Housing Market News • March 18, 2020

March 2020 Housing Market Update

by Nicole McCormick

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Note

Things are happening rapidly. Just three days after the March 2020 Housing Market Update on the 17th, everything changed. On March 20 Governor Cuomo issued the New York State on PAUSE Executive Order. One day later, Governor Murphy announced a Statewide Stay at Home Order for New Jersey. And even though our physical offices are closed, Green Team Realty sales associates and support staff are all working remotely.

March 2020 Housing Market Update

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the webinar. He began by discussing last month’s Housing Market Update. One month ago on the February 2020 HMU, things were looking great. The stock market was nearing all-time highs. One month later the coronavirus had set in. Now everything is different.

We are in historical times now. And the panel will try to break it apart and make some sense of what’s happening. The panel includes a mortgage expert and financial expert, in addition to sales associates from Green Team New Jersey Realty and Green Team New York Realty.

Silver Linings

Mortgage rates are extremely low and there are lots of good programs that help people buy a home. Looking at rates from 2016 to today, they are now historically low. Things are fluid now. The Central Bank is in flux, determining 10 year treasure rate. There is a correlation between the treasury rates and 30 year mortgage rates, but they are not one and the same. Laura Moritz, the panel’s mortgage professional, reiterated that. The treasury rates that you hear about on the news do not translate to mortgage rates. Reach out to your mortgage professional to find out what the rates are for your current financial situation.

Some Other Positives

According to ShowingTime, at the start of the year there was a 20.2% increase in showings. 2020 was off to a great start. Geoff sees this as a positive. After we get through this tough period of time these numbers should bode well.

A Mixed Bag

Crude prices present a mixed bag. We are experiencing the single largest decline in the history of crude oil prices. This is due to an oil-price clash between Saudi Arabia and Russia. On the positive side, we’re potentially paying less at the pump and to heat our homes. On the negative side, those companies involved in the oil industry stand a chance of going out of business, defaulting and impacting banks that financed their operations. Without banks lending money, the housing market cannot move forward.

The Coronavirus and the Real Estate Market

The CDC and the White House, during their press briefing, seemed to indicate that this would not be over anytime soon. A lot of school districts, local business leaders, politicians may be saying “For the next few weeks this is going to happen.” However, Geoff’s sense from the briefing was that this halt of movement will actually be prolonged until this virus is truly contained.

Therefore, we need to find ways to operate responsibly and respectfully, to keep the housing market in check and not experience a complete crash.

Impact on Stock Market

Just a month ago the Dow Industrial Average was wavering between an incredible 29,000 and 30,000. The take-away at that time was that 2020 was going to be a great year, as long as there wasn’t a major global crisis. During the February Housing Market Update, Geoff mentioned that he thought the coronavirus might become that global crisis. Within a few days of that the virus began to quickly spread globally. The day before the March 2020 Housing Market Update, the Dow dropped 3,000, its worst day since 1987. And now, the global economy is at a standstill.

A Commercial Real Estate Bubble?

One thing that not many people are talking about yet is the Commercial Real Estate Bubble. Carl Icahn, a billionaire investor, is betting on the commercial real estate market being in a bubble and about to crumble. That is a big deal as banks are heavily involved in commercial real estate and lending. This is a situation we’ll be keeping an eye on.

Local Housing Market Stats

Orange County

Units sold was lower than preceding years for the month of February, while it had been higher during January. That kind of fluctuation is not uncommon and when averaged out, it’s right in the mix. Sales prices came out way ahead of previous years, much the result of low inventory. Ask to sold ratio is still at a very high percentage. That means sellers on average are only negotiating 3% off their last asking price. Days on market has gone up a little, which generally means a slowing of the market. At this pre-coronavirus stage, there were some indications that the market was slowing a little.

Sussex County

Units sold in Sussex County were a mixed bag. Not quite as high as 2018, but a little higher than 2019. Average price is up, and ask to sold ratio is at 97%, As in Orange County, days on market is going up, again indicating a slowing in the market.

As Real Estate Professionals, what can we do during this crisis?

Whether you’re a home owner, potential buyer or realtor, we all need to take this seriously. Geoff mentioned that one of the doctors on the coronavirus news briefing on March 16 said that this is all about the Greatest Generation. Many of the people who are dying from the coronavirus are from the World War II generation. And we owe it to them to try to safeguard their health. We have to make sure we’re doing the right thing.

We have to make sure we’re watching the WHO and CDC guidelines and operating within those confines. Some countries are shutting down, others are not. Geoff’s take away is no more group meetings. If you are having symptoms, then you and your household must self-quarantine. If you’re a real estate agent and you have symptoms, take it seriously. Do not show homes, do not pretend you’re asymptomatic.

For those sales agents who do not have symptoms and have not been exposed to the virus, Geoff recommended the following. Tell sellers who might be concerned about buyers coming into their homes that we will do personal showings and greet the potential buyer and buyer’s agent at the door. Make judgment call if you think they might be ill. Walk them through the home, opening doors, closets, etc., then wipe them down before leaving.

Video tours provide a good alternative, if necessary. Buyers are never physically in the property. The sales associate, with boots on the ground, walks them through, using video conferencing.

