Your Home? You May Be Surprised! | Simplifying The Market

This means that 46% of Americans with a mortgage fail to realize the opportune situation they are in. With a sizeable equity position, many homeowners could easily move into a house (either larger or smaller) that better meets their current needs.

Fannie Mae spoke out on this issue in their report:

“Homeowners who underestimate their homes’ values not only underestimate their home equity, they also likely underestimate 1) how large a down payment they could make with their home equity, 2) their chances of qualifying for mortgages, and, therefore, 3) their opportunities for selling their current homes and for buying different homes.”

Bottom Line

If you are one of the many Americans who is unsure of how much equity you have built in your home, don’t let that be the reason you fail to move on to your dream home in 2018! Let’s get together to evaluate your situation!

Selling a Home April 6, 2018

Competition is Coming, Are You Thinking of Selling Your Home?

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The number of building permits issued for single-family homes is the best indicator of how many newly built homes will rise over the next few months. According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development Residential Sales Report, the number of these permits were up 7.4% over last year.

How will this impact buyers?

More inventory means more options. Lawrence Yun, NAR’s Chief Economistexplained this is good news for the housing market – especially for those looking to buy:

“This rise in single-family housing construction will help tame home price growth, and the increase in multifamily units should continue to help slow rent growth.”

How will this impact sellers?

More inventory means more competition. Today, because of the tremendous lack of inventory, a seller can expect:

  1. A great price on their home as buyers outbid each other for it
  2. A quick sale as buyers have so little to choose from
  3. Fewer hassles as buyers don’t want to “rock the boat” on the deal

With an increase in competition, the seller may not enjoy these same benefits. As Chief EconomistNela Richardson, added:

“Because existing home inventory has been so low for so long, new construction is taking a larger share of the market…Builders meet the buyers and see the demand firsthand.”

Bottom Line

If you are considering selling your house, you’ll want to beat this new competition to market to ensure you get the most attention for your listing and the best price. Start by finding out what your home is worth with a free, no obligation Home Evaluation.

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Housing Market News April 6, 2018

99% of Experts Agree: Home Prices Will Increase

Some believe that the combined effects of the new tax code and rising mortgage rates will have an adverse impact on residential real estate prices in 2018. However, the clear majority of recently surveyed housing experts believe that home values will continue to rise this year.

What is the Home Price Expectation Survey?

Each quarter, Pulsenomics surveys a nationwide panel of economists, real estate experts and investment & market strategists. Those surveyed include experts such as:

  • Daniel Bachman, Senior Manager, U.S. Economics at Deloitte Services, LP
  • Kathy Bostjancic, Head of U.S. Macro Investors Service at Oxford Economics
  • David Downs, Real Estate Finance Professor at VCU
  • Edward Pinto, Resident Fellow at American Enterprise Institute
  • Albert Saiz, Director at MIT Center for Real Estate

Where do these experts see home values headed in 2018?

Here is a breakdown of where they see home values twelve months from now:

  • 21.6% believe prices will appreciate by 6% or more
  • 71.6% believe prices will appreciate between 3 and 5.99%
  • 5.7% believe prices will appreciate between 0 and 2.99%
  • Only 1.1% believe prices will depreciate

Bottom Line

Almost ninety-nine percent of the top experts studying residential real estate believe that prices will appreciate this year, and over 93% believe home values will appreciate by at least 3%.