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Should We Be Looking at Unemployment Numbers Differently?
The New York Times recently ran an article regarding unemployment titled: Don’t Cheer Too Soon. Keep an Eye on the Core Jobless Rate. The piece suggests we should look at unemployment numbers somewhat differently. The author of the article, Jed Kolko, is a well-respected economist who is currently the Chief Economist at Indeed, the world’s largest online jobs site. Previously, he was Chief Economist and VP of Analytics at Trulia, the online real estate site.
Kolko suggests “the coronavirus pandemic has broken most economic charts and models, and all the numbers we regularly watch need a closer look.” He goes on to explain that the decline in the unemployment number reported by the Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) earlier this month was driven by a drop in temporary layoffs. If we strip those out, we’re left with what Kolko calls the core unemployment rate. Many economists have struggled with how to deal with the vast number of temporary layoffs, as a complete shutdown of the economy has never happened before. As the article states, in the last unemployment report:
“73 percent of all unemployed people said they were temporarily unemployed, which means they had a return-to-work date or they expected to return to work in six months. Before the pandemic, temporary unemployment was never more than one-quarter of total unemployment.”
The core unemployment rate handles this issue and also deals with another concern economists have discussed for years: the exclusion of the marginally attached. These are people who are available and want to work, but count as out of the labor force rather than unemployed because they haven’t searched for work in the past four weeks.
Kolko’s core rate does three things:
- Takes out temporary unemployment
- Retains the rest of the standard unemployment definition: permanent job losers, job leavers, and people returning to or entering the labor force
- Adds in the marginally attached
Removing the temporarily unemployed makes sense according to the article:
“Initial pandemic relief efforts focused on money for people to manage a temporary loss of income and funds to keep businesses afloat until they could bring their workers back. The hope and the goal is for the temporarily unemployed to return to their old jobs, rather than have them lose their jobs and have to search for new ones when jobs have become scarcer.”
The Bad News and the Good News
Clearly, the adjustments Kolko makes dramatically impact the way we look at unemployment. The bad news is, using his core rate, there was an increase in unemployment from April to May. The conventional rate reported by the BLS showed a decrease in unemployment.
The good news is that the core rate compares more favorably to the last recession in 2008. Here’s the breakdown:
Bottom Line
The unemployment rate is a key indicator of how the economy is doing. Heading into a highly contested election this November, the BLS report releasing next week will be scrutinized like no other by members on both sides of the aisle. Mr. Kolko’s take is just one additional way to evaluate how unemployment is impacting American families.
Is the Economic Recovery Already Underway?
The Wall Street Journal just released their latest monthly Survey of Economists. In an article on the findings, they reported:
“The U.S. economy will be in recovery by the third quarter of this year, economists said in a survey that also concluded the labor market will fare better than previously expected following the effects of the coronavirus pandemic.”
Clearly, the latest jobs report from the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics confirmed the labor market is outperforming expectations, as it revealed that 2.5 million jobs were added. Directly before the release, experts forecasted that we would lose over 8 million jobs.
A second revelation indicating the economy is already about to turn around was also somewhat unexpected. More than 9 out of 10 economists surveyed believe the recovery has already begun this quarter or will begin in the third quarter. Here are the results of the survey question asking when the recovery will begin:
The survey also asked what type of recovery the economists expect.
More than 8 out of 10 believe it will be a form of a ‘V’ recovery:
- A true ‘V’ with a sharp drop and a sharp rebound
- A ‘Nike Swoosh’ with a sharp drop and a more gradual recovery, coined after the company’s logo
Some experts, possibly concerned about a second wave of COVID-19, call for a ‘W’ recovery – a double dip recession.
Others call for a ‘U’ with a prolonged bottom.
A very small percentage project the dreaded ‘L’ recovery, which is no recovery at all for the foreseeable future (think of the Great Recession).
Here’s the breakdown:
Bottom Line
Though we still have a long and difficult journey ahead, it appears the worst for both the economy and the unemployment situation may be in our rearview mirror. Even with the current economy real estate is still the best investment. Connect with one of our Sales Agents today to talk about your home buying or selling journey.
April 2020 Housing Market Update
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Covid19 has caused economic turmoil, health crises and uncertainty. However, a historical perspective may help us manage emotions and enable us to see what is happening in the housing market and navigate it accordingly. Below is a recording of the Housing Market Update as well as a summary of the most important discussion points.
National – Historical Perspective
Will this be like 2008, the start of the great recession?
The Housing Market was greatly impacted at that time because it was the catalyst that caused the Great Recession. Home price changes during last 5 recessions indicate that recessions do not necessarily impact the housing market. In 3 of the last 5 recessions, housing markets actually increased.
Housing and Mortgage Crash
In 2007, 2008 and 2009, the annual home price depreciation was significant. However, at the time we were dealing with sub-prime lending, etc. However, looking further back, to the Dot.com crash and 9/11 market crash, there was a significant S&P 500 stock market correction. Yet prices in the housing market continued to increase. There were good fundamentals in place.
Annual Home Price Appreciation
In any marketplace, you have to look at overall values. Are assets undervalued or overvalued? With the run-up to 2008, from 2000 to 2005, there were major price increases year over year. 6.5% was the lowest increase, with the highest being 12.5%. However, since 2014, 6.4% has been the highest increase. We haven’t gone back to those major subprime lending issues that happened before.
