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Housing Market Update December 2020
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the December 2020 Housing Market Update. This webinar, held on Tuesday, December 15, at 2 p.m., examined the housing market on both national and local levels.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it is available here.
Meet the Panel
Panelists included Keren Gonen and Pam Zachowski of Green Team New Jersey Realty, Toni Kreusch, and Karen Gauvin of Green Team New York Realty. Michael Giannetto of CrossCountry Mortgage LLC joined them.
2020 – The Year in Review
What a year it has been! The real estate industry has had a strong year. The housing market has experienced a “V-shaped” recovery. Furthermore, according to Realtor.com, it continues to ascend based on demand, supply, price, and time on market.
There are no signs of an impending foreclosure increase. In fact, the number of mortgages in forbearance is decreasing.
Are prices going up too fast?
Geoff Green addresses this question, using actual and historic appreciation factors. However, it all comes back to supply and demand, as shown below. The less inventory you have, the more demand and prices go up.
Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR, explained why there is no comparison between today’s market and the frenzy of activity seen in 2006, which led to the recession. You can view his full quote in the December 2020 HMU video. Also, the good news is mortgage affordability based on household debt service as a percentage of disposable personal income. Furthermore, mortgage rates are projected to remain low in 2021, and home prices continue to increase.
The new Winter 2021 Buyer and Seller Guides are now available on the Green Team Realty website.
Click here and scroll halfway down the screen to request your guide.
Housing Market Stats – Nationwide and Local
Existing home sales have risen, and home prices continue to soar. Of course, inventory continues to plummet. Locally, average prices have soared. The panelists discussed the impact of current market conditions on both buyers and sellers, and what they are seeing in their businesses. You can see the panel discussion here.
“Housekeeping” Items
Contact our Panelists
We’ll see you on Tuesday, January 29, 2021, at 12 p.m.
Click here to register.
November 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the November 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar, held on Tuesday, November 17 at 2 p.m. examined the housing market on both national and local levels.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:
Meet the Panel:
Panelists included Keren Gonen and Barbara Tesa, of Green Team New Jersey Realty and Carol Buchanan, with Green Team New York Realty. Also joining the discussion were Ken Ford of Warwick Valley Financial Advisors, and Laura Moritz with Classic Mortgage LLC.
First, let’s talk about the economy
In January, the economy was strong, there were no signs of the housing market slowing down. It took a major global event to slow down a roaring economy.
So, what did people do with stimulus checks?
35% used it to pay down debts. 36% saved the money, and 29% spent the money. U.S. Consumer spending since January 1, 2020, is down by -3.7%. Changes in consumer spending by state is shown below:
Unemployment filings and benefits
Weekly unemployment filings have been steadily coming down. However, unemployment does remain at a high number. The number of people receiving unemployment benefits is also trending downwards.
Mortgage Forbearance, Home Inventory, Home Appreciation, and Mortgage Rates
The number of mortgages in active forbearance is decreasing dramatically. As of Oct 20, out of 2,397,000 families granted forbearance, some have extended it, However, 44% came out of the program while paying on time. In addition, 500,000 people paid off their mortgage.
Moreover, stats show the decrease in inventory over the last 12 months. According to Zillow, the top reasons for people not putting their homes on the market now are financial uncertainty, uncertainty about life in general, and COVID-19 health concerns.
Most experts are bullish on home price appreciation. However, Mortgage Bankers’ Association is predicting rising mortgage rates over the next 3 years.
Learn more. Watch the Webinar.
For updates on what is happening in commercial real estate, the crisis facing renters at the end of moratoriums, and national and local market stats, click here.to watch the webinar. You’ll also be hearing from the sales associates, and financial and mortgage experts on what they are seeing in the market.
Furthermore, you can compare this month’s stats with those in the October Housing Market Update.
“Housekeeping” Items
Contact our Panelists
Join us for the last Housing Market Update of 2020 on Tuesday, December 15 at 2 p.m.
Sign up for updates now at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU
October 2020 Housing Market Update
Geoff Geen, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the October 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar, held on Tuesday, October 20 at 2 p.m. examined the housing market on both national and local levels.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here.
Meet the Panel
October Housing Market Update panelists were Nancy Sardo, and Tammy Scotto of Green Team New York Realty, and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty. Also joining the discussion was Ken Aulicino, Mortgage Loan Originator at Family First Funding.
Can the housing market recovery be sustained?