Before opening the discussion up to the panel, Geoff had one more thing to say… WE WILL PREVAIL!

Housekeeping items

Meet our Panel

From left to right, Laura Moritz, Clasic Mortgage; Ken Ford, Warwick Valley Financial Advisors

From left to right, Kristi Anderson, Green Team New Jersey Realty, Keren Gonen, Green Team New Jersey Realty, Angela Murphy, Green Team New York Realty

Discussion

Looking for “boots on the ground,” Geoff first asked the sales associates what was happening with ShowingTime. Were people continuing to want to see homes, were they cancelling? Kristi stated that she was still getting lots of showings on her properties. Personally she showed 8 different prospects homes over the weekend. It’s very busy still at this point. Keren had two cancellations over the weekend, then got calls from a brand new client she showed homes to. And just the day before she showed one client eight properties. Angela agreed that not only are people viewing homes, they’re purchasing homes. Six out of ten homes she had showed to buyers had accepted offers within a week. Kristi added that she had two properties go to contract this day.

Geoff stated it’s interesting that the housing market in total – sales, exchange of real property, renovations, maintenance, etc. roughly equates to almost 20% to 25% of national GDP. It is a major force, economically speaking. His hope is that the housing market will stay relatively healthy during all this. If we do go into recession, it may not be that deep and that bad. He asked Ken for his opinion on this.

Are we heading towards a recession?

Ken first talked about the history of recessions. He said this is the longest period that the US has gone without a recession. The last was 2008/2009, the period of the great financial crisis. And we’ve never gone a decade without one. Going back 150 years of data, we’ve had one or two recessions each decade. Recessions can be healthy, weeding out the excesses of economic expansion. Our economic expansion has been built on more debt, more credit, low interest rates and the Federal Reserve pumping money into the economy. The saying goes, the bigger the boom, the bigger the bust. And the last ten years have been the biggest boom he’s ever seen.

If liquidity and the financial markets seize up like they did in 2008, then we are going to have a recession. The Fed dropped the interest rate to 0%, providing lots of liquidity. They’re trying not to repeat 2008, but Ken is not sure they’ll be able to do it. We don’t have any stimulus that can jump start the economy. Plus we have a trillion dollar deficit, so where do we go from there? If we start losing confidence in the market, there will be a problem. Greed and fear often drive decisions. However, he said if you know how to value assets and have the capital there will be some great investment opportunities going forward. And Ken does believe that we’re headed for a recession, with everything shutting down, people working from home, unable to go to stores, restaurants, etc.. It’s just a question of how bad the recession will be.

From the lender’s perspective

Geoff asked Laura for her thoughts. She reiterated what Geoff had said. We’ve survived bad times before. And, unlike the big cities, a lot of people are looking to move to less densely populated areas. Our proximity and distance from major cities are important factors. From a lender’s perspective, she had four accepted offers the day before. She does see buyers putting offers in, and she had three closings this week. On the other hand, she does see evidence of the banks tightening up. Putting down 3% or 0% may not be feasible. Property values may be depreciating in the short term, larger down payments may be required. People still need a roof over their heads, so it’s different than the commercial market that Geoff described before.

Laura said that she’s been inundated with calls from people wanting to refinance they’re mortgages. She closed ten last month. However, right now banks do not want to refinance mortgages and are pricing them accordingly. They don’t want to compromise their portfolios. If you want to refinance, you may have to hold on. Geoff said that one of the strengths, compared to 2008, is the level of equity in homes, in general. A lot of households don’t have a mortgage, and a lot have a pretty low loan to value ratio. He hopes that the housing market, which caused the 2008 financial collapse, is now carrying the U.S. economy. We’ve been in a boom compared to the rest of the world.

Can a strong housing market make a recession not hurt as much as last one?

Geoff asked if it’s fair to say that the U.S. housing market might actually make this recession not hurt as much as the last time?

Ken replied that he was looking at something that was the best indicator of valuation of residential housing. The Case-Shiller Index shows that with real estate in Warwick, you can’t buy the same house in Greenwich, CT. You can’t buy the same square footage, etc. The denominator is the income of the town you live in; the value of real estate divided by the average income. It is higher than 2007/2008. We have a higher valuation than what they deemed to be a housing bubble.

Geoff believes low mortgage rates and low inventory, providing supply and demand, has driven real estate value up. He believes there is still so much demand, without the supply. Ken said if we wind up with inflation, mortgage rates will go up. Income inequality is a major problem. Interest rates drive the pricing power of all assets.

Impact of the job market

Geoff said it will all boil down to people having jobs and having confidence to buy a home. The job market is another interesting discussion. The number of layoffs that might occur during this halting of movement will be of interest. He hopes that companies will hang on to cash flow to keep their employees on. He said that is what they’re doing at Green Team. Everyone is working remotely, and they haven’t dialed back on staff. They’re trying to do more with what they have and hope other businesses do the same.

Ken said it all comes back to the stock market. The biggest cost of any corporation is the employees. If stock plummets and earnings go down, the CEO or CFO of major corporations will normally cut employees. Decision makers start laying people off when revenue and earnings go down. As financial planner he tells people to have emergency savings, just in case they are laid off from their jobs.