Mortgage Credit Availability and Affordability
The Great Recession required mortgage industry restructuring. That, in turn, led to qualified buyers not being able to borrow. This time around, it’s a different landscape. We don’t have a subprime lending bubble in the residential housing market. Loans will be processed for good buyers with good credit. Mortgage requirements are tightening a bit, but not to an unreasonable level. Another analytic compares total home equity cashed out in the years 2005-2007 and 2017-2019. People were using their homes “like ATMs” during the former period. The leverage people are putting on their homes has dropped from $824 Billion during 2005-2007 to $232 Billion during 2017-2019. 53.8% of all homes in America have at least 50% equity.
The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median-priced home has dropped from 25.4% in 2006 to 14.8% today. Affordability is in much better shape, largely due to mortgage rates being very low.
The Impact of Unemployment
Concerns about job losses are very real. A breakdown of the April 3 Unemployment Report shows the different sectors affected. 59.5% are from restaurant services and drinking places. The accommodation industry, retail trade, temporary help services, child daycare workers, health care office workers and construction workers make up most of the balance. In other words, these are jobs that should be coming back as soon as these businesses can operate again. It may take some time until people are confident and comfortable enough to get back out there. The next numbers come out on May 8, 2020 and will be discussed during the May HMU.
Unemployment rates and home sales do not seem to have a direct relationship. Current Unemployment Rates were compared to past financial crises. In 1933, during the Great Depression, unemployment rates were at a high of 24.9%. Goldman Sachs is predicting unemployment to be 15% in 2020. They are also predicting that number to go down to 6-8% in 2021, 5% in 2022 and 4% in 2023.
Based on data from the US Department of Labor accessed by Haver Analysis, the current employment situation is more like a natural disaster than a recession. The problem is how long this natural disaster, Covid19, is going to last. There are many unknowns, and no answers. We’ll be tracking what happens as parts of the economy reopen.
Historical look at Existing Home Sales Price
The market was hot the first two months of 2020, with average home sale price higher in January and February than those months in the preceding four years. It will be interesting to see what the numbers show over the next several months.
The above analytic shows Existing Home Sales Prices from January 1999 to January 2020. Even if you bought at the peak of 2007 or 2008, as Geoff did, just before the housing market plunged, it took 8 years for the market to recover. Historically speaking, people moved after an average of 6 years. That number is now inching up to 9 years. The average homeowner generally doesn’t buy or sell during a period of up or down. They want to wait and gain equity in their home. However, if you are not going to buy, what will you do? Rent? If so, you’re not building equity, you’re not getting tax write-offs, and other benefits of home ownership.
Inventory
In 2007, there were 8.2 months of inventory. Right now there are 3.1 months of inventory available. The market is much hotter now than in 2007 (leading into the Great Recession). Geoff believes that now is a very good time to buy, and not a bad time to sell, either, as inventory levels are so low. Historically, 6 months of supply is an average market. We are now down to 3 months of inventory. He does not see this number climbing anytime soon. Many sellers are not putting their homes on the market now, wanting to wait and see what will be happening. And, while people have to weigh their options, the low inventory can benefit those putting their home on the market.
April 2020 Local Stats
Orange & Sussex Counties
In Orange County, Units Sold were actually better in March than in February. Average Sales Price was way up. In Sussex County, Units Sold and Average Sales Price both coming out at a good solid pace. It will be interesting to see what the stats reflect when we take a look at our next Housing Market Update. At that time we’ll see the impact of Covid closures and stay-at-home regulations.
Housekeeping Items
Panel Discussion
Geoff Green was joined by Ken Flood of Quest Financial Services and Ken Aulicino of Family First Funding LLC. Vikki Garby and Carol Buchanan of Green Team New York Realty and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty represented the real estate agents’ points of view. Discussion ranged from the current state of commercial and residential real estate markets. There was positive feedback on how agents are adapting to the Covid19 regulations and are still able to assist clients and close deals. All three agents spoke of strong, serious buyer interest. Ken Flood discussed the financial market and Ken Aucilino the mortgage industry. Because of the wealth of information and graphics as well as the fascinating panel discussion, it is highly recommended that you watch the webinar. Click here to view the April 2020 Housing Market Update.
Remember to sign up below for the next Housing Market Update
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TEAM UP FOR HOPE 2020
Green Team Realty receives NAMI Orange Appreciation Award
On behalf of Green Team Realty, Geoff Green proudly accepted NAMI Orange‘s Appreciation Award. The presentation took place at NAMI Orange’s 15th Annual Meeting. It was held on November 25,at the Orange County Department of Mental Health in Goshen, NY
Presenting the Award
Through its Team Up for Hope initiative, the Green Team raised both awareness and funds for NAMI Orange. As Green Team Content Marketing Manager and a member of NAMI Orange, it was an honor to present the Appreciation Award to Geoff Green. And it was an honor to read the following inscription to Geoff and all those present:
NAMI Orange Appreciation Award presented to Green Team Realty – a real estate company that cares what happens in its community, represented by Geoff Green.
