Susan Wynn, Author at GreenTeamRealty.com
 
Are NYC residents moving to the suburbs?

Are NYC residents moving to the suburbs?

Are people really leaving NYC for the suburbs?

Are NYC residents moving to the suburbs? Statistics show how Covid-19 has devastated New York City. The number of people with COVID-19 and the number of deaths is staggering. Social distancing is difficult. There is no doubt that crowded streets, elevators, and often apartments are not conducive to sheltering-in-place. So, are people really leaving NYC for the suburbs? 

According to both local and national news sources, the answer is a resounding “YES!”  The headlines tell the story.

Does COVID-19 have NYC residents moving to the suburbs

National Media

USA Today‘s headline screams, Get me out of here! Americans flee crowded cities amid Covid-19, consider permanent moves.”  According to that article, nearly one-third of Americans are considering moving to less densely populated areas because of Covid-19. On May 8 the New York Times described this phenomenon in “Coronavirus Escape: To the Suburbs.” Then, on May 16 they published “Where New Yorkers Moved to Escape Coronavirus.According to CNBC, Wealthy New Yorkers flee Manhattan for suburbs and beyond.

Local Media

Locally, radio station 101.5 WPDH posted two blogs on this subject. The first, “NYC Residents Expected to Move to Hudson Valley in Droves.” AndSellers market driving Hudson Valley Home Prices Way Up.”  Additionally, Straus News just published the following story in all its local papers for Orange County NY, and Sussex County NJ: “Pandemic-driven house frenzy hits local towns.”

Green Team Realty Sales Associates: Are they seeing NYC residents moving to the suburbs?

Current real estate market conditions and economic trends were major points of discussion during Green Team Realty’s monthly Housing Market Update. We asked several sales associates if they are seeing NYC residents moving to the suburbs as a result of COVID-19.

Green Team New York Realty – Warwick and Orange County, New York

Angela Murphy, Real Estate Salesperson, and Business Development Associate,

I have seen a rise of new buyers coming from all 5 boroughs of the city. Most of my clients want municipals verses septic, well or oil tanks, which has opened up many areas to view in Orange County. The pandemic has definitely pushed them to head north quicker than they might have, otherwise.

Nancy Sardo, Associate Real Estate Broker

I am seeing an influx of highly qualified tenants as well as an above-average amount of new buyers ready to move quicker than before.  We are seeing many more cash buyers, many more full-price offers with less negotiation from a smart buyer. Experienced buyers to the area are more willing to do some elbow grease in order not to hiccup on the deal. Otherwise, they risk the seller moving onto the backup offer. Buyers and people, in general, are serious about the betterment of their surroundings. And, with what we are currently going through, they are now more apt to pay for it.  We are in a seller’s market and here in Warwick NY and Orange County on a whole, there is an exaggerated upswing of interest in our beautiful Hudson Valley.

Jennifer DiCostanzo, Associate Broker

Interest is trending with buyers looking for a home that meets their needs both for lifestyle and working from home. They like the idea of self-sufficient living. Being just 60 miles from NYC makes the lower Hudson Valley, with its pricepoint, very attractive for primary and secondary homes.  Everyone is coming to a realization that home has to meet both work and leisure needs. Also desired are adaptable living spaces. Living through this pandemic has redefined the concept of home for many people. Outdoor space has become a luxury, particularly for City dwellers. However, it’s not just City dwellers who are redefining what “home” means. There are local buyers who are also looking for that change in lifestyle, space and function.

Green Team New Jersey Realty – Vernon and Sussex County, New Jersey

Kristi Anderson, Realtor

I think that many buyers are coming to the Sussex area because we have had much fewer cases of COVID-19 up here. Most of my clients are buying second homes.

Keren GonenReal Estate Salesperson

I am seeing a LOT of NYC buyers. They are CASH mostly and looking to run away. Some are buying a second home, but plenty are moving in this direction to get away from the City completely and realizing the advantages of living in “The Country.” Those buyers have a much larger budget than our “usual” buyers and are looking for updated houses mostly.  They are ready, willing, able and QUALIFIED buyers.  They are all mesmerized by our charm here in Sussex county.
What makes Orange County and Sussex County so desirable to NYC residents?