The U.S housing market has been a “V-shaped” Recovery. However, inventory continues to decline and is a big challenge. So, can the housing market keep it up?
Pros
US Consumer Spending is almost in a V-shaped recovery. Unemployment has been coming down the last 6 to 7 months. The number of mortgages in active forbearance is decreasing. Prior to the Great Recession, it was a buyers market, due to the number of homes on the market. In the early 2000s, there was also a lot of new construction happening. Now, we are firmly in a sellers’ market. There are just not enough homes to satisfy the needs of the current market.
Cons
The shortage of inventory remains a major issue. According to Realtor.com,
“Since the beginning of the COVID pandemic in March, nearly 400,000 few homes have been listed compared to last year, leaving a gaping hole in the U.S. housing inventory…
As a result, home prices are accelerating at double last year’s pace.”
According to the National Association of Realtors, Existing Home Sales are up by 10.5%. However, listings are down 39%. Listings for New Homes are down by 31%. However, sales of new homes have increased by 43%.
This really shows the inventory story.
Local Stats
In Orange County, NY, there are increases in units sold and in average sales price. Sussex County, NJ is now showing strong increases in average sales price, as well as in units sold.
Learn More, Watch the Webinar
Watch Geoff’s full presentation on national and local economic and real estate trends. In addition, our expert panel discusses their experiences in this market, including new construction. Click here to view the webinar.
Furthermore, you can compare prior statistics and trends. Click here for the September 2020 Housing Market Update.
“Housekeeping” Items
Contact our Panelists
Join us on Tuesday, November 17 at 2 p.m.
Sign up for updates now at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU
Two Important Impacts of Home Equity
Equity continues to rise, helping American homeowners secure a much more stable financial future. According to the most recent data from CoreLogic, the average homeowner gained $9,800 in equity over the past year. In addition, experts project 2020 home prices to continue rising. With prices going up, equity gains will also keep accelerating. Black Knight just reported:
“The annual percent change in the overall median existing single-family-home price has skyrocketed in the past several months, with recent numbers at three to five times higher than rates seen in the past several years.”
Jeff Tucker, Senior Economist at Zillow, just qualified recent price increases as “jaw-dropping” and “within a hair’s breadth of double-digit year-over-year appreciation.”
Knowing equity will help enable many homeowners to better survive the economic distress caused by the ongoing pandemic, it’s important to break down two key homeowner benefits of increasing equity.
1. Equity Increases a Homeowner’s Options to Buy a New Home
Aside from the financial damage of the last seven months, there has also been a tremendous emotional toll on many people. Shelter-in-place mandates, quarantine requirements, and virtual schooling have all made us re-evaluate the must-have requirements a home should deliver. Having equity in your current house gives you a better opportunity to move-up or build your perfect home from scratch.
Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, recently explained:
“As homeowners gain equity in their homes, they are more likely to consider using that equity to purchase a larger or more attractive home – the wealth effect of rising equity.”
If you need to make a move, the equity in your current home can help make that possible – right now.
2. Equity Enables Homeowners to Help Future Generations
An increase in home equity grows overall wealth, which can transfer to future generations. The Federal Reserve, in an addendum to their recent Survey of Consumer Finances, explains:
“There are numerous ways families can transmit wealth and resources across generations. Families can directly transfer their wealth to the next generation in the form of a bequest. They can also provide the next generation with inter vivos transfers (gifts), for example, providing down payment support to enable a home purchase or a substantial wedding gift.”
The Federal Reserve also explains another way wealth (including the additional net worth generated by an increase in home equity) can benefit future generations:
“In addition to direct transfers or gifts, families can make investments in their children that indirectly increase their wealth. For example, families can invest in their children’s educational success by paying for college or private schools, which can in turn increase their children’s ability to accumulate wealth.”
Bottom Line
Equity can help a homeowner grow their confidence in a more stable financial future. It provides near-term move-up options and creates a positive impact for future generations. In many cases, the largest single investment a person has is their home. As that investment appreciates in value, financial options increase too. Connect with one of our Sales Agents today to talk about your new investment!
3rd Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders
Congratulations from Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, to our 3rd Quarter Sales Leaders
3rd Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders for Green Team Realty have been announced. They are Jennifer DiCostanco for Green Team New York Realty and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty.
