Housing Market News September 21, 2020

Is the Economic Recovery Beating All Projections?

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]Earlier this year, many economists and market analysts were predicting an apocalyptic financial downturn that would potentially rattle the U.S. economy for years to come. They immediately started to compare it to the Great Depression of a century ago. Six months later, the economy is still trying to stabilize, but it is evident that the country will not face the total devastation projected by some. As we continue to battle the pandemic, forecasts are now being revised upward. The Wall Street Journal (WSJ) just reported:

“The U.S. economy and labor market are recovering from the coronavirus-related downturn more quickly than previously expected, economists said in a monthly survey.

Business and academic economists polled by The Wall Street Journal expect gross domestic product to increase at an annualized rate of 23.9% in the third quarter. That is up sharply from an expectation of an 18.3% growth rate in the previous survey.”

What Shape Will the Recovery Take?

Economists have historically cast economic recoveries in the form of one of four letters – V, U, W, or L.

V-shaped recovery is all about the speed of the recovery. This quick recovery is treated as the best-case scenario for any economy that enters a recession. NOTE: Economists are now also using a new term for this type of recovery called the “Nike Swoosh.” It is a form of the V-shape that may take several months to recover, thus resembling the Nike Swoosh logo.

U-shaped recovery is when the economy experiences a sharp fall into a recession, like the V-shaped scenario. In this case, however, the economy remains depressed for a longer period of time, possibly several years, before growth starts to pick back up again.

W-shaped recovery can look like an economy is undergoing a V-shaped recovery until it plunges into a second, often smaller, contraction before fully recovering to pre-recession levels.

An L-shaped recovery is seen as the worst-case scenario. Although the economy returns to growth, it is at a much lower base than pre-recession levels, which means it takes significantly longer to fully recover.

Many experts predicted that this would be a dreaded L-shaped recovery, like the 2008 recession that followed the housing market collapse. Fortunately, that does not seem to be the case.

The same WSJ survey mentioned above asked the economists which letter this recovery will most resemble. Here are the results:Is the Economic Recovery Beating All Projections? | MyKCM

What About the Unemployment Numbers?

It’s difficult to speak positively about a jobs report that shows millions of Americans are still out of work. However, when we compare it to many forecasts from earlier this year, the numbers are much better than most experts expected. There was talk of numbers that would rival the Great Depression when the nation suffered through four consecutive years of unemployment over 20%.

The first report after the 2020 shutdown did show a 14.7% unemployment rate, but much to the surprise of many analysts, the rate has decreased each of the last three months and is now in the single digits (8.4%).

Economist Jason Furman, Professor at Harvard University‘s John F. Kennedy School of Government and the Chair of the Council of Economic Advisers during the previous administration, recently put it into context:

“An unemployment rate of 8.4% is much lower than most anyone would have thought it a few months ago. It is still a bad recession but not a historically unprecedented event or one we need to go back to the Great Depression for comparison.”

The economists surveyed by the WSJ also forecasted unemployment rates going forward:

  • 2021: 6.3%
  • 2022: 5.2%
  • 2023: 4.9%

The following table shows how the current employment situation compares to other major disruptions in our economy:Is the Economic Recovery Beating All Projections? | MyKCM

Bottom Line

The economic recovery still has a long way to go. So far, we are doing much better than most thought would be possible.
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Buying a home September 3, 2020

Homebuyer Demand Is Far Above Last Year’s Pace

 

Homebuying has been on the rise over the past few months, with record-breaking sales powering through the market in June and July. Buyers are actively purchasing homes, and the momentum is continuing into the fall. It is, however, becoming harder for buyers to find homes to purchase. If you’ve been thinking about selling your house, the coming weeks might just be the timing you’ve been waiting for.

According to the Pending Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

Pending home sales in July achieved another month of positive contract activity, marking three consecutive months of growth.

The Pending Home Sales Index (PHSI), a forward-looking indicator of home sales based on contract signings, rose 5.9% to 122.1 in July. Year-over-year, contract signings rose 15.5%. An index of 100 is equal to the level of contract activity in 2001.”

