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March 2019 Housing Market Update

March 2019 Housing Market Update

Green Team Realty’s March 2019 Housing Market Update was presented live on Facebook Tuesday, March 19 at 2 p.m.  If you were unable to view the webinar live, you can watch at your convenience by clicking here.  Sign up for future updates here.

 

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, gave a breakdown of both national and local statistics:

 

National Statistics

 

 

This is a 3-year comparison, 2017-2019. The later the year, the darker the color.  January shows a decline in 2018 and 2019.  In August, things started to turn in year over year increases.

 

 

The Northeast is still chugging along, though usually the northeast market lags. However, on the whole, pending home sales are down, region by region.

 

 

As far as pricing goes, this is a composite of the top 20 cities in the US. Over the last 10 months and pricing is steadily decreasing. However, it’s more of a soft landing. There is nothing indicative of a “crash.” Historical norms are around 3.6% and we’re around that mark, with 4.2%.

On the mortgage side, here is an average of four entities making projections of where rates will be in 2019. They are projecting that rates will continue to increase, below 5%. Geoff feels this is historically a very low rate.  While some in the mortgage industry are projecting a decline in refinancing, money for the resale and construction markets seem to be in good shape.

Local Statistics

Orange County, New York

 

In the year over year comparisons, we’re at or below the last few years, but still hanging in there. However, we’re not in an increasing market.

 

Last year we were in the red all year long.  While the stats show year over year increases, this was not our highest February.

 

The asked to sold ratio, the last asking price versus what homes are selling for, took a dip in February but it’s easy to see that year over year we continue to see an increase.

Days in market still indicate a hot market, being lower than any of the previous years shown.

 

Sussex County, New Jersey

 

Units sold are down, below 2017 levels.

 

Average price, however, is increasing. We may actually be seeing further increases in price in Sussex, something we didn’t see much of last year.

 

Numbers here are similar to those we saw in Orange County, around 96 to 97%.

 

The numbers indicate this is still a hot market.

 

Pinellas County, FL

This month we’re also taking a look at the local market in Pinellas County, Florida.

 

Year over year stats for January 2019 over 2018 show a wide variation. While the number of closed sales decreased by 13%, prices increased by that same percentage.

ARE SENIOR HOUSEHOLDS REALLY CAUSING HOUSING SHORTAGE?

 

Ali Chamois of Homestead Funding Corp. shared this information with Geoff about the impact of people aging in place. Prior to the Good Times Cohort (those born between 1931 and 1941), people moved out of their houses at a much faster rate.

 

Exhibit 2 breaks down the number of housing units by age group and shows that 115,200 housing units would have been supplied to the market by respondents aged 68 to 75; 379,200 by respondents aged 76 to 80; and 601,500 by respondents aged 81 to 85.

A similar calculation for the War Babies and Baby Boomers estimate that an additional 550,000 homes were held off the market by these cohorts by 2018, as shown in Exhibit 3.

In total, it’s estimated that there were around 1.6 million housing units held off the market by those three cohorts as of 2018. This amounts to 2.1 percent of total owner-occupied housing units in the United States as of 2018.

Meet this month’s panelists:

 

 

 

 

 

 

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, is our moderator. Laura Marie of Keller Williams, St. Petersburg, Florida joined the panel as a special guest. Keren Gonen of Green Team New Jersey Realty, Vikki Garby of Green Team New York Realty and Ali Chamois, Homestead Funding.Corp.who joined the conversation by phone, rounded up the panel.

Geoff opened the discussion by introducing Keren Gonen, who has been a panelist every month. Her feeling has been it’s going to be a strong market in 2019, but that the inventory shortage is still happening; not as many foreclosures, etc.  Geoff asked if she is still in this same mindset?  Keren replied “Absolutely!”  Properties are not being released by banks, who are flipping them themselves. Housing shortage has more to do with number of units going down than buyer demand. Sellers are still sitting on houses, waiting to see how strong the spring market will be.

Vikki Garby joined the conversation, saying much is the same in Orange County. Inventory problem is still out there. Buyers are out there. Properties in good condition, priced right, are going quickly. Investors, experienced flippers and new flippers, are trying to find properties. More REO’s are hitting the market and are going quickly, the ones not being done by the banks. Flippers are out and scooping them out.

Laura Marie saw many similarities with Pinellas County, FL. There were 11 short sales and 31 REOs total for Jan. Ones being sold are not much under market. Still hardcore investors are looking for the right deal. The margins have shrunk… To get ahead of the market you have to get off market. A huge amount of fixer uppers. Investors not wanting to purchase some of these homes because of cost of materials, etc. Pinellas County was developed between 1920 and 1960. Buyers are looking for updated, polished, shiny homes.