After months of sheltering in place, many people are reexamining their concept of the ideal home. This pandemic has shown us that we can’t take for granted life as usual. New York City has undergone a drastic transformation. That ideal City life is on pause. Broadway shows, restaurants, boutiques, department stores, museums, vibrant nightlife, closed,   Families living in cramped apartments, worried about catching the virus, long for privacy, more room, areas to work, and space for the kids. Furthermore, they’re looking for outdoor living space. And approximately 60 miles away is the beautiful countryside of Orange and Sussex Counties.

NYC residents are looking for homes that provide lots of room for their family’s needs, including work from home space. Covid-19 has shown us the possibilities that exist in telecommuting. People and businesses are realizing that it may not be necessary for people to go to the office every day.  As noted above, there are also people looking for second homes, so that they have someplace to “escape” to, should another shelter-in-place be required. Even in a seller’s market, they know they can get more house for their money here. Finally, there are unique hamlets, villages, and towns that offer lifestyles and qualities that people have decided are just what they need in this day and age.

 

May 2020 Housing Market Update

May 2020 Housing Market Update

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, welcomed everyone to the May 2020 Housing Market Update. The webinar was held on Tuesday, May 19 at 2 p.m. And, according to Green, “These are interesting times we live in,” to say the least. Geoff shares both national and local stats. Furthermore, he checks in with those who have “boots on the ground.” Sales Associates from Green Team New York Realty and Green Team New Jersey Realty share what’s happening in their respective states and communities. There are different regulations for the real estate industry in New York and New Jersey. Thus, there are differing impacts on what is happening in each state.

If you missed the webinar or would like to view it again, it’s available here:

Meet the Panel

The May 2020 Housing Market Update panel shared their observations, experiences, and expertise in this Covid-19 market. Keren Gonen and Kristi Anderson with Green Team New Jersey Realty talked about Vernon and the Sussex County NJ market. Nancy Sardo and Angela Murphy, with Green Team New York Realty, discussed Warwick and the Orange County NY market. Summer Mangels, Home Loan Consultant with Valley National Bank, shared her experiences with financing and refinancing in a Covid-19 market. Watch the above video to hear what the experts had to say.

Something everyone is talking about is:

When is the economy going to fully recover?

The Chairman of the Federal Reserve recently said that recovery is going to take longer than most people expect. However, several major financial institutions are calling for recovery in the second half of 2020. They include Goldman Sachs, JP Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and Wells Fargo. And, although unemployment numbers are historically high, they are trending down in terms of the number of new filings. As the country starts to reopen, we will hopefully see unemployment numbers go down.

The US Bureau of Labor Statistics provides data on the professions and categories most impacted by unemployment. In our April 2020 Housing Market Update we discussed those categories making up the largest majority of unemployed. Service and Bartending were the biggest category then. That number has come down a little as of May 8. Hopefully, as more and more businesses are able to reopen, people in these industries will be able to return to work.

Impact of Covid-19 to Real Estate Showings in North America

Data from ShowingTime provides analytics on the impact of Covid-19 on real estate showings. In March, showings plummeted. However, in mid-April, they started to shoot back up. When thrust into shut-down mode, there was panic and uncertainty. But as time has gone by, we’re learning how to more comfortably deal with the challenges with safety in mind. The reality is people still need homes. People still need to find homes when relocating. Life goes on. And we’re adapting to the rules and regulations as they change.

Homeowner Equity

Another important factor is the percentage of homeowner equity. If you have no mortgage, you will probably be calmer about current financial challenges and uncertainty and be more willing to spend. However, if you have a high debt to equity ratio, things will be tighter and you’ll probably have to hold back on spending. 42% of homeowners in the United States have no mortgage. 58% of all homes in America have at least 60% equity. And the average equity of mortgaged homes is $177,000. These stats show that homeownership offers many Americans some financial stability.