Besides their Team Up for Hope’s very successful fundraiser which benefited NAMI Orange, Green Team Realty also organized a webinar to increase public awareness featuring two NAMI Orange members who discussed how mental health issues impact the family as well as the individual – and who educated people as to how they could get the support and the services that they might need. An excellent public service! We are honored to have had Team Up for Hope select NAMI Orange as a recipient of their charitable good works.
What is NAMI?
The National Alliance on Mental Illness, “NAMI,” began at a kitchen table in 1979. A small group of families whose lives had been impacted by mental illness got together and decided to take some action. Now, 40 years later, it is the largest grassroots mental health organization in the United States. There are 48 NAMI State Organizations and more than 600 local affiliates.
According to NAMI’s website, the organization “envisions:a world where all people affected by mental illness live healthy, fulfilling lives supported by a community that cares.” Their mission is to provide “advocacy, education, support and public awareness so that all individuals and families affected by mental illness can build better lives.”
Mental illness. Let’s talk statistics
These statistics are posted on the NAMI website And they’re frightening.
1 in 5 U.S. adults experience mental illness each year
1 in 25 U.S. adults experience serious mental illness each year
1 in 6 U.S. youth aged 6-17 experience a mental health disorder each year
50% of all lifetime mental illness begins by age 14, and 75% by age 24
Suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death among people aged 10-34
Mental illness. Let’s talk reality
When someone you know and care about becomes one of these statistics, family members and friends suddenly find themselves in a world turned upside down. They don’t understand what has happened to their loved one, what to do, what to say, And the stigma surrounding mental illness can make it difficult to discuss the challenges with friends, further isolating both patient and family. My family has lived this reality. My youngest daughter, Andrea, was diagnosed with bipolar and anxiety disorders at the age of 14. There was nothing that prepared us for the journey we suddenly found ourselves on. No guidebook to explain the mania, then the plunges into deep despair. There were prescriptions for lots of medications in lots of combinations, there was therapy. However, there was nothing that helped us all to understand what was happening within her brain. No advice on how to communicate or set limits. No one telling me it wasn’t my fault. Chaos ruled our lives, exacerbated by loneliness.
Mental illness. It’s not a casserole disease
When someone is diagnosed with cancer or other catastrophic illness, there is often a rallying of support from the community. Friends and family sign up to provide meals for the family. People volunteer to take children for play dates, do the laundry, help clean the house. People come to visit, to talk, to listen. However, when a child suddenly requires hospitalization for a mental illness there are no casseroles. No phone calls or visits from non-judgmental friends. No offers to take care of the other kids when you’re running from work to hospital. There was a time when cancer was stigmatized. People were ashamed to admit they had it. It was assumed to be a death sentence and rather than say the wrong thing, nothing was said. That has thankfully changed. But this is where we as a society are when dealing with mental illness. The stigma is very real and many families find it necessary to keep their loved one’s illness a secret. From other family members, from employers. Because mental illness impacts behavior and personality, there is a tendency to see it as more of a character flaw than an actual disease. However, it is a disease. One that requires treatment and support. Family and friends can play a vital role in helping their loved ones. And this is where NAMI comes in.
NAMI Orange. Making a difference
I was introduced to NAMI Orange by a friend whose child was also struggling with a mental health diagnosis. We both signed up to take the Family-to–Family class, a “peer education program for family members of adults living with mental illness.” Andrea was in the recovery stage of her illness at that time. I felt that I didn’t really need the course, but maybe I could pick up a few helpful tips. Instead, what I experienced was life changing.
Our class was made up of people with a common goal; how to better understand and help our loved ones. NAMI gave us the tools to better understand the science behind mental illness. We learned about symptoms, changes to behavior and personality, communication skills, crisis preparation plans and so much more. In addition, we became our own support group, sharing our stories and the challenges we were facing. We understood what everyone was going through.
NAMI Orange is an all-volunteer organization. Family-to-Family teachers, as peers, must also have an adult family member living with a mental illness. Course teachers go through specialized training, as do facilitators of support groups and presenters of in-school programs. The dedication of these volunteers cannot be overstated.
Team Up For Hope – Teaming up with NAMI Orange
As a local business, the Green Team believes in giving back to the community. Through Light up the Holidays, money was raised for the Warwick Valley Humane Society and Warwick Playground Dreams. After a few years of doing holiday lights contests, it was decided to change to a basic fund-raising effort on behalf of local organizations. The name suggested was Team Up for Hope. At an early fundraiser committee meeting I mentioned the local NAMI affiliates for our Warwick NY and Vernon NJ offices The response from fellow committee members was amazing. It seems that many of the Green Team’s sales associates knew someone who had experienced mental illness and were up for the challenge. And those who did not have personal experience were touched by the stories we shared and wanted to help. We arranged a meeting with representatives of NAMI Orange and NAMI Sussex. The information they shared with us, their passion for these organizations they gave so much of their lives to, made a lasting impression on us. We were determined to Team Up with NAMI to raise not only funds, but awareness. That included the webinar mentioned in the award, which you can view here. In addition, another webinar was done with Andrea Wynn telling her story of living with mental illness and her journey to recovery. Andrea concluded her story by performing an original song she had written about living with Bi-Polar Disorder. Sheila Sutton represented NAMI Orange again and spoke to Andrea’s story, as well as the help that the organization offers. And Geoff was pleased to announce that Team Up for Hope had raised over $3,100 for NAMI Orange and over $1,500 for NAMI Sussex. To view that webinar, click here.
