Housing Market News Archives - GreenTeamRealty.com
 
Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying

More and more economists are predicting a recession is imminent as the result of the pullback in the economy caused by COVID-19. According to the National Bureau of Economic Research:

“A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales.”

Bill McBride, the founder of Calculated Risk, believes we are already in a recession:

“With the sudden economic stop, and with many states shutting down by closing down schools, bars and restaurants…my view is the US economy is now in a recession (started in March 2020), and GDP will decline sharply in Q2. The length of the recession will depend on the course of the pandemic.”

How deep will it go?

No one knows for sure. It depends on how long it takes to beat this virus. Goldman Sachsanticipates we will see a difficult first half of the year, but the economy will recover in the second half (see below):Economic Slowdown: What the Experts Are Saying | MyKCMGoldman also projects we’ll have “further strong gains in early 2021.”

This aligns with the projection from Wells Fargo Investment Institute:

“Once the virus infection rate peaks, we expect a recovery to gain momentum into the final quarter of the year and especially into 2021.”

Again, no one knows for sure how long the pandemic will last. The hope is that it will resolve sometime over the next several months. Most agree that when it does, the economy will regain its strength quickly.

*QUARTER 1 DATA FROM GOLDMAN SACHS WAS UPDATED FROM 0% TO -0.2% ON 3/17/20 AFTER THE INITIAL RELEASE.

Bottom Line

This virus is not only impacting the physical health of Americans, but also the financial health of the nation. The sooner we beat it, the sooner our lives will return to normal.

December 2019: The Buyer Stakes Are High Because Inventory Is Low

December 2019: The Buyer Stakes Are High Because Inventory Is Low

The reality of what we’re seeing this month is that homes are selling fast. In today’s strong seller’s market, bidding wars are common and expected with starter or entry-level homes.

In most areas of the country, first-time buyers have been met with fierce competition throughout their homebuying experience. Some have been out-bid multiple times before finally going into contract on a home to call their own.

Right now, inventory is the big challenge. Here’s what we know today:

According to the latest Existing Home Sales Report from the National Association of Realtors (NAR), there is currently a 3.9-month supply of homes for sale, which can drive this kind of hefty buyer competition. Remember, anything less than 6 months of inventory is a seller’s market.

Even though the month’s supply of inventory is not increasing, ironically, the number of homes for sale is. This means homes are coming up for sale, but they’re being sold quickly. The graph below shows the year-over-year change in inventory over the last 12 months.December 2019: The Buyer Stakes Are High Because Inventory Is Low | MyKCMAs depicted above, the percentage of available inventory has fallen for four consecutive months when compared to the previous year.

So, what does this mean? If you’re a buyer, be sure to get pre-approved for a mortgage and be ready to make a competitive offer, so you can move quickly. Chances are, homes high on your wish list are likely going to go fast.

Bottom Line

If you’re thinking of buying a home, make sure you’re taking the right steps at the beginning of the process, so you’re a top contender if you ultimately find yourself in a bidding war. Let’s get together to discuss what you need to do to make your move toward homeownership.

5 Easy Steps to Avoid Overwhelm from Media Overload

5 Easy Steps to Avoid Overwhelm from Media Overload

When someone is thinking about buying or selling a home, they want to be well-informed. They want to make the right decision for themselves and their family. They scour the internet for any information they can find about the housing market.
Today, there is an abundance of information available. It is often conflicting news. It can easily lead to confusion and concern, perhaps even causing a potential buyer or seller to cancel their plans to move altogether. Instead, the best things to do are sit down and take a deep breath.
In a recent article, Jeff Davidson, a recognized speaker on the subject of productivity, explained:
“The pace at which new information arrives will accelerate every day…Too often, the reflex to take action only exacerbates your time-pressure problems. Do not bite off more than you can chew, and acknowledge that often, the wisest response to too much competition for your time and attention is to simply slow down to assess the best way to proceed.”
To that point, here is an easy five-step process to follow if all of this information seems overwhelming:
Calm Down – Don’t let the confusion lead to concern or panic.
Slow Down – As Davidson suggests, just “slow down to assess.”
Think – Remember the reasons you wanted to move in the first place. Are they still important?
Plan – Determine whether or not the new information should change anything. If you need further clarification on some points, reach out to a real estate professional in your area for a better understanding.
Act – After thorough consideration, feel good about your decision, whether you decide to move or not.
Bottom Line
Don’t let the plethora of seemingly conflicting information on the housing market stop you from moving forward with your life. Let’s get together to ensure you get the valuable counsel you need so you can make the right decision for you and your family.