“Jennifer and Keren – Two big names in the Orange & Sussex County Real Estate business. It’s not easy to be the third quarter sales leader because it’s the biggest production quarter of the year for Realtors. Those who place the highest in Q3 are usually the annual winners as well. Both Jennifer and Keren are perennial All Stars in this industry and for good reason. They both work extremely hard in and on their businesses, and they both have exceptional reputations with their clients. Congratulations to both ladies and I have to say that I won’t be one bit surprised to see both of them do it again year after year.”
Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty
This is not the first Sales Leader Award for Jennifer DiCostanzo. She has been the Yearly Sales Leader since joining Green Team in 2015. In addition, she was 1st Quarter Sales Leader for 2020. Jen received the MVP Award in 2017 for more than $10 Million in sales. In 2019 she received that award for more than $12 Million in sales. She attributes her success to steadfast dedication to each of her clients. Furthermore, she has a plethora of knowledge and experience which is evident in each transaction and results in creating strategic approaches and facilitating solutions. Jen had this to say about achieving 3rd Quarter Sales Leader:
“Thank you to my clients and colleagues. We adapted to covid protocols and worked together safely during the strongest sales quarter of the year, during pandemic times.”
Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty
This is not Keren Gonen‘s first time as a Sales Leader, either. This is her fourth time as Quarterly Sales Leader. Most recently, she was named Sales Leader for the 2nd Quarter of 2020. And in 2017, the year Keren started at Green Team New Jersey Realty, she was Yearly Sales Leader.
Keren said the following about her latest achievement:
“I was given this opportunity to say a few words about this achievement and although I am grateful for being in this place, at this time, I would like to say the following: I know how scary this time is for all of us. America is in turmoil, due to Corona, The Elections, The Economy, Our rights and Freedom and so much more. It is this uncertainty, now more than ever, that reminds us that our safe haven is our HOME. This is the reason for the spike in sales in Real Estate. We all want to feel SAFE. It is now, more than ever, that we look inside our homes and our hearts and decide what is important and what is not. It is now that we must all come together, not fall farther apart. To those who have chosen me as the one to accompany them on this journey, I am grateful. I hope that I have made, at least in part, your need to relocate a bit easier, a bit less stressful, and that I contributed some peace in these difficult times. For all of that, I am grateful.”
6 Reasons You’ll Win by Selling with a Real Estate Agent This Fall
There are many benefits to working with a real estate professional when selling your house. During challenging times, like what we face today, it becomes even more important to have an expert you trust to help guide you through the process. If you’re considering selling on your own, known in the industry as a For Sale by Owner (FSBO), it’s critical to consider the following:
1. Your Safety Is a Priority
Your family’s safety should always come first, and that’s more crucial than ever given the current health situation in our country. When you FSBO, it is incredibly difficult to control entry into your home. A real estate professional will have the proper protocols in place to protect not only your belongings but your family’s health and well-being too. From regulating the number of people in your home at one time to ensuring proper sanitization during and after a showing, and even facilitating virtual tours for buyers, real estate professionals are equipped to follow the latest industry standards recommended by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) to help protect you and your family.
2. A Powerful Online Strategy Is a Must to Attract a Buyer
Recent studies from NAR have shown that, even before COVID-19, the first step 44% of all buyers took when looking for a home was to search online. Throughout the process, that number jumps to 93%. Today, those numbers have grown exponentially. Most real estate agents have developed a strong Internet and social media strategy to promote the sale of your house. Have you?
3. There Are Too Many Negotiations
Here are just a few of the people you’ll need to negotiate with if you decide to FSBO:
- The buyer, who wants the best deal possible
- The buyer’s agent, who solely represents the best interest of the buyer
- The inspection companies, which work for the buyer and will almost always find challenges with the house
- The appraiser, if there is a question of value
As part of their training, agents are taught how to negotiate every aspect of the real estate transaction and how to mediate the emotions felt by buyers looking to make what is probably the largest purchase of their lives.
4. You Won’t Know if Your Purchaser Is Qualified for a Mortgage
Having a buyer who wants to purchase your house is the first step. Making sure they can afford to buy it is just as important. As a FSBO, it’s almost impossible to be involved in the mortgage process of your buyer. A real estate professional is trained to ask the appropriate questions and, in most cases, will be intimately aware of the progress being made toward a purchaser’s mortgage commitment.
Further complicating the situation is how the current mortgage market is rapidly evolving because of the number of families out of work and in mortgage forbearance. A loan program that was available yesterday could be gone tomorrow. You need someone who is working with lenders every day to guarantee your buyer makes it to the closing table.