Wrapping it up

Geoff thanked everyone for their participation. The take-away is, if you’re a seller worried about putting your home on the market because of what is going on, for market reasons get your home on the market now. The market is still very robust, as Kristi, Keren and Angela had stated. We don’t know what the future holds, so why wait? If you’re concerned for health reasons, that is understandable. There might be ways around that, as well. He suggested talking to a Green Team realtor, such as Kristi Anderson, Keren Gonen or Angela Murphy. Regardless, this is what realtors do… find ways to make it happen. For buyers, there may be some unique opportunities.

We have no choice but to keep going. Keren added that she listed a house on Saturday and the next day had three full-priced offers. Good houses are selling. Have trust that we can get this done for you.

Laura added, with everyone staying together, being with their families, they’ll re-evaluate priorities. And what is the heart of the family? Their home. Extended families may blend, people will find comfort in their homes. She feels in that regard, this will be good in our market.

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Buying a home • March 17, 2020

Two Big Myths in the Homebuying Process

by Better Homes and Gardens Green Team

The 2020 Millennial Home Buyer Report shows how this generation is not really any different from previous ones when it comes to homeownership goals:

“The majority of millennials not only want to own a home, but 84% of millennials in 2019 considered it a major part of the American Dream.”

Unfortunately, the myths surrounding the barriers to homeownership – especially those related to down payments and FICO® scores – might be keeping many buyers out of the arena. The piece also reveals:

“Millennials have to navigate a lot of obstacles to be able to own a home. According to our 2020 survey, saving for a down payment is the biggest barrier for 50% of millennials.”

Millennial or not, unpacking two of the biggest myths that may be standing in the way of homeownership among all generations is a great place to start the debunking process.

Myth #1: “I Need a 20% Down Payment”

Many buyers often overestimate what they need to qualify for a home loan. According to the same article:

“A down payment of 20% for a home of that price [$210,000] would be about $42,000; only about 30% of the millennials in our survey have enough in savings to cover that, not to mention the additional closing costs.”

While many potential buyers still think they need to put at least 20% down for the home of their dreams, they often don’t realize how many assistance programs are available with as little as 3% down. With a bit of research, many renters may be able to enter the housing market sooner than they ever imagined.

Myth #2: “I Need a 780 FICO® Score or Higher”

In addition to down payments, buyers are also often confused about the FICO® score it takes to qualify for a mortgage, believing they need a credit score of 780 or higher.

Ellie Mae’s latest Origination Insight Report, which focuses on recently closed (approved) loans, shows the truth is, over 50% of approved loans were granted with a FICO® score below 750 (see graph below):Even today, many of the myths of the homebuying process are unfortunately keeping plenty of motivated buyers on the sidelines. In reality, it really doesn’t have to be that way.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying a home, you may have more options than you think. Let’s connect to answer your questions and help you determine your next steps.

Agency News and Awards • March 15, 2020

Green Team 2019 Awards Ceremony Looks Back at Momentous Year

by Nicole McCormick

Agents and staff of Green Team Realty gathered together on January 17 for their 2019 Award Ceremony. Warwick Valley Country Club was the perfect place to celebrate a year that was momentous in many ways.

2019 – A Year to Remember

According to Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, the “Green Team 2019 Awards Ceremony is all about appreciation for our Sales Associates. They are the ones out there in the field doing the hard work of listing and selling homes. This is a tough business that puts many demands on their time and resources. The Green Team Award Ceremony is a way to say thank you, highlight their achievements, and get them ready for another busy year.”

Geoff welcomed everyone and outlined some of the year’s milestones. Once again, through dedication, hard work, support, creative marketing, and consistent training programs, many Green Team Sales Associates saw their businesses grow.

Green Team #1 In Warwick and Vernon for Sales Volume and Units Sold

It was with great pride that Geoff announced Green Team was #1 in Warwick and Vernon. Green Team New York Realty (“GTNYR”) was #1 in Warwick for sales volume and units sold. Furthermore, Green Team New Jersey Realty (“GTNJR”) was #1 in Vernon for sales volume and units sold for the second year. Both did well in their respective counties, too. GTNYR was #8 out of 385 real estate offices in Orange County. And they were #9 out of 385 in terms of units sold. GTNJR was #8 out of 388 in terms of sales volume in Sussex County. And it was #6 out of 388 in terms of units sold.

Award Presentations

Geoff believes in acknowledging and rewarding both growth and achievement. And what makes the award presentations so special is the support and pride that the whole Green Team family shows to the recipients. This year Green Team Realty had a special presenter. Geoff’s wife, Laura, announced the winners in each category. She was aided by Donna Roberts, Green Team’s Agent Service Manager for the Vernon office, and event planner extraordinaire.

MVP Award

Jennifer DiCostanzo received the MVP Award for over $12 Million in sales for 2019. Jen, the first and only recipient of this award, also achieved the MVP in 2017 for over $10 Million in sales. Geoff Green had this to say about Jennifer: “While everyone can stand back and marvel at Jennifer’s accomplishments, what truly is the reason for her success is her work ethic. No one takes their business more seriously than Jennifer. She is a true professional in every sense of the word, and she works hard for everything she receives. There is no doubt that Jennifer will be at the top of Orange County, NY Real Estate Sales Associate production charts for many years to come.”