March 2019 Housing Market Update

March 2019 Housing Market Update

Green Team Realty’s March 2019 Housing Market Update was presented live on Facebook Tuesday, March 19 at 2 p.m.  If you were unable to view the webinar live, you can watch at your convenience by clicking here.  Sign up for future updates here.

 

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, gave a breakdown of both national and local statistics:

 

National Statistics

 

 

This is a 3-year comparison, 2017-2019. The later the year, the darker the color.  January shows a decline in 2018 and 2019.  In August, things started to turn in year over year increases.

 

 

The Northeast is still chugging along, though usually the northeast market lags. However, on the whole, pending home sales are down, region by region.

 

 

As far as pricing goes, this is a composite of the top 20 cities in the US. Over the last 10 months and pricing is steadily decreasing. However, it’s more of a soft landing. There is nothing indicative of a “crash.” Historical norms are around 3.6% and we’re around that mark, with 4.2%.

On the mortgage side, here is an average of four entities making projections of where rates will be in 2019. They are projecting that rates will continue to increase, below 5%. Geoff feels this is historically a very low rate.  While some in the mortgage industry are projecting a decline in refinancing, money for the resale and construction markets seem to be in good shape.

Local Statistics

Orange County, New York

 

In the year over year comparisons, we’re at or below the last few years, but still hanging in there. However, we’re not in an increasing market.

 

Last year we were in the red all year long.  While the stats show year over year increases, this was not our highest February.

 

The asked to sold ratio, the last asking price versus what homes are selling for, took a dip in February but it’s easy to see that year over year we continue to see an increase.

Days in market still indicate a hot market, being lower than any of the previous years shown.

 

Sussex County, New Jersey

 

Units sold are down, below 2017 levels.

 

Average price, however, is increasing. We may actually be seeing further increases in price in Sussex, something we didn’t see much of last year.

 

Numbers here are similar to those we saw in Orange County, around 96 to 97%.

 

The numbers indicate this is still a hot market.

 

Pinellas County, FL

This month we’re also taking a look at the local market in Pinellas County, Florida.

 

Year over year stats for January 2019 over 2018 show a wide variation. While the number of closed sales decreased by 13%, prices increased by that same percentage.

ARE SENIOR HOUSEHOLDS REALLY CAUSING HOUSING SHORTAGE?

 

Ali Chamois of Homestead Funding Corp. shared this information with Geoff about the impact of people aging in place. Prior to the Good Times Cohort (those born between 1931 and 1941), people moved out of their houses at a much faster rate.

 

Exhibit 2 breaks down the number of housing units by age group and shows that 115,200 housing units would have been supplied to the market by respondents aged 68 to 75; 379,200 by respondents aged 76 to 80; and 601,500 by respondents aged 81 to 85.

A similar calculation for the War Babies and Baby Boomers estimate that an additional 550,000 homes were held off the market by these cohorts by 2018, as shown in Exhibit 3.

In total, it’s estimated that there were around 1.6 million housing units held off the market by those three cohorts as of 2018. This amounts to 2.1 percent of total owner-occupied housing units in the United States as of 2018.

Meet this month’s panelists:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, is our moderator. Laura Marie of Keller Williams, St. Petersburg, Florida joined the panel as a special guest. Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty, Vikki Garby of Green Team New York Realty and Ali Chamois, Homestead Funding.Corp.who joined the conversation by phone, rounded up the panel.

Geoff opened the discussion by introducing Keren Gonen, who has been a panelist every month. Her feeling has been it’s going to be a strong market in 2019, but that the inventory shortage is still happening; not as many foreclosures, etc.  Geoff asked if she is still in this same mindset?  Keren replied “Absolutely!”  Properties are not being released by banks, who are flipping them themselves. Housing shortage has more to do with number of units going down than buyer demand. Sellers are still sitting on houses, waiting to see how strong the spring market will be.

Vikki Garby joined the conversation, saying much is the same in Orange County. Inventory problem is still out there. Buyers are out there. Properties in good condition, priced right, are going quickly. Investors, experienced flippers and new flippers, are trying to find properties. More REO’s are hitting the market and are going quickly, the ones not being done by the banks. Flippers are out and scooping them out.

Laura Marie saw many similarities with Pinellas County, FL. There were 11 short sales and 31 REOs total for Jan. Ones being sold are not much under market. Still hardcore investors are looking for the right deal. The margins have shrunk… To get ahead of the market you have to get off market. A huge amount of fixer uppers. Investors not wanting to purchase some of these homes because of cost of materials, etc. Pinellas County was developed between 1920 and 1960. Buyers are looking for updated, polished, shiny homes.