Years for the unemployment rate to return to the pre-crisis level

More Depth, Less Length

National and Local Stats on Units Sold & Average Sales Price

On the national level, the chart shows existing home sales for March (pre-COVID). At that point, home sales were a little lower than the previous few years. Prices were on an upward trend pre-COVID. The months’ supply of inventory is showing a seller’s market, with the lack of inventory available.

What is especially interesting is what is going on in Orange County, NY versus Sussex County, NJ. These are bordering counties in different states, with different COVID regulations. In New York, realtors cannot physically show homes to buyers. In New Jersey, they can. Sales in Orange County have plummeted. April numbers were substantially lower than in previous years. However,  average sales price was not impacted. In Sussex, April was a good month. They held firm as far as units sold. And prices are continuing to rise.

“Housekeeping” Details:

Housekeeping Details for May 2020 Green Team Realty Housing Market Update

To reach any of the May 2020 Housing Market Update panelists,

Green Team Realty May 2020 Housing Market Update

 

 

1st Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders

1st Quarter 2020 Sales Leaders

Congratulations From Geoff Green, President Of Green Team Realty, To Our 1st Quarter Sales Leaders

I am pleased to announce our 1st Quarter Sales Leaders for 2020. They are Jennifer DiCostanzo of our Warwick Office, and Barbara Tesa of our Vernon Office. 2020 started out strong, giving us all high hopes for a very successful year. Then towards the end of the 1st quarter, everything changed. Normally, I’d be photographed presenting an award to each quarterly sales leader. However, while I can’t congratulate them in person, I can do so here.

Once again Jennifer tops the production charts. Her work ethic is second to none and it shows. Jen is a tremendous Realtor who we are extremely grateful to call a Green Teamer!

Barbara is the consummate professional. Always responsive, always learning, and always producing. We are extremely fortunate to have Barbara as part of our team.

Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty and Barbara Tesa of Green Team New Jersey Realty

Jennifer DiCostanzo and Barbara Tesa at Green Team 2019 Awards Ceremony

 

Jennifer DiCostanzo, Green Team New York Realty

Jennifer DiCostanzo is no stranger to the Sales Leader Award. She has received the Yearly Sales Award each year since joining Green Team in 2015.  Jen received the MVP Award in 2017 for more than $10 Million in Sales. Then again, in 2019, for more than $12 Million in Sales. Jen attributes her success to caring about her clients, working hard, and constantly learning. By keeping informed, she is best able to serve her clients to the best of her ability. Even in the midst of a pandemic. 

With the challenges presented by COVID19, Jen has shared relevant information and resources with the community. She has written columns published in local newspapers. Jen feels it is important for people to understand their options. And that can range from mortgage forbearance to understanding current restrictions.  Further, she has advocated on behalf of local organizations needing help and support as they give help and support to the community.

Jen’s thoughts on Covid19’s impact on real estate transactions

We began the first quarter off with a very strong market. Then suddenly overnight  COVID  changed every aspect of our lives. We had to immediately customize business practices and protocols.   However, even though we are in a climate of social distancing, real estate needs are very much a priority and at the forefront of keeping the economy stable and on track.   And by implementing cutting edge technologies, we are able to handle complex real estate market operations.

Stepping off of 2020 1st quarter has fueled stronger client relationships. We have had to seamlessly accelerate to virtual and remote platforms. And by doing so have transitioned both home buyers and sellers safely during a COVID market.

This is truly an essential time for both buyers and sellers to evaluate options and their own financial stability. It’s also an essential time to work with experts who understand the changing requirements and regulations that impact the decision to buy or sell a home.  Now, more than ever, it is vital to work with real estate professionals, from your agent, lenders, attorneys and home inspectors, who are familiar with local regulations, safety concerns, etc. to make sure that your transaction proceeds on track and safely, with as little stress as possible. However, setting a level of expectation is vital so you can easily adapt to COVID timing factors. They have also been adjusted with remote and limited staff in all business platforms, from local, municipal and state agencies, and may indeed require more patience.  It’s important to remember they are also working through COVID conditions as well.

