If you’re looking to buy or sell a house, chances are you’ve heard talk about today’s rising home prices. And while this increase in home values is great news for sellers, you may be wondering what the future holds. Will prices continue to rise with time, or should you expect them to fall?
To answer that question, let’s first understand a few terms you may be hearing right now.
Appreciation is an increase in the value of an asset.
Depreciation is a decrease in the value of an asset.
Deceleration is when something happens at a slower pace.
It’s important to note home prices have increased, or appreciated, for 114 straight months. To find out if that trend may continue, look to the experts. Pulsenomics surveyed over 100 economists, investment strategists, and housing market analysts asking for their five-year projections. In terms of what lies ahead, experts say the market may see some slight deceleration, but not depreciation.
Here’s the forecast for the next few years:As the graph above shows, prices are expected to continue to rise, just not at the same pace we’ve seen over the last year. Over 100 experts agree, there is no expectation for price depreciation. As the arrows indicate, each number is an increase, which means prices will rise each year.
Bill McBride, author of the blog Calculated Risk, also expects deceleration, but not depreciation:
“My sense is the Case-Shiller National annual growth rate of 19.7% is probably close to a peak, and that year-over-year price increases will slow later this year.”
“. . . home price appreciation is on the cusp of flipping to a deceleratingtrend.”
A recent article from realtor.com indicates you should expect:
“. . . annual price increases will slow to a more normal level, . . .”
What Does This Deceleration Mean for You?
What experts are projecting for the years ahead is more in line with the historical norm for appreciation. According to data from Black Knight, the average annual appreciation from 1995-2020 is 4.1%. As you can see from the chart above, the expert forecasts are closer to that pace, which means you should see appreciation at a level that’s aligned with a more normal year.
If you’re a buyer, don’t expect a sudden or drastic drop in home prices – experts say it won’t happen. Instead, think about your homeownership goals and consider purchasing a home before prices rise further.
If you’re a seller, the continued home price appreciation is good news for the value of your house. Work with an agent to list your house for the right price based on market conditions.
Bottom Line
Experts expect price deceleration, not price depreciation over the coming years. Let’s connect to talk through what’s happening in the housing market today, where things are headed, and what it means for you.
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As you follow the news, you’re likely seeing headlines discussing what’s going on in today’s housing market. Chances are high that some of the more recent storylines you’ve come across mention terms like cooling or slowing when talking about where the market is headed.
But what do these terms mean? The housing market today is anything but normal, and it’s still an incredibly strong sellers’ market, especially when compared to the few years leading up to the pandemic. With that in mind, what can previous years tell us about today’s real estate market and if it’s truly slowing?
We’re Still Seeing an Above Average Number of Sales
You may see headlines about a drop in home sales. But are those headlines telling the full story? The most recent Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) does show a drop of about 2% from July to August. But the month-over-month decline doesn’t provide the full picture (see graph below):As the graph shows, historical context is key. Today’s home sales are well ahead of some of the more normal years that led up to the health crisis. That means buyers are still in the market, which is great news if you’re planning to list your home.
Houses Are Selling Faster Than Usual
When headlines mention the market is slowing, sellers may naturally wonder if their house will sell as quickly as they’d like. According to the most recent Realtors Confidence Index from NAR, homes are still selling at recordspeed(see graph below):Again, if we look back at data from previous years, we can see the average time on market – 17 days – means homes are selling faster than a normal pace.
Bidding Wars Are Still the Norm
The Realtors Confidence Index from NAR also shows a drop in the average number of offers homes are receiving in August, and many headlines may simply focus there without providing the important context (see graph below):Again, it’s important to compare today’s market to trends from recent years. Currently, the average number ofoffers per listing is higher than 39 of the previous 45 months. That means the likelihood of a bidding war on your home is still high. And the number of offers your house receives can have a major influence on the final sale price.
So, Is the Market Slowing Down?
While there are slight declines in various month-to-month data, it’s important to keep historical context in mind when determining what’s happening in today’s market. Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist at First American, put it best recently, saying:
“It’s not the white-hot market from earlier in the year & it’s not the 2020 market benefiting from a wave of pent-up demand but make no mistake this is still a hot housing market.”
Bottom Line
Don’t let headlines make you rethink listing your home this fall. Selling today means you can still take advantage of high buyer demand, multiple offers, and a quick sale. If you’re thinking of selling your house, let’s connect and discuss why this fall is the perfect time to do so.
Maybe with the leverage you currently have, you can negotiate a deal that will allow you to make the move of your dreams. What’s your home’s value?
Today’s strong sellers’ market is the direct result of high demand and low supply.
Low mortgage rates and generational trends have created an increased demand for homes. Meanwhile, the slower pace of new home construction and homeowners staying in their homes longer have both led to today’s low supply.
If you’re thinking of selling, let’s connect to talk about our local area and how you can take advantage of today’s housing market.
Maybe with the leverage you currently have, you can negotiate a deal that will allow you to make the move of your dreams. What’s your home’s value?
