Housing Market News July 29, 2020

July 2020 Housing Market Update

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the July 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar, which was held on Tuesday, July 24 at 2 p.m., examined the housing market on national and local levels, in light of the impact of various economic factors resulting from the Covid-19 pandemic.

If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it is available here.

Meet the panel

Following a review of the national and local stats, Geoff checked in with the panel. Sales Associates from Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty shared what was happening in their respective states and communities. Covid-19 regulations on the real estate industries in New York and New Jersey have differed, with varying results. The July 2020 Housing Market Update panelists were Keren Gonen, Pam Zachowski, and Kristi Anderson, who discussed the Vernon and Sussex  County, NJ market. Toni Kreusch shared her experiences and views on the Warwick and Orange County, NY market. Additionally, our guest panelist, Ken Aulicino, Mortgage Loan Originator with Family First Funding, shared his expertise and experiences.

First, though, here are some of the stats presented by Geoff.

It’s all about jobs, jobs, jobs

The consensus of various experts was that the US would add 3,000,000 new jobs in June. However, the actual number of jobs added was 4,800,000. While that’s a good number, there is more to the story. The Bureau of Labor Statistics reported that the unemployment rate for June was 11.1%. In March, just before Covid-necessitated shut-downs, unemployment was at 4.4%. In April, it shot up to 14.7%. Then in May it declined to 13.3% So it would appear unemployment is trending downwards. However, it’s just not that simple.

Green Team Realty July 2020 Housing Market Update

The core unemployment rate is trending upwards. Geoff took a look at historical core unemployment rates to bring things into perspective. How many companies will actually be bringing jobs back?

Real Estate Metrics

Forbearances & Foreclosures

Geoff predicted that we’ll be hearing more and more about forbearances and foreclosures in the media. Of all active forbearances past due, 77% had at least 20% equity in their homes. Of these, 59% had 30% or more equity. According to Geoff, not many people will walk away from the equity they have in their homes. As long as pricing stays intact and doesn’t plummet, many homeowners will do their best to stay in their homes and keep their mortgages going.

Showing Activity

According to Showingtime.com, showing activity is up big time. Year-over-year, the showing index is up nationally by 21.4%. Inventory has been a problem for a while, but it’s exacerbated now. The long term average of households currently on the market is 2.4% Currently that number is down to 1.2%. How does this impact pricing? It is all about supply and demand.

To learn more, watch the webinar

Watch the video to hear what the experts had to say, as well as to see Geoff’s full presentation on national and local economic and real estate trends. To compare with what was happening last month, click here for the June 2020 Housing Market Update.

“Housekeeping” Items

Contact our Panelists

Green Team Realty July 2020 Housing Market Update

Remember to join us on Tuesday, September 15th at 2 p.m. Sign up for updates now at GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU

 

Agency News and Awards July 29, 2020

Welcome Sandra Medina

 

The Green Team is proud to announce that Sandra Medina has decided to join our Warwick, NY team. We’re excited to have her on our team and look forward to helping her grow! 

Please join us in Welcoming Sandra to The Green Team New York Realty!

To learn more about Sandra Medina and her business visit her website here.

Mortgage and Home Loans July 23, 2020

Two Reasons We Won’t See a Rush of Foreclosures This Fall

The health crisis we face as a country has led businesses all over the nation to reduce or discontinue their services altogether. This pause in the economy has greatly impacted the workforce and as a result, many people have been laid off or furloughed. Naturally, that would lead many to believe we might see a rush of foreclosures this fall like we saw in 2008. The market today, however, is very different from 2008.

The concern of more foreclosures based on those that are out of work is one that we need to understand fully. There are two reasons we won’t see a rush of foreclosures this fall: forbearance extension options and strong homeowner equity.

1. Forbearance Extension

Forbearance, according to the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau (CFPB), is when your mortgage servicer or lender allows you to temporarily pay your mortgage at a lower payment or pause paying your mortgage.” This is an option for those who need immediate relief. In today’s economy, the CFPB has given homeowners a way to extend their forbearance, which will greatly assist those families who need it at this critical time.

Under the CARES Act, the CFPB notes:

 “If you experience financial hardship due to the coronavirus pandemic, you have a right to request and obtain a forbearance for up to 180 days. You also have the right to request and obtain an extension for up to another 180 days (for a total of up to 360 days).” 

2. Strong Homeowner Equity

Equity is also working in favor of today’s homeowners. This savings is another reason why we won’t see substantial foreclosures in the near future. Today’s homeowners who are in forbearance actually have more equity in their homes than what the market experienced in 2008.

The Mortgage Monitor report from Black Knight indicates that of all active forbearances which are past due on their mortgage payment, 77% have at least 20% equity in their homes (See graph below):Two Reasons We Won’t See a Rush of Foreclosures This Fall | MyKCMBlack Knight notes:

“The high level of equity provides options for homeowners, policymakers, mortgage investors and servicers in helping to avoid downstream foreclosure activity and default-related losses.”