Yearly Sales Leaders

GTNJR’s team of Charles Nagy and Ted Van Laar received the Yearly Sales Leader Award for the second year in a row

And Jennifer DiCostanzo received GTNYR’S Yearly Sales Leader award for the fourth year in a row.

President’s Club

In 2018 a new level of achievement was introduced. The President’s Club Award is given to those sales associates achieving between $5 and $10 Million in Sales Volume. For 2019, recipients of the award were, from left to right: Charles Nagy, Keren Gonen, and Ted Van Laar of Green Team New Jersey Realty. And Vikki Garby, Nancy Sardo, and Dean Diltz of Green Team New York Realty.

Captain’s Club

This established award is given to those who do $3 to $5 Million in Sales Volume. From left to right, recipients are Kristi Anderson, Heidi Hyland, Alison Miller, and Barbara Tesa of Green Team New Jersey Realty. And from Green Team New York Realty we have Tammy Scotto, Lucyann Tinnirello, Kristine Many, Angela Murphy, Carol Buchanan, and Toni Vogel. Not pictured is Chris Kimiecik.

Honorable Mention

This category was created in 2018 to acknowledge those Sales Associates who had $1.5 to $3 Million in Sales Volume. Recipients of this award, from left to right are Ann Nussberger and Cathie Witte of Green Team New Jersey Realty. Not pictured: Kimberly Lasalandra. From Green Team New York Realty are Pip Klein, June Cosgrove-Hays, Walter Ross, Tiffany Megna, Tom Folino, and Jacque Kraszewski. Denise Schmidt was given the award posthumously, with the certificate accepted by her daughter, Dana. Not pictured: Guillermina “GIdget” Tavares, Kim Lesley, and Linda VandeWeert.

The Momentum Builder Award

Every year Geoff Green selects a sales associate who has demonstrated hard work and determination while overcoming obstacles. Someone who has come through a tough spot in life and turned challenges into great success; not just in real estate but in life. A person who shows no signs of going backward. Because it’s all about building momentum towards a brighter future. This year’s Momentum Builder was Denise Schmidt, and there was not a dry eye in the house when Denise’s daughter, Dana came up to receive the award on her mother’s behalf.

Denise passed away suddenly in 2019, leaving family, friends, and co-workers in shock. She was much loved and is missed by all. Dana spoke movingly about Denise and her legacy. As a loving, hardworking single mom, Denise did whatever it took to provide for her family. In addition to being a sales associate with Green Team New York Realty, she was also a bus driver for the Warwick Valley Central School District.

The People’s Choice Awards

The winners of these awards are selected by their peers.

Citizen Of The Year

Recipients of this award are nominated by their co-workers. Both have made outstanding contributions to our local communities. This is the fourth year in a row that Jen DiCostanzo has been named Citizen of the Year by Green Team New York Realty. Jen originated Light Up the Holidays for Green Team to raise funds for local charities. The program evolved into Team Up for Hope, an initiative to raise funds and awareness of local organizations working in the fields of mental health, substance abuse prevention, and suicide prevention.

Keren Gonen has been named Citizen of the Year by her peers at Green Team New Jersey Realty for the third year. Keren has been instrumental in raising funds for local charities. She is also extremely active in Team Up for Hope.

These women truly believe in giving back to the community and put in the time, effort, and commitment to make things happen.

Team Player Award

Recipients of this award are deemed the most reliable, positive and dependable. Furthermore, they work well with others and have great problem-solving skills. It is no coincidence that the award went to the Agent Service Managers of each office. Andrea Wynn was voted Team Player by her peers in the Warwick office. And Donna Roberts was voted Team Player by her co-workers in Vernon.

In addition to her position as ASM of the Vernon, NJ office, Donna is a talented Event Planner and Coordinator. Her skill was evident in the many details of the Award Ceremony on display.

A Special Thank You To Our Sponsors

The event’s sponsors helped transform the Awards Ceremony into an awards Celebration!

Amy Green, VP of Mortgage Lending at Guaranteed Rate, was a Diamond Sponsor. Geoff Green watched with pride as his sister, Amy, addressed the gathering. Douglas R. Stage, Esq..of Stage Law Firm, LLP (formerly Stage & Nathans) was a Platinum Sponsor. And Gold Sponsors were: Joe Mayers of Septic Experts, LLC; David Willner, Pillar to Post Home Inspections; Kenneth Flood, Quest Financial Services; Jamie Fiscus, Allied Title, LLC, and Frank Frasco, Home Inspection LLC. As is usually the case when real estate professionals get together, there is “shop talk.” The Awards Ceremony provided an opportunity for Green Team Sales Associates to discuss local market conditions and community with sponsoring companies.