Andrea is a believer in sharing her journey with others in hopes of helping end the stigma surrounding mental illness. And I share her story with her permission. Further, we both share our thanks to Geoff Green. He first met Andrea during the webinar. However, knowing her diagnosis, he never hesitated to interview her for a position at the Green Team. She is now Agent Service Manager at the Warwick Office.
Team Up for Hope, Inc., a non-profit – and a lasting legacy for Joseph Green IV
Plans had been underway to do another fundraiser for NAMI Orange and Sussex for October 2019. However, on June 27, 2019, Joseph Green IV lost his personal battle with substance abuse. He was 26 years old. His passing was sudden and tragic, leaving his family reeling. Joseph was a very good student-athlete in high school. He graduated from NC State University and was working in the field of finance in Manhattan. In the months that followed, Geoff Green and sister Amy Green realized they had to do something to honor their beloved nephew and found their calling. They wanted to do whatever they could to prevent other families from suffering the loss of a loved one due to substance abuse or mental illness. They called a meeting of Green Teamer’s who would be willing to donate their time to this new organization. A start-up committee and a plan emerged.
Geoff had been inspired by a speaker at a Break the Stigma walk held in Warwick, to raise awareness about the opioid epidemic. That speaker basically said that the only way to address the crisis was on the local level. And that is something Geoff firmly believes; that we should support the efforts of local organizations who have been doing the work, who understand the issues, and are trying to find solutions. It was decided that Team Up for Hope would be incorporated and file for 501(c)(3) not-for-profit status. As such, we would be able to raise funds and then distribute them to organizations we chose to support. In addition to continuing to raise funds and awareness on behalf of the organizations we would be working with, we would do our best to offer solutions to some of the problems they had. For instance, reaching the local communities with the services and programs they offer, finding volunteers with social media skills to help with website development, and FaceBook and Instagram accounts. To help them do what they do best, we would do what we do best: marketing, networking, and helping inform our communities.
We hope that one day these problems will no longer exist, but until that day is here, we’ll do this for Joseph, and for all our loved ones who have struggled with addiction and/or mental illnesses. And we hope that you will team up with us… for hope.
Green Team Realty Receives NAMI Orange Appreciation Award
Green Team Realty receives NAMI Orange Appreciation Award
Geoff Green proudly accepted NAMI Orange‘s Appreciation Award on behalf of Green Team Realty at their 15th Annual Meeting. The meeting was held on November 25 at the Orange County Department of Mental Health in Goshen, NY.. Dhanu Sannesy, President of NAMI Orange is pictured here with Geoff Green and Susan Wynn. She spoke passionately about the work being done. And inspired us all with the work yet to do.
Presenting the Award
Green Team raised both awareness and funds for NAMI Orange through its Team Up for Hope initiative. I am a member of NAMI Orange. But I am also the Green Team’s Content Marketing Manager and part of Team Up for Hope. Therefore, I was asked to present the Appreciation Award to Geoff Green. And it was an honor to read the following inscription to him and all those attending.
NAMI Orange Appreciation Award presented to Green Team Realty – a real estate company that cares what happens in its community, represented by Geoff Green.
Besides their Team Up for Hope’s very successful fundraiser which benefited NAMI Orange, Green Team Realty also organized a webinar to increase public awareness featuring two NAMI Orange members who discussed how mental health issues impact the family as well as the individual – and who educated people as to how they could get the support and the services that they might need. An excellent public service! We are honored to have had Team Up for Hope select NAMI Orange as a recipient of their charitable good works.
What is NAMI?
The National Alliance on Mental Illness, “NAMI,” began at a kitchen table in 1979. A small group of families whose lives had been impacted by mental illness got together. And they decided to take some action. Now, 40 years later, it is the largest grassroots mental health organization in the United States. There are 48 NAMI State Organizations and more than 600 local affiliates.
According to NAMI’s website, the organization “envisions a world where all people affected by mental illness live healthy, fulfilling lives supported by a community that cares.” Their mission is to provide “advocacy, education, support and public awareness so that all individuals and families affected by mental illness can build better lives.”
Mental illness. Let’s talk statistics
These statistics are posted on the NAMI website And they’re frightening.
1 in 5 U.S. adults experience mental illness each year
1 in 25 U.S. adults experience serious mental illness each year
1 in 6 U.S. youth aged 6-17 experience a mental health disorder each year
50% of all lifetime mental illness begins by age 14, and 75% by age 24
Suicide is the 2nd leading cause of death among people aged 10-34
Mental illness. Let’s talk reality
Imagine someone you know and care about becomes one of these statistics. Family members and friends suddenly find themselves in a world turned upside down. They don’t understand what has happened to their loved one. Furthermore, they don’t what to do or say to help that person. And the stigma surrounding mental illness can make it difficult to discuss the challenges with friends and family. As a result this further isolates both patient and family.