This means that for the past several months, buyers have signed an increasing number of contracts to purchase homes – well above where the market was at this time last year. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at NAR notes:

“We are witnessing a true V-shaped sales recovery as homebuyers continue their strong return to the housing market…Home sellers are seeing their homes go under contract in record time, with nine new contracts for every 10 new listings.”

Below is a graph that shows the impressive recovery of homes sales compared to previous years. The deep blue v marks the slowdown from this spring that turned into an exponential jump in sales that followed through the summer, skyrocketing above years past:Homebuyer Demand Is Far Above Last Year’s Pace | MyKCM

What Does This Mean for Sellers?

If you were thinking about putting your house on the market in the spring, but decided to wait due to the health crisis, it may be time to make your move. Buyers are in the market right now. With so few homes available to purchase, homeowners today are experiencing more bidding wars, creating an optimal time to sell.

Is This Trend Going to Continue?

As CNBC notes, there are no signs of slowing buyer demand this fall:

The usual summer slowdown in the housing market is not happening this year. Buyers continue to show strong demand, spurred by the new stay-at-home world of the coronavirus and by record low mortgage rates.”

Danielle Hale, Chief Economist at realtor.com, concurred:

“In a typical year in the housing market, buyer interest begins to wane before seller interest causing the usual seasonal slowdown as we move into the fall. Due to a delayed spring season and low mortgage rates, we could see buyer interest extend longer than usual into the typically quieter fall. Whether this means more home sales will depend on whether sellers participate or decide to stay on the sidelines.”

As Hale mentioned, homeowners who are willing to sell their houses right now will play a big role in whether the trend continues. The market needs more homes to satisfy ongoing buyer demand. Maybe it’s time to leverage your equity and move up while eager home shoppers are ready to purchase a house just like yours.

Bottom Line

If your current home doesn’t meet your family’s changing needs, connect with one of our Sales Agents to help you sell your house and make the move you’ve been waiting for all year.

Housing Market News September 3, 2020

How Will the Presidential Election Impact Real Estate?

 

The year 2020 will be remembered as one of the most challenging times of our lives. A worldwide pandemic, a recession causing historic unemployment, and a level of social unrest perhaps never seen before have all changed the way we live. Only the real estate market seems to be unaffected, as a new forecast projects there may be more homes purchased this year than last year.

As we come to the end of this tumultuous year, we’re preparing for perhaps the most contentious presidential election of the century. Today, it’s important to look at the impact past presidential election years have had on the real estate market.

Is there a drop-off in home sales during a presidential election year?

BTIG, a research and analysis company, looked at new home sales from 1963 through 2019 in their report titled One House, Two House, Red House, Blue House. They noted that in non-presidential years, there is a -9.8% decrease in November compared to October. This is the normal seasonality of the market, with a slowdown in activity that’s usually seen in fall and winter.

However, it also revealed that in presidential election years, the typical drop increases to -15%. The report explains why:

“This may indicate that potential homebuyers may become more cautious in the face of national election uncertainty.”

Are those sales lost forever?

No. BTIG determined:

“This caution is temporary, and ultimately results in deferred sales, as the economy, jobs, interest rates and consumer confidence all have far more meaningful roles in the home purchase decision than a Presidential election result in the months that follow.”

In a separate study done by Meyers Research & Zonda, Ali Wolf, Chief Economist, agrees that those purchases are just delayed until after the election:

“History suggests that the slowdown is largely concentrated in the month of November. In fact, the year after a presidential election is the best of the four-year cycle. This suggests that demand for new housing is not lost because of election uncertainty, rather it gets pushed out to the following year.”

Will it matter who is elected?

To some degree, but not in the overall number of home sales. As mentioned above, consumer confidence plays a significant role in a family’s desire to buy a home. How may consumer confidence impact the housing market post-election? The BTIG report covered that as well:

“A change in administration might benefit trailing blue county housing dynamics. The re-election of President Trump could continue to propel red county outperformance.”

Again, overall sales should not be impacted in a significant way.