Barbara Tesa, Green Team New Jersey Realty

Barbara Tesa is also no stranger to the Sales Leader Award,  She received the award for the 3rd and 4th Quarters of 2017.  Barbara also received the Captain’s Club Award for 2019, with between $3 and 5 Million in sales. Further, she received the New Jersey Realtors Circle of Excellence Award for 2017, 2018, and 2019.   When Barbara joined Green Team New Jersey Realty, she brought with her an extensive resume. She has 20+ years of experience in residential and commercial real estate management. And she has been a successful, licensed real estate agent in New Jersey for 11 years now. Barbara’s motto is, “YOUR Property… MY Priority!” Which is fitting, because it’s important to her that her clients feel confident their interests are top priority throughout a transition.

 

Barbara’s thoughts on Covid19’s impact on real estate transactions

The beginning of the quarter started off strong with a very active January/February and early March. It felt like buyers and sellers had a lot of confidence in the market on both sides. Then, the uncertainty of real estate in COVID-19 times gave buyers and sellers a pause in mid-March. However, it seems to have been only temporary because buyers have remained active with their searches, their desire to see homes in person, and their desire to move. And sellers still want to sell.

We are just doing things a little differently now, taking every precaution with clients under social distancing guidelines when entering properties, meeting for home inspections, and right through to closing a transaction. People are still on the move and we will keep them moving as smoothly as possible. Despite COVID-19, based on the activity I’ve been seeing in the last 3-4 weeks, I’m looking forward to a robust remainder of the year. I am finding that people still want to move on with their plans, so the determination is there in the market.

April 2020 Housing Market Update

April 2020 Housing Market Update

Covid19 has caused economic turmoil, health crises and uncertainty. However, a historical perspective may help us manage emotions and enable us to see what is happening in the housing market and navigate it accordingly. Below is a recording of the Housing Market Update as well as a summary of the most important discussion points.

 

 

 

 

 

National – Historical Perspective

 

Will this be like 2008, the start of the great recession?

 

The Housing Market was greatly impacted at that time because it was the catalyst that caused the Great Recession. Home price changes during last 5 recessions indicate that recessions do not necessarily impact the housing market. In 3 of the last 5 recessions, housing markets actually increased.

 

Home Price Change during Last 5 Recessions

 

Housing and Mortgage Crash

 

In 2007, 2008 and 2009, the annual home price depreciation was significant. However, at the time we were dealing with sub-prime lending, etc.  However, looking further back, to the Dot.com crash and 9/11 market crash, there was a significant S&P 500 stock market correction. Yet prices in the housing market continued to increase. There were good fundamentals in place.April 2020 Green Team Realty Housing Market Update

 

Annual Home Price Appreciation

 

In any marketplace, you have to look at overall values. Are assets undervalued or overvalued? With the run-up to 2008, from 2000 to 2005, there were major price increases year over year. 6.5% was the lowest increase, with the highest being 12.5%. However, since 2014, 6.4% has been the highest increase. We haven’t gone back to those major subprime lending issues that happened before.

 

April 2020 Green Team Realty Housing Market Update

 

Mortgage Credit Availability and Affordability 

 

The Great Recession required mortgage industry restructuring. That, in turn, led to qualified buyers not being able to borrow. This time around, it’s a different landscape. We don’t have a subprime lending bubble in the residential housing market. Loans will be processed for good buyers with good credit. Mortgage requirements are tightening a bit, but not to an unreasonable level. Another analytic compares total home equity cashed out in the years 2005-2007 and 2017-2019. People were using their homes “like ATMs” during the former period.  The leverage people are putting on their homes has dropped from $824 Billion during 2005-2007 to $232 Billion during 2017-2019. 53.8% of all homes in America have at least 50% equity.

 

The percentage of median income needed to purchase a median-priced home has dropped from 25.4% in 2006 to 14.8% today. Affordability is in much better shape, largely due to mortgage rates being very low.

 

The Impact of Unemployment

 

Concerns about job losses are very real. A breakdown of the April 3 Unemployment Report shows the different sectors affected. 59.5% are from restaurant services and drinking places. The accommodation industry, retail trade, temporary help services, child daycare workers, health care office workers and construction workers make up most of the balance. In other words, these are jobs that should be coming back as soon as these businesses can operate again. It may take some time until people are confident and comfortable enough to get back out there. The next numbers come out on May 8, 2020 and will be discussed during the May HMU.