Bottom Line

Many think we may see a rush of foreclosures this fall, but the facts just don’t add up in this case. Today’s real estate market is very different from 2008 when we saw many homeowners walk away when they owed more than their homes were worth. This time, equity is stronger and plans are in place to help those affected weather the storm.

Selling a Home July 23, 2020

Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound

With a worldwide health crisis that drove a pause in the economy this year, the housing market was greatly impacted. Many have been eagerly awaiting some bright signs of a recovery. Based on the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), June hit a much-anticipated record-setting rebound to ignite that spark.

According to NARhome sales jumped 20.7% from May to a seasonally-adjusted annual rate of 4.72 million in June: 

“Existing-home sales rebounded at a record pace in June, showing strong signs of a market turnaround after three straight months of sales declines caused by the ongoing pandemic…Each of the four major regions achieved month-over-month growth.”

Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound | MyKCMThis significant rebound is a major boost for the housing market and the U.S. economy. According to Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR, the momentum has the potential to continue on, too:

“The sales recovery is strong, as buyers were eager to purchase homes and properties that they had been eyeing during the shutdown…This revitalization looks to be sustainable for many months ahead as long as mortgage rates remain low and job gains continue.”

With mortgage rates hitting an all-time low, dropping below 3% for the first time last week, potential homebuyers are poised to continue taking advantage of this historic opportunity to buy. This fierce competition among buyers is contributing to home price increases as well, as more buyers are finding themselves in bidding wars in this environment. The report also notes:

“The median existing-home price for all housing types in June was $295,300, up 3.5% from June 2019 ($285,400), as prices rose in every region. June’s national price increase marks 100 straight months of year-over-year gains.”

The graph below shows home price increases by region, powered by low interest rates, pent-up demand, and a decline in inventory on the market:Home Sales Hit a Record-Setting Rebound | MyKCMYun also indicates:

“Home prices rose during the lockdown and could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply.”

Bottom Line

Buyers returning to the market is a great sign for the economy, as housing is still leading the way toward a recovery. If you’re ready to buy a home this year, let’s connect you to one of our Real Estate Agents to make sure you have the best possible guide with you each step of the way.

Agency News and Awards July 22, 2020

Green Team Realty’s 2nd Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders

Congratulations from Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, to our 2nd Quarter Sales Leaders.

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, was proud to announce the 2nd Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders. They are Chris Kimiecik of Green Team New York Realty in Warwick NY, In addition, Carol Buchanan was second and Terry Gavan, third.  Keren Gonen is 2Q Sales Leader for Green Team New Jersey Realty, located in Vernon NJ, with Charles Nagy and Ted Van Laar in second place, and Pam Zachowski in third.

Chris Kimiecik, Green Team New York Realty 

Geoff had the following to say about Chris’s achievement:

“Chris Kimiecik is a shining example of “success begets success.”  Here is a guy who runs one of the most successful landscaping companies in Orange County and yet he finds time to not only become a Realtor, but to be very successful at doing so.   Chris will be the first one to point out that he couldn’t do it all without the support of his wife Megan who plays an integral role in his Real Estate business.  This is the first Quarterly Sales Leader award for Chris, but I am certain that there will be more.  Congratulations Chris and Megan!”

Chris on being 2Q Sales Leader

“Our clients, my wife and real estate partner, Megan, and the support of The Green Team “Warwick” all played a part on this journey to Q2 sales leader. Through diversified businesses that integrate with each other, and our partnership with the Green Team, we are able to offer an unmatched experience. When you surround yourself with the right people and team, anything is possible.  We look forward to working with you, your friends, your family and anyone considering buying or selling a home in Warwick NY and surrounding area.”

Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty

Geoff said the following about Keren’s latest achievement:

“If it wasn’t clear before, it should be abundantly clear to everyone now that Keren Gonen is going to top the production charts in her market territory for many years to come.  No one works harder and cares more for her clients then Keren.  We are extremely blessed to have Keren as part of Green Team New Jersey Realty.  Congratulations Keren, and keep up the good work!”

This is not Keren’s first time as a Sales Leader. This is her third time as Quarterly Sales Leader. And in 2017, the year Keren started at Green Team New Jersey Realty, she was Yearly Sales Leader.