My family has lived this reality. My youngest daughter, Andrea, was diagnosed with bipolar and anxiety disorders at the age of 14. There was nothing that prepared us for the journey we suddenly found ourselves on. No guidebook to explain the mania, then the plunges into deep despair. There were prescriptions for lots of medications in lots of combinations. In addition there was therapy. However, there was nothing that helped us all to understand what was happening within her brain. No advice on how to communicate or set limits. No one telling me it wasn’t my fault. Chaos ruled our lives, exacerbated by loneliness.
NAMI Orange. Making a difference
I was introduced to NAMI Orange by a friend whose child was also struggling with a mental health diagnosis. We both signed up to take NAMI’s Family-to-Family class. This is a “peer education program for family members of adults living with mental illness.” Andrea was in the recovery stage of her illness at that time. I didn’t really need the course, I thought. But maybe I could pick up a few helpful tips. Instead, what I experienced was life changing.
People with a common goal made up our class. We wanted to learn how to better understand and help our loved ones. NAMI gave us the tools to better understand the science behind mental illness. Further, we learned about symptoms and changes to behavior and personality. In addition, we were taught communication skills, crisis preparation plans and so much more. Finally, we became our own support group. We shared our stories and the challenges we were facing. Most importantly we understood what everyone was going through.
NAMI Orange is an all-volunteer organization. Family-to-Family teachers are peers who also have an adult family member living with a mental illness. Furthermore, they go through specialized training. So do facilitators of support groups and presenters of in-school programs. The dedication of these volunteers cannot be overstated.
Team Up For Hope – Teaming up with NAMI Orange
The Green Team believes in giving back to the community. Money was raised through Light up the Holidays for the Warwick Valley Humane Society and Warwick Playground Dreams. After a few years of doing holiday lights contests, it was decided to change to a basic fund-raising effort. The name suggested was Team Up for Hope. And we decided we would team up with NAMI Orange and NAMI Sussex.
As a result, we arranged a meeting with representatives of these organizations. The information they shared with us and their passion for NAMI made a lasting impression on us. Together we were determined to raise not only funds, but awareness. That included the webinar mentioned in the award, which you can view here.
In addition, Andrea told her story of living with mental illness and her journey to recovery in a second webinar. Andrea concluded her story by performing an original song she had written about living with Bi-Polar Disorder. Sheila Sutton represented NAMI Orange again. She spoke to Andrea’s story. And Sheila also relayed the help that NAMI offers. Moreover, Geoff announced that Team Up for Hope had raised over $3,100 for NAMI Orange and over $1,500 for NAMI Sussex. To view that webinar, click here.
Andrea is a believer in sharing her journey with others in hopes of helping end the stigma surrounding mental illness. And I share her story with her permission. Further, we both share our thanks to Geoff Green. He first met Andrea during the webinar. However, knowing her diagnosis, he never hesitated to interview her for a position at the Green Team. She is now Agent Service Manager at the Warwick Office. Above all, Green Team shows that we are always Teaming Up for Hope!
Remembering Denise Schmidt
Remembering Denise Schmidt with love
We often refer to Green Team Realty as a family. And the sudden, tragic passing of Denise Schmidt has left the Green Team family reeling in shock and disbelief. Yet in grief there is also a coming together. And a desire to support Denise’s children and siblings, as well as each other at this sad time.
Denise was one of the first sales associates to join what was then Green Team Home Selling System. And for the past 12 years, Denise has been a bus driver for the Warwick Valley Central School District. She was a friend as well as a business associate. And she was a vibrant member of the community. Denise’s story is about a life well-lived and the impact she had and continues to have on those around her, inspiring heroism, friendship, caring and love.
The Warwick Varsity Tennis Team – Heroism in Action
Much has been written in local media about Denise, and about the Warwick Varsity Tennis Team. Denise was the regular driver for the girls’ away matches. They were heading home after an away game when Denise suffered a medical emergency, slumping over the steering wheel. The bus veered off the I-84 on ramp at Exit 28, down into a grassy ravine, and hit a tree. On that bus were 22 students and their coach. Thankfully, the students and coach were not injured. To many, it seemed that Denise was taking care of her team, making sure they’d be safe, even as she was herself in crisis. And her team took care of her. The coach and one of the students, who is studying nursing at BOCES, went into action. They provided CPR until the paramedics arrived. And despite the frightening experience, the girls remained focused on Denise and her condition.
While waiting for updates on Denise’s condition, the team began making plans. They dedicated their next home game to honor Denise. Sadly, when she passed away the game became a memorial tribute. Team members wore green ribbons to remember Denise and to show support of her work at the Green Team. The girls then created a memorial homecoming parade float. And they began selling green wrist bands to help raise money to Denise’s family. As in most small towns, communities rise up to face challenges together. This group of young women has shown grace, courage and commitment to a woman who was dedicated to them.
Green Team Realty – A Call to Action
There is another truth about small towns. News makes its way quickly throughout the community. Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, and Lucyann Tinnirello, Broker Manager at Green Team New York Realty began receiving texts about the accident. Immediately they made their way to Orange Regional Medical Center to be with Denise’s family. She was then transferred to Westchester Medical Center. Geoff began sending updates and prayer requests to everyone at Green Team. And a fundraising effort was undertaken to raise money for Denise’s children.