 

Unemployment rates and home sales do not seem to have a direct relationship. Current Unemployment Rates were compared to past financial crises. In 1933, during the Great Depression, unemployment rates were at a high of 24.9%. Goldman Sachs is predicting unemployment to be 15% in 2020. They are also predicting that number to go down to 6-8% in 2021, 5% in 2022 and 4% in 2023.

 

Based on data from the US Department of Labor accessed by Haver Analysis, the current employment situation is more like a natural disaster than a recession. The problem is how long this natural disaster, Covid19, is going to last. There are many unknowns, and no answers. We’ll be tracking what happens as parts of the economy reopen.

 

Historical look at Existing Home Sales Price

 

The market was hot the first two months of 2020, with average home sale price higher in January and February than those months in the preceding four years. It will be interesting to see what the numbers show over the next several months.

 

April 2020 Housing Market Update Green Team Realty

 

The above analytic shows Existing Home Sales Prices from January 1999 to January 2020. Even if you bought at the peak of 2007 or 2008, as Geoff did, just before the housing market plunged, it took 8 years for the market to recover. Historically speaking, people moved after an average of 6 years. That number is now inching up to 9 years. The average homeowner generally doesn’t buy or sell during a period of up or down. They want to wait and gain equity in their home. However, if you are not going to buy, what will you do? Rent?  If so, you’re not building equity, you’re not getting tax write-offs, and other benefits of home ownership.

 

Inventory

 

In 2007, there were 8.2 months of inventory.  Right now there are 3.1 months of inventory available. The market is much hotter now than in 2007 (leading into the Great Recession). Geoff believes that now is a very good time to buy, and not a bad time to sell, either, as inventory levels are so low. Historically, 6 months of supply is an average market. We are now down to 3 months of inventory. He does not see this number climbing anytime soon. Many sellers are not putting their homes on the market now, wanting to wait and see what will be happening. And, while people have to weigh their options, the low inventory can benefit those putting their home on the market.

 

April 2020 Local Stats

 

Orange & Sussex Counties

 

In Orange County, Units Sold were actually better in March than in February. Average Sales Price was way up. In Sussex County, Units Sold and Average Sales Price both coming out at a good solid pace. It will be interesting to see what the stats reflect when we take a look at our next Housing Market Update. At that time we’ll see the impact of Covid closures and stay-at-home regulations.

 

Housekeeping Items

 

Green Team Realty Housing Market Update

 

Panel Discussion

 

Geoff Green was joined by Ken Flood of Quest Financial Services and Ken Aulicino of Family First Funding LLC. Vikki Garby and Carol Buchanan of Green Team New York Realty and Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty represented the real estate agents’  points of view. Discussion ranged from the current state of commercial and residential real estate markets. There was positive feedback on how agents are adapting to the Covid19 regulations and are still able to assist clients and close deals. All three agents spoke of strong, serious buyer interest. Ken Flood discussed the financial market and Ken Aucilino the mortgage industry. Because of the wealth of information and graphics as well as the fascinating panel discussion, it is highly recommended that you watch the webinar. Click here to view the April 2020 Housing Market Update.

 

Remember to sign up below for the next Housing Market Update 

Resources for Covid-19 –  for Family, Home and You

Resources for Covid-19 – for Family, Home and You

We are living in times that are unlike anything any of us have seen before. In the midst of a pandemic, home is now the place we shelter in. Whether we live alone or with family, our homes are where many of us spend most of our time. Schools are closed, as are non-essential businesses. Essential workers are putting themselves at risk just by doing their jobs, and we can’t thank them enough. Those of us sheltering in place are trying to do our part to keep the virus from spreading. Maintaining social distancing, we wave across the street to neighbors, FaceTime with relatives and friends. The health and well-being of those we love is our highest priority, even as we may struggle with stress, financial and emotional challenges. Here are some resources we’ve found to help get through these times.