There was also the opportunity to dance! DJ Freddie Z kept the crowd entertained and energized. And George Tsakanias and Klaus-Peter

However, there was something else evident in the room. There was a sense that this was a TEAM. And as members of a team, there was pride, support, friendship, and respect for each other’s accomplishments. What’s more, you could tell that plans, goals, and dreams were beginning to take shape and would see the members of the Green Team through the coming year.

Selling a Home • March 11, 2020

Equity Gain Growing in Nearly Every State

by Better Homes and Gardens Green Team

Rising home prices have been in the news a lot lately, and much of the focus is on whether they’re accelerating too quickly and how sustainable the growth in prices really is. One of the often-overlooked benefits of rising prices, however, is the impact they have on a homeowner’s equity position.

Home equity is defined as the difference between a home’s fair market value and the outstanding balance of all liens on the property. While homeowners pay down their mortgages, the amount of equity they have in their homes climbs each time the value increases.

Today, the number of homeowners that currently have significant equity in their homes is growing. According to the Census Bureau, 38% of all homes in the country are mortgage-free. In a home equity study, ATTOM Data Solutions revealed that of the 54.5 million homes with a mortgage, 26.7% of them have at least 50% equity. That number has been increasing over the last eight years.

CoreLogic also notes:

“…the average homeowner gained approximately $5,300 in equity during the past year.”

The map below shows a breakdown of the increasing equity gain across the country, painting a clear picture that home equity is growing in nearly every state.

Bottom Line

This may be the year to take advantage of your home equity by applying it forward, either as you downsize or as you move up to a new home.

Want to see what your home is worth? Use our quick and easy Home Value Estimator.

Buying a home • March 11, 2020

New Homes Coming to the Housing Market This Year

by Better Homes and Gardens Green Team

The number of building permits issued for single-family homes is the best indicator of how many newly built homes will begin to come to market over the next few months. According to the latest U.S. Census Bureau and U.S. Department of Housing & Urban Development Residential Construction Report, the number of building permits issued in January was 1,551,000. This is a 9.2% increase from December.

How will this impact buyers?

New inventory means more options. Lawrence Yun, Chief Economist at the National Association of Realtors (NAR), explained how this is good news for the housing market – especially for those looking to buy:

“More construction will mean more housing inventory for consumers in the later months of this year…Spring months could still be quite tough for buyers since it takes time to convert housing starts into actual housing completions.”

How will this impact sellers?

More inventory means more competition. Yun continues to say:

“As trade-up buyers move into these newly completed homes in the near future, their existing homes will be released onto the market.”

Today, because of the tremendous lack of inventory, a seller can potentially anticipate:

A great sale price on their house as buyers engage in potential bidding wars.
A quick sale as buyers have little inventory to choose from.
Fewer hassles as buyers want to smoothly secure a contract.

Bottom Line

If you’re considering selling your house, you’ll want to list sooner rather than later. This way, you’ll get ahead of this new competition coming to market and ensure the most attention toward your listing and the best price for your house.

Buying a home • March 11, 2020

Confidence Is the Key to Success for Young Homebuyers

by Better Homes and Gardens Green Team

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Buying your first home can seem overwhelming. Thankfully, there’s a lot of great information out there to help you feel more confident as you learn about the process. For those in younger generations who aspire to buy, here are three things to consider sooner rather than later in your journey:

1. Understand What it Takes to Purchase a Home

Overall, Millennials make up the largest group of homebuyers in today’s real estate market, and Gen Z is not too far behind. A recent study shared by Freddie Mac shows, however, that Generation Z isn’t as confident in the homebuying process as Millennials. The best thing potential young buyers can do is understand what it takes to buy a home. Learn as much as you can about the mortgage process, down payment options, and the overall steps to take along the way.

2. Realize Your Opportunity to Build Wealth

Homeownership allows you the chance to put a small portion of the home’s value down when you buy, and then watch your appreciation grow on the full value of the home – not just on the down payment. It’s one of the best investments you can make, and a form of ‘forced savings’ working in your favor over time. The added bonus? You get to live there, too.

3. Find Someone You Trust to Help You Through the Process

Having someone you trust to guide you through this process is invaluable. Finding a local real estate expert to help you navigate through the transaction and feel more confident as you make important decisions could be the best choice you make.

For Millennials and Gen Z’ers thinking about buying, today’s historically low interest ratescombined with the outlook for future home appreciation is a big win. This means whatever you buy today, you’ll be bragging about 10 years from now. You can feel confident about that!

Bottom Line

If you’re ready, buying your first home sooner rather than later is one of the best decisions you can make. But there are many things to consider before taking that step, so let’s work together to help you confidently navigate the full journey.

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Housing Market News • March 11, 2020

Impact of the Coronavirus on the U.S. Housing Market

by Better Homes and Gardens Green Team

The Coronavirus (COVID-19) has caused massive global uncertainty, including a U.S. stock market correction no one could have seen coming. While much of the news has been about the effect on various markets, let’s also acknowledge the true impact it continues to have on lives and families around the world.

With all this uncertainty, how do you make powerful and confident decisions in regard to your real estate plans?

The National Association of Realtors (NAR) anticipates:

“At the very least, the coronavirus could cause some people to put home sales on hold.”