There’s a well-known economic theory – the law of supply and demand – that explains what’s happening with prices in the current real estate market. Put simply, when demand for an item is high, prices rise. When the supply of the item increases, prices fall. Of course, when demand is very high and supply is very low, prices can rise significantly.
Understanding the impact both supply and demand have can provide the answers to a few popular questions about today’s housing market:
Why are prices rising?
Where are prices headed?
What does this mean for homebuyers?
Why Are Prices Rising?
According to the latest Home Price Insights report from CoreLogic, home prices have risen 18.1% since this time last year. But what’s driving the increase?
Recent buyer and seller activity data from the National Association of Realtors (NAR) helps answer that question. When we take NAR’s buyer activity data and compare it to the seller traffic during the same timeframe, we can see buyer demand continues to outpace seller activity by a wide margin. In other words, the demand for homes is significantly greater than the current supply that’s available to buy(see maps below):This combination of low supply and high demand is what’s driving home prices up. Bill McBride, author of the Calculated Risk blog, puts it best, saying:
“By some measures, house prices seem high, but the recent price increases make sense from a supply and demand perspective.”
Where Are Prices Headed?
The supply of homes for sale will greatly affect where prices head over the coming months. Many experts forecast prices will continue to increase, but they’ll likely appreciate at a slower rate.
Buyers hoping to purchase the home of their dreams may see this as welcome news. In this case, perspective is important: a slight moderation of home prices does not mean prices will depreciate or fall. Price increases may occur at a slower pace, but experts still expect them to rise.
Five major entities that closely follow the real estate market forecast home prices will continue appreciating through 2022 (see graph below):
What Does This Mean for Homebuyers?
If you’re waiting to enter the market because you’re expecting prices to drop, you may end up paying more in the long run. Even if price increases occur at a slower rate next year, prices are still projected to rise. That means the home of your dreams will likely cost even more in 2022.
Bottom Line
The truth is, high demand and low supply are what’s driving up home prices in today’s housing market. And while prices may increase at a slower pace in the coming months, experts still expect them to rise. If you’re a potential homebuyer, let’s connect today to discuss what that could mean for you if you wait even longer to buy.
Maybe with the leverage you currently have, you can negotiate a deal that will allow you to make the move of your dreams. What’s your home’s value?
The September 2021 Housing Market Update was moderated by Geoff Green and held on September 21 at 12 p.m.
The entire webinar is available here if you missed it live or if you’d like to watch it again.
Where things are… And where they’re headed
This quote from Odeta Kushi, Deputy Chief Economist, First American, sums up what’s happening:
“We are seeing some signs of softening in the housing market, but context is important here… We’re still very much in a sellers’ market, but we are seeing some early signs of softening.”
Geoff presented statistics that support this statement. Context is very important. Firstly, before the pandemic the market was robust. Secondly, the impact of the pandemic on the market was tremendous. According to ShowingTime’s Monthly Index, the number of showings is softening. However, it’s still higher than before the pandemic. Thus, the market remains strong.
Statistics presented on the percentage of homes selling over list price confirm that the market remains strong. Furthermore, new monthly listings are increasing over pandemic levels.
Affordability
Homes are becoming less affordable. But, they are not unaffordable. Affordability takes into account wages, cost of living, etc. However, affordability is still high compared to the stats of the last 30 years. In addition, rental prices have soared, making buying a home a more desirable option. Percentage of income needed for mortgage payment increases as home prices continue to climb. However, it still remains below the 25% required by mortgage lenders. It is still a good time to buy!
Five reasons today’s housing market is anything but normal
Geoff went over the stats for the following categories:
Mortgage rates
Annual home price appreciation
Monthly inventory of homes for sale i
Days on market
Average number of offers received on closed sales
According to George Ratiu, Senior Economist at Realtor.com,
“I expect an unusually busy fall season. Sellers are putting homes on the market. Normally, this activity happens early in the spring.”
National Housing Market Stats
Year-over-year numbers for existing home sales, average home sales price, and months supply of inventory support a softening of the market.
“Housekeeping” Items:
The September 2021 Housing Market Update Panel
Geoff introduced the panel of experts. They are Carol Buchanan, Associate Real Estate Broker, Green Team New York Realty; Rob Lang, Realtor, with At Home Kansas, and Laura Moritz, Classic Mortgage. Panel members discussed their take on the above information, based on their experiences and what they are seeing in their businesses.
To view the entire presentation and panel discussion, click here
Whether you’re buying or selling – today’s housing market has plenty of good news to go around.
Buyers can take advantage of today’s mortgage rates to escape rising rents and keep monthly payments affordable. Sellers can reap the benefits of multiple offers and a fast sale.
If this sounds like good news to you, let’s connect today so you can capitalize on the unique opportunity you have in today’s market.
Maybe with the leverage you currently have, you can negotiate a deal that will allow you to make the move of your dreams. What’s your home’s value?
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