Geoff asked Ali if she agreed with the projections for the average 30 year fixed mortgage. Ali brought up that for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rates are based on downpayment and credit scores. These factors impact the rate. Regarding projections, clients ask whether they should lock in rates or hold off… Ali never advises them on that because forecasts and predictions can change due to a variety of causes. Geoff said that Freddie Mac is much tougher now, which may be holding the market steady. There is not a lot of subprime lending. Because not a lot of defaults are happening, credit isn’t tightening up. Ali sees a little loosening up on credit standards.

Regarding Aging in Place, Geoff sees this happening within his own family. Ali stated that overall health is better, support systems are better. People don’t want to leave their homes. The current trend is to provide outpatient services for health care. Per Keren, people are living a lot longer.  It seems that we do need more houses. There are also people moving in with other generations.

Parents, adult children and grandchildren, living as extended families. The US is transforming.  Laura seeing the same thing in Florida.  Downsizing, 55+ communities also allow people to have independence – but less yard care. Vikki said that we have more 2 income families. Grandparents often help with childcare instead of relocating, then kids are taking care of the parents as they age.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR…

Green Team Realty’s Housing Market Updates are sponsored by REALLY – Better, Smarter, Faster. A real estate referral network for agents. Learn more at ReallyHQ.com

NEXT HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: TUESDAY APRIL 16 AT 2PM

Stay informed – Sign up for our Housing Market Updates at GreenTeamHQ.com/HMU

 

 

APRIL COME SHE WILL

APRIL COME SHE WILL

Paul Simon’s beautiful ode to the changing of the seasons seems like the appropriate theme song for this post. April has arrived, and with her come blooming trees and flowers and lush, green lawns. We’re greeted with the songs of birds in the morning, and the chirping of crickets after dark. And we are more than ready to shake off those winter blues and welcome Spring into our lives.

Clean for Spring…

For many, the arrival of spring is synonymous with deep cleaning.  Idreamofclean.net has the ultimate checklist. And, for those who may not dream of clean, check out Popsugar.com’s simpler checklist.

With a clean, fresh canvas, you’re ready to accessorize and make changes that bring the outdoors in. Decoraid.com shares spring decorating trends for 2019. And, while you’re bringing the outdoors in, Housebeautiful.com shares some house plants that can help you get a good night’s sleep.

Take it outside…

As the weather gets warmer, we spend more and more time outdoors. Now is the perfect time to create the outside living space of your dreams. So Housebeautiful.com has ideas to inspire amazing backyard escapes. Furthermore, kids need their own space to escape to. And homebnc.com has some great ideas for play areas.  Furthermore, it’s great when adults and kids can work together on projects for the home.  These DIY projects will enhance your garden while you have fun!  

Celebrate Earth Day…

The first Earth Day celebration took place on April 22, 1970, 49 years ago!  To learn more, click here.

An Earth Day Celebration will be held at the Outdoor Discovery Center at Hudson Highlands Nature Museum in Cornwall on Saturday, April 27, from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Activities are designed for family fun and learning. They include nature play, storytelling and puppetry, interactive games and activities, music, hay rides, a community art project and more. And the celebration kicks off with a Hike-a-Thon at 9 a.m.!

Vernon Earthfest 2019 will take place on Sunday, April 28 from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Heaven Hill Farm and Garden Center. With live music throughout the day, there will also be face painting, gem mining, and a showcase of photography by local high school students and artwork by local elementary students. In addition, presenters include the Delaware Valley Raptor Center, Honeybees and the Environment, Snakes ‘n Scales (and Scary Critters) and Eyes of the Wild (Unusual Animals).  Visit the website for details.

Earth Fest Warwick will be held on Saturday, May 4 and Sunday, May 5. There will be several events going on at Stanley Deming Park. The 3rd Annual Too Good to Toss community swap celebrates re-use, repair, and re-creating!  Treecycle, hosted by local artists and makers, welcomes you to join in hands-on re-purposing and up-cycling, a bike check-up clinic, music, dance, food, information and more!

DIY Projects for Earth Day… and everyday!

Of course everyday is Earth Day, and GoodAirGeeks.com has lots of DIY ideas for projects for adults, kids, schools, community service and more.  And if you’d like some more ideas, there is always Pinterest to provide you with lots of earth-friendly projects.

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