Geoff asked Ali if she agreed with the projections for the average 30 year fixed mortgage. Ali brought up that for Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, rates are based on downpayment and credit scores. These factors impact the rate. Regarding projections, clients ask whether they should lock in rates or hold off… Ali never advises them on that because forecasts and predictions can change due to a variety of causes. Geoff said that Freddie Mac is much tougher now, which may be holding the market steady. There is not a lot of subprime lending. Because not a lot of defaults are happening, credit isn’t tightening up. Ali sees a little loosening up on credit standards.

Regarding Aging in Place, Geoff sees this happening within his own family. Ali stated that overall health is better, support systems are better. People don’t want to leave their homes. The current trend is to provide outpatient services for health care. Per Keren, people are living a lot longer.  It seems that we do need more houses. There are also people moving in with other generations.

Parents, adult children and grandchildren, living as extended families. The US is transforming.  Laura seeing the same thing in Florida.  Downsizing, 55+ communities also allow people to have independence – but less yard care. Vikki said that we have more 2 income families. Grandparents often help with childcare instead of relocating, then kids are taking care of the parents as they age.

THANKS TO OUR SPONSOR…

Green Team Realty’s Housing Market Updates are sponsored by REALLY – Better, Smarter, Faster. A real estate referral network for agents. Learn more at ReallyHQ.com

NEXT HOUSING MARKET UPDATE: TUESDAY APRIL 16 AT 2PM

Stay informed – Sign up for our Housing Market Updates at GreenTeamHQ.com/HMU

 

 

Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 2018 Circle of Excellence Award Recipients

Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 2018 Circle of Excellence Award Recipients

From left to right: Ann Nussberger, Charles Nagy, Kristi Anderson, Theodore Van Laar, Barbara Tesa, Alison Miller, Joyce Rogers, Keren Gonen

 

Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 2018 Circle of Excellence Award Recipients

With eight of its sales associates receiving the New Jersey Realtors®  Bronze Circle of Excellence Award, GTNJR couldn’t be prouder!  The recipients are: Kristi Anderson, Keren Gonen, Alison Miller, Charles Nagy, Ann Nussberger, Joyce Rogers, Barbara Tesa and Theodore Van Laar. And they happily displayed the awards which recognized their hard work and achievement.

Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, was in attendance at the April 4 Awards Luncheon. “What makes the number of Award recipients especially outstanding is that it represents almost half of the associates in our Vernon office. It also represents an upwards trend from six Circle of Excellence Award recipients in 2017. I fully expect to see the number of recipients continue to rise.”  Kimberly Lasalandra, Broker Manager of Green Team’s Vernon office was also on hand to support the recipients. “Since we first opened our doors in 2016, we have been attracting dedicated, hardworking real estate professionals who share a common goal of providing excellent customer service.  Having so many recipients of the Circle of Excellence Award proves that the systems we have in place and the people we attract are a formula for success. I look forward to seeing how many recipients we have in 2019!”

What the award means…

According to its website, “New Jersey Realtors® is proud to have members who are experts in their fields, advocates in their communities and leaders amongst their peers. Throughout the year, New Jersey Realtors® honors the accomplishments of select members through prestigious awards.” Further, “The NJ Realtors® Circle of Excellence® Sales Award® recognizes those members who have demonstrated excellence in the field of salesmanship.” 

Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar – 2019 1st Quarter Sales Leaders for Green Team New Jersey Realty

Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar – 2019 1st Quarter Sales Leaders for Green Team New Jersey Realty

The Dynamic Duo does it again!

Charles Nagy & Ted Van Laar are 2019 1st Qtr Sales Leaders

Green Team President, Geoffrey Green, presents the 2019 1st Quarter Sales Leader Award to Ted Van Laar and Charles Nagy

 

Last year, Charles Nagy and Theodore Van Laar were Green Team New Jersey Realty’s 2nd Quarter, 4th Quarter and Yearly Sales Leaders. Now the team is starting off 2019 in a big way, as 1st Quarter Sales Leaders. When Geoff Green first called Charlie and Ted the Dynamic Duo, no one really knew just how much they would live up to their new nickname.

According to Geoff, “Charlie and Ted are without a doubt top performers. These two gentlemen continue to achieve top production results amongst their formidable peers. Not only do they produce at a high level, they are seasoned professionals who have great knowledge about the Real Estate industry which they share with each and every client. Green Team New Jersey Realty is very proud to have Charlie and Ted working with our Agency.”

What makes them dynamic as a duo?

These equity partners in Green Team New Jersey Realty come from diverse real estate backgrounds. However, together they form a productive, successful team. They are united by their love of resort properties and resort living. Charlie and Ted have been recipients of the Circle of Excellence Award multiple times between 2014 and 2018. The award requires minimum sales of $2.5 million and 15 transactions to qualify. And, in 2018, they also became part of the Green Team’s President’s Club. The President’s Club honors those associates with $5 to $10 Million in sales volume.