Bottom Line

If mortgage rates remain near all-time lows, the economy continues to recover, and unemployment continues to decrease, the real estate market should remain strong up to and past the election. Contact one of our Sales Agents today to discuss your real estate needs.

Agency News and Awards August 30, 2020

Edward Sattler receives CIREC designation

[et_pb_section fb_built=”1″ admin_label=”section” _builder_version=”3.0.47″][et_pb_row admin_label=”row” _builder_version=”3.0.48″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”][et_pb_column type=”4_4″ _builder_version=”3.0.47″ parallax=”off” parallax_method=”on”][et_pb_text admin_label=”Text” _builder_version=”3.0.74″ background_size=”initial” background_position=”top_left” background_repeat=”repeat”]Green Team New York Realty is pleased to announce that Edward Sattler has received his Commercial and Investment Real Estate Certification (CIREC).

According to Ed,

“I’ve been interested in commercial real estate for years. I enjoy working with clients and understanding their needs. Most importantly, I want to help them achieve their real estate goals, whether as buyer, seller, landlord or tenant.”

Ed’s start in real estate

When Ed says he has been interested in commercial real estate for years, you can believe it. His passion for real estate was first recognized by his parents when he was in fourth grade. By age 12, junior working papers in hand, he was saving for a down payment. Ten years later, Ed and his wife had purchased land and completed construction on their first home in Warwick. Furthermore, ten years after that, they had completed a minor subdivision and built 2 more houses.

What the CIREC designation means

According to the NAR Code of Ethics, agents must have the proper training for specialized services. Agents undertaking the extensive CIREC course obtain the needed foundation to provide commercial and investment real estate services.  A wide range of topics are covered. Included are tax implications, 1031 Exchanges, valuing property, and more.  Also covered, preparation of financial analyses, and comparing financial impacts of leasing vs. buying. Furthermore, negotiating concepts and tactics are important parts of the course.

 

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Agency News and AwardsAgent Tips August 29, 2020

WHY HAVING A MENTOR CAN MAKE ALL THE DIFFERENCE

Green Team Realty’s Mentor Program

When asked why they joined the Green Team, many sales associates cite the company’s exceptional training programs.  There is an ever-growing library of video training sessions, as well as tech training and practice sessions. Education is an ongoing part of the Green Team.   However, one of the most popular training programs is the Mentoring Program.

How the mentor program came into existence

Like many great ideas, this one had humble beginnings.  Geoff Green says that the match that lit the fire was when one of his more experienced agents came to him. He told Geoff, “You have got to start training all these new agents because they keep bothering me!”  Geoff replied, “You’re right!  I do.” Thus, the mentoring program was born.

It was not without growing pains.  There were lots of mistakes and missteps in the beginning, but since 2010 it has blossomed and evolved into a well-oiled machine. There are rules, responsibilities, and expectations for both mentor and mentee. It was important to make the program manageable for mentors and to make sure they were well paid for their time and effort.  Most importantly, new sales associates entering into a mentoring arrangement benefit from real-life learning, day in, and day out.

The program benefits both Mentee and Mentor

The program works so well because it does provide benefits to both parties. A mentor provides time, experience, and knowledge. Mentees compensate their mentors according to the terms outlined in the contract they enter into. The mentor’s responsibilities are designed to offer mentees the knowledge and support they need to successfully do a transaction from beginning to end. For many of those entering into a mentor/mentee agreement, the end result is lasting friendship and mutual support.

Hear from some of the Sales Associates involved in the program

Probably one of the best ways to learn about the program is from those involved in it. Some started out as mentees and are now mentors. Dean Diltz in the Warwick office is very enthusiastic about the program.  He came from a marketing background and when he started with the Green Team, Lucyann Tinnirello became his mentor. She showed him the ropes, helped him get up and running the Green Team way. They became friends and, even while her “student” now mentors sales associates himself, he still goes to her for advice.   Dean advises new agents, as well as those coming from other offices, to work with a mentor.