The Visitation and Memorial Service
The Memorial Visitation was held on Friday the 13th at Lazear-Smith & Vander Plaat Memorial Home in Warwick. Dennin, Donald, Derek and Dana graciously greeted those who came to pay tribute to their mother. And come they did. Denise touched many lives.
Her friends and co-workers from the Green Team gathered to gain comfort from each other, and to share memories of this remarkable woman. Amidst the tears there were smiles and there was laughter. Knowing that a tribute would be written for Denise, the question went around. What one word would you use to describe her? And the descriptions poured out. Kind. Caring. Amazing. Spitfire. Vivacious. Real. Ballsy. Determined. Humble. Feisty. Supermom.
Geoff Green stepped in to arrange for the location for Denise’s memorial service. On Saturday, September 14, family and friends gathered together at Spring Brook Farm to celebrate the life of this extraordinary woman.
The Green Team Remembers Denise
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty:
Denise Schmidt was the kind of Realtor who would never consider the paycheck, but would simply focus on who needed help. There are a countless number of people in our marketplace who were in tricky Real Estate situations. And Denise would turn those situations into positive outcomes. Her determination was remarkable.
But it didn’t end there. The determination with her children was even more impressive. Denise did whatever needed to be done to provide a good environment for her four children. She left the four kids in great shape. They are all successful in their own right, but most importantly they are kind and caring individuals who will inevitably go out of their way to help others.
As a friend Denise was a “barrel of laughs”. Inevitably, after every Green Team social event, my wife and I would be convinced by Denise to continue the festivities. The laughs never stopped. Denise was a bus driver with a trucker’s mouth! One of her endearing traits was her ability to tell it the way it was. I always appreciated that from her. I could always count on her direct nature to give me feedback on things.
In the end, she worked until she died, and I don’t think she would have had it any other way. She always felt better when she was working to help someone and she did just that right until the end. She will be sorely missed by us all.
Donna Roberts, Agent Service Manager & Property Manager at Green Team New York Realty:
She was this quiet angel. If you mentioned something to her, like you were having a tough time or needed something, she’d do everything she could to help you. I stayed after work one day to help her with a listing. Then, when I came home the next day, there was a bottle of wine and a thank you note that Denise had left on my front porch. And last year some of us had been talking about how nice it would be to have a small fridge in the office for our lunches. So, the next day she brought in a fridge for us. These are the kind of things that Denise would do for people. No fanfare, no accolades. She just reached out in kindness. I will miss that about her, along with her “tell it like it is” view on the world.
Karen Gauvin, Licensed Agent & Realtor, Green Team New York Realty:
As a friend of Denise long before becoming a business associate, and as a mom of one of the team members on the bus that night, there is so much to share. Parents of girls on the team were notified that there had been a bus accident. We were told the kids were being checked at the scene and we could pick them up at the State Police barracks in Montgomery. Denise had been driving, so I knew the team was in good hands. We didn’t know much else at the time.
I was fortunate to have the help of another friend and co-worker, Tammy Scotto. Tammy drove me to pick up my daughter; I was too anxious to go on my own. We passed the site of the accident and just hugged each of the girls as they were released from the State Police to their families. It was truly frightening.
Learning what happened
We learned more details. Hailey told us what a happy time the team had with Denise prior to the crash. And, as their regular bus driver for their away games for the past several years, the girls knew her well. Hailey also spent a few minutes alone on the bus with Denise. She told me what a great mood Denise had been in, happy and chatty. I also learned how amazing the girls had been after such a terrifying event. Despite having gone through such a difficult and harrowing experience, the girls were strong, caring more about Denise’s condition than what they had been through.
After learning that Denise had passed, the team wanted to pay tribute to her. The girls dedicated their September 9 game to Denise’s memory. And while they did win, the lessons learned from sudden and tragic loss were what really mattered. Appreciating what is truly important, cherishing memories, being kind. They also dedicated their homecoming parade float to Denise and have been raising money for her family to help with expenses. And they will continue to hold Denise’s memory in their hearts. I’ll be sharing information on future events as they are planned, so we can support our team in their efforts to remember Denise. Together we will keep her legacy alive. And we can all remind ourselves what really matters.
Lucyann Tinnirello, Broker Manager, Green Team New York Realty:
Denise was a special person, and that carried through to her professionalism. She was always willing to help, and to share her knowledge. She served as a mentor to several of the newer agents, teaching them what she knew. Denise was an incredibly hard working single mom, and there lies her greatest accomplishment. Four incredible children who share their mom’s kindness and capacity for sharing.
Jennifer DiCostanzo, NYS Licensed Real Estate Associate Broker, Green Team New York Realty:
Looking through my photos I came across these and was filled with lovely memories. I had to smile, remembering years of wrapping Holiday Baskets for the food pantry with Denise and our group of volunteers. Each year we waited for her to arrive after her morning school bus run. And each year we nominated her as our official Green Team Basket Wrapper. I know when it’s time to wrap our Thanksgiving and Christmas baskets we’ll be remembering Denise with love and laughter. And be grateful that we had this wonderful person in our lives.