While this is an understandable approach, it is important to balance that with how it may end up costing you in the long run. If you’re considering buying or selling a home, it is key to educate yourself so that you can take thoughtful and intentional next steps for your future.

For example, when there’s fear in the world, we see lower mortgage interest rates as investors flee stocks for the safety of U.S. bonds. This connection should be considered when making real estate decisions.

According to the National Association of Home Builders (NAHB):

“The Fed’s action was expected but perhaps not to this degree and timing. And the policy change was consistent with recent declines for interest rates in the bond market. These declines should push mortgage interest rates closer to a low 3% average for the 30-year fixed rate mortgage.”

This is exactly what we’re experiencing right now as mortgage interest rates hover at the lowest levels in the history of the housing market.

Bottom Line

The full impact of the Coronavirus is still not yet known. It is in times like these that working with an informed and educated real estate professional can make all the difference in the world.

Contact one of our agents today!

See our full list of available properties!

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Agency News and Awards • March 7, 2020

Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 2019 Circle of Excellence Award Recipients

by Nicole McCormick

There was a lot to celebrate at the NJ Realtors Awards luncheon on March 4, 2020. New Jersey Realtors® Circle of Excellence® Sales Award® recognizes members who have demonstrated excellence in salesmanship. And, just as in years past, several members of Green Team New Jersey Realty were recognized.

GTNJR Award Recipients

Green Team New Jersey Realty’s Circle of Excellence Award Recipients were all smiles as they accepted their awards.

Silver

Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar received Silver Awards for $6.5 million and 20 units minimum. This is not Charlie and Ted’s first time receiving Circle of Excellence Awards. Since 2014 they have been in the Circle of Excellence multiple times. And since the creation of Green Team New Jersey Realty, this is their 3rd consecutive year.

Bronze

Further, receiving the Bronze Award for $2.5 million and 15 units minimum, were: Barbara Tesa, Kristi Anderson, Keren Gonen, Alison Miller, and Heidi Hyland. Unfortunately, Heidi was unable to attend the awards luncheon, but her co-workers/friends made sure that she received her award.

A History of Achievement

Most of these Sales Associates from Green Team New Jersey Realty have received Circle of Excellence Awards in the past. In addition, this group of high achievers received additional awards at Green Team Realty’s 2019 Awards Ceremony. Charles Nagy, Ted Van Laar and Karen Gonen received the President’s Club Award. That was given for achieving a sales volume of $5 to $10 Million. And the team of Charlie and Ted was awarded Yearly Sales Leader. Alison Miller, Barbara Tesa, Heidi Hyland and Kristi Anderson received the Captain’s Club Award, for $3 to $5 Million in sales volume. Ann Nussberger and Cathie Witte, also shown in the photo below, received Honorable Mention for sales of $1.5 to $3 Million. It’s not surprising that Green Team New Jersey Realty is #1 in Vernon. And this is the result of both sales volume and units sold.

Pride at the Green Team New Jersey Realty Table

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, and Amy Green, Vice President of Mortgage Lending, Guaranteed Rate, celebrated with the award recipients. And the pride they took in the Circle of Excellence award recipients was obvious. This was an occasion to celebrate achievement – and friendship. A true circle of excellence.

Agency News and Awards • March 2, 2020

Vikki Garby Featured in Top Agent Magazine

by Nicole McCormick

Vikki Garby of Green Team New York Realty will be featured in Top Agent Magazine in the April 20, 2020 National and International issues. This premier real estate magazine has been presenting producing, accomplished professionals in the real estate industry for almost 20 years. Candidate evaluations are based on production, professionalism, industry and community involvement.

Vikki’s Top Agent Profile

Vikki began her real estate career back in 2005, investing in properties with her husband. At the time she was working in the finance industry. However, after moving back to her hometown of Warwick, she made the transition to full-time real estate agent. Vikki serves residential and commercial clients in Orange County, NY. Her business is almost exclusively repeat and referral clients. Additionally, she often works with investors to purchase multiple properties. Her prior finance experience is quite useful, especially when it comes to commercial transactions. Vikki establishes credibility with her clients through honesty, transparency and straightforward communication.

Vikki’s approach to listing properties

Each property is approached individually. And each campaign is tailored accordingly. Every listing is accompanied by professional photography and immersive documentation. However, commercial and residential properties may require alternative marketing techniques. All properties have online exposure, which can result in buyers. In 2019, Vikki closed over $8.8 million in sales volume. Further, that is based on average property prices ranging from $300,000 to $500,000.

The importance of community

Vikki believes in giving back to her community. She supports and participates in the local Educational Foundation and is President of the Booster Club for her son’s crew team. Furthermore, she contributes to the local high school’s Career Development Program. There Vikki helps with the Job Shadow Program and annual Career Fair. Free time is for spending with her family.

Looking towards the future

Vikki plans on keeping the growth of her real estate business steady. And she looks forward to expanding her presence in the local commercial market. Most importantly, she wants to keep helping people achieve their real estate goals. Because, according to Vikki, “It’s not about the house or the building itself. A home is so much more than four walls and my goal is for my clients to be happy long after they close.”