Vikki Garby started with another agency in 2014 and received no training.  The following year she was recruited and mentored by Green Team’s Tammy Scotto. In addition to the mentorship, Vikki found that the Green Team provided video tutorials and how-to’s on every aspect of real estate.  She was highly motivated and dove into the videos and into shadowing Tammy, learning from every transaction. According to Vikki, if you work the mentorship program, it works for you. The tools are there, and if you use them, you’ll be successful.  If you’re highly motivated, following your mentor around for a few months should give you enough confidence to go out on your own.

Mentoring at Green Team New Jersey Realty

When Green Team New Jersey Realty opened its doors in September 2016, the mentoring program began there, too. One of the first teams was Keren Gonen, mentor and Alison Miller, mentee According to Geoff, Alison began “tearing it up!” Keren says that Alison had the drive to succeed, and that made it easy to work with her. And Keren enjoyed the satisfaction that came from contributing to someone’s success.  As far as Alison goes, Geoff pushed for her to join the mentoring program as soon as she came on board with the Green Team. He said it would help her through every step of the way and so she signed up.  While she liked doing a lot of things on her own, she was not afraid to call on Keren, who was always available when she needed something, including being there for her first closing. According to Alison, anyone new to the business needs the program.  And, it’s always good to have that back-up.

Agency News and Awards August 28, 2020

Meet Ryan Fisher

Chapter One: How Ryan met Geoff

Ryan Fisher comes to the Green Team with a distinction that no other sales associate can claim. Ryan and Geoff Green went to the University of New Hampshire together. After college, they worked together in the mall industry. That’s when Geoff recruited Ryan to Pyramid Management Group. Ryan was a top-performing specialty leasing representative at Palisades Shopping Mall. Within two years he grew to be in the top four producers in the company. During his time with Pyramid, Ryan honed skills and techniques that he uses to this day. He learned how to canvas and generate leads. He also learned the art of follow-up and setting appointments. Most importantly, he learned how to close. Ryan also developed the habit of setting goals and acquiring the positive mindset it takes to accomplish them.

Chapter Two: New England, Taxis, then Real Estate

Ryan decided to return to New England. For 12 years he owned and operated a taxi company on Martha’s Vineyard. It was here he learned to run a business from start to finish. Using connections from his university days, he hired students to work each summer. Furthermore, many of them returned to work for multiple summers. He grew the business acquiring a second medallion. This allowed him to operate in two towns with a fleet of 12 vehicles.

Somehow, during this time, he also managed to get his real estate license in Massachusetts. When it came time to buy, Ryan was able to negotiate a seller-financed deal to buy the mixed-use property he ran his business out of. After the purchase, Ryan developed the property by replacing the not-to code garage with a commercial garage with an apartment on top. He eventually sold the taxi medallions, but still owns the property and rents both the commercial and residential units out.

Chapter Three: Ryan and Geoff, Together Again!

Once again, Geoff and Ryan began collaborating on a business idea. Geoff pitched the idea of REALLY – The Business Referral Exchange™. Referrals within real estate are fragmented. REALLY offers Business professionals the chance to network and grow their business. Ryan was intrigued. He had always thought real estate would be a good fit. Ryan loves working with people and enjoys the challenges that come in this field. He was also eager to play a part in helping REALLY grow. Furthermore, It seemed a natural fit to join the Green Team.

Ryan is currently licensed in both Massachusetts and New York. He is happily married with two children and a dog named Mona. Ryan and family moved from New England to Warwick. Ryan brings to his real estate business a unique and extremely relevant skillset. He also brings his love of music, drumming in particular. Of course, Ryan and Mona the dog enjoy hiking and outdoor activities.

Buying a home August 20, 2020

Home Insurance Myths and Misconceptions

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, and Garret Durland of Seely & Durland Insurance presented a webinar on myths and misconceptions people have about Home Insurance.  Also joining the conversation were Michelle Dixon and Brianna Smith of Seely & Durland. This local insurance agency has been an important part of Warwick since 1934. Presented live on Facebook Thursday, August 13, the information they shared is important to all homeowners. If you were unable to catch it on Facebook Live, you can view the webinar here. In addition, below you’ll find a summary of some of the topics discussed.

Home Insurance.  Can’t Live with it. Can’t live without it!