Dealing with stress and anxiety

Photo by Photo by Ben White on UnsplashThe CDC has important information on coping with stress and anxiety in daily life due to Covid-19. And Realsimple.com has some great ideas on how to stress less. Even though this is called a two-week plan, there are ideas you can use any time. Of course, kids experience stress, too. So here’s info from pbs.org on how you and your kids can de-stress during coronavirus. Childmind.org provides tips for supporting teenagers and young adults during the coronavirus crisis.

Managing Financial Stress

There is no denying the stress that comes with loss of income. And with so much uncertainty as to when it will be safe to return to work, that stress is exacerbated. Goodtherapy.com shares a blog post about how to cope with income loss and financial stress during Covid 19Verywellmind.com shares advice on managing financial anxiety surrounding coronavirus.

Essential Employees

Strive Global shares strategies for anxiety and stress relief for essential workers.

Working from home

Photo by Photo by JESHOOTS.COM on Unsplash

Many of us are fortunate to be telecommuting these days. However, working from home comes with its own challenges.  Wirecutter offers advice on how to work from home with kids.   Real Simple gives you some tips on creating a makeshift home officeAnd Psychology Today provides productivity tips for working home under quarantine.

Take some time to boost your tech or other skills with free online classes. CIO provides a list of free online tech courses to take while you quarantineClass Central has a catalog of Free Online Learning Due to Coronavirus. And it’s updated continuously.

You can’t spend all your time working. Billboard shares links to Livestream and Virtual Concerts to Watch During the Coronavirus Crisis.

 

 

Spring Clean… and then redecorate with what you have

Photo by Photo by Francesca Tosolini on Unsplash

Of course no April blog post would be complete without a mention of the annual tradition called Spring Cleaning. However, buzzfeed.com changes things up a little, giving us tips for cleaning now that we’re home and may have more time. So, here are 29 Easy Ways to Keep your Space Clean and 65 Things in Your Home to Clean while Quarantined. While doing your spring cleaning, you might also want to try some of these surprising things to clean with vodka, from bhg.com.

Sheltering-in-place may find you wanted to change up your surroundings a little. A few websites we found provide some tips on decorating and redecorating – without leaving home. Housebeautiful.com suggests that you rearrange furniture as a way to redecorate for free. In addition, housebeautiful.com has ideas on making your bedroom more relaxing during these stressful times. Bhg.com has 23 totally free ways to decorate with what you have. And realsimple.com helps you to decorate your home without leaving your house.

Don’t forget to start taking care of the exterior of your home, too. Realsimple.com has some ideas on getting your yard ready for summer now.  And don’t forget your car! AAA Northeast has some good advice. If you can’t drive your car, clean it!  AAA also advises that you keep your car maintained during a driving hiatus.

 

Teaching and Having Fun with the Kids

Photo by Photo by Irina Murza on Unsplash

Housebeautiful.com has 23 creative ways to entertain your kids at home. And, if you’re in need of a little magic, wizardingworld.com introduces Harry Potter at HomeLivescience.com shares activities and online resources for homebound Kids: A coronavirus guideNew Jersey Family has Free Resources to Keep the Kids Learning and Entertained During Coronavirus Shutdown Forbes.com shares 101+ Ideas to Keep Your Kids Busy during Coronavirus Closures.

Harpercollins.com has an extensive At Home Resource for Kids and Family during Coronavirus 2020. And take your high school kids on some of the virtual college tours listed here by AAA Northeast.

Guide to Grocery Shopping and Cooking

Photo by Photo by Kelly Sikkema on Unsplash

Grocery shopping these days seems like an episode of the Twilight Zone. We’re all wearing Face Masks, whether employees or customers.  Here’s a Guide to Face Masks from the New York Times. BGH.com has advice on grocery shopping during coronavirus

Once you’ve navigated the grocery store and safely unpacked your groceries, here are some recipes to try. Southernliving.com has spring crock pot recipies. And bhg.com has some quick and easy dinners from pantry staples you can make.

And, if baking is a stress reliever for you, try these 56 Healthy Baking Recipes from popsugar.com.  

 

 

Stay safe, stay healthy, stay strong.

 

 

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