Lucyann Tinnirello, Jennifer DiCostanzo, Linda Vandeweert, Denise Schmidt and Donna Roberts
Denise Schmidt
Please share your memories of Denise
Denise Schmidt made an impact on so many lives. We hope that your memories will become part of this memorial. She will always be a part of the Green Team family, always loved, never forgotten.
Green Team Realty 2019 Summer Social
Green Team Realty 2019 Summer Social … A Family Gathering
It’s a familiar scene. As summer ends, families gather to enjoy one more fun day in the sun. And the Green Team is no different. Children race around the grounds, laughing and playing. Adults gather at picnic tables, enjoying the food, beautiful weather, and the company. The Sales Associates of Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty work hard all year. However, the Summer Social is a day to unwind and introduce their families to their Green Team Family. Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, understands the importance of having days like this. Events where everyone can kick back, talk shop or talk family. And just relax and be together!
Thanks to our sponsors, and to all the Green Team’ers who brought Pot Luck dishes! The food was fantastic. Further, the weather could not have been more perfect. Finally, we could not have asked for a more wonderful setting than Spring Brook Farm.
Spring Brook Farm
This beautiful family farm is owned by Marie Pennings. Spring Brook Farm is a wedding and special event destination. But it was also the perfect venue for the Green Team Summer Social! Besides the acres of land, perfect for games and just running around, many also took advantage of the swimming pool. Of course there was lots of room for tables and food stations. And the lovingly restored barn provided a look back at the history of this special place. Finally, there were the absolutely gorgeous views.
Thank you to all our wonderful sponsors!
The sponsors for our Summer Social helped make this a day to remember! We appreciate their contributions to what was an incredible event. Thanks to:
Party Heroes
Amy Green, Vice President of Mortgage Lending, Guaranteed Rate
amy.green@rate.com, www.rate.com/amygreen
(O) 973-939-8688 (C) 845-545-4315 (F) 312-462-1135
Beer
David Willner, Franchise Owner/Licensed Inspector, Pillar to Post Home Inspections
dave.willner@pillartopost.com, pillartopost.com/davidwillner
Beverages & Sangria
Laura Moritz, Director of Sales, Northeast Region, Classic Mortgage
(C) 845-222-8270
Ice Cream
Bob and Alison Miller, Road Trip Mobile RV Service
facebook.com/roadtriprvservice
973-903-0104
Picnic Accessories
Donohue, O’Connell & Riley PLLC, Estate, Tax & Elder Law Attorneys
844-50-TRUST
and last, but not least…
Askin & Hooker, LLC, Attorneys at Law, Residential and Commercial Real Estate, New York and New Jersey
973-729-7711
Family Snapshots
Of course, what would a family get-together be without photos to remember the day by.
February 2019 Housing Market Update
Green Team Realty’s February 2019 Housing Market Update went live on Facebook February 12 at 2 p.m. If you were unable to view the webinar live, you can watch it at your convenience by clicking here. Sign up for future updates here.
Meet this month’s panelists…
Moderating the Market Update is Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty. In addition, Geoff presents national statistics as well as local updates for Orange County, NY and Sussex County, NJ. This month he is joined by Jennifer DiCostanzo of Green Team New York Realty, Michael Giannetto of Residential Home Funding, and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty.
The National Perspective
According to Geoff, this time last year no one was really talking about a slowdown in the housing market. The conversation was more about how fast and how far everything would go. A few months later some chinks in the armor appeared. And now we’re looking at national numbers, comparing 2018 to 2017, Sept – Dec, all below the year over year numbers from 2017. The year over year drop by each region, 10.3% overall, 6.8 in the northeast, 15% in the west, etc., is also of interest.
A quote by Mike Fratantoni, chief economist for the MBA, is relevant: “The spring home buying season is almost upon us, and if rates stay lower, inventory continues to grow, and the job market maintains its strength, we do expect to see a solid spring market.” In Geoff’s experience, this just seems to be a very slow moving market pace; unlike the fast paced ups and downs of the stock market. From the perspective of number of units sold, we’re clearly trending down. It seems that every region in the U.S. is on that same path.
Over the last 12 months, housing supply was in the red, meaning there was a lack of it. In June there was a turnaround, with more supply. Some people are saying that transactions are going to catch up again, with more supply becoming available. However, Geoff is not entirely sure that is going to happen at this time. While he does believe there will be a strong market in 2019, the real debate is what is going to happen in 2020, 2021, 2022.
There was a period of time when rates were climbing, but now they are almost 1/2 a point lower than they were in October, November. The Fed is pledging to be patient with raising short term rates, as they’re seeing indicators of a potential recession on the horizon. They’re slowing down anticipated rate hikes which had been slated at the end of last year.
The Local Perspective – Orange and Sussex Counties
Units Sold
There is a lot to glean from the local stats, even as they play out on the national stage. In January, while the same as in 2018, it’s still higher than the previous four years. This is a good indicator.
In Sussex County, we’re just above 2016, but below 2017 and 2018, for the month of January.
Days on Market
This stat is an indicator of how fast things are moving. In Orange County, January 2019 is the lowest it’s been for this month in five years.
In Sussex County, the number of days on the market is tied for the lowest it’s been in five years.