Keren on being 2Q Sales Leader

Keren had this to say about her latest achievement:

“I am very grateful to be the Second Quarter Sales Leader!  2020 started out really well for me in the Real Estate Market as it did for many others.  I contribute this to the networking group I am a part of (Referral Roundtable), my involvement in the Community, and my overall work ethic. I am that agent that gets up at 5 am to finish paperwork and still is out with clients late in the evening. This Pandemic that has aggressively changed all of our lives, also changed the Housing Market.  Like many others, working during COVID-19 means that I was able to assist clients running away from The City and into “The Country.”  Working seven days a week, coordinating showings during Corona, along with inspections, appraisals, and being mindful of how cautious we all must be during this process meant that I was able to help more people get into new homes.  Although Real Estate Agents were not deemed “Essential Workers” and thank God for those people who put their lives on the line every day and continue to do so, I believe that Real Estate Agents made the mass exodus from NYC possible for many people that were hopeless and quarantined.  This made us Agents essential to those people seeking a different way of life.”

Agency News and Awards July 14, 2020

Welcome James (Jimmy) Colgan

The Green Team is proud to announce that James (Jimmy) Colgan has decided to join our Warwick, NY team.

James has been a resident of Warwick for 15 years and is in the process of owning a townhome in New Jersey. James spent 2 years doing Real Estate in New York City but has decided to join our team because of the small, friendly, and helping atmosphere. He loves the experience of being able to help others find a new home and making the process easy for them!

Please Welcome James (Jimmy) Colgan to Green Team New York Realty!

Housing Market News July 9, 2020

A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]Pending Home Sales increased by 44.3% in May, registering the highest month-over-month gain in the index since the National Association of Realtors (NAR) started tracking this metric in January 2001. So, what exactly are pending home sales, and why is this rebound so important?

According to NAR, the Pending Home Sales Index (PHS) is:

“A leading indicator of housing activity, measures housing contract activity, and is based on signed real estate contracts for existing single-family homes, condos, and co-ops. Because a home goes under contract a month or two before it is sold, the Pending Home Sales Index generally leads Existing-Home Sales by a month or two.”

In real estate, pending home sales is a key indicator in determining the strength of the housing market. As mentioned before, it measures how many existing homes went into contract in a specific month. When a buyer goes through the steps to purchase a home, the final one is the closing. On average, that happens about two months after the contract is signed, depending on how fast or slow the process takes in each state.

Why is this rebound important?

With the COVID-19 pandemic and a shutdown of the economy, we saw a steep two-month decline in the number of houses that went into contract. In May, however, that number increased dramatically (See graph below):A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market | MyKCMThis jump means buyers are back in the market and purchasing homes right now. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR mentioned:

“This has been a spectacular recovery for contract signings and goes to show the resiliency of American consumers and their evergreen desire for homeownership…This bounce back also speaks to how the housing sector could lead the way for a broader economic recovery.”

But in order to continue with this trend, we need more houses for sale on the market. Yun continues to say:

“More listings are continuously appearing as the economy reopens, helping with inventory choices…Still, more home construction is needed to counter the persistent underproduction of homes over the past decade.”

As we move through the year, we’ll see an increase in the number of houses being built. This will help combat a small portion of the inventory deficit. The lack of overall inventory, however, is still a challenge, and it is creating an opportunity for homeowners who are ready to sell. As the graph below shows, during the last 12 months, the supply of homes for sale has been decreasing year-over-year and is not keeping up with the demand from homebuyers.A Historic Rebound for the Housing Market | MyKCM

Bottom Line

If you decided not to sell this spring due to the health crisis, maybe it’s time to jump back into the market while buyers are actively looking for homes. Let’s connect today to determine your best move forward.
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Selling a Home July 9, 2020

Best Time to Sell? When Competition Is at an All-Time Low

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In a recent survey of home sellers by Qualtrics, 87% of respondents said they were concerned their home won’t sell because of the pandemic and resulting economic recession. Of the respondents, 51% said they are “seriously worried.” That concern seems reasonable considering the current condition of the economy. The data, however, is showing that home purchasers are still very active despite the disruptions American families have experienced this year.

The latest Existing Home Sales Report published by the National Association of Realtors (NAR) revealed that 340,000 single-family homes sold in this country last month. NAR’s most recent Pending Sales Report (homes going into contract) surpassed last month’s number by over 44%, which far exceeded analysts’ projections of 15%. ShowingTime reported that appointments to see homes (both virtually and in-person) have increased in every region of the country and are up 21.4% nationwide over the same time last year.

While buyer activity is surging, the number of listings has fallen to an all-time low. Zelman Associates, in their latest residential real estate report, revealed that housing inventory as a percentage of households has fallen to 1.2%, which is half of the long-term average and lower than any other time in our history.

Bidding Wars Heating Up Again

With buyer demand growing and the supply of available homes shrinking, purchasers are again finding themselves needing to outbid other buyers. NAR, in a recent blog post, revealed:

“On average, there were about three offers on a home that closed in May, up from just about two in April 2020 and in May 2019 (2.3 offers).”

Bidding wars guarantee houses sell quickly at a price near or even slightly over the listing price.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of selling, don’t be concerned about putting your house on the market right now. There’s no better time to sell an item than when demand for it is high and supply is low. It is exactly at that time when you will negotiate your best possible deal.