Three out of five homes are underinsured. There is a misconception between market value and insurable replacement cost. A difference exists between what the home sells for versus what it costs to rebuild a home. Thus, replacement cost often exceeds market value.

Common Home Insurance Exclusions

Learn what the most common exclusions are. Also, learn about specific coverage available for some of these exclusions. It’s interesting to note that flood losses can include damage from a broken water main (surface water entering a home).

Home Insurance to cover Home Businesses

With more and more people operating a business at home many lack coverage, leaving them financially exposed. There are options available to provide needed coverage. There is also coverage available for “businesses” by kids. For instance, snow shoveling, landscaping or lawn mowing for neighbors.

High-Value Items

The standard homeowner’s insurance policy provides coverage up to a set amount for lost or stolen valuables. However, high-value items can be covered on a floater based on their appraised value. This includes jewelry, furs, guns, coins, watches, etc.

Fallen Trees Coverage

A tree falling on your property is only covered if it does damage to a structure or blocks your driveway.  There have been many storms impacting our area. Therefore, it’s important to understand the limits of your Home Insurance coverage.

Personal LIability

Did you know that if your child slanders someone on social media, that may become a situation requiring personal injury coverage? A reminder that people must be careful about what they are posting online. Personal injury coverage can be added to your Home Insurance policy An umbrella policy is an excess liability policy. It provides coverage over the limit on your home, auto, etc.

Answers to often-asked questions/Ending on a positive note.

Something most homeowners wonder about is the effect of filing multiple claims. Also of interest, what if you do Airbnb, HomeAway, or VRBO. How are these being covered by insurance companies?  In addition, what impact does your credit score have on premium rates? Find the answers in the webinar. Most importantly, there are ways to save on Home Insurance. Check out the tips discussed to see if you qualify for savings. Finally, view the informative follow-up discussion with Geoff Green and Garrett Durland,

Contact Information

Seely & Durland Insurance is located at 13 Oakland Avenue, Warwick NY. Their direct line is 845-986-1177. You can also visit their website at seely-durland.com.

 

 

 

 

 

Mortgage and Home Loans August 18, 2020

Mortgage Rates & Payments by Decade [INFOGRAPHIC]

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Mortgage Rates & Payments by Decade [INFOGRAPHIC] | MyKCM

Some Highlights

  • Sometimes it helps to see the dollars and cents you’ll save when you purchase a home while mortgage rates are low.
  • It helps to get a rough idea of what your mortgage payment will be at different rates.
  • Today’s low rates mean it’s less expensive to borrow money, so the savings over the life of your loan is significant.
  • Connect with one of our Real Estate Sales Agents to determine the best way to position your family for a financially-savvy move in today’s market.

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Selling a Home August 18, 2020

Sellers Are Returning to the Housing Market

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In today’s housing market, it can be a big challenge for buyers to find homes to purchase, as the number of houses for sale is far below the current demand. Now, however, we’re seeing sellers slowly returning to the market, a bright spark for potential buyers. Javier Vivas, Director of Economic Research at realtor.comexplains:

“Seller confidence has been improving gradually after reaching its bottom in mid-April, and now it appears to have reached an important recovery milestone…After five long months, sellers are back in the housing market; while encouraging, the improvement to new listings is only the first step in the long road to solving low inventory issues keeping many buyers at bay.”

Even with the number of homes coming into the market, the available inventory is well below where it needs to be to satisfy buyer interest. The National Association of Realtors (NAR) reports:

“Total housing inventory at the end of June totaled 1.57 million units, up 1.3% from May, but still down 18.2% from one year ago (1.92 million). Unsold inventory sits at a 4.0-month supply at the current sales pace, down from both 4.8 months in May and from the 4.3-month figure recorded in June 2019.”