5. FSBOing Has Become More Difficult from a Legal Standpoint
The documentation involved in the selling process has increased dramatically as more and more disclosures and regulations have become mandatory. In an increasingly litigious society, the agent acts as a third-party to help the seller avoid legal jeopardy. This is one of the major reasons why the percentage of people FSBOing has dropped from 19% to 8% over the last 20+ years.
6. You Net More Money When Using an Agent
Many homeowners believe they’ll save the real estate commission by selling on their own. Realize that the main reason buyers look at FSBOs is because they also believe they can save the real estate agent’s commission. The seller and buyer can’t both save on the commission.
A study by Collateral Analytics revealed that FSBOs don’t actually save anything by forgoing the help of an agent. In some cases, the seller may even net less money from the sale. The study found the difference in price between a FSBO and an agent-listed home was an average of 6%. One of the main reasons for the price difference is effective exposure:
“Properties listed with a broker that is a member of the local MLS will be listed online with all other participating broker websites, marketing the home to a much larger buyer population. And those MLS properties generally offer compensation to agents who represent buyers, incentivizing them to show and sell the property and again potentially enlarging the buyer pool.”
The more buyers that view a home, the greater the chance a bidding war will take place.
Bottom Line
Listing on your own leaves you to manage the entire transaction by yourself. Why do that when you can hire an agent and still net the same amount of money? Before you decide to take on the challenge of selling your house alone, let’s connect you with one of our Sales Agents to discuss your options.
Home Builder Confidence Hits All-Time Record
Last week, the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB) reported their Housing Market Index (HMI) hit an all-time high in the 35-year history of the series with a score of 83. The index gauges builder perceptions of current single-family home sales and sale expectations for the next six months, as well as the traffic of prospective buyers of new homes.
As the following chart shows, confidence dropped dramatically when stay-in-place orders were originally mandated earlier this year. Since then, it has soared back.
Looking at the three-month moving averages for HMI scores, confidence increased in every region of the country:
- The Northeast increased 11 points to 76
- The Midwest jumped 9 points to 72
- The South rose 8 points to 79
- The West increased 7 points to 85
Confidence Is Validated by the Numbers
This confidence is definitely warranted. According to a recent NAHB report, single-family housing starts increased 4.1% to a 1.02 million annual rate, and single-family permits increased 6% to a 1.04 million unit rate, meaning newly constructed homes are on the rise.
A separate report from the Mortgage Bankers Association (MBA) shows mortgage applications for new home purchases increased by 33.3% compared to a year ago. Joel Kan, Associate Vice President of Economic and Industry Forecasting at MBA, commented on the numbers:
“The housing market continued to exceed expectations in August, as housing demand for new homes stayed strong and the job market continued to recover…The new home market has maintained its path of recovery throughout the summer, and record-low mortgage rates and households seeking more space will likely continue to drive demand into the fall.”
Bottom Line
If you’re thinking about putting your house on the market but are afraid you may not find a home to buy, connect with on of our Real Estate Agents to discuss new construction opportunities in our area.
Where Are Home Values Headed Over the Next 12 Months?
As shelter-in-place orders were implemented earlier this year, many questioned what the shutdown would mean to the real estate market. Specifically, there was concern about home values. After years of rising home prices, would 2020 be the year this appreciation trend would come to a screeching halt? Even worse, would home values begin to depreciate?
Original forecasts modeled this uncertainty, and they ranged anywhere from home values gaining 3% (Zelman & Associates) to home values depreciating by more than 6% (CoreLogic).
However, as the year unfolded, it became clear that there would be little negative impact on the housing market. As Mark Fleming, Chief Economist at First American, recently revealed:
“The only major industry to display immunity to the economic impacts of the coronavirus is the housing market.”
Have prices continued to appreciate so far this year?
Last week, the Federal Housing Finance Agency (FHFA) released its latest Home Price Index. The report showed home prices actually rose 6.5% from the same time last year. FHFA also noted that price appreciation accelerated to record levels over the summer months:
“Between May & July 2020, national prices increased by over 2%, which represents the largest two-month price increase observed since the start of the index in 1991.”
What are the experts forecasting for home prices going forward?
Below is a graph of home price projections for the next year. Since the market has changed dramatically over the last few months, this graph shows forecasts that have been published since September 1st.