Average Sales Price
As Geoff has mentioned in the monthly housing market updates, price lags activity. Price appreciation should be seen throughout the first half of 2019, but he believes in the second half of the year, prices will start to come down.
The highest peak was in 2018. January 2019 has the highest price for that month in the last five years. In general, higher prices should bring out more sellers, which should create more inventory and allow more units to sell.
Asking to Sold Ratio
This is the ratio of the last asking price versus where are homes selling. This shows on average how much sellers are having to negotiate off the price of their property. This is the highest ratio for this month since 2014.
This number is strong in Sussex County as well as in Orange. The numbers are still showing a strong market.
And thanks to our Sponsor…
The Housing Market Update is sponsored by REALLY – a better, smarter, faster real estate referral network for Agents. Learn more at ReallyHQ.com.
Panel Discussion:
Geoff introduced Jennifer DiCostanzo of Green Team New York Realty, the top producer in the company. According to Jen, supply and demand are a real challenge. On the Orange County side, sellers are afraid to list because they have nowhere to go if they’re shopping in the same market. If sellers are relocating, it’s easier for them to let go as they don’t have the same issues and can secure housing. She is welcoming this market because she finds buyers to be more educated and sellers more realistic. Jen is hoping to see the market open up.
Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey is a regular panelist on the Housing Market Update. Her thoughts on the January sales numbers were that the totals were a reflection of inventory not being available. Sales were higher last year as there was more inventory to sell. It still is a seller’s market due to lack of inventory. And there are several sellers on the fence, waiting to see what will happen in the near future. There is hope that these sellers will soon be listing.
According to Geoff, the lack of inventory is a real problem. Nationally and locally, seeing the numbers going down, it seems like less people are buying homes. There has been a lot of frustration for some trying to buy a home, and some may have rented when they couldn’t find anything. Some may now be locked into leases.
What will the market look like over the next few years?
Geoff asked Jen what she thinks the market will look like in 2020, 2021,2022 as far as pricing, activity… She feels that we’re at a more stable point now; that it will not be quite as erratic. After the last downturn, when prices finally started going up in 2016, 2017, it was a very poignant time. If you bought at the height of the market, you could actually sell and recoup equity. That is the silver lining in helping sellers make that decision when they need to sell. And now is that time. If job growth is good and stable and interest rates make home buying and financing affordable, the market should stay at a steady pace. Real estate is fueled by circumstance, regardless of the market. People will always need to buy and sell. If we can give leverage to the market by educating our buyers and sellers and strategically strategizing, you put them ahead of the game.
Geoff asked if Jen had been referring to those buying homes in 2006, 2007 and 2008 when she talked about recouping equity. Jen replied that basically, it would go short. Jen purchased her own home in 2007, and almost immediately she would have been unable to sell her home for what she bought it for. Where we are now is a good time to step back and walk away with equity. Whether you’ve been in your house for 10 years or 50 years, you’re going to recoup on your investment. Geoff recalled the downturn. There was a huge loss, almost 50% of the number of transactions from 2006 to 2008 disappeared, and it was a very difficult time. He found Jen’s point valid; that people should finally be able to move on and move into something else should they want to.
Geoff then asked for Keren’s 2-3 year view. She hopes that we remain in a strong market. With rates coming down, she sees more people who had been renting once again looking to buy. However, the issue remains inventory. Keren sees growth in the area, with people moving to Sussex from other counties in New Jersey and some from New York, attracted to lower taxes, etc. Buyers are more educated, but so are the sellers. Therefore you see homes that are priced correctly. She believes the market will remain good for at least a couple of years.
Mortgage trends
Mike Giannetto of Residential Home Funding was asked if he sees the trend of lowering interest rates continuing. Mike replied he hopes so. There has been a decrease in interest rates. There is a global slow down. The economies in China and Europe are getting weaker. We’ve had a downturn in our rates because we are the safest investment at this point. This definitely had an affect on mortgage backed securities and hopefully the stronger US market will continue.
Geoff recapped. The more risky other assets are, the more money wants to seek a haven in bonds, which drives down the rate that people need to give to attract people to buy those bonds, which ultimately lowers interest rates on mortgages. Instability and uncertainty around the globe actually can be good for mortgage rates to come down.
We know a recession will be coming; just don’t know when. Those that went through the last downturn in the housing market are waiting “for the other shoe to drop.” As long as there is no global meltdown economically, we should be okay. The market is pretty healthy. Geoff has heard of some subprime lending happening; he asked Mike if he’s seen it occurring at levels similar to 2005-2007. Mike replied that there are safeguards in place, even as some new products are being introduced. Some of the products are necessary in order for some people, such as self-employed, to purchase a home. The money behind these products is portfolio money or hedge fund money, which is why the loans are scrutinized. The banks are lending their own money, so are therefore quite careful.
To reach the panelists:
Michael Giannetto, Residential Home Funding: 845-496-0836, rhfunding.com/michaelgiannetto
Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty: 917-916-9995
Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty: 551-262-4062
The next Housing Market Update will be held on Tuesday, March 19 at 2 pm. Stay informed and sign up for updates at GreenTeamHQ.com/HMU.