 

Charlie is the designated spokesman for the team, and had the following to say: “Going forward it will be increasingly more difficult for Ted and me to maintain the top of the leaderboard, thanks to all of the competition in the GTNJR office. But we will continue our efforts to compete hard for the top spot. However, it will also be our pleasure to see one of our co-agents take it away, should that be the case. The TEAM before the individual is our motto!”

 

Vikki Garby – 1st Quarter Sales Leader for Green Team New York Realty

Vikki Garby – 1st Quarter Sales Leader for Green Team New York Realty

 

Geoffrey Green, President of Green Team Realty, presents Vikki Garby with the 1st Quarter Sales Leader Award for 2019

 

Vikki Garby is Green Team New York Realty’s 1st Quarter Sales Leader for 2019

Green Team New York Realty is proud to announce that Vikki Garby is the 1st Quarter Sales Leader.  According to Geoff Green, President of Green Team Realty, “Vikki Garby is a very smart and focused Real Estate professional. She is establishing herself as a true leader in the Orange County Real Estate marketplace. Vikki’s analytical abilities have served her well in both Residential and Commercial Real Estate. And both are contributors to her sales success. It’s going to be exciting to watch Vikki grow her Real Estate business. We are extremely blessed to have her as part of our Agency.”

About Vikki…

Prior to entering the world of real estate, Vikki worked for a major bank in New York City as an investment banker. There she reviewed and negotiated complex contracts on a regular basis. During that time, she became a real estate investor, negotiating her own transactions as a buyer. And her love of real estate and skill at navigating its many transactional parts, lead her to obtain her license so that she could help others with their real estate needs.  In addition, Vikki has received her Commercial Investment Real Estate Certification. And this further enhances her ability to assist real estate investors and commercial clients.

Vikki had the following to say:  “I appreciate this recognition very much. Success in this business is achieved by chugging away every day to help our clients as best we can. Thank you to all my loyal clients for trusting in me and for referring me to your family and friends. You have helped me grow my business to what it is today and I am extremely grateful for that. The support, tools and resources I receive by being a part of Green Team New York Realty make my job that much easier and more rewarding!”

APRIL COME SHE WILL

APRIL COME SHE WILL

Paul Simon’s beautiful ode to the changing of the seasons seems like the appropriate theme song for this post. April has arrived, and with her come blooming trees and flowers and lush, green lawns. We’re greeted with the songs of birds in the morning, and the chirping of crickets after dark. And we are more than ready to shake off those winter blues and welcome Spring into our lives.

Clean for Spring…

For many, the arrival of spring is synonymous with deep cleaning.  Idreamofclean.net has the ultimate checklist. And, for those who may not dream of clean, check out Popsugar.com’s simpler checklist.

With a clean, fresh canvas, you’re ready to accessorize and make changes that bring the outdoors in. Decoraid.com shares spring decorating trends for 2019. And, while you’re bringing the outdoors in, Housebeautiful.com shares some house plants that can help you get a good night’s sleep.

Take it outside…

As the weather gets warmer, we spend more and more time outdoors. Now is the perfect time to create the outside living space of your dreams. So Housebeautiful.com has ideas to inspire amazing backyard escapes. Furthermore, kids need their own space to escape to. And homebnc.com has some great ideas for play areas.  Furthermore, it’s great when adults and kids can work together on projects for the home.  These DIY projects will enhance your garden while you have fun!  

Celebrate Earth Day…

The first Earth Day celebration took place on April 22, 1970, 49 years ago!  To learn more, click here.

An Earth Day Celebration will be held at the Outdoor Discovery Center at Hudson Highlands Nature Museum in Cornwall on Saturday, April 27, from 11 a.m. to 3 p.m. Activities are designed for family fun and learning. They include nature play, storytelling and puppetry, interactive games and activities, music, hay rides, a community art project and more. And the celebration kicks off with a Hike-a-Thon at 9 a.m.!

Vernon Earthfest 2019 will take place on Sunday, April 28 from 11 a.m. to 4 p.m. at Heaven Hill Farm and Garden Center. With live music throughout the day, there will also be face painting, gem mining, and a showcase of photography by local high school students and artwork by local elementary students. In addition, presenters include the Delaware Valley Raptor Center, Honeybees and the Environment, Snakes ‘n Scales (and Scary Critters) and Eyes of the Wild (Unusual Animals).  Visit the website for details.

Earth Fest Warwick will be held on Saturday, May 4 and Sunday, May 5. There will be several events going on at Stanley Deming Park. The 3rd Annual Too Good to Toss community swap celebrates re-use, repair, and re-creating!  Treecycle, hosted by local artists and makers, welcomes you to join in hands-on re-purposing and up-cycling, a bike check-up clinic, music, dance, food, information and more!

DIY Projects for Earth Day… and everyday!

Of course everyday is Earth Day, and GoodAirGeeks.com has lots of DIY ideas for projects for adults, kids, schools, community service and more.  And if you’d like some more ideas, there is always Pinterest to provide you with lots of earth-friendly projects.