Bottom Line
The numbers show that home values have weathered the storm of the pandemic. Find out what your home is currently worth and how that may enable you to make a move this year.
September 2020 Housing Market Update
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[et_pb_column type=”4_4″][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text”]Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the September 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar, held on Tuesday, September 15 at 2 p.m., examined the housing market on both national and local levels. Discussion included the impact of various economic factors resulting from the COVID-19 pandemic.
If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it is available here.
Meet the Panel
September Housing Market Update panelists were Kristi Anderson and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty. They shared their knowledge and expertise in the Vernon and Sussex County, New Jersey markets. Carol Buchanan, Green Team New York Realty, shared her experiences with the Warwick, Orange County, New York markets. In addition, our guest panelist was Michael Giannetto of Cross Country Mortgage. Michael shared his expertise on the
First, here are some stats on the national and local markets, presented by Geoff.
We’re Up, Up, and Away
July marked ten straight months of year-over-year gains in price. In addition, we have first time ever, national median home prices breaching the $300,000 level. With the easing of lock-down regulations, showing traffic is now way up, year over year. Mortgage applications, year-over-year, are also popping. Realtor.com’s chief economist says that inventory is down 38%.
Demand is way up, supply is way down
Builder confidence is also growing. It tied its highest reading in NAHB/Wells Fargo Housing Market index’s 35-year history. However, lumber prices have more than doubled since mid-April. The pricing of lumber should come back down, based on supply issues as opposed to supply and demand.
Housing affordability
The housing market is about affordability as opposed to just pricing. While prices continue to go up, mortgage rates have been going down. Thus, lower mortgage rates make buying a home more affordable.
Learn more, watch the webinar
Watch Geoff’s full presentation on national and local economic and real estate trends. In addition, hear our expert panel discuss their experiences in this market. Click here to view the webinar.
Furthermore, compare prior stats. Click here for the July 2020 Housing Market Update.
“Housekeeping” Items
Contact our Panelists
Join us on Tuesday, October 20 at 2 p.m.
Sign up for updates now at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU
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Homebuyer Demand Is Far Above Last Year’s Pace
Homebuying has been on the rise over the past few months, with record-breaking sales powering through the market in June and July. Buyers are actively purchasing homes, and the momentum is continuing into the fall. It is, however, becoming harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. If you’ve been thinking about selling your house, the coming weeks might just be the timing you’ve been waiting for.
According to the Pending Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):
“Pending home sales in July achieved another month of positive contract activity, marking three consecutive months of growth.
The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 5.9% to 122.1 in July. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 15.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.”
This means that for the past several months, buyers have signed an increasing number of contracts to purchase homes – well above where the market was at this time last year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR notes:
“We are witnessing a true V-shaped sales recovery as homebuyers continue their strong return to the housing market…Home sellers are seeing their homes go under contract in record time, with nine new contracts for every 10 new listings.”
Below is a graph that shows the impressive recovery of homes sales compared to previous years. The deep blue v marks the slowdown from this spring that turned into an exponential jump in sales that followed through the summer, skyrocketing above years past:
What Does This Mean for Sellers?
If you were thinking about putting your house on the market in the spring, but decided to wait due to the health crisis, it may be time to make your move. Buyers are in the market right now. With so few homes available to purchase, homeowners today are experiencing more bidding wars, creating an optimal time to sell.
Is This Trend Going to Continue?
As CNBC notes, there are no signs of slowing buyer demand this fall:
“The usual summer slowdown in the housing market is not happening this year. Buyers continue to show strong demand, spurred by the new stay-at-home world of the coronavirus and by record low mortgage rates.”
Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, concurred:
“In a typical year in the housing market, buyer interest begins to wane before seller interest causing the usual seasonal slowdown as we move into the fall. Due to a delayed spring season and low mortgage rates, we could see buyer interest extend longer than usual into the typically quieter fall. Whether this means more home sales will depend on whether sellers participate or decide to stay on the sidelines.”
As Hale mentioned, homeowners who are willing to sell their houses right now will play a big role in whether the trend continues. The market needs more homes to satisfy ongoing buyer demand. Maybe it’s time to leverage your equity and move up while eager home shoppers are ready to purchase a house just like yours.
Bottom Line
If your current home doesn’t meet your family’s changing needs, connect with one of our Sales Agents to help you sell your house and make the move you’ve been waiting for all year.