Housing Market News • February 22, 2020

February 2020 Housing Market Update

by Nicole McCormick

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the February 2020 Housing Market Update held on Tuesday, February 18 at 2 p.m.. Topics to be discussed include the coronavirus and its potential impact, as well as the upcoming elections and local stats. If you missed the webinar, click here to watch it now.

National Stats

Recession Talk

The above graphic reflects the views of economists surveyed by the Wall Street Journal. In 2018, 67% of economists thought that by the end of 2020 there would be a recession. As early as October of 2019, that number was 34.2%. However, in January of 2020, that number was down to 14.3%.The economy seems to be outpacing the expectations of many who are watching a variety of analytics very closely.

Shrinking supply, rising prices

There is no question that the housing market did end red-hot in 2019.. Prices are continuing to rise, inventory is still low. While builders are more optimistic, they are still not meeting demand. Later, Geoff and David Willner, a home inspector, will be sharing thoughts on why more new construction houses aren’t happening.

2019 Home Sales in every region

In 2019 existing home sales were increasing year-over-year in every region. There was also an increase in new construction in 2019 over 2017 and 2018. Everything was increasing throughout 2019, and is expected to continue through 2020.

Inventory shrinking

Inventory continues to be a problem. This is the lowest level of inventory in at least three decades. The months inventory of homes for sales is 3 months. A normal market is 6 months. a buyer’s market is 9 months. A seller’s market is below 6 months. There is nothing to indicate that this number will increase. It may actually decrease. The only thing that could possible turn that around would be new construction picking up in big ways. However, it is not that easy to bring new houses online with zoning ordinances, etc.

Strong Pricing

Back in the summer of 2018 we started to see different numbers and wondered if the market would rebound. It has rebounded strongly and price increases are anticipated for 2020. Every state is labeled in blue, indicating prices increasing. Corologic and other companies are predicting price appreciation.

The economy – where is it headed?

According to Jay Bryson, chief economist for Wells Fargo Economics Group, the economy is growing well and the expansion still has room to run. While slowing down a little, the economy is not showing signs of a recession. There is growth of approximately 2.1%. Unemployment rates are steady. We’re at a relatively low rate of inflation. Job growth is good. It does not seem as though anything is poised enough to stop the growth.

Local Stats

Units Sold

2020 numbers for January show units sold at its highest number in the last five years.

Average Sales Price

Average Sales Price is way up. January is showing a remarkable jump. It will be interesting to see how this plays out the rest of the year.

Ask-to-Sold Ratio

This is the last asking price versus what the property sold for. Again, the number is high. Sellers are only having to negotiate about 2% off the asking price. These are strong numbers. And they mean that buyers don’t have too much leverage in this market.

Days on Market

The lower the number of days, the stronger the seller’s market it is. There has been a downward trend, year-over-year, and we’re starting 2020 at the same low mark as 2019. This is a strong number.

Units Sold

Units sold is same number as 2017. While not starting out at the highest level, it is still a pretty good level for Sussex County.

Average Price

Average price is up over the last five years, so that’s a good sign for people looking to sell their homes in Sussex County.

Ask-to-Sold Ratio

Days on Market

Again, this is the lowest level in five years in Sussex County. Things are going quickly.

Housekeeping Items

Join us for the next Housing Market Update, Tuesday March 17 (St. Patrick’s Day) at 2 p.m. Stay informed. Sign up for our Housing Market Updates at: GreenTeamRealty.com/HMU.

Thanks to our sponsor, REALLY, the Real Estate Referral Community. REALLY is where Professionals who serve the Real Estate Industry can connect, communicate, and securely exchange referrals with speed and ease. The best part? No fees on commissions exchanged between Agents. Join for free at ReallyHQ.com

Panel Discussion

Panelists were Geoff Green, President, Green Team Realty and Dave Willner, Pillar to Post Home Inspections. Before starting off the discussion, Geoff shared a few more stats. According to new stats released by the National Association of Home Builders the confidence index is as high as it’s been since 2008. As we had discussed in the summer of 2018, there was a dip in confidence in home builders. It’s now at its highest in 12 years. Housing starts are at the highest level since 2014.

Geoff introduced Dave Willner and began the discussion with:

Do you foresee anything slowing down the 2020 housing market?

The simple answer was “No!” Dave believes that 2020 is going to be a big year. January started off with a big bang. In January 2020 his company reported its highest earnings in three years. The number of inspections are up. They are seeing a niche in the under $500,000 market. Higher-end homes are not moving as quickly as those selling for $500,000 or less.

Geoff agreed that is definitely true for our area. While in some places, such as New York City and certain areas on the West Coast, $500,000 wouldn’t even buy a “fixer-upper.” Dave said that it definitely depends on the market, but that is what they’re finding here. Geoff also agreed that he doesn’t see anything to indicate that 2020 won’t be a big year. However, he does think that there are some interesting things happening economically on a macro scale that everyone should be aware of.

Economics – the Macro and the Micro

How might the coronavirus on the granular level, impact economics? Geoff shared some of the things he’s learned.