Houses today are selling faster than they’re coming to market. That’s why we only have inventory for 4 months at the current sales pace when in reality we need inventory for 6 months to keep up. But, as mentioned above, sellers are starting to return to the game. Realtor.com explains:

“The ‘housing supply’ component – which tracks growth of new listings – reached 101.7, up 4.9 points over the prior week, finally reaching the January growth baseline. The big milestone in new listings growth comes as seller sentiment continues to build momentum…After constant gradual improvements since mid-April, seller confidence appears to be reaching an important milestone. The temporary boost in new listings comes as the summer season replaces the typical spring homebuying season. More homes are entering the market than typical for this time of the year.

Why is this good for sellers?

A good time to enter the housing market is when the competition in your area is low, meaning there are fewer sellers than interested buyers. You don’t want to wait for all of the other homeowners to list their houses before you do, providing more options for buyers to choose from. With sellers starting to get back into the market after five months of waiting, if you want to sell your house for the best possible price, now is a great time to do so.

Why is this good for buyers?

It can be challenging to find a home in today’s low-inventory environment. If more sellers are starting to put their houses up for sale, there will be more homes for you to choose from, providing a better opportunity to find the home of your dreams while taking advantage of the affordability that comes with historically low mortgage rates.

Bottom Line

While we still have a long way to go to catch up with the current demand, inventory is slowly starting to return to the market. If you’re thinking of moving this year, talk to one of our Real Estate Sales Agents today so you’re ready to make your move when the home of your dreams comes up for sale.

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Housing Market News August 11, 2020

Current Buyer & Seller Perks in the Housing Market

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Today’s housing market is making a truly impressive turnaround, and it’s also setting up some outstanding opportunities for buyers and sellers. Whether you’re thinking of buying or selling a home this year, there are perks today that are rarely available, and definitely worth looking into. Here are the top two.

The Biggest Perk for Buyers: Low Mortgage Rates

The most impressive buyer incentive today is the average mortgage interest rate. Just last week, mortgage rates hit an all-time low for the eighth time this year. The 30-year fixed-rate is now averaging 2.88%, the lowest rate in the survey’s history, which dates back to 1971 (See graph below):Current Buyer & Seller Perks in the Housing Market | MyKCMThis is a huge advantage for buyers. To put it in perspective, it means that today you can get a lower rate than any of the past two generations of homebuyers in your family if you decide to purchase at this time.

“Historically-low mortgage rates are stoking demand for real estate, as buyers are rushing to lock-in low monthly payments,” said George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com.

In addition, the National Mortgage News notes how today’s buyers have increasing purchasing power due to these low mortgage rates:

“Purchasing power rose 10% year-over-year…With interest rates hitting record lows, buyers were able to afford $32,000 “more house” as of July 23 than they could the year before with the same monthly payment.”

This is a great perk for buyers who are hoping to potentially get more for their money in a home, something many are considering today as they re-evaluate the amount of space they ideally need for their families. It is an opportunity not seen in 50 years, and one not to be missed if the time is right for you to buy a home.

The Biggest Perk for Sellers: Low Inventory

Today, there are simply not enough houses on the market for the number of buyers looking to purchase them. According to the National Association of Realtors (NAR):

“Total housing inventory at the end of June totaled 1.57 million units, up 1.3% from May, but still down 18.2% from one year ago (1.92 million).”

The red bars in the graph below indicate that the inventory of homes coming into the market continues to decline. It was low as we entered the pandemic and has reduced even further this year. Houses today are selling faster than they’re being listed, and that’s creating an even greater supply shortage (See graph below):Current Buyer & Seller Perks in the Housing Market | MyKCMThe lack of inventory has been a challenging situation for a while now, and with low mortgage rates fueling buyer demand, inventory is even harder for buyers to find today. Buyers are eager to purchase, and because of the shortage of homes available, they’re encountering more bidding warsThis is one of the factors keeping home prices strong, an advantage for sellers. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist for NAR notes that this trend may continue, too:

“Home prices rose during the lockdown and could rise even further due to heavy buyer competition and a significant shortage of supply.”

With low inventory and high buyer demand, homeowners can potentially earn an increasing profit on their houses and sell them quickly in this sizzling summer market.

Bottom Line

Whether you’re thinking about buying or selling at home, there are some key perks available right now. Let’s connect today to discuss how they may play to your advantage in our local market.

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