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Buying a home July 7, 2020

Taking Advantage of Homebuying Affordability in Today’s Market

Everyone is ready to buy a home at different times in their lives, and despite the health crisis, today is no exception. Understanding how affordability works and the main market factors that impact it may help those who are ready to buy a home narrow down their optimal window of time to make a purchase.

There are three main factors that go into determining how affordable homes are for buyers:

  1. Mortgage Rates
  2. Mortgage Payments as a Percentage of Income
  3. Home Prices

The National Association of Realtors (NAR), produces a Housing Affordability Index, which takes these three factors into account and determines an overall affordability score for housing. According to NAR, the index:

“…measures whether or not a typical family earns enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a typical home at the national and regional levels based on the most recent price and income data.”

Their methodology states:

“To interpret the indices, a value of 100 means that a family with the median income has exactly enough income to qualify for a mortgage on a median-priced home. An index above 100 signifies that family earning the median income has more than enough income to qualify for a mortgage loan on a median-priced home, assuming a 20 percent down payment.”

So, the higher the index, the more affordable it is to purchase a home. Here’s a graph of the index going back to 1990:Taking Advantage of Homebuying Affordability in Today’s Market | MyKCMThe green bar represents today’s affordability. We can see that homes are more affordable now than they have been at any point since the housing crash when distressed properties (foreclosures and short sales) dominated the market. Those properties were sold at large discounts not seen before in the housing market.

Why are homes so affordable today?

Although there are three factors that drive the overall equation, the one that’s playing the largest part in today’s homebuying affordability is historically low mortgage rates. Based on this primary factor, we can see that it is more affordable to buy a home today than at any time in the last seven years.

If you’re considering purchasing your first home or moving up to the one you’ve always hoped for, it’s important to understand how affordability plays into the overall cost of your home. With that in mind, buying while mortgage rates are as low as they are now may save you quite a bit of money over the life of your home loan.

Bottom Line

If you feel ready to buy, purchasing a home this season may save you significantly over time based on historic affordability trends. Connect with one of our Sales Agents today to determine if now is the right time for you to make your move.

Buying a home July 7, 2020

Is the Health Crisis Driving Buyers Out of Urban Areas?

The pandemic has caused consumers to re-examine the components that make up the “perfect home.” Many families are no longer comfortable with the locations and layouts of their existing homes. The allure of city life (more congested) seems to be giving way to either suburban or rural life (less congested). The fascination with an open floor plan seems to be fading as people are finding a need for more privacy while working from home.

Recently, news.com released a report that revealed how buyers’ views of listings are leaning heavily to more suburban and rural properties. Here are the year-over-year percentage increases in views per property type:

  • Urban – 7%
  • Suburban – 13%
  • Rural – 16%

In the report, Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research for realtor.com, gives these numbers some context:

“This migration to the suburbs is not a new trend, but it has become more pronounced. After several months of shelter-in-place orders, the desire to have more space and the potential for more people to work remotely are likely two of the factors contributing to the popularity of the burbs.”

Realtor Magazine also just reported that the desire to move is strongest in our city markets:

“Nearly 30% of respondents living in a high-density urban area say that the pandemic is prompting them to want to move by the end of the year…This is more than double the rate of those living in rural parts of the country, where residents are much more likely to stay put rather than to relocate.”

New Construction Also Seeing a Surge in Views

Since the pandemic has altered how consumers think about floor plans, builders are anticipating how future homes will change. In a recent press release by Zillow, it was explained that:

  • Builders believe as people spend more time at home during the pandemic, buyers are realizing which features of their homes are working and not working.
  • Homebuilders predict open-concept floor plans will be a thing of the past, as people now value more walls, doors, and overall privacy.
  • New construction, which offers the chance to personalize home features, saw its listing page views grow by 73% over last May.

The Virus is Even Impacting the Luxury Second-Home Market

It appears that COVID-19 is impacting the luxury market too. In an article released last week titled, Luxury Buyers Return to Market in Force, Danielle Hale, Chief Economist for realtor.com reported:

“Stay at home orders and social distancing have put a new value on the extra space. We’re seeing this in the luxury market as well, which could mean there is renewed interest from high-end buyers to find a second-home that is within driving distance from their primary residence.

Much like the suburbs are gaining favor with home shoppers, second home markets are seeing increased interest from luxury buyers…Views of luxury properties accelerated 56% in The Hamptons, 28% in Palm Springs and 24% in Greenwich compared to January trends.”

Bottom Line

It appears that a percentage of people are preparing to leave many urban areas. Some of these moves will be permanent, while others will be temporary (such as a getaway to a second home). In either case, many consumers are on the move. Our Sales Agents are ready and willing to help in any way they can.