In addition to the coronavirus, there is something happening regarding travel. The Boeing 737 Max was grounded last year. That has had a major impact on the airline industry, which further impacts overall travel spending. There is a “double whammy” happening within the travel industry. Further, travel is a significant segment of the U.S. economy; not something to be dismissed. A micro example would be Corning in Upstate New York. A lot of their revenue is received from people traveling from New York City up to Niagara Falls. As it’s a midway point, a lot of international travelers go to the Corning plant to see how glass is manufactured. So many people have traveled there from China that they have tours in Mandarin. Thus, the coronavirus and the Boeing 737 Max have impacted this local economy.

As real estate is local, there could be a locally impacted market while the nation is booming. Those in travel-related economies should keep an eye on these developments. Dave asked if vacation housing in Orange and Sullivan Counties might be affected as a result of these issues. For example, would more people seek a summer retreat? Geoff didn’t think that market would be especially impacted, since much of the tourism in the area is people traveling from other countries. Second homes are more for people in the NYC/metro area who want to get away for a weekend. He doesn’t necessarily see the coronavirus as impacting that end of the travel spectrum. However, the idea is not to be dismissed. It’s an interesting dynamic to keep an eye on.

The Coronavirus and the Impact of Quarantines

Another aspect of the coronavirus is quarantine. China is literally quarantining cities, shutting down transportation, etc. Not only can people not leave their city. They can’t travel. But many also cannot go to work. Stores are being closed, factories shut down and unable to operate. You are now seeing headlines about Apple revising its earnings. They’re saying the supply chain is being affected because much of their manufacturing is done in China. Not only is demand being impacted by the economy in China, which has been affected by the virus. The supply chain is being impacted as well in terms of production. Further, you have to think about commodities. If factories are not running, you don’t need iron, heavy metals. Commodity prices, such as oil, are dropping.

Globally a lot of things are happening now that many people seem to overlook. Right now, things are good in the United States. However, globally many economies have not been doing so well for the last few years. Hopefully the coronavirus will have reached its peak and begin to dissipate.

The Presidential Election

It will be interesting to see what evolves in this election year. There are candidates who are at the opposite economic spectrum of the Trump administration. And if elected, what would the impact be? It would probably not affect 2020 as the election is not till November. However, needless to say, it’s an issue that should not be dismissed.

Trade agreements with Canada and Mexico and China will also impact the economy. Again, it will be interesting to see the impact of global factors.

Keren Gonen joins the conversation

Kere n Gonen of Green Team New Jer sey Realty joined the panel discussion. Having just arrived from a closing, Geoff filled Keren in on what had been discussed regarding the 2020 market stats. He asked if she agreed with their prediction that 2020 would be a big year. Geoff also talked about inventory pressure and problems. Then he asked what she is seeing now. Keren stated that she’s seeing the same things, and that Spring Market has already started. She’s as busy now as she should be at the end of April. This month alone she has 3 closings. And she’s projecting another 5 closings for next month.

Geoff said that the mild winter might also be a factor. Many people just don’t want to go out and look at homes when it’s raining, snowing, etc. While it has been cold, there has not been a lot of snow to deal with, which helped catapult things. More importantly, interest rates are really low. And that is something that can help offset the high price of homes for some buyers. While the price may be on the high end, it’s what fits the monthly budget that really counts. If that low rate can be locked in buyers can set themselves up for success as home owners.

Wrapping it up

Geoff asked Dave and Keren if they could think of anything that might stop this market from churning as fast as they think it’s going to in 2020. Dave replied it’s about managing the inventory out there. It is definitely a limited-inventory market, and the good deals have been had. Dave has seen a strong influx of people coming up to more rural communities from the city. That’s where many of the buyers are coming from, looking to get out of renter-ship. As long as interest rates stay low, people will continue to buy.

According to Geoff, the Fed is in a holding pattern, neither raising or lowering the federal funds rate that they use to manipulate the economy. It’s interesting that in the last 10-15 years that lever they had, that once meant so much, has little meaning now. Needless to say, it looks like the Fed will hold in place, which just provides more information to consider.

Home Ownership vs. Renting

Keren added that there are plenty of people renting, even in Sussex County, that could actually afford to be home owners. They would pay less for a mortgage than they pay for rent right now. That’s something important to remember. A lot of renters don’t realize they can afford to be homeowners, so they should get in touch with a mortgage broker to see what their options are. In our area, you can pay $800 in a mortgage payment opposed to $1,200 in rent. It’s important to educate people as to what their options are.

Geoff agreed, saying that many people got caught in the downturn of the market 10 or 12 years ago.To them he says, don’t be afraid. Research. Talk to a mortgage professional to see if your income and credit is where it needs to be, and get in the game. Banks who have been renting homes are starting to sell those homes, leaving renters in the lurch. They can’t find other rentals and are in a bad spot. It’s in their best interest to own a home.

Dave remarked that there has been more of a trend for FHA loans. They are no money down essentially. There are lots of options available. Geoff stated that another great thing for this recovery is that you are not seeing a lot of sub-prime lending. That means this recovery is true.

Contact the panelists

Dave Willner, Pillar to Post Home Inspection, 732-647-5231 or email dave.willner@pillartopost

Keren Gonen, Call or text 